Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Can’t see full online results anywhere at this stage, but GhostWhoVotes and The Australian relate the publication of the latest quarterly Newspoll figures providing breakdowns by state, gender and metro/regional from the past three months’ polling. The state figures are always the most interesting from my perspective, and it’s only Newspoll and Nielsen which offer this level of detail. Nielsen publishes full breakdowns for its monthly polls, but these are from much lower samples than the quarterly Newspoll. To even the playing field, the following discussion uses quarterly averages of Nielsen’s results.

The resulting samples are substantial for the biggest states – over 2000, in the case of Newspoll for New South Wales – but correspondingly smaller for Western Australia and especially South Australia. It is presumably no coincidence that for the two biggest states the two pollsters are currently in agreement, with swings of 8 per cent in New South Wales and 6 to 7 per cent in Victoria (although as the charts below show, it was a different story in the previous quarter). It is also agreed the swing in Western Australia is around 4 per cent. With Queensland however, a gap emerges: Newspoll says 6 per cent, Nielsen says 10 per cent. There is a still bigger gap in the case of South Australia, but this can be put down to small samples and the latest obviously anomalous result from Nielsen.

To establish whether there has been any consistency in these distinctions over time, the charts below show the Labor swings recorded in each quarter since the election. Despite poll-level peculiarities, both broadly suggest that Labor enjoyed a post-election dead cat bounce in the resource states. In the case of Western Australia, this gave Labor a buffer which is still evident in the relatively slight current swing. On the Nielsen chart however, the most recent result sees the lines for New South Wales and Victoria cutting across Queensland’s – remembering that the prevous quarter’s results for these states were very different from Newspoll’s, the only serious interruption to a broadly similar picture for these two states since the election.

Conveniently, Galaxy has also conducted one poll of 800 respondents in each quarter in Queensland, and these accord perfectly with the Newspoll and Nielsen results from this state. In each period, Labor is slightly higher in Newspoll and slightly lower in Nielsen with Galaxy in between, and there’s not much in it in any case. In the current quarter, Galaxy’s 63-37 two-party preferred splits the middle of the previously noted four-point gap between Newspoll and Nielsen. The only other state-level results I’m aware of are two Western Australian polls of 400 respondents conducted by Patterson Market Research. One of these was as long ago as October last year, which accorded with Newspoll and Nielsen of that time in showing a Labor recovery. However, an unpublished poll from two months ago was solidly worse for Labor than either, pointing to a swing of about 7 per cent.

What the polls would appear to indicate then is a big enough swing in New South Wales to account for Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Kingsford Smith, Werriwa, Barton, Richmond and McMahon, and a slightly smaller swing in Victoria that would take out Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and possibly Chisholm (UPDATE: I originally included McEwen, but as noted in comments, the redistribution has made this safer for Labor). Since Galaxy splits the middle in Queensland, it seems best to apply its 8 per cent swing there – which, as was noted at the time the poll was published, would leave only Kevin Rudd standing in Griffith. Gone would be Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Blair, Rankin and Oxley. In Western Australia, Labor currently holds Brand on 3.3 per cent, Fremantle on 5.7 per cent and Perth on 5.9 per cent: the Newspoll and Nielsen poll swings would put the first in danger while sparing the second and third.

Results from South Australia are small-sample and inconsistent, except that they have broadly been at the higher end of the national spectrum – perhaps around 8 per cent. However, this is coming off the high base of last year’s election, which gave Labor very handy buffers in a swathe of traditionally marginal seats. The lowest Labor margins are 5.7 per cent in Hindmarsh (where Labor has weakened relatively over the last two elections), 7.7 per cent in Adelaide, 12.0 per cent in Wakefield, 12.2 per cent in Makin and 13.9 per cent in Kingston. The last three seats, remarkably, were all in Liberal hands as recently as 2007.

