Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.
The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.
The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.
UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).
News Corporation is a set of communicating vessels. One only has to look at the support of the over 150 News editors worldwide that sang from the same song sheet in their support of the Iraq War. It is therefore not credible to think that methods that have been applied successfully over time, such as phone-hacking or illegal payments to police, in one arm of the corporation have not been propagated to the other arms of the organisation.
As I said a couple of days ago…even the R/Wingnut trolls on Twitter aren’t taking the faux ALP leadership speculation seriously…
I really don’t get it as far as the MSM goes…can’t see any point in mindlessly writing endless leadership crap…can’t believe their paying customers appreciate their indepth analysis of their own belly buttons…
It’s a complete mystery to me… *bewildered emoticon*
Sprocket
Given the unadulterated bile coming from most the Murdoch papers here, I wouldn’t be at all surprised. I wish the Govt would open a UK-style parliamentary enquiry here. I’m sure there are grounds for it.
BK
Thanks, as always, to the link to Mike Carlton. What a voice of reason that man is. I wrote to the PM some time ago saying that it was high time we were out of there and pointing out the futility of it all, given that the British invaded 3(?) times, the Russians once, the US led coalition now – all to naught.
I have had no response to my letter.
The country is as corrupt as its neighbour Pakistan and throughout history has been a feudal society of inter-tribal warfare. I fear it will be ever thus and I pity the poor citizens who just want to go about their daily lives in peace and without fear. No wonder so many of them want to flee.
Like Mike Carlton, I find the platitudes from both sides of politics about our “heroes” sickening and hollow – please note I am not critical of those men, I grieve for their families and the senseless loss of life – but we should not be there. This could drag on for another 10 years and still the people of Afghanistan will be no closer to freedom and democracy than they are now. Too many people have died already.
My say
Very best wishes for your daughter and family. What a worrying time it must have been for you all. Stay strong (but I have a sneaky suspicion that that is just what you are – a caring and strong woman!). Your family is very lucky.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/11362769/australia-to-host-2014-g20-summit/
Looks as though the seniorAAP) writer accepts there will be no “early” election in Australia and even JG will be PM in 2014?
By the way could someone link me to what Paul Kelly said about an extra 2 to 3 points to ALP in Newspoll? Isn’t it still being polled?
mari,
The only reference I have seen is the in the tweet mentioned in post #220. It may be in the article by Kelly which is behind The Australian’s paywall.
Oh dear. Having read Mike Carlton’s article as recommended by BK, I saw a link to an article at the side and foolishly clicked onto it – “Gillard flies ever so slightly higher despite the Qantas crisis”.
I didn’t see until too late that it was from 4/11 and written by Michelle Grattan. What a load of tosh, containing gems such as:
It’s only 9.00am up here but is it too early for a gin and tonic do you think? I need something to wash my mouth out.
Hello my say. Glad to hear grandson is doing well and daughter has plenty of support. Sending plenty of warm vibes your way.
I’ve 4 Tassie landscapes that remind me to send you vibes: 2 in the kitchen of Lake St Clair /Cradle Mt (both from weird angles, and from OpShops). 1 el cheapo auction find of the little waterfall and cascade (lots of superb rocks) behind the house Lloyd Rees’s academic son lived in in Launceston (LR wrote a wonderful description of it). Soon as I saw it I thought, “I know you. I’ve seen you. I’m sure I know all about you.” (Seems unsigned, but the frame’s inner edge covers over 1cm of the painting: I’ve still not taken it and the backing off). Took ages to remember why. The last, also OpShop & unsigned (oddly, when you get up close) on maroon velvet, prob Deco period) a twilight view of the Walls of Jerusalem, with the lookout and walls eye- catchingly well done from the angle what you’d get from what’s now the lookout car park across the valley to the walls (as in http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/travel/on-the-way-to-herods-gate-20100827-13v39.html)
OH and I were/are great “ratters”, during our Oz & OS travels calling in at OpShops, crowded, down-at-heel “antique” centres & auction sales; stopping at every jumble sale, trash & treasure mart. That’s where I buy my touristy souvenirs, esp landscapes painted before coloured film was invented. Now most are closed because people now sell their T&T on ebay.
