Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  1. [ruawake

    Posted Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    PvO is full of it today. Julia’s future rests on Tuesdays Newspoll.

    Has he been reading Dennis’ notes on polling?
    ]

    [Peter van Onselen is a Winthrop professor at the University of Western Australia. ]

    Perhaps Bilbo should take a walk to his office and give him a huge whack with a clue stick.

  2. Doyley @ 63
    [Martin Ferguson spoke about the effects on the tourism sector in QT this week and I am sure we will hear more about this.

    This could be a very positive point of attack for the government especially as the PM promised at the jobs summit to release a employment policy statement for the tourism industry before Christmas.

    IR and jobs strategy for affected sectors of the economy. THe government looking after the workers while Abbott sides with QANTAS.

    I am sure the PM will be sending a Christmas card to QANTAS this year.]

    Well spotted, Doyley. My own intuitive feeling was that the collapse in Labor support in Queensland at the 2010 election had less to do with the Rudd-Gillard leadership woes (though these might have played a small part) than the economic conditions in Queensland at the time. It was one state not doing well then.

    Much of Australia survived the GFC without a hitch. But in Queensland it was a bit different, with the inbound tourism industry especially damaged by the GFC. Queensland is more dependent on that than any other state. It probably explained a higher than average unemployment.

    If Labor is addressing that now, they may have some chance of recovering support in Queensland in 2013. Infrastructure rebuilding post-disaster will also help.

  3. Good morning all.
    For what it’s worth, I think our PM and her team have finally shed the blanket of anger and doom the LOTO and his backers in msn threw over the them and now the electorate are seeing and hearing the message. Many of us out here in voterland have observed for some time now that the LOTO’s negativity had reached saturation point.

    IMO there hasn’t been just one issue that has turned the tide. I do think, however, think that the Royal visit and CHOGM played a large part in the perception that this woman with the big bum, big ear lobes, no fashion sense and unmarried, has somehow earned the respect of other world leaders and their beloved QEII appears to like her, is comfortable with her and even enjoys her company. The vibes emanating out of CHOGM and the Queen’s visit were so good that people felt them and it made them feel good as well.

  4. GD,

    The tourism industry has clearly been bashed senseless by the high dollar, poor global economic conditions and the weather. So, I imagine a reflexive attitude to somebody closing down the airline that would actually deliver those brave hardy tourists prepared to put those issues aside, would be expected.

    May indicate that the broader public are blaming Qantas mangement for the closedown and marking the Government up for getting the planes flying again so quickly.

  5. [I do think, however, think that the Royal visit and CHOGM played a large part in the perception that this woman with the big bum, big ear lobes, no fashion sense and unmarried, has somehow earned the respect of other world leaders and their beloved QEII appears to like her, is comfortable with her and even enjoys her company. ]

    You forgot “shankles”, which are (apparently) “lamb shank ankles (get it?), puffy ankles, “legs that go all the way to the feet” etc.

    Much merriment yesterday afternoon on 2GB’s Ben Fordham Show discussing how embarrassing Julia’s ankles were to the nation when they were captured on film at the G20. They got about 20 minutes out of it between 4.30-5.00pm.

    She should stick to pants suits, do more exercise, go on a diet and so on. This showed how lazy she is, or maybe sick, therefore not fit to be Prime Minister. John Howard didn’t have shankles, and Abbott certainly doesn’t. Shankles are really ugly and most unbecoming. It’s all one of the callers could see, so what hope does she have for getting policy out? Oh, that’s right, she doesn’t have any policies, so no harm done, probably. QED.

    One wag rang up saying it should be “skankles” because she was such a “lying skank”. Fordham at this point laughed in embarrassment and said “Please, please…” to the caller, but let it go through without further criticism.

    “GILLARD FAIL” just on the shankles alone, was the consensus.

  6. Morning all. This will be big news in QLD.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-to-open-wild-rivers-to-mining/story-e6freoof-1226186303639

    [Campbell Newman to open wild rivers to mining
    by: Brian Williams From: The Courier-Mail November 05, 2011 12:00AM

    THE Steve Irwin Reserve set up by former Liberal PM John Howard will be opened up to mining, under plans by LNP leader Campbell Newman to restrict Queensland’s landmark Wild Rivers Act.

