Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face

Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from a phone poll of 538 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, the other its usual weekend face-to-face poll of 961 respondents. The phone poll’s margin of error is over 4 per cent, but its results broadly agree with Newspoll’s: the primary votes are 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12.5 per cent for the Greens (Newspoll had it at 29 per cent, 45 per cent and 15 per cent). However, it does not replicate Newspoll’s finding that public’s view of the carbon tax has gotten particularly worse: support is down one point since August to 37 per cent, with opposition up one to 57 per cent (Newspoll had it at 32 per cent and 59 per cent). The face-to-face poll finds the spike Labor recorded a fortnight ago continuing to ebb away: they are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 35 per cent with the Coalition hiking 5.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, taking up the slack from a curious slump in “others” from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

On two-party preferred, the face-to-face results produce their usual mismatch between the respondent-allocated and preferences-as-at-previous-election methods, which respectively have it at 56.5-43.5 and 54.5-45.5. It’s interesting to note that this is not true of the phone poll, where the two methods produce similar results: 55.5-44.5 and 55-45. The only other agency to publish both measures, Nielsen, uses a phone polling methodology and hasn’t generally produced hugely different results. It could be that Labor’s weak respondent-allocated preference share is specific to face-to-face polling.

NOTE: Apologies for the issues with the site, both in relation to it being down and comment pagination not working. The former seems to be resolved, touch wood; the latter will be attended to reasonably soon. Until it is, I’ll put up regular posts so that comments threads don’t get too long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

489 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 56.5-43.5 face-to-face”

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  1. [victoria

    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    mari

    Who is the rumour about?]
    No idea think is supposed to be about the person receiving it, there is a link but if you open it, think your computer is compromised or something, after just getting over the Australia Post virus I don’t want my computer getting”sick” again, nor does my wallet.

  4. [Mr Packer today said he was particularly disappointed Mr Wilkie raised the May suicide of the 45-year-old man in a hotel room the casino had provided to him for free.]

    You see, Victoria? He thinks everything can be “bought”.

  5. Charlton
    mari:

    [Agree with Victoria and Charlton Madonna King used to be beamed through to us on mid north coast of NSW, I soon learned to turn her off.}

    I wasn’t aware she had that much exposure.

    Yet another example of Scott’s & Newman’s debasing of Aunty]
    That was while ago on Coffs Local ABC, on Sunday mornings I think, as I stopped listening not sure if she continued or not

  6. [He may be correct some of the time but not in the case of QLD Labor.]

    1. Given the date of the foundation of the Q state (Menzies) Liberal government (state gov was ALP) Q has NEVER has a Liberal government.

    2. In no coalition was Q Lib every the senior party.

    3. From 1957- 1969, Liberals were the junior partner in the Country party Nicklin & Pizzey governments; From August 1968- Aug 1983, Liberals were the junior party in Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s government, until Lib leader Terry White ripped up the Coalition Agreement.

    4. The only time since 1983 that Libs have been in government was Feb 1996- June 1998 with Borbidge as Premier, Joan Sheldon as Deputy. Their term became infamous for

    [changes to the industrial relations system by introducing Queensland Workplace Agreements (QWA’s), similar to the Australian Workplace Agreements later created under the Federal Liberal government of John Howard]

    and using them to precipitate the Waterfront Dispute in conjunction with the NFF and a host of other scandals (outlined under “Premiership”)

  8. charlton
    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    [Without wanting to turn this into a Queensland thread, there is some truth in your comment that Fraser can be a little arrogant. I put that down to his relative youth.]

    Being from Victoria I didn’t know him but came in just after he started an interview on TV after missing the introduction. My reaction was “who is this ignorant arrogant prick?”

    And his support for ill-considered privatisations hasn’t won him any points with me either.

  9. [‘Abbott must balance the books

    A mining tax would help harness the proceeds of the boom

    …As the debate unfolds, Mr Abbott needs to show that he has an alternative vision for government that stretches beyond simply saying “no”.’]

    From today’s ‘The Australian’ editorial.

  12. Anyway I am going to watch the last episode of George Negus tonight at 6.30, probably be the last time I watch 10 news Getting rid of him and keeping Bolt is too much for me

  13. Boerwar:
    Abbott is being urged to be more than Mr No by many quarters. I think his cheersquad are starting to worry he is simply incapable of doing anything other than “NO”.

  14. The Australian is correct. Abbott needs to start putting together some policy substance because simply opposing everything has a use by date that is getting closer.

  16. Good to see the temp has flat lined

    Good to see the oceans continue to cool

    Good to see the sea level have not risen for two years.

  18. Penbo, why dont you ask Packer?

    [David Penberthy
    @penbo
    One thing I can’t understand is if james packer et al reckon mandatory pre-commitment won’t work on pokies, why do they care about it?
    7 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

  19. bemused

    charlton

    [Without wanting to turn this into a Queensland thread, there is some truth in your comment that Fraser can be a little arrogant. I put that down to his relative youth.

    Being from Victoria I didn’t know him but came in just after he started an interview on TV after missing the introduction. My reaction was “who is this ignorant arrogant prick?”

    And his support for ill-considered privatisations hasn’t won him any points with me either.]

    That’s fair assessment in my view.