Brekkie champers – hold the orange juice?
Vanity Fair article on the House of Murdoch:
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/murdoch-kids-201112
@Allan/257,
Soap ?
jk.
Tea/Coffee ?
If you are a political tragic then there is a must-read article by Kate Legge in the ‘Australian Magazine’ on Peta Credlin.
Five pages long. There are some facinating insights, deliberate or by accident. Ms Credlin refused to be interviewed for the piece.
For me the most interesting bit is that there is not a sentence on Ms Credlin’s social, environmental or economic values. There is not a sentence on her vision for Australia. It’s as if she is content-free.
OTOH, there is plenty of stuff on Ms Credlin’s relationship with power, access to others’ power and her wielding power.
morning bludgers
my say
Pleased to know your daughter and baby grandson are back in Tassie. All the very best to you all.
Article on the PM at the G20
http://www.news.com.au/business/julia-gillard-barack-obama-g20-summit-special-relationship/story-e6frfm1i-1226185248551
Morning all. Thanks to Leroy for the link to the Oakes article. The ‘attack dog’ Abbott cartoon, looking wondrously feral, is a cracker.
Oakes made good comment about our ‘loan’ to the IMF, which will earn interest, and ridiculed Abbott and Hockey for their stupidity. It’s made a good start to my day.
Boerwar
Is Peta, Abbott’s sidekick?
Gillard might get until March, and the Greens’ suggestion on the pokies could get the heat off her within the party on the issue.
It seemed like a good idea when it was first floated – the general $1 upper limit per play. It would immediately take the wind out of the clubs’ sails, and the whole campaign of “Who voted for a licence to punt” crap would immediately be redendant at the clubs themselves.
Link to Coorey’s article for 266:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pokies-deal-may-hand-reprieve-to-gillard-20111104-1n02g.html
scarpat
Appreciate the link to vanity fair piece. I have bookmarked it for reading later in the day
Sheldon gets another opportunity to wind Abetz up after stone walling him so well in Estimates.
Allan Moyes
I stopped reading Grattan, Carney and Hartcher a while ago. I now wait for BB to provide us with his dissections of their contributions.
mysay – check your email box
Boerwar:
I have read a few years ago the same kind of assessment of Credlin. Same as her husband.
confessions
I wont be watching. Judging by the bludgers here, sky has gone feral over the past few weeks in their anti govt tirade.
Btw I watched replay on APAC when Sheldon appeared before the senate committee. He did very well. The main takeaway for me is that the TWU is primarily concerned that Qantas is trying to find a way to go offshore.
v
Ms Credlin is Mr Abbott’s chief of staff.
There is a bit of discussion in the article about who manages whom.
Link to the Credilin article.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/whos-the-boss/story-e6frg8h6-1226182439093
confessions
One of the interesting things is that Ms Credlin organised a muster of people to cold-call Ms Legge while she was writing the article. The object was to heap praise on Ms Credlin, of course.
Ms Legge names these: Mr Hunt, Mr Nelson, Mr Morrison, Mr Robb, Mr Brandis.
She worked well with Mr Nelson, so no surprise there. Mr Hunt is always happy to build up his credits. So that explains him. But the last three will give you a clear insight into what an Abbott government would really be like.
There’s another unintended story. Well, perhaps it was unintended.
Mr Abbott encouraged Mr Reith to run for the Liberal Party’s presidency. But Mr Loughnane and Ms Credlin did not support Mr Reith.
So, who did Mr Abbott end up voting for?
Boerwar
Has Credlin and Loughane more sway with Abbott than JBishop?