Owing to insufficient sample size, neither Newspoll nor Nielsen provides state-level breakdowns for Tasmania. We did however have an EMRS poll from Bass a month ago which pointed to a 9 per cent Liberal swing, but this was from a small sample of 300 and there were questions raised about its methodology. A swing of that size would nonetheless be enough to take out Bass (6.7 per cent) and its neighbour Braddon (7.5 per cent). The territories of course are pretty much excluded from the polling picture altogether, although Warren Snowdon’s hold on Lingiari in the Northern Territory would have to be open to question given its margin of 3.7 per cent.

None of this should be read as a prediction: first term governments notwithstanding, its a rare government that doesn’t plumb mid-term polling depths far removed from the result eventually produced by the election. This is especially so in the modern environment, when weakening party loyalties have produced an ever-swelling contingent of swinging voters. Even so, the drumbeat consistency of dire results for Labor since April is hard to ignore, and it has no precedent for any government which lived to tell the tale. Labor’s leads during the early part of Mark Latham’s shooting star trajectory were never higher than 55-45; only once in early 2001 did Kim Beazley get as high as 57-43, and was usually solidly lower; and the relevant Newspolls for the great Houdini act of modern federal politics, Paul Keating’s win in 1993, look fairly benign compared with Gillard’s recent numbers. The Fightback! polls which toppled Hawke at the end of 1991 were in the order of 56-44 and 57-43, and Keating wrestled them back to the low fifties by March. Only from November 1991 to February 1992, after John Hewson remodelled his GST to exclude food and clothing, did the Coalition reach such peaks again.

Another lesson from history is that when the electorate ejects Labor from office, it tends to do with a force which the conservative parties are spared. With few exceptions (a handful of those in New South Wales plus Brand, Lingiari and arguably Oxley, which Pauline Hanson won in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal), the seats listed as Labor losses on the current results have all been lost to them before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,134 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    GD,

    The electoral cycle in Australia forces Governments to make all their initiatives and unpopular decisons in the first year. The second year is for bedding down and fine tuning and the third is for reaping the benefits and cosying up to the electorate to ask for another term.

    Indeed, Gillard will be thinking that “Time is on my side”.]

    I’m thinking that, too, GG. I had an interesting experience locally that started with letters to the Warrnambool Standard. My opponent was a Liberal hack who essentially believed the official line. She took it further along the lines of , “How could she blatantly lie to us and do the opposite?” ; even “How do you measure/weigh carbon?”

    In my response, I took her complaints to be genuine and answered them at length, even the point that Gillard hadn’t really broken any commitment because she was differentiating between an ETS and a carbon tax with that statement. I added also that given the low Labor primary vote it likely took votes away from Labor, and that it would be impossible to find a Labor voter who felt betrayed by that statement.

    Still, it didn’t satisfy her and she wrote to the Standard again thanking me for my explanation but more or less rejecting it. I knew that I could not continue with Letters to the Editor; so I wrote to her direct enclosing the OO download;
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983

    I have not heard another word either in reply or The Standard. I regard that as a win because I’d have expected at least a ‘you are wrong/mistaken’ response.

    It might be optimistic to assume that she now believes. But I think it’s reasonable to assume that she may not necessarily believe Gillard is a liar, in office on a deception.

  2. Well the libs. Must think. The. Pm. Is pretty. Dash good. If. They Want her not here

    Its a bit like a. ‘Sport team. When. The opposing team. hopes
    The best player will not. Turn. Up

    So. They are making fools of them selves if they thought she was that bad. They would be hoping she stays. On the other hand. We want. A a. To stay for the opp. Reason

  3. This is no surprise.

    [THE core social values of Labor voters are far more closely aligned with Coalition supporters than Greens, a new social cohesion survey finds.

