The latest fortnightly Newspoll offers the government a mixed bag: its best result on two-party preferred since May, with the Coalition lead cut to 54-46 from 57-43 last time, but a 10-point net decline in support for the carbon tax since late July. The two-party shift is entirely down to a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 45 per cent, with Labor remaining stuck on 29 per cent. The Greens have leapt three points to 15 per cent, their best result since March. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (three pionts to 31 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 61 per cent), while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 34 per cent and up two on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-35 to 39-36. Support for the carbon tax is down four points to 32 per cent, with opposition up six to 59 per cent.
Redistributions:
• The federal redistribution for South Australia has been finalised, with no changes made to the draft proposals from August. The biggest changes are the transfer of about 10,000 areas in an area around Aberfoyle Park from Mayo to Boothby, and a redrawing of the northern end of Port Adelaide, which has gained 8000 voters around Burton from Wakefield and lost a projected 7200 voters in an area of rapid growth around Salisbury Park to Makin. None of the changes is too remarkable in terms of likely outcomes at the next election – Antony Green has as always calculated notional margins on the new boundaries.
• Antony also reviews the finalised state redistribution for Western Australia, where the main change on the draft is the reversal of a plan to move Mandurah from the South West upper house region to South Metropolitan.
• There’s also the finalised redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly, which on this occasion has proved a slightly less dull subject than usual.
Preselections:
• The Sun-Herald reports a “fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive” has narrowly endorsed a plan to hold preselection primaries in federal seats yet to be determined. According to Niki Savva on the ABC’s Insiders program, it is “only a decision that’s been made in principle and they might try it in one or two seats to see how it goes, and that’s something that will be negotiated between the NSW and the federal divisions”. The Sun-Herald report also says nominations for most Liberal-held seats will be open tomorrow (Monday) and settled by next month.
• With respect to the state’s Labor-held seats, the federal Liberal Party is fast-tracking preselections for eight key seats: Dobell, Robertson, Lindsay, Greenway, Reid, Banks, Parramatta and Eden-Monaro. The Sunday Telegraph reports “local builder Matthew Lusted” is the front-runner in Dobell, and that Tony Abbott has approached unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Gazard to try again in Eden-Monaro. The Telegraph has elsewhere reported that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta from 1996 until his defeat until 2004, is contemplating a return to politics depending on the state of his business affairs. However, he is not interested in recovering his old seat, instead having his sights on Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith or the Senate. Cameron is encouraging Rachel Merton, daughter of former state Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, to contest Parramatta. Di Bartok of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that the candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli, is also interested in running, as are “Martin Zaiter, Brett Murray and George Goivos”.
• Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports Jaimie Abbott, a former media adviser to Paterson MP Bob Baldwin and RAAF reservist who has served in Afghanistan, has emerged as the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Newcastle.
• The NSW Nationals have changed their constitution to allow local party members to determine what kind of preselection they want, including the option of “community preselections” along the lines of US-style open primaries. A trial in the seat of Tamworth before the 2011 election attracted over 4000 voters and produced a winning candidate in Kevin Anderson.
• LNP campaign director James McGrath has confirmed his interest in succeeding Alex Somlyay as member for the federal Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax. McGrath has recently been embroiled in controversy over his role in paying former Labor candidate Robert Hough to compile dirt files on party figures. In 2008 McGrath was sacked from a job as adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson after making an allegedly racist comment about the city’s black community.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Glynn Williams, “Poppy Growers Tasmania president, legal practitioner and Hospice Care Association North West president”, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon. It is presumed he will face opposition from Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat at last year’s state election. The Advocate reported on September 17 that an internal Liberal poll of 220 respondents conducted from August 22-25 had the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred.
Other polling:
• Market research company ReachTel has recently published two results from automated phone polls, the first targeting 850 respondents in Labor’s most marginal Queensland electorate of Moreton and published on October 12. The poll put incumbent Graham Perrett 54-46 behind on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP and 9 per cent for the Greens. The poll also asked respondents about the carbon tax, finding 39 per cent support and 54 per cent opposition.