It’s a case of “A story. A story. My reputation for a story!”
Not that there aren’t stories aplenty out there. But the real ones lie in the nation’s and its current government’s outstanding successes, especially economically – all those areas in which we either lead the world, or are in second place – and in necessary fundamental reforms (Health, NBN, CP/ETS, MRRT, problem gambling, tobacco plain packaging etc). But there are several reasons why, with OpPolls as they have been, those stories are shunned.
The Canberra Press Gallery seems to have fallen in love with the endless destabilisation Feral Tony and his chosen Loudmouth Shadows offer; however I think the real reasons might lie deeper.
Since last election, and more so since Gov/PM OpPolls crashed, there’s been an unsettling possibility that Abbott might become PM; in which case, given his personality, track record & probable front bench, best they’re on his side if they value their careers.
But, given the OpPolls, the most threatening possible future is that Murdoch gets control of Australia Network; even worse that he can (if Abbott is PM) sack a Gillard-appointed ABC & SBS Chairs; creating a situation in which, with print media (esp Fairfax) in such decline, all those journos’ jobs may soon depend on Rupert Murdoch’s imprimatur.
Mark Kenny says that the RBA may have to rethink interest rates in light of EU crisis
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/eu-crisis-sparks-interest-rates-rethink/story-e6frea6u-1226186270482
this is funny
Craig who?
In his dreams
for all the policy discussions, leadership discussions and the like, if interest rates stay at this rate or go even lower, the public will be more inclined to support the govt. Go figure
More moving of the goal posts.
Her husband is Brian Loughnane, Liberal federal director.
While Abbott has a photo op at a lumber yard (which is threatened to close down due to carbon tax/pokie reform/mining tax/increased super/qantas IR etc), JG is being prime ministerial with a few extra meetings at the G20
Now Bill Gates is not quite Obama or the Queen, but he has a massive following amongst the geeks (and is a Republican).
Good morning bludgers. Magnificent day here in Melbourne. Must get ready and head off for a coffee and make the most of the sun.
Thanks for the many links posted throughout the morning – have bookmarked all and will read soon.
sprocket_
Even better is this news.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/8370261/australia-to-host-2014-g20
The government are hitting runs at the moment and the wheels are falling off the Coalition.
The media currently have four options:
1) praise the government;
2) criticise the opposition;
3) do both 1) and 2);
4) see lots of unicorns.
Now you’ve picked yourself up after ROTFL at options 1-3 you will understand why they are plumping for number 4.
Oz poll is it a photo, print or painting, I wonder who the artist is,
I have a peter clover, not. John, a few years old painted in the nile country,I felt the same way
Later I discovered it was so close to where the first of our family lived
Also 2 miles from evendale where my first aust, grand ma lived, she came from cornwall
If u like google john clover his
Son and u will see trafalgar the old family home
Then google peter glover his paintings are wonderful
Thank for your thought, I am off now to do my daily shift next to little George
I think why the journalists want change re leadership as they said it and cannot bare to be wrong
Well the should of thought of that first, Ibet they live there every moment thinking about it,
There promlem for not just enjoying what we have a great lady pm and leader
Boerwar:
This paragraph stands out for me:
Even in an article about Abbott’s CoS, former Liberals can’t resist taking a dig at Turnbull.
confessions
For all the issues within the Labor party, I am sure that there are more deep divisions within the coalition. That is why the polls are so important to them. If the polls go south for the coalition, watch the fireworks begin. I for one, cannot wait
Here we go again!
“Gillard might get until March” theme.
Not so long ago it was something like “She will be gone by…….” – pick any day, week, month in the future – and you can be sure your prediction will come true!
I think this boring mantra has come from the conservatives and their fellow travellers who turn up like dead leaves blown in the wind here on PB, ever since the election – what, 15 months ago?
Where are all the “Gone by Christmas…..” tea-leaf readers? Or as one wag here wrote in response – “Christmas 2020!”