    On a range of questions – such as valuing the “Australian way of life”, concern over immigration rates, the importance of migrants “blending in” and whether climate change is the nation’s most pressing problem – the response from Labor voters was more in sync with Coalition supporters than Greens.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-voters-closer-to-liberals-than-greens-survey/story-fn59niix-1226147386408

  4. GD

    [I’d agree with Andrew Elder about Arbib and sport/clubs. How could he miss that one in NSW and still be considered savvy?]

    What was that about?

  5. [GG
    Yet another Lib predicting Gillard’s demise.]

    Since Abbott’s Mob couldn’t lie straight in a well-fitted coffin and, according to their post-Indie-Decision2010 predictions, have been in Gov since Nov/ Christmas/ Feb/ Easter/ Budget night/ 30 June/ etc – and have stopped NBN, medical reforms, Budget, CP and over 100 other Bills …

    I regard Libs’ predicting Gillard’s & the Gov’s imminent demise as A Good Sign!

    Here repeat Danny’s morning list!

    PS: Now & tomorrow, have roofers repointing tiles with new gee-whiz mortar and adding “Valley” Guard to our existing Gutter Guard, ensuring better fire and water-penetration protection. NOT a quiet process! Not conducive to reading/writing.

    Seriously stressed Cat!

  6. abbo

    How about this?

    Once upon a time the ABC was a reliable news source. If you thought an article seemed a bit suss/iffy in the commercial media, it sufficed to check the ABC. Now, the ABC is running the agenda set by News/Ltd.

    It starts with “What the Papers Say” on late night ABC radio. Of course, all the papers, apart from The Age and the SMH, are News/Ltd. Whatever stories they’re running become the major news stories on ABC the following day.

    Yesterday’s effort was a disgrace. All day the ABC kept up with the non-story about the AFL being part of an NRL/Clubs Australia campaign against the Wilkie pre-comm policy. It wasn’t true. ABC didn’t check the sources. They didn’t correct it when the AFL gave the media a serve but continued to report that the AFL had conducted a meeting solely about this is-yew, regardless that the meeting was actually about the divvying up of $billion funding.

    Blah, blah, blah.

    The ABC under Mark Scott and the Howard appointment-stacked board has lost its way in the way it gathers and presents news. They’re no longer independent news-seekers but parrots of News/Ltd. And it’s bloody offensive that rather than lead the pack, they’re trotting along behind, as now they’re untrustworthy as the rest. They are no longer the go-to for verification. Very, very sad.

  7. In case it has not been linked an excellent AS article from Mega George. He reckons he will be doing one on the meeja soon as well. I liked this comment from him about the meeja pack.

    [A respected colleague did raise this very point with me the other day: the press gallery loves Abbott even though his positions don’t pass the laugh test.
    It’s the same trap many fell into with Rudd: reporters don’t want to get on the wrong side of a landslide.
    I prefer to go after them when they are in front. No dignity in kicking them when they are down. ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/diplomacy_is_lost_amid_our_leaders_backyard_squabbling/

  8. It seems to me as a non pokie person that the more people become aware of the facts about the pokies tax the less frightening the tax becomes. Once again this is the problem this Government has it couldn’t sell a chook raffle in a pub. Mark Butler did well last night on Q&A by speaking clearly about the aims of the tax and how it will work. Thought that William McInness and Rob Oakeshotte both did well also. Plain straight talking wins every time.

    BTW When is someone going to ask about the pay structure in the Clubs for the Managers and Executive Officers – that would tell a story and a half. Vested interests comes to mind.

  9. OPT
    [Seriously stressed Cat!]
    Oi, are you casting aspersions on Geelong’s chances against Collingwood in the GF?

    PS. Hope all goes well with your re-roofing 🙂

  10. William,

    You list McEwen as a seat to fall in Victoria on current polling. However the redistribution has increased its margin to 9.2% and left it seemingly safe.

  11. Mytwobobsworth

    See “Bet Against Mark Arbib”
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/

    It’s a brilliant analysis of how the NSW clubs anti-pokies pre-commitment campaign is down to Arbib not sensing it and heading it off. According to Andrew Elder it should have been an easy one to win, and now will probably have to be sorted out with a buying off.