    If Labor loses the election next year I think he’ll take over the helm.

    He will, however, need to reverse the perception that he’s a smart-aleck.

    Privatisation, removal of the petrol subsidy and longevity in office are, I think, the three main factors that will impact Labor’s chances. Yet, I still wouldn’t write off Labor.

    As zoidlord posted earlier, Bob Katter’s party could be interesting as it will affect the LNP vote, noting we have optional preferential voting in Queensland.

  21. [And his support for ill-considered privatisations hasn’t won him any points with me either.]

    Er what ill considered privatisations? They have all been rather succesful.

  22. Rummel, the trend on all three of those charts looks pretty emphatically upward to me, unless you narrow the time range to the last couple of years, which very clearly you shouldn’t. I gather you think you’re making the opposite point?

  23. charlton I think that is a fair and sensible summary of the situation. While the LNP remains at war with itself the possibility of a Labor win is there. I should feel more comfortable with the LNP leading 61/39 but it’s QLD and anything is possible up here.

  24. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/chilling-news-for-climate-sceptics-20111027-1mm5d.html

    Ha what a laugh, saying Muller was a sceptic is like saying Gore was one to. Also he has proved the world has been warming, snaps for him as the world has been warming since the last ice age. Now did this remarkable breakthrough prove it is man made bahaaaa NO. Now again, how will Gillards aspirational weather changing tax work. Oh thats right we all are going to get and nice Green fuzzy feeling that will change the world and its weather.

  27. William Bowe

    Im do not disagree on the trend. However the temps have flat lined for the last few years when all the huffing and puffing says it should be warming to the end of the world proportions.

  29. [Fantastic , so how does Abbotts aspirational direct action at give away prices change the climate.]

    arunta

    is does nothing for the climate and is a crock as well. At least Team Labor/Green seem to believe they can change the weather with a tax. Abbott is a flat out liar with this stinking policy.

  32. oooh goody a climate change debate … I have a slight diversion:

    JAMES Packer admits he gets upset when people accuse him of making millions of dollars from gamblers’ misery.

    Well I know he is rich and valuable to our community and I’m just poor ‘labour’ to be used abused and denied pay rises, but in my valueless simplicity it does occur to me that there is a very simple solution to poor poor James’ problem : STOP DOING IT.

    Perhaps a good way to start would be a mandatory precommitment system on all machines over a certain turnover speed … oh wait hasn’t someone suggested that?

  33. on climate change if it is very cold in my study because I have an air-conditioning blasting cold air at me, and I’m using like half of WA’s baseload power and still it isn’t getting warm (in my study) then global warming is clearly a nasty lie to ensure no-one in Collie has a job and I’m all hot and sweaty and smelly.

  34. [Rummel, this is a very complex subject, and you are a very simple person.]

    Thats great WB, there are a lot of us in Australia who dont understand how a tax will change the weather and why we should pay for it let alone not be upset that Gillard said she would not have a carbon tax in the first place.

    The only out come of this tax is a warm feeling that action has been taken, it is obvious that is does not matter if action will actually lead to outcomes that will make a difference.

  35. a tax will change the weather and why we should pay for it

    lucky for you Rummel you don’t need to understand how a tax would change the weather, because you aren’t getting a tax, there is no tax and Gillard is doing EXACTLY what she promised before the election scheme wise, I understand she said it wouldn’t start until after the next election and now it will … but even you could understand that.

  36. rummel I have sympathy to that view (will our carbon plan actually do anything?) however that is a separate issue to climate change science and what should be done globally to address it.

  37. rummel I have sympathy to that view (will our carbon plan actually do anything?) however that is a separate issue to climate change science and what should be done globally to address it.

  38. [Now did this remarkable breakthrough prove it is man made bahaaaa NO. Now again, how will Gillards aspirational weather changing tax work. Oh thats right we all are going to get and nice Green fuzzy feeling that will change the world and its weather.]

    Rummel, only a tea-bagger denies AGW thesedays

  40. Rummel,
    [Abbott is a flat out liar with this stinking policy.]
    You must now throw yourself prostrate in front of a photo of HRH Alan Jones and repeat.
    Forgive me father for I have sinned.

  43. Jasmine

    Gillard called it a tax
    Gillard said they would be no tax

    In fact Gillard has said so many things about this and changed her mind at every turn, its a laugh for the left to cling to the one time she agreed to a price on carbon.

    Top 1000 polluters – thats right now 500.
    Told kev to can the ETS – now all for it
    Wanted consensus – now does not give a toss
    No carbon tax in the government i lead – well she is leading a government brining in a tax.

    Gillard has had more positions then the kamasutra

  45. According to Today Tonite, Wadonga is now in NSW.
    If they can’t get a simple fact like the state where Wadonga is in, how can you trust them to get any facts right ?

  47. [You must now throw yourself prostrate in front of a photo of HRH Alan Jones and repeat.
    Forgive me father for I have sinned.]

    I dont need to do that because im happy to call the libs out on a turd of a policy.

  48. William Bowe
    Posted Friday, October 28, 2011 at 6:12 pm | Permalink

    [Rummel, this is a very complex subject, and you are a very simpleton person.]
    There William, fixed it for you. 👿

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