Sunday polling snippets

In my continuing quest to keep the posts ticking over until the paged comments problem is fixed, some polling nuggets that had previously escaped mention:

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports on Essential Research polling on what ails Labor, which was conducted for Troy Bramston’s newly released book Looking for the Light on the Hill. The poll has only 12 per cent believing the party was “clear about its goals and objectives”, with only one in three party supporters believing the party had clear goals and principles. The Coalition was rated equal to Labor or better on “the values of sharing economic prosperity; social justice, fairness and compassion; security defence and active foreign policy; and extending opportunities. On the issue of environmental sustainability, Labor scores behind both the Greens and the Coalition with a vote of just 22 per cent among ALP voters.”

• The Nielsen poll a fortnight ago came with questions on mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines and the carbon tax which I had previously neglected to mention. A telling gap in acceptance of the poker machine reforms was evident between Victoria, where 70 per cent were supportive, and New South Wales, where it was only 52 per cent. Nationally it had 61 per cent support (down five on April) and 34 per cent opposition (up five). The policy was more favoured by women (65 per cent to 58 per cent) and young people (72 per cent of 18-24, 53 per cent of 55+).

• Andrew Crook of Crikey has been told of Labor internal polling suggesting Labor would easily recover Melbourne from Adam Bandt and the Greens if the Liberals put them last on preferences, as they did at the state election. Said to have been conducted by UMR Research from a sample of 400, the poll had Labor’s primary vote steady since the election at 38 per cent, the Greens down three to 33 per cent and Liberals up four to 25 per cent, which would translate into a 58-42 win for Labor or a 54-46 win for the Greens depending on what the Liberals did with their preferences (80 per cent of which went to the Greens at the federal election, compared with 40 per cent at the state election). This stands in very stark contrast to polling conducted for the Greens by Galaxy and published in the Sun-Herald last week, which had the Greens at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, translating into a Greens two-party win of either 65-35 or 56-44. Andrew Crook’s report in Crikey also related that Cath Bowtell, ACTU industrial officer and state party president, is likely to run again for Labor after failing to succeed Lindsay Tanner as member at last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Sunday polling snippets”

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  1. PILOTS believe a date on a Jetstar email shows Qantas was planning to freeze operations for some time – but Jetstar says that’s “nonsense”.

    Jetstar says an email yesterday that told staff the airline’s parent company Qantas was grounding its fleet was dated last Wednesday only because a mistake was made copying a standard Jetstar header from an earlier staff email.

    The date was not updated, Jetstar said.]

    Who copies email headers? I have a bridge to sell Jetstar.

  2. [ jakekapitz Jake Kapitz
    Tony Abbott: shut up. You’d be whinging if the Government intervened early and be harping on about a “nanny state”. ]

    [mikey_eds Mike Edwards
    Does Gillard need a clear narrative on #Qantas? Suggest ‘get the f…. back in the air’
    ]

  3. CH7 running passengers in trouble, bad unions, Gillard must fix it cos Tone says so – says she should have acted earlier. Says CHOGM might have been OK but now she must hit reality.

    Bad CH7

  5. [ruawake

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    PILOTS believe a date on a Jetstar email shows Qantas was planning to freeze operations for some time – but Jetstar says that’s “nonsense”.

    Jetstar says an email yesterday that told staff the airline’s parent company Qantas was grounding its fleet was dated last Wednesday only because a mistake was made copying a standard Jetstar header from an earlier staff email.

    The date was not updated, Jetstar said.]

    Who copies email headers? I have a bridge to sell Jetstar.
    ]

    Unless they changed the date on the computer’s clock to that date.

  6. It will be interesting to see whether Mr Joyce’s attempt to enlist the Government as a union buster by way of Fair Work Australia will succeed.

  7. [MTBW
    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 6:13 pm | Permalink
    Dave I addressed you as Darn above my apologies!]

    Thanks for that explanation MTBW. I was trying to work out what it was I had said that you were agreeing with.

  8. [lizzie

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    CH7 running passengers in trouble, bad unions, Gillard must fix it cos Tone says so – says she should have acted earlier. Says CHOGM might have been OK but now she must hit reality.

    Bad CH7
    ]

    Qantas is a major corporate sponsor of Ch 7 Perth’s annual Telethon – – flying in the stars from interstate for Free – they were affected a couple of weeks ago when ie appeakl was on – having to book stars on alternative flights.

    They have a vested interest.

  10. George

    [Your points would apply to what I saw on channel 9. This could be an interesting turn of events for the Labor Party.]

    Seeing what has happened in this case it could be assumed that many workers would be wondering if the same could happen to them. This sort of shite will focus their minds and things like the asylum seeker issue the pokies and climate change will suddenly not be front and centre in their minds.

  11. [#Qantas @latikambourke You know things are bad when Boat peole can travel to Australia easier then the rest of us !]

    Most strange what some people think is funny.

  12. Socrates, is suspect that a review of the Act in light of how it is used by all interested parties during this dispute is going to be on the cards. When it gets down to basics, Joyce’s statements that they had no alternative to what they have done are going to come back to bite them. It’s bullsh@t, and going nuclear like they have should i think give rise to a Senate Inquiry that is pretty broad ranging.

    They could have applied to FWA for a termination of industrial action, before taking their own. I suspect they would have been laughed at, particularly in regard to the Pilots actions being PA announcements and tie wearing and so have gone for shock and awe.