    I think he’s pretty right and Arbib will have to go, albeit not before the carbon pricing and the pokies are bedded down. Can’t afford a sacking before then.

  12. Mtbw @67,

    I am pretty sure you will find every poll taken on the pokies issue strongly supports the governments policy. This is a fact overlooked constantly by the MSM.

    BTW, it is not a tax but a pre commitement approach to playing the machines.

    Clubs NSW do not want it pure and simple.

  13. [BK
    Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 8:31 am | Permalink
    GG
    It was low act of Hockey’s]
    It was more than a low act, it was a measure of the man (MASSIVE FAIL) and a measure of his intelligence (MASSIVE FAIL).

  14. It was early and I was half asleep, but I am pretty sure ABC24 had an advertisement for Telstra this morning. They were talking to some bloke about 4G?

    Seemed like an advertorial to me…very sad what the ABC has come to. I just feel this absolute void in information at the moment. It’s all fluff and banter…I miss news..

  15. …sssshhhh…don”t mention The Greens.

    [Actually, the point of the research is that U Labor people are closer to the Liberal voters than you are to Green voters.]

    After reading this intro I was convinced the Greens don’t exist!

  16. GD @71,

    Clubs NSW, in my opinion, would have opposed this reform no matter what discussions they had with the government. I really do not know what Arbib or anyone else could have done. Research is out there as part of the Productivity Commission report, heaps of other research is also available. Clubs NSW is just not interested.

    This whole campaign is, in my opinion, all about compensation from the government. You pay us and we will shut up.

    I think the government will negotiate some agreement with the clubs on this issue. So be it. The price you pay for staying in government perhaps.

  17. Fkn Kelly O’Dwyer rings in on 774 to comment on Jeff Kennett’s contradictory pro-pokies stance vs mental health issue and his anti-gay stance vs mental health issues

    but, but, but, says O’D, he’s coming to her electorate (ex-Peter Costello’s) on October to talk about mental health issues. He’s a champion. His word with BeyondBlue is beyond compare.

    When asked to comment specifically about the contradiction, she says: The point I am making is his invaluable contribution to raising awareness of mental health. Spare me.

  18. Space
    [Could you imagine having the Coalition buffoons represent us on the world stage. Talk about cultural cringe!]
    Aarrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Beam me up, Scotty.

  19. Dio
    [THE core social values of Labor voters are far more closely aligned with Coalition supporters than Greens, a new social cohesion survey finds.

    On a range of questions – such as valuing the “Australian way of life”, concern over immigration rates, the importance of migrants “blending in” and whether climate change is the nation’s most pressing problem – the response from Labor voters was more in sync with Coalition supporters than Greens.]
    Thanks and, sadly, that confirms my own views. I have felt for some years that the right wing of the Labor party is comprised of people with attitudes that are right wing by any standards, not just compared to the Liberals. The bitter determination to stick to an off-shore solution to refugee processing illustrates the problem. It looks like they have effectively squeezed other views out of the Labor Party, in much the same way as Howard did in the Liberals.

    To call the Labor party “progressive” is no longer true. They have pandered to Howard’s self-interested battlers for so long that they have adopted the same attitudes. Maybe they always were that way, and were just afraid to admit it. It makes much party policy a lie, so I won’t pretend to respect it. If the Labor party were likened to The Simpsons characters, they aren’t run by Lisa, or even Bart. They are run by the equivalent of Nelson Munce. I still support the ideals the Labor party was founded on, but I don’t think the party itself does. All they want is to stay in power. That is megalomania. A rational person would not want such people in power.

