The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.
Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.
Gus – I thought the Govt. hadn’t lost more than a couple”
Interesting that Shamaham is a bit concerned about Nauru and disagrees with Abbott.
Quade Cooper should have been replaced early. He was a liability.
[Did Shamaham just say there had been a lot of lost votes on the floor of the House recently?]
Inadequate toilet traning?
[sspencer_63 Stephen Spencer
Looking like The Aus may have shut down @GhostWhoVotes Less than 1 hour til publication and no Newspoll leak. Online at midnight.]
Ghost has missed a Newspoll in the past hasn’t he/she?
[Did Shamaham just say there had been a lot of lost votes on the floor of the House recently?]
In What Universe??
Gus:
I think knifing references might be a better Godwins alternative. You can always rely on the Rudd Cult to invoke one or three.
evan
there is only one brutus
👿
tlbd,
Well, last Saturday morning we went down to the local charcuterie before the week-ends WC quarter finals had been played. There was nobody to be seen in the streets and when we mentioned how quiet it was, the charcutiere said that everybody was in front of the TV waiting for the France-England match to start. I assured her that, not only would France beat England but that France would be meeting Australia in the final. So, to answer your question of what I will be doing the last week here, if France doesn’t beat Wales and Australia doesn’t beat NZ, I will getting out a week earlier than scheduled as I am currently being hailed as the Rugby Messiah…
[I want to like Bill Shorten, but then I picture him in the role of Brutus or Cassius, plunging one of the knives into Caesar.]
Oh lord….
The one good thing about not having daylight saving is that it is only 8:16 pm in the West.
bh
he seems a tad ahem rattled
fiz
yup
Fulvio
Sorry for the negativity but moi just couldn’t help myself.
For some crazy reason with no basis of reality me thinks the poll must be inexplicably bad if Shamaham has been doing interviews explaining the polling process & it’s credibility.
Hope I’m sooooooo wrong.
Just thinking!
Night! 🙂
he was referring to procedural votes not votes on legislation
[Quade Cooper should have been replaced early. He was a liability.]
Nyet. He has a genius which may turn a game like no other. The other 14 were doing brilliantly.
I rest my case.
TLM — It has been more than a year — please stop wasti g your energy and everyone else’s sanity by going on about Rudd’s demise.
IT IS OVER!
[Did Shamaham just say there had been a lot of lost votes on the floor of the House recently?
In What Universe??]
Well he was looking at it from the Opposition’s point of view.
ris
rudds law- the roman version
🙂
So evan, you certainly wouldn’t want Rudd to knife JG then would you? Knifing is so bad.
A Caesar comparison may not be the most flattering given Caesar was trying to set himself up as dictator for life…
Iwant to like Evan, but then I picture him in the role of Malvolio, spreading evil rumours and bismirching the good name of Desdemona.
[smithe
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Permalink
Leroy
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 8:55 pm | Permalink
Strap on your kilt and read these articles.
Look, I know Scotland and Wales got a completely crummy deal from the Brits in times long past, but for the life of me, I can’t see the attraction in further fractionalisation of Britain.
Tribalism is a wonderful thing, if you live in the Bronze Age, but I suspect, not so relevant these days.]
Yeah, it’s interesting. I remember a bloke explaining a bit about his Scottish Dad. Apparently he was a firm nationalist and convinced Scotland had got a rotten deal from the Poms (which they undoubtedly had). At the same time he’d had a career in the British army and was immensely proud of the extent of the empire and even his part in it.
The son said he could never quite reconcile the contradiction in the two views and was rather happy to be out of it as an Australian. But the father seemed able to hold both views without any obvious dissonance.
TLBD – precious little genius on display in that game.
Scarpat,
I have appreciated our Foreign Correspondent. Heap big thanks.
Shamaham takes no calls – how surprisement. – And no mention of Newspoll either.
frank
when is he going to do talkback
I would love to speak to shannnnnnnnnnaaaaaaaaaaaas again
😉
[3126
gusface
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
frank
when is he going to do talkback
I would love to speak to shannnnnnnnnnaaaaaaaaaaaas again
]
He did an Abbott – no Talkback
[Iwant to like Evan]
\
me too, like haemorrhoids and migraines
Gus – really interesting from Shamaham when he said losing the AS vote doesn’t mean a loss of confidence in the govt. and that Abbott should let the bill through. Chrissie Pyne won’t like that.
Shamaham redeemed himself with Abbott when he ran Julie Bishop’s line about the PM and Kev ‘interfering’ in the Bali boy case.
[3100
Thornleigh Labor Man
I want to like Bill Shorten, but then I picture him in the role of Brutus or Cassius, plunging one of the knives into Caesar.]
Oh, TLM, you can be sure that whatever role you are imputing to young Bill, and however much he may have wanted to open the batting in June last year, he was really just carrying the drinks.
Gweneth,
Those who know the game understand. I’m not disparaging, just saying.
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
Iwant to like Evan, but then I picture him in the role of Malvolio, spreading evil rumours and bismirching the good name of Desdemona.
]
Speaking of Desedmona:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGtgacHMIec
[TLM — It has been more than a year — please stop wasti g your energy and everyone else’s sanity by going on about Rudd’s demise.
IT IS OVER!]
TLM,
but don’t worry, the good news is that Santa Claus exists.
[he was referring to procedural votes not votes on legislation]
wtf
he wouldnt know a procedural vote if it smacked him on his ass
(and yes i mean donkey not his posterior)
[
itwittagainPeter
Did Julie Bishop just compare Tony Abbott to Steve Jobs? OMG. She either has no idea who SJ was or is so full of shit. #qanda
6 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
In relation to Newspoll, no early leaks probably mean that it’s status quo for Labor, or an improvement for them on 2 weeks ago.
[but don’t worry, the good news is that Santa Claus exists.]
Are you saying some think santa aint real?
burn em at the stake!!~!
Must have been strong rumours to make it all the way across from Twelfth Night. 🙂
[In relation to Newspoll, no early leaks probably mean that it’s status quo for Labor, or an improvement for them on 2 weeks ago.]
Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.
bh
i suspect he sniffs the winds of change
😉
OHHhhh
the fib front fool, dicky mouth, is on another TV show
HOW BLOODY UNUSUAL
🙁
[Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.]
William, are you trying to depress us? prematurely?
Well, Aguirre, I did ok for a guy who last read any Shakespeare 44 years ago …
So if it wasn’t Malvolio, who was the Evan like crearure?
No early leaks equals one of five things:
– Shift to Labor of a lot
– Shift to Labor of a bit
– No change
– Shift to Coalition of a bit
– Shift to Coalition of a lot
It’s a proven formula.
TLBD – I understand the game and I think that one of its failings is that we get starstruck by people like Quade (and Gits, and plenty others). If you are not in form you are not in form. I think he can play well but he was not in that game. Once that was obvious then he should have been off the field. That is all I am saying.
Oh well, in the absence of Glen and Thomas Paine, I guess I’m now the ‘Villain of Poll Bludger’. 🙂
[jenauthor
Posted Monday, October 10, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.
William, are you trying to depress us? prematurely?
]
Or he’s still auditioning for.. oh you know the rest 🙂
glory
u missed
[the third drawer]
👿
William,
Are you Michelle?
[Either that, or there’s been a shift to the Coalition.]
Party Pooper! but disappointing if right.