• The second ReachTel poll, published on October 19, was a national survey of 2428 which canvased three attitudinal questions. On the future of the present government, three options were offered: 50 per cent went for an immediate election, 36.5 per cent thought the Gillard government should serve out its term, and 14 per cent believed that Kevin Rudd should take over as Prime Minister. A question on same-sex marriage produced a very much more negative response than previous such inquiries from Essential Research and Westpoll: 43 per cent were in favour and 47 per cent were opposed. The Transport Workers Union’s industrial action against Qantas had 36 per cent support and 44 per cent opposition. Results on all three questions showed strong distinctions according to voting intention.
The figures are anbiguous though. Support for the Greens is up, whilst support for carbon tax is down.
Good morning, Bludgers.
And a good morning it is! Shanners has rediscovered the … wait for it … MoE!
Ah what memories of 2007, when Dennis was declaring The Narrowing!; had no idea what the MoE was, and had to be taught a very very public lesson by … damned if I can recall whether it was William or Possum!
Someone here will remind me for sure. Anyway, a thing of beauty it was. Thanks BB for reminding me, and all who read PB and Possum back then!
Hi folks,
Ah yes the news emphasising the opposition to carbon tax and no mention of recovery of labors 2pp.
Just on those figures though..strange but they seem to indicate (to me anyway) that the CSG is causing LNP voters to cross over to greens.
An issue worth exploiting in all those NP seats.
OPT
Shanahan will need to do even more spinning When Abbott gets the chop!
Salvete, Finns, and your beautiful set of numbers!
And happy rainy news for those of you from the dry West.
Thought exactly the same thing when reading BB’s extract above.
Movement in the right direction anyway.
Morning all. Have awoken to gentle spring rain, just in time for the garden to help dampen down all the mulch we’ve laid over the past few weeks.
Speaking of ‘grand delusions’, I seem to recall Shanahan was the one who spent 2007 banging on about the Narrowing, unable to come to terms with the fact that Howard was going to be rejected and ejected by the electorate. I suspect that if the current govt were to make serious ground in the polls he would spend all of his time talking about a Coalition come-back. He’s simply a shill who can’t set aside his political leanings. Once he is contextualised it is clear that what he offers can’t actually be called ‘analysis’ – he’s just another opinion pony prancing around the arena.
Fiz
Opinion pony = partisan hack
I’ve also reluctantly taken a leaf out of the Murdoch playbook, and tweeted some helpfull “opinion” and “unsourced speculation” about our soon to be former LOTO
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sir-johs-son-faced-lnp-tirade/story-e6freoof-1226175680014
Another day, another LNP story…
More in the article.
Sprocket@109
Love your work.
Don’t worry, Arunta. We’re trying. Hard to imagine, now, that CGS v Farmers was almost a non-issue this time last year, and certainly a non-issue (esp with the LNP) a mere 18 month ago. And this news (Ta, Frank. Widened the smile on my old dial this did!)
especially this tasty morsel which is sure getting a good spin round the local shopping centres and lunch pubs – but in a Q State context
And according to the soundbyte Bob Katter told Tony Abbott wtte don’t rely on my vote on certain matters.
http://www.6pr.com.au/blogs/6pr-perth-blog/three-amigos/20111024-1mfp0.html
early start for me today – got half of what I’d hoped for in the Newspoll with the Greens in the teens 🙂
Labor really needs to get back into the 30’s though, hopefully that will happen next fortnight
I’m really not too worried about the carbon tax figures, it will be fine once it comes in and people see the impact isn’t anywhere near as bad as Abbott has been sprouting
Overall, 8 points down with 2 years to go isn’t too bad a place to be 🙂
sprocket
You are being very mischievous! Let us know how twitter responds
Good marning all. A lovely fresh but sunny morning in the Adelaide Hills.
The Republicans seems to be quite over-represented ion these types of things. After all, hypocrisy does make for a good story.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-mayor-the-male-escort-and-the-underwear-photos-20111025-1mgsp.html
Michael Kirby is always worth reading.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/ending-sexual-apartheid-20111024-1mg9e.html
SHY on Abbott’s dilemma if Gillard announces a free vote on same sex marriage.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/gengreens/coalition-tied-in-knots-over-gay-marriage-20111024-1mg0o.html
And Ron Tandberg with a ripper of a cartoon on Abbott’s xenophobic trade policies.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Oz pol@112
Do you agree that the CSG has caused the shift or other factors at work.