    The thing the right in Labor fail to comprehend is that, when taken too far, this strategy will see them lose. They will never convince the extreme right wingers to vote for them; it is a futile exercise. Meanwhile they continue to slide in first preference votes and bleed to the Greens. In the long term, as older Labor voters who don’t change their vote die off or get more outnumbered by younger voters who get used to voting for the Greens, it is foreseeable that the Greens will supplant Labor as a progressive force in Australian politics.

    IMO none of this is pre-ordained or inevitable. If a more centrist Labor leader had taken over it would have been possible to change course. Likewise if the Greens go back to less rational economic policies they will lose support to. (Though Brown was remarkably pragmatic in the GFC adn stimulus negotiations). But Labor shows no signs of reforming itself, with architects of the coup and the disastrous last election campaign still clinging to power like leaches (Bitar is gone but not the rest).

    At this point I think the rational choce for those of us interested in a modern progressive Australia, is to revert to the “flush the tank when its full” theory. Vote against the incumbent government every second election. I see I have become a swinging voter.

    Off to work for me.

  20. liyana
    [It was early and I was half asleep . . . . ABC and a Telstra advertorial]
    What you say doesn’t surprise me. And it is very sad how bad ABC reporting has become. I can only assume that ABC24 has gutted their financial ability to pay for quality journos, rather than opinionistas dressing up their thoughts as news.

    I’m pretty sure when I heard the analysis (lol) of the latest Newspoll on the fkn ABC, that the newsreader/reporter?? said the figures showed the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would hold the only ALP seat in Qld if a poll were held today.

    You what??? Maybe she said Foreign Minister, but I have my doubts. Slip of the tongue much?

    Unfortunately, I can’t be bothered reading the transcript. So, if I’m wrong, it was my ears. Then again I thought I heard them say Wayne Swan won the Brownlow. Maybe it’s time for a hearing test 🙂

  21. Mytwobobsworth – by no measure can this be called a tax. None whatsoever.

    All you do is say you won’t spend more
    Than $X a day on the bloody things.

  22. Two belated comments from yesterday.

    Mark Butler on Q&A was impressive. Kept his cool, knew his facts, argued well. He admitted that early days in QT were a bit overwhelming, but I think as he gains experience he will be a real asset to Labor.

    Eddie ‘Everywhere’ McGuire. I am reminded constantly of Joe Hockey. Friend of Big Business. Big man, smiling, but don’t cross him or he’ll roll you. Eveything I’ve read of EmcG’s actions within Collingwood Club has borne this out.

  23. [Dio
    . Rubbish. Its called. Now listen. U labor people. U know u should vote liberal]

    Why, anybody with an open mind would read the Australian beats ME!.

    It shows you are being led by the nose!.

  24. A short video interview on BBC which has the interviewer speechless…

    Lets all hope he is wrong.

    BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: “The Collapse Is Coming…And Goldman Rules The World”

    Alessio Rastani outlines in a mere three-and-a-half-minutes what we all know and most ignore.

    While the whole interview is worth watching, the money shot for us was “This economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait hoping it is going to go away, just like a cancer it is going to grow and it will be too late!”.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bbc-speechless-trader-tells-truth-collapse-comingand-goldman-rules-world

  25. I see two major problems for Labor at present. First, the anti-Labor swing has become entrenched and across the board and will be hard to claw back given the apparent general feeling in the community that we have a government not in control and being driven by minorities and independents. Even when there seems to be majority support for a particular issue (poker machines) this is still having an adverse affect on the government because it appears to be acting to appease an independent member and not to address the core issue (problem gambling). Secondly, there is strong resentment against the PM personally because of the carbon tax due to the pre-election promise/committment and the fact it has not been clearly demonstrated why Australia is implementing a comprehensive pricing/trading scheme in the absence of a global agreement to address emissions. This may change from July 2012 although I wouldn’t want to bet my house on it.

    There is a 2007 feel about things except the roles are reversed. I was convinced in early 2007 that Howard couldn’t come back because people had basically stopped listening even when he had a positive story to tell and I am starting to think that Gillard in 2011 is in the same situation.