    Mr Newman announced yesterday that statutory protection of rivers would be repealed.

    It means major developments such as mining will potentially be allowed much closer to rivers under an impact assessment system.

    Mr Newman will remove Cape York’s Wenlock, Stewart, Archer and Lockhart rivers from legislative protection but – at this stage – leave others to stand.]

    More in the article

  7. But we were told that all the bad eggs were confined to the News of the World in Rupert’s stable of papers.

    With this second Murdoch outlet now apparently using dubious tactics to obtain and/or make up stories, could this behavior possibly spread elsewhere?

    What if there were bad eggs in the local arm of the franchise?

    [A journalist from the Sun Newspaper in London has been arrested on suspicion of having made illegal payments to police officers.

    Police investigating events at the News of the World tabloid after a phone hacking scandal said they had arrested a 48-year-old in connection with payments made to police.

    A spokesman for News Corp’s British newspaper arm News International confirmed an employee had been arrested.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-05/sun-reporter-arrested-over-bribery-claims/3636950

  8. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Interesting that Deb Cameron has been sacked at #TheirABC 702. She has been strong support the Govt and critical of the Opp. smelly? #auspol
    46 seconds ago

  9. [PvO is full of it today. Julia’s future rests on Tuesdays Newspoll.]

    yep, the number will be good and her future is bright.

  10. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/mining-tax-has-exposed-abbott/story-e6frfhqf-1226186251139

    [Mining tax has exposed Abbott
    by: Laurie Oakes From: Herald Sun November 05, 2011 12:00AM

    IT WAS an extraordinary complaint from Tony Abbott. “It’s very difficult to have a sensible debate,” he said, “when you are confronted with a feral Government”.

    Politicians don’t come any more ferocious and brutal than Abbott. He reverted to the wild the moment he got his paws on the Liberal leadership.

    His style is pure attack dog, as feral as you’d get. Everything, irrespective of merit, has to be opposed and torn to pieces.

    The mining tax is a case in point. It is now glaringly obvious that the benefits of the mining boom should be shared around so that the overall economy benefits, rather than just a small and privileged section. Opposition to the tax is shrinking.]

    Worth a read

  11. The good news from the UK keeps on coming

    [A journalist from the Sun Newspaper in London has been arrested on suspicion of having made illegal payments to police officers.

    Police investigating events at the News of the World tabloid after a phone hacking scandal said they had arrested a 48-year-old in connection with payments made to police.

    A spokesman for News Corp’s British newspaper arm News International confirmed an employee had been arrested.

    Two company sources identified the man as senior Sun reporter Jamie Pyatt, a journalist who covered the 2002 kidnap and murder of British schoolgirl Milly Dowler, a case which played a key part in the hacking scandal this year.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-05/sun-reporter-arrested-over-bribery-claims/3636950

  12. gorgeous dunny 204

    I agree Rudd’s dumping was not the exclusive reason for Labor’s poor polling in 2010.

    Rudd had a noteworthy swing against him. The prediction was that he would have a big swing to him and that did not eventuate.

    The local CM rag ran a scurrilous campaign against the Government.

  13. Christopher Pearson in today’s OO makes a compelling case on ALP leadership tension. His evidence, which he gleefully cites, is articles by Nikki Savva, Simon Benson, and Mark Latham.

    He is especially keen on Latham’s view, as he writes for the AFR, which just goes to prove that this is not all a Murdoch press campaign to destabilize the government. He has yet to pick up PvO’s point about it all riding on Tuesday’s Newspoll for JG – but Pearson is doing his bit for the team.

    [Niki Savva, in Tuesday’s edition of The Australian, Simon Benson in Thursday’s edition of The Daily Telegraph and Mark Latham, also on Thursday, in The Australian Financial Review all dwelled at length on the Labor leadership question. The first two articles depicted the choice as a straight contest between Gillard and Rudd, noting how little time he had to get his ducks lined up. Latham, who has no time for either of them, predicted that Stephen Smith would be the eventual victor.

    He argued: “When the factional bosses tap her on the shoulder, Gillard will most likely adopt an ABR strategy: anyone but Rudd. Once a credible factional figure moves against Gillard, the underlings will briskly fall into line – a snowball effect against her leadership. As we move towards the end of the year, the traditional killing season in federal politics, this remains a feasible scenario.