Its the only way I can reconcile an increase in greens support matching 2pp support?
Essential staying the same in 2pp terms verifys it in some way.
It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me that support for the CT would drop 4%, but the 2PP would rise for Labor.
The unpopularity of the CT among the younger voters is puzzling too.
if the boot was on the other foot I’m sure the headlines would be govt lose 3 % of 2pp and no mention of primaries or specific issues. I think this result on top of recent ones,( despite all the libs and their media could throw at us ), will start murmurings of discontent amoung abbotts ranks.
Good morning, fellow Bludgers!
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Wayne Swan is the World’s Greatest Treasurer.
Andrew Bolt is, has been and always will be a dickhead.
TEH NARROWING IS ON!!!
All is right with the world.
PS How much more time are we giving Abbott? Couldn’t gain government when he had the chance, couldn’t stop legislation passing when he had the chance, hasn’t managed to overthrow the government yet and it is looking increasingly unlikely; now the polls are all starting to turn sour. Yeah, the stunts were good, they were fun and they worked, but everyone is starting to switch off them now and want to know what else he has to offer. The answer? Not much, and what is there, people don’t like the look of. Everything around him smells like a man living on borrowed time. He he he.
PPS Off to work again today, Bludgers. Be good, and if you can’t be good, be careful. But if you can’t be careful, name it after me 😀
BB
Dont get me wrong , great 2pp result for labor but like you..why the odd numbers underpinning the changes?
54-46 puts us within spitting distance with 2 years to go.
I maintain that Abbott is Labor’s best hope. Yet I want him gone. He has divided this country like no other and it has been ugly and draining. His Leadership has taken the Coalition down a nasty path, and this is not good for the nation.
And yesterday, bereft of one who resigned as Briz’s Lord Mayor, but is not yet the official Opposition – not even in the parliament … may not even get there – the one, the only Cantdo Somethings.
BTW Loved Anna Bligh’s mad hat. Yr live in Qland, ya gotta have big shady hats. And what dame wants a big hat that isn’t silly!
Morning all. And a nice morning it is too, with movement towards Labor after passing its bills. Funny thing indeed how some people remember their MOE too. I suppose these Newspoll figures explain why we only heard about the Indies seats yesterday.
Even funnier thing is that I cannot even find a mention of this story on the ABC this morning. That was despite running a story on previous Newspolls less flattering to the government, and even one yesterday about the independents. OK< I have been reluctant to criticise the ABC for bias before, but I am coming around to that point of view now. Why say nothing when there is statistically significant shift TOWARDS the government after passing a major bill? Surely that is news?
The Republicans are ruining America.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2011/10/24/florida-teacher-could-face-thousands-of-dollars-in-fines-for-helping-students-register-to-vote/
This can’t be possible!
http://crooksandliars.com/nicole-belle/its-agreed-we-need-infrastructure-inv
Carbon Tax support well down
Greens vote up to 15 per cent
Labor primary stable
LNP primary down by 4
It’s an outlier for sure given no change in Essential over same period.
Maybe the Queens visit is moving more voters to the Greens from the LNP if so just imagine how many will move when Obama arrives.
I expect “the narrowing” may become the widening in two weeks exactly.
Socrates
I did not want to believe the ABC bias myself. But over time, it has become apparent. In fact, the bias at the ABC has been worse than Sky, which is saying something.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=677437&vId=
More in the article
Socrates
There is no movement toward the ALP, the 4% support drop in the Coalition went to the Greens, which is actually not very good news for the ALP. It support the theory that any gains from CT will be made by the Greens and losses by the ALP.
The 2PP has assume that the 3% drop in Coalition support went first to the Green, then will preference the ALP. I suspect this won’t be the case.