    Abbott remains Labor’s best chance to turn things around however Labor need to stop feeding him issues to play on. I expect the 2012/2013 budget surplus may be the next issue Abbott uses to bash the government because it is looking increasingly difficult to return the budget to surplus given world economic uncertainties and lack of domestic business and consumer sentiment. Information published in the Financial Review yesterday shows that, other than mining and banking, the rest of the domestic economy is struggling at present. Unless The Reserve Bank more soon to reduce interest rates the domestic economy will continue to struggle in most areas.

  26. GG

    That article about Mr Hockey chops him into very, very small pieces. Bludgers knew it already, of course, but it is a pity it will not reach a wider audience.

    They should never have let Mr Hockey change out of short pants.

  27. http://www.vexnews.com/2011/09/drunken-duo-both-nt-senators-have-a-drinking-problem/

    [DRUNKEN DUO: Both NT Senators have a “drinking problem”
    By VEXNEWS ⋅ September 27, 2011

    Both Northern Territory Senators Labor’s Trish Crossin and the Country Liberal’s Nigel Scullion have been denounced as “alcoholics” by angry colleagues who’ve had a gutful of both of them.

    Scullion recently made headlines by revealing a private – and drunken – conversation the two had where she claimed (falsely, it seems) that Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd was close to “getting the numbers” to restore himself to the parliamentary leadership of his party.]

    Read the whole thing.

  28. SK

    Spot on.
    Social climber and bully.
    And sometime misogynist. I think he might have been one who ‘boned’ a female newsreader (not in the American sense).

  29. Ms Savva in today’s ‘The Australian’ has a wonderful suggestion for the Labor Party: Mr Rudd as leader. The plan would be that he would go straight to an election, win it, and get popular support for a carbon price. Get it?

    Can you troll in print or does it have to be online?

  30. Dio
    [Actually, the point of the research is that U Labor people are closer to the Liberal voters than you are to Green voters.]

    That’s like comparing the American Republicans with the Democrats.

    Rubbish!. Liberals build nothing and give Tax cuts, that’s all they are capable of!.

  31. The good thing about the Newspoll Quarterly figures is that they are not confusing. They are comprehensive and consistent.

    Labor is in deep do-do as far as the eye can see.

    Such is life but where there is life there is hope.

  32. kezza2

    With my luck, Geelong should PAY me to lay a big bet on Collingwood to win!

    An occasional MegaQuick is my limit; but I’ve seen betting (on horses) ruin family members’ lives. Though I think Wilkie’s motion is a long Nanny State stride too far; annoys a majority to save a minority from itself (and won’t cover pre-Pokie forms) I’ve seen players’ hypnotised look.

    Unlike old “One armed bandits”, nothing a player can do (except, perhaps, maths nerds, masters of tables of random numbers) will alter newer machines’ pre-set payouts. Their noises and benign images exploit (for huge profit) operant conditioning techniques even Beria’s Stalinist NKVD might have baulked at. So I’m willing to support pre-defined limits and high stakes machines, IF there’s regular research on efficacy built into the legislation. Good psych implies that most addicts, deprived of one source, will move to another.

    Ta re the roofing. We’re in a classic Drought and flooding rain … Her beauty and her terror area – destructive storms (esp hail storms), bushfires (on slopes too steep for controlled burning) to balance views and National & State Parks, their wildlife almost on our doorsteps (literally); so anything that can mitigate water & spark entry is worth the quite reasonable cost.

    Currently fogs of water & dust.

  33. Im with you kezza2 the ABC which has been my main source of news and current affairs for over 40 years is a joke atm.
    Just look how they cant get the latest news Newspoll on Lateline quick enough as if its some earth shattering event.

    I reckon some of their news editors have worked at News Ltd at some stage and it shows in their biased and sloppy reporting.They may as well just read the front page of the Australian on air and be done with it!

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