It is axiomatic with a paper-thin majority, the current government will be under stress right until election day 2013 from this type of stuff.
The mischief makers from the Right are entitled to speculate about “leadership” as they are hoping Labor will, in fact, do something stupid, like toy with a change.
It is significant, that the “Gone by…” merchants are now nuancing their comments by the “Not and matter of if, but when and that could be……..boringly etc, etc…..”
We can’t be too precious here on PB, as every day, there is speculation about “Abbott being dumped”. I doubt whether either are likely in the near to mid future.
That is the beaut of it all. The conservatives have thrown everything they can at the government – including the discoloured kitchen sink – and as we approach the last few days of the parliamentary year, the government has had a very good couple of weeks, it looks as though the polls have definitely bottomed out AND Labor is still on its feet.
No wonder the conservatives are getting screecher by the moment and seeking something, anything to make their dreams come true.
my say
Check in email inbox.
musings
on the media
last night i tried to get onto #ohmikes show
first asked for name, then girl asked had i called before
was asked for a callback phone number and also why i had rung
interestingly i felt the call was being listened into because next minute another female voice came on and said i was not welcome on mikes show
Now fairs fair- this is proof that not only is the narrative of the MSM controlled- so are the responses
a 6.5 stars did get thru, and telling felt that there initial callin had been listened into as well
The MSM is scared- not of Labor as such, but the flodd of peeps wanting to debate them
twitter and da blogs are the only places where a diissenting voice to the MSM drivel gets out
be aware the seige mentality is driving the MSM circle jerk, to the point that their prognostications are becoming more and more ridiculous
the public have seen thru the miasma and are now sourcing their own opinions via said twitter and da blogs
In a perverse way the MSM are now doing labor a favour.
Despite the polling, I think Abbott knows what he’s doing. There’s a massive disjunct between his cosying up to big business (eg his refusal to criticise Qantas) and his walking tours of small businesses whining about the carbon tax. But he knows image trumps fact. He seems to able to bash unions, cry poor on behalf of mining companies and claim to represent workers all in the same breath – all without any shame, which is no mean feat. It’s up there with Hockey and Robb presuming to lecture the ALP over a well-functioning economy while unable to put together a budget reply without massive holes in it.
The difficulty for Abbott is that it’s not working for him any more, and he really has no alternative. He threw everything into negativism, based on the idea that it only needed to be a short-term strategy, late 2009 to late 2010.
The worst thing possible for him has now happened; ALP policy is working, and it’s starting to gain approval. Even if he wanted to put policy up against policy, he’s at least 18 months behind with no chance of catching up. And not only him, the whole party is stuck with that. Policy politics at this point in time represents a whole new direction for them, resetting the party to zero on the clock. They’re not equipped to do it the way they’re set up now.
confessions – that stands out for me. Turnbull causing trouble until it got to the stage where Nelson was done in. Then Minchin and Bernardi started on Turnbull and the divisions are still going on but not reported.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-04/papandreou-is-prepared-to-step-aside-if-he-wins-confidence-vote-in-greece.html
victoria:
Another stand out for me is:
And the earlier revelation that Loughnane desperately wants to win in 2013 so he doesn’t have a record with more election losses than wins. It says to me that Loughnane (and perhaps Credlin) are major sources of denial within the party as to why they lost in 2007 and 2010, and hence are stumbling blocks to the party renewing and refreshing.
Perhaps it’s fair to argue that for as long as both remain in such powerful positions in the Liberal party, it won’t win another election?
gusface
It is obvious to me what game the shockjocks are up to. Only the gullible hang on their every word. The morgan polls illustrates the situation. F2f polls are skewered against the govt. Obviously the meme is that anyone who supports the govt is supposed to be a dill. Therefore many are embarrassed to admit they support the govt. In fact in my own circle of acquaintances, we apologetically admit we support the govt. Why is that so?