Sunday polling snippets

In my continuing quest to keep the posts ticking over until the paged comments problem is fixed, some polling nuggets that had previously escaped mention:

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports on Essential Research polling on what ails Labor, which was conducted for Troy Bramston’s newly released book Looking for the Light on the Hill. The poll has only 12 per cent believing the party was “clear about its goals and objectives”, with only one in three party supporters believing the party had clear goals and principles. The Coalition was rated equal to Labor or better on “the values of sharing economic prosperity; social justice, fairness and compassion; security defence and active foreign policy; and extending opportunities. On the issue of environmental sustainability, Labor scores behind both the Greens and the Coalition with a vote of just 22 per cent among ALP voters.”

• The Nielsen poll a fortnight ago came with questions on mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines and the carbon tax which I had previously neglected to mention. A telling gap in acceptance of the poker machine reforms was evident between Victoria, where 70 per cent were supportive, and New South Wales, where it was only 52 per cent. Nationally it had 61 per cent support (down five on April) and 34 per cent opposition (up five). The policy was more favoured by women (65 per cent to 58 per cent) and young people (72 per cent of 18-24, 53 per cent of 55+).

Andrew Crook of Crikey has been told of Labor internal polling suggesting Labor would easily recover Melbourne from Adam Bandt and the Greens if the Liberals put them last on preferences, as they did at the state election. Said to have been conducted by UMR Research from a sample of 400, the poll had Labor’s primary vote steady since the election at 38 per cent, the Greens down three to 33 per cent and Liberals up four to 25 per cent, which would translate into a 58-42 win for Labor or a 54-46 win for the Greens depending on what the Liberals did with their preferences (80 per cent of which went to the Greens at the federal election, compared with 40 per cent at the state election). This stands in very stark contrast to polling conducted for the Greens by Galaxy and published in the Sun-Herald last week, which had the Greens at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, translating into a Greens two-party win of either 65-35 or 56-44. Andrew Crook’s report in Crikey also related that Cath Bowtell, ACTU industrial officer and state party president, is likely to run again for Labor after failing to succeed Lindsay Tanner as member at last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Sunday polling snippets”

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  1. ROFL
    [ domknight Dominic Knight
    Tiger Airways is now offering all stranded #Qantas passengers the chance to have their flights delayed on Tiger instead]

  2. Glory

    Of course there is something deeper. Here are my options /suggestions
    1. Deliberately trying to kill off Qantas international and replace with low budget international air line with offshore maintenance, staff and wages – the Liberianisation of airlines
    2. There are SERIOUS safety concerns with aircraft and this gives a better reason for grounding than poor management
    3. There is some insurance clause that means that someone else pays the bill if grounding is for to an industrial dispute (but not if it is a safety or maintenance issue)
    4. Joyce is a bloody idiot
    5. All of the above

  3. This is better than the comedy channel

    [PhilWillis: I still call Australia home, because I can’t go anywhere else at the moment. #qantas
    23 hours ago ]

  4. Oh dear can’t stopp laughing
    [he_aaron_smith Aaron Smith
    Tiger Airways employees now buckling under pressure as they deal with something unfamiliar to them… customers #qantas
    23 hours ago ]

  5. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ IR Manager Sue Bussell being called to give evidence at the Fair Work Australia hearing.]

  6. rishane and Bushfire Bill – agree with you both, but ABC, SBS (and I imagine other channels) are barely showing the PM’s face compared with the amount of repeats and general coverage we’re getting of Joyce. Even a story headlined as Bob Brown giving Joyce a blast on SBS was entirely Joyce justifying himself.

  7. [smurray38Stephen Murray

    Free? No wonder RT @FinancialReview: Fare rush: Virgin Oz says it’s picked up 20,000 stranded #Qantas customers with special offer [free] ..

    52 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  8. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ IR Manager Sue Bussell being called to give evidence at the Fair Work Australia hearing.]
    It looks like FWA is trying to get as much info as it can.
    That’s good.

  9. [PatriciaWA

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    rishane and Bushfire Bill – agree with you both, but ABC, SBS (and I imagine other channels) are barely showing the PM’s face compared with the amount of repeats and general coverage we’re getting of Joyce. Even a story headlined as Bob Brown giving Joyce a blast on SBS was entirely Joyce justifying himself.
    ]

    Are SBS and Their ABC on some kind of commercial deal re air travel for staff ?

  10. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ Sue Bussell ‘purpose of the lockout was to change the balance of the negotiations.’ For an outcome? Yes, says Bussell.]

  11. [leigh_howard
    @leigh_howard
    Bussell: a three month suspension will just put the parties back in the same place in three months time #Qantas #ausunions]

  12. [the lockout was to change the balance of the negotiations.’ For an outcome? Yes, says Bussell.]

    Change the balance to what?

  13. [How many of these journalists get cheap or even free travel/upgrades from Qantas?]

    Not sure, but was recently on an interstate plane & saw SKY sport commentator who flew bus class (me? economy)

  14. Prediction

    FWA will order the cancellation of all protected industrial action, order the parties to enter into 21 days concilliation then arbitration.

    Tony Abbott will blame the Govt.

    No media be ask why Abbott, O’Farrell and Ballieu seemed to know intervention would be needed.

  15. ]jenauthor

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

    How many of these journalists get cheap or even free travel/upgrades from Qantas?