I believe the Coalition supporters who wants a carbon tax (previously called Doctor’s wife vote) has given their No 1s to the Greens, for a Carbon tax well done, but the preference is going back to the Coalition
Victoria
Agreed. Here is the link to yesterday’s story on the Indepedent’s polling:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-24/newspoll-on-windsor2c-oakeshott/3596402
And there is no link to this piece that even the Oz couldn’t avoid mentioning on its front page, with no corresponding ABC coverage to link to:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-and-carbon-support-fall-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226175717066
Can somebody please ask the ABC’s online editors why they reported the story about 2 electorates, and not the national story?
dovif
You can spin it how you like. Abbott is becoming a liability for his party. Just a matter of time, and he will be given the chop.
best ad hominem response on twitter – I need to think of some more Abbott/Melbourne Cup digs, after his appearance at Flemington trackwork this morning. This will be a rich vein to mine leading up to the big race next Tuesday – can Tony survive that long as front-runner?
Predictably Frank Kelly and Michelle Grattan took the Australian perspective (from the freebie section) on this Newspoll – Labor’s primary vote stuck, can take some heart but the real story is the declining support of the carbon tax.
BINGO Frank!
Just more opinion ponies prancing around the arena. At what point do we call it and say that political analysis in the msm in this country is officially dead?
Fiz
The msm have kept up the narrative for so long, and like sheep will only change when it is staring at them in the face. Wont be long now.
Oops, Fran Kelly rather than Frank Kelly…
Dovif: “doctor’s wives” who want a carbon tax are not about to preference a party led by a bunch of deniers who have done everything in their power to stop it from happening, including endorsing protests at which people refer to the Prime Minister as a “witch” and a “bitch”.
Nice try.
dovif
That is a fairly ambitious theory, given the fallacy of making new assumptions about preference flow that William has often warned us all of.
Even if your theory were correct, why doesn’t the ABC report it? That is my point.
Yes victoria, I suspect you are right. In this house we call Michelle Grattan the Titanic. She follows the media pack around repeating the ‘vibe’, but is usually one of the last to turn so finishes off political cycles by hitting wrong-headed anlaysis icebergs.
Off to work, have a pleasant day all. I hope somebody neutral asks Abbott about his own personal ratings…
Mike Papantonio on Bayer’s Yaz, a drug that has been available in Australia fro three years. Papantonio will be leading a court case on it in January.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385×628120
Socrates
I believe it was cuppa who mentioned that the reportage on ABC yesterday was very strange, and it was revealing enough for cuppa to believe that it was due to a decline in support for the coalition. The ABC must have been spending their time scratching their heads wondering how that could be after all their hard work supporting the coalition.
Overseas election results
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15418331
Poll jolt for Swiss anti-immigration People’s Party
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15438945
Moderate Islamist party claims election win in Tunisia
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/23/2467677/argentine-president-looking-at.html
Argentine president wins landslide re-election
Socrates:
The ABC generally takes its daily lead from the Australian. It may morph later on in the day, but you can pretty much count on breakfast radio, especially, to present political analysis framed by the Australian. It’s been that way for a long time now and feeds into why the Australian is considered in media circles as being politically influential.
BK
I despair at the state of affairs in the US.
If this poll is accurate (and it’s roughly consistent with Essential’s 2PP), then it’s fair to say Morgan was first with the trend.
It is not just the polls, but I feel that Abbott is under real threat within the party atm. Most people believe he will be challenged sometime next year. I am not so sure.
FS @ 85
If they risked the same sorts of vessals that the current tranche of asylum seekers use, the Pacific would ‘take care’ of most of them.
Dusty doing it for Labor: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iz_RVQwqwzU
Whilst people erroneously call it a “carbon tax” rather than an “emissions permit” it will be difficult for support to climb above 50%.
Taxes are what a government extracts from non-public ownership. A permit is what the government leases on behalf of the public.
The carbon price system we have isn’t a tax, it’s a permit. It assigns a price to those who wish to emit greenhouse gases into the public atmosphere.
good news from my say.
Her grandson had surgery yesterday, and he is improving.
Another interesting factor is that 30% of Labor voters are AGAINST the CT, comprising 16% “Strongly Against” and 14% “Somewhat against”, with 10% of Labor voters “Uncommitted” (all on a 2PP basis I guess, although that’s not made clear.
6% of Coalition voters are also in favour.