    “The media hype about Rudd’s prospects is misplaced. In any early move against Gillard, Smith is in the box seat.”

    Gillard might well want anyone but Rudd. However, it remains to be seen whether she can get her way. Even if she left parliament, Lalor is a very safe seat.

    As well, stampeding backbenchers frightened of losing their seats might conclude that it’s easier to ask for forgiveness from their proliferating factional bosses than permission.]

    This last point of asking for forgiveness rather than permission is the killer point. After all, it works for Abbott.

  14. [“GILLARD FAIL” just on the shankles alone, was the consensus.]
    Yes, BB, I did forget the shankles. What are they going to do now that PM Julia has thrown off the shaCkles and they are faced with a woman PM endowed with all those dreadful personal shortcomings becoming more and more acceptable and even LIKED, or at least respected, out here in voterland?

  15. Hello PBers,If I was Steve Conroy I would be considering Deb Cameron for Neumans job as it looks to me as if he is going to do as much damage to the ABC as he possibly can before he leaves.Also I would have thought that if someone like Scott is unable to comply with or refuses to comply with the ABC charter then he should be able to be sacked on that reason alone

  16. Paul Kelly is either doing expectations management, or setting another “test” for the government to pass.

    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    by SpaceKidette
    Paul Kelly today hints the Newspoll might show the ALP rising to around 31-33% on the primary vote #auspol
    6 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply
    ]

  17. Good morning, Bludgers.

    And a good day it is, as I revel in:

    * The Finns’ Beautiful Set of numbers augmented by the week’s economic news and Aussies back as the World’s (per capita) richest, as well as the G20’s highest (pc) produers of GDP, the world’s 2nd happiest – and thanks to Hawke-Keating’s compulsory super, the world’s second-highest Money Bin of funds-under-management

    * Danny’s morning lilt … and the OpPolls having seemingly (touch wood, fingers crossed & various other “good luck” charms) turned the corner, as has MSM coverage (though in many cases very obviously grudgingly)

    & The devious, forever spinning, Leprechaun whose stunt, last Saturday, has even Shaun Carey reluctantly opining that the PM might have finally his her straps in IR – exactly that issue of Rights at Work most in tune with its traditional base; though the message she sent to Cowboy Bosses like Joyce is more likely to resonate like a tocsin through corporations large and small, Don’t mess with Gillard and her Ministers.

    All in all, a warm glow to go with the morning’s heart starter caff.

  18. My Say,I never have any luck with emails and sending thereof but if someone on PB was able to send it on my behalf I would very much appreciate it or even tweet it

  19. Ta Leroy

    Morning all. This will be big news in QLD.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/newman-to-open-wild-rivers-to-mining/story-e6freoof-1226186303639

    Campbell Newman to open wild rivers to mining

    Thanks for flagging it so far in advance, Cam.

    How long does it take for Combet & Bob Brown to get World Heritage Listing through Federal Parliament? I know Bligh’s government is seeking it, but not sure how far advanced the case is.

    There must be ALP/ Green preference deals in this.

  20. Hi janice, three of them returned last night on VIRGIN airlines,
    Baby now at RHH, weighs 2.60 kill, so so small, being fed by tubes now breathing on his own and the heart surgery successful,
    I think our daughter is only just holding together by a thread, but at least now we are all taking shifts
    To sit with and takes to him,, now have to teach him to suck, so long journey

    The. Dr, and nurses and so many other, but for us here the MEDI VAC. teams, can only imagine
    if the or one of them had been flying last sat,
    Thank you for thinking of us

  21. [Christopher Pearson in today’s OO makes a compelling case on ALP leadership tension. His evidence, which he gleefully cites, is articles by Nikki Savva, Simon Benson, and Mark Latham.]

    Classic bootstrap.

    Savva, Benson and Latham write articles and then Pearson picks up on them.

    Benson is good because he is from “another News Ltd. paper”.

    Latham is even better because is from another organization.

    Next stage is that the ABC launders these into “newspaper reports”, which when quoted back by the Murdoch press become “reports”.

    The OO also quoted Benson in an editorial, saying his predictions of an imminent challenge were wrong, because the OO knew for sure that the challenge would happen next year. The Tele got only the timing wrong. This is the “Damning With Faint Praise” gambit. (on DWFP, see also Grattan, The Age, “Gillard did slightly better this week, despite the Qantas debacle”, when it was in fact because of Qantas.)