    Not sure, but was recently on an interstate plane & saw SKY sport commentator who flew bus class (me? economy)
    ]

    Three words.

    Frequent Flyer Points.

  16. mtbw

    Contradiction is noted

    [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Bussell – in 3 months there’d be more discussion but we’d end up in the same place, (Earlier said change of balance could lead to outcome).
    8 minutes ago via ついっぷる for iPad]

  17. [leigh_howard
    @leigh_howard
    TWU trying to put evidence about how close agreement btw Q & TWU actually is. Goes to the factors favoring suspension #Qantas]

  18. [ Drew_1981 Drew Pearson

    So an Irishman walks into the job of CEO of Australia’s largest airline.. oh that’s the end of the joke. #Qantas
    ]

  19. [ MTBW
    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 5:50 pm | Permalink

    the lockout was to change the balance of the negotiations.’ For an outcome? Yes, says Bussell.

    Change the balance to what? ]

    Intimidate Qantas employees – show them who is the boss. Usual business and conservative approach.

  20. Maybeee2011 Maybe
    @
    @davidlen2 Hang on for a big ride David, the truth to come out of this is going to get very ugly indeed.. @latikambourke <-keep digging dirt

  21. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    TWU asks Sue Bussell if she knew full well Tony Sheldon told #Qantas CEO Alan Joyce there would be NO Industrial action next week.]

  22. Re Melb and Adam Bandt\
    ______________________
    That ALP internal polling..would that be the same”internal” polling that said last year that Brumby would win comfortably ??? I recall that very well !!

    Actually there has been other more reliable polling in Melb recently ,which suggests that the voters (including one Lib/ in three who recognised what a great member Bandt is…with a high media profile…..He will be very hard to shift!

  23. Darn

    Agree! I know I shouldn’t ask this question but is Joyce an Australian Citizen? I am really angry about this! I am hoping that my Dad’s expression “no one likes a smart arse” wins the day.

  24. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ Sue Bussell says she has no knowledge of that promise from the Transport Workers union of no action next week existing.]

  25. [deblonay

    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 6:01 pm | Permalink

    Re Melb and Adam Bandt\
    ______________________
    That ALP internal polling..would that be the same”internal” polling that said last year that Brumby would win comfortably ??? I recall that very well !!

    Actually there has been other more reliable polling in Melb recently ,which suggests that the voters (including one Lib/ in three who recognised what a great member Bandt is…with a high media profile…..He will be very hard to shift!
    ]

    There are more important issues atm than your wet dreams over Bandt….

  26. [michael_1969 michael_1969
    @
    #Qantas @latikambourke You know things are bad when Boat peole can travel to Australia easier then the rest of us !
    ]

  27. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    TWU asks why #Qantas made no application to access concilation functions of Fair Work Australia if it had decided on the 26th talks failed.]

  28. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    #Qantas’ Sue Bussell says companies position that the dispute had to be brought to an end. Says arbitration not only means – can negotiate.
    7 minutes ago via ついっぷる for iPad]

  29. Watched the Ten News coverage of the Qantas management shutdown tonight and a few comments:
    – coverage was generally very negative for Qantas management; many irate customers
    – coverage of FWA hearing was actually pretty factual and clear
    – Albanese sounded a little weak saying Qantas action was “unnecessary”. Well even the MSM has used words like “Reckless”, “Drastic” and “Provocative”. I’d call it “extremist” and “blackmail”. Also as other posts here testify, I’d say “pre-meditated”.
    – Ten quotes Qantas claim that it would be dangerous to fly while pilots were distracted by dispute.

    ROTFL – I’d say pilots would be a lot more stressed and distracted by Qantas management actions, knowing their jobs could be cut by current management bent on getting rid of Aussie employees. A really obvious lie.

    Also, regarding economic harm, the overall impact of this is FAR more than the losses to Qantas. Think what every airline passenger spends on average in a trip. It would average 2-3 times the plane fair on food and accommodation alone. The multiplier effect is 3-4, so you are probably looking at a dispute that costs Australia $100 million+ PER DAY, not counting the long term damage to the tourism industry via reputation loss.

    The long term damage to tourism will be severe. Australia has never been a cheap tourism destination. Our tourism selling points are “safe and reliable”. Qantas has just shot down reliable. Question-marks over outsourcing maintenance risk safety too.

    Penny Wong on now; going well so far.

  30. I see that BB has verballed me. I have never averred that Ms Roxon is destabilising the Prime Minister.

    That would be Mr Rudd.

  31. Socrates, hust watched the channel 9 report on the Qantas plane shutdown.

    Your points would apply to what I saw on channel 9. This could be an interesting turn of events for the Labor Party.

  32. Seeing the earlier discussion of the Act, this episode highlights one weakness in it that was discussed a few years ago. It lacks reciprocity. Employer actions that damage third parties should be subject to the same penalties as employee actions that damage third parties. They shouldn’t be protected. Qantas’ behaviour proves that cynical management can take advantage of this.

    The Act needs strengthening in terms of a public interest test. Hearing Xenephon’s comments last night makes me think that such an amendment is now passable in both Houses.

  33. Finns

    I notice that someone is proposing to establish a new company which wants to do something ethical.

    I call that duplication. We already do ‘heart of gold’. What more do they want?

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