    Citing safety concerns as the reason for grounding the fleet prior to the lockout is drawing a pretty long bow and i hope they have to show credible evidence to back this up position.

    Have just heard Abbott on ABC. Pretty predictable.

  14. [Jetstar says an email yesterday that told staff the airline’s parent company Qantas was grounding its fleet was dated last Wednesday only because a mistake was made copying a standard Jetstar header from an earlier staff email.]
    That sounds like grounds for an investigation to me.

    mtbw, thanks 🙂

    George, yes Australians don’t like extremism from either side. This action by Qantas has been very extreme and very provocative. Any conservative politician seen to side with it is asking for trouble. A good time to interview the usual suspects who can’t help themselves 🙂

    Before I switched Channel Ten had Penny Wong and Scott Morris. Scott Morris was immediately annoying, criticising government Minister’s comment on the crisis as being too strong! WTF?? I didn’t think it was strong enough. Keep digging, Scott. You aren’t in parliament now, and a lot of people are annoyed.

    Labor shouldn’t gloat or get inflamatory. They just need to focus on wanting to get planes flying and damage to the economy limited. But if Qantas has taken inflammatory action harming many people and pre-planned it without warning customers, then it is entirely valid to criticise that.

    In fact, Gillard should ask publicly how long Qantas has been planning this, and why didn’t it warn people? Is it true Qantas management have been booking hotels for weeks? It is a valid question, because it affects people’s rights to recover damages from Qantas, and potentially their share price. Affected people have a right to know. If Qantas admits they pre-planned for weeks they are in trouble. If Qantas deny or say nothing then govt should ask AFP or appropriate agency to investigate claims of pre-planning.

  16. [In fact, Gillard should ask publicly how long Qantas has been planning this, and why didn’t it warn people? Is it true Qantas management have been booking hotels for weeks?]

  19. Friendly reminder to all PBers concerned about Australian media….tomorrow is the deadline for getting your submissions in to the Media Inquiry…. 🙂

  20. [In fact, Gillard should ask publicly how long Qantas has been planning this, and why didn’t it warn people? Is it true Qantas management have been booking hotels for weeks?]
    Let me try that again.
    I think most people would prefer to see the problem solved at this stage. These other questions can certainly be asked a bit further down the track though.

  24. [lizzie

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    CH7 was so blatantly biased it was hopeless. Drives me nuts.
    ]
    I believe both both Sunrise and The Morning Show carry advertorials for Jetstar, and I think Qantas.

  25. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ Sue Bussell tells the Fair Work Australia hearing ‘we’ll live by the outcome’ of any arbitration.]

  26. Off to dinner for me; it will be interesting to see how FWA rules. Gary you are right about govt’s priority (get it solved) but I think Gillard should ask that question now. She can put it non-threateningly e.g. “I want to understand…”. But it needs to be asked.

  27. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Questioned about suitability the Fair Work Act, #Qantas’ Sue Bussell says not here to make political statements – just wants an agreement.]

  28. [If Qantas admits they pre-planned for weeks they are in trouble.]

    Seems to me they already have, but there is lots of stuff flying around at the moment (just not their planes). I’d think that there would be a number of travel insurance providers that are looking at substantial payouts over this disruption. They could be wanting to recover some of those from Qantas, and may look at upping premiums for people booked on Qantas after this.

    In terms of running Qantas as a viable ongoing business i just done see an upside to this for them. Xenephon’s Senate speech of the 21/8/11 (thanks Puff) is looking more and more relevant to this.

  30. [Qantas’ Sue Bussell tells the Fair Work Australia hearing ‘we’ll live by the outcome’ of any arbitration.]

    Oh goody QANTAS accept that IR law exists.

  31. Victoria, I think Latika might be better to think about her tweets more carefully. Making jokes at the expense of desperate people aint funny.

  32. [Questioned about suitability the Fair Work Act, #Qantas’ Sue Bussell says not here to make political statements – just wants an agreement.]

    Bullsh@t! Did they use all available and practical avenues provided by this act before they screwed over 63000 passengers???????

  34. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    It is now crystal clear #QANTAS has prepared for this grounding/showdown for a long long time. why dont they just admit it, stop the lying
    59 seconds ago

  40. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    #QANTAS new corporate song: Hah hah hah hah stayin alive, stayin alive
    7 seconds ago

  43. [MikeKellyMPMike Kelly MP

    by Matt_Ros
    @

    @chriskkenny 2million of your fellow Australians are union members. What are you trying to say to them? That they aren’t real Australians?

    7 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  44. ChrisOgilvieSnr Chris Ogilvie
    by StGusface
    Alan Joyce using shut down as step for off-shore #Qantas that’s why he won’t build MAINTAINANCE hanger for THE biggest investment A380 FACT

  46. [Victoria, I think Latika might be better to think about her tweets more carefully. Making jokes at the expense of desperate people aint funny.]

    vic/joe, she goes feral if she dont get #HerDailyFix from me.

  50. Socrates:

    [Seeing the earlier discussion of the Act, this episode highlights one weakness in it that was discussed a few years ago. It lacks reciprocity.]

    Another weakness is s.431.

    The settling of industrial disputes should in my view be the purview of the judiciary, not the executive.

    But I guess it was included to cater for extreme situations such as war.

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