    Moving into day #2, Abbott in parliament quotes “Daily Telegraph reports”, further laundering them into the Hansard. Now that Abbott has brought up the DT reports, the ABC is obliged to give it full, equal treatment, whether it is true or not.

    Anything Tony Abbott says on any subject is guaranteed comprehensive national coverage, equal to the government, by the ABC, due to a literalist interpretation of its charter.

    Next, his comments, and the “reports”, unsourced, are dished up by Ali Moore as “renewed leadership speculation”.

    On the “Where there’s smoke there’s fire” basis, soon the meme becomes “It’s not a matter of if, but when.”

    Nervous Nellie Labor caucus members pick all this up. They know they are not speculating, but wonder who is speculating. Eyes don’t meet in corridors. Each backbencher wonders who the rat is, and whether they are on the right or the wong side of the “challenge”.

    The aim is to get one or more of them to admit something innocuous like, “There’s always speculation on leadership. Someone is always disgruntled. It’s human nature.”

    This can be morphed into “Influential backbencher {insert name} today admitted that leadership speculation had become commonplace in the Labor caucus regarding Julia Gillard’s embattled leadership.”

    And onto the next round.

    Three people sitting around a table in the Holt St. cafeteria, all of whom work in the same office, dream up a “challenge” story. Latham, the perennial Labor feral, joins in out of hatred. They all go out and write their stories, completely independently of each other, of course (I mean, how could three separate newspapers, plus the ABC all be wrong?), and there’s your bootstrap.

    The story has gone “live” and has become self-sustaining.

    It has “pulled itself up by its own bootstraps”.

    It’s all based on the assumption that “If it’s in the newspaper it must be true, and if not true, must still be dismissed at length and in great detail.”

  22. Bushfire Bill

    [“GILLARD FAIL” just on the shankles alone, was the consensus.]
    I thought the term was “cankles” as in calf and ankle. At least that is what an annoying ad campaign called them when touting their “canckle” cure.

  23. [Paul Kelly is either doing expectations management, or setting another “test” for the government to pass.]

    Or rediscovering his inner Laborite?

    Nothing like the scent of an Industrial stoush Labor (& Labour) might win to bring out the inner Laborite – unless it’s contemplation of the impact on “screw the workers” bosses of what’s now lined up on Gillard’s Front Bench. I’ve an aged former national union president Bro-in-law who’d have to be sucking sour lemons to control the grin.

    Thanks for that, Alan Joyce.

  24. [I thought the term was “cankles” as in calf and ankle.]

    Actually there were a few minutes discussion on just that point. “Shankles” won out.

  25. Not bad, we now have reporters writing shite from other reporters,this Christopher Pearson must be a real intellectual to be able to copy the likes of Nikki Savas shite,what is it with these people writing shite on shite till they get a pile of shite or what.These pricks need a new header for themselves like Hacks Outhouse Where You Too Can Write a Load of SHITE

  26. next mondays Q&A panel

    does anyone else think this is stacked against ALP? or is it some attempt to ignite LNP leadership tension?

    Kate Ellis should answer each question along the lines of “the Liberals are deeply divided on this point……..”

    [For the final show of 2011, host Tony Jones is joined by Liberal MP, Malcolm Turnbull; Jessica Rudd; Ray Martin; Labor MP, Kate Ellis; and Former Howard Government Minister, Peter Reith.]

  27. leroy
    I just finished reading Laurie Oakes’ article in the Adelaide Advertiser.
    He continually used a new term for Abbott – “feral irresponsibility”.
    It resonates!

  28. [Kate Ellis should answer each question along the lines of “the Liberals are deeply divided on this point……..” ]

    and brush up on all Abbott’s policy positions, and just keep quoting them back at Turnbull and Reith

  29. Oz poll, as I made my rounds yesterday, airports to shops petrol stations and, hospitals
    The subject seem to arise, I then mentioned sente hearing many seemed surprised, of course they where’no banner headlines for this enquiry,
    So i got my little bit in with, ‘ this calling joyce to the senate would not of happened with a liberal gov
    The penny dropped, ?’ You can say that again, ‘ yes thank you mr joyce

  30. [With this second Murdoch outlet now apparently using dubious tactics to obtain and/or make up stories, could this behavior possibly spread elsewhere?
    What if there were bad eggs in the local arm of the franchise?]

    And what if a NOTW or Sun editor had information illegally obtained that would make a better story for The Times readership? Would the editor pass it over to his/her counterpart? You betcha.

    I don’t trust anyone whose likelihood depends on working for Murdoch.

  31. Good morning to all those in Bludgerland!

    And what a glorious morning it is. There can now no longer be any doubt that the narrowing is on; Peak Abbott has passed and he is about to enter a world of pain.

    Hehehehehehehehe.

    PS My Say: our daughter was only 2.77 kilos when she was born prematurely, and she is now a strapping fit and healthy 11 year old. I know that serious medical scares create an additional layer of worry with prem babies, but my feeling is if you can get them to a “healthy” weight as quickly as possible – as he appears to be now – it is half the battle won. Please pass on my best wishes to your daughter and keep us posted on how he is progressing.

  32. Morning all, I note there is more discussion about a challenge to Julias leadership here than in all media outlets lately, seems some bludgers cant stop talking about.
    I would have thought debate on the positive side of Julias leadership would be more healthy, after all there is a wealth of good news topics to reflect on. Leave the stupidity of taps on the shoulder and spills to the idiot media, we are all aware there will be no challenge.
    Merely my observation.

  33. ruawake @ 202

    [PvO is full of it today]

    I had the misfortune to catch a few minutes of ‘The Contrarians’ on Sky last night, and PvO was at his unctious best (or worst, depending on your political stripe.)

    It was the usual grab-bag of Gillard bashing and furious spin on behalf of the Coalition, mixed in with PvO’s high pitched whining and increasing ability to interrupt his guests with his own bellicose opinions seems to be more from the Alan Jones School of Broadcasting than anything he may have learnt at the University of Western Australia.

    Now we have Saturday Agenda on Sky with the zealous Abbottista Chris Kenny giving credence to John Lloyd, an ‘industrial relations expert’, but they do not bother to identify him as from being from the IPA until the end of the segment.

    Ted Turner has a lot to answer for with his creation of CNN that has spawned the 24 hour news cycle and the unceasing and often ill informed and biased punditry that treats opinion as real news.

  34. [I just finished reading Laurie Oakes’ article in the Adelaide Advertiser.
    He continually used a new term for Abbott – “feral irresponsibility”.]

    Abbott’s ‘feral irresponsibility’ in opposition to Gillard’s ‘Federal responsibility’

  35. I will be tied up most of today so can’t follow the discussion. But for any interested in the Qantas dispute & airlines more generally, there was a great discussion on ABC Radio National ‘Saturfay Extra’ this morning. Not available yet on the website but should be later.

  36. [And what if a NOTW or Sun editor had information illegally obtained that would make a better story for The Times readership? Would the editor pass it over to his/her counterpart? You betcha.]

    Well the trial in Victoria may establish whether the accused AFP ranker was paid for his information, or in some other way corrupted by that inveterate threatener, Paul Whittaker (then editor of the OO, now editor of the DT).

    I am sure if something bad comes out of this News will be shocked.

    However, this is very properly a Federal matter. It involves the dissemination of sensitive security and operational information, which is quite rightly eligible for formal investigation beyond just a trial in a Victorian Court.

    It is the smoking gun, connecting News corrupted police in the UK, with NEws corrupted police in Australia.

    It is, in short, a bomb waiting to go off.

  37. re bushfire bill 231
    That’s about the best analysis of the media rumour mill I’ve read in a long time. Totally agree with it.

    The media is totally poll-driven, and only when the polls turn will this ridiculous hamster wheel start spinning the other way.

  38. [sprocket_
    Posted Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 8:00 am | Permalink
    Christopher Pearson in today’s OO makes a compelling case on ALP leadership tension. His evidence, which he gleefully cites, is articles by Nikki Savva, Simon Benson, and Mark Latham.]

    The time has past; can’t even get people to put a slab on gillard not being leader at the next election let alone trying to extact a bit of grog becaue people fell for the “challange by the end of november” story.

    When voter land are ahead of the camberra press gallary, the camberra press galeray has a serious problems.

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