The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.
Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:
Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).
UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:
#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%
UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.
Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.
confessions – yes, or at least providing constructive dialogue. I betcha Keating is having a say behind the lines but is too loyal to air in public the stuff that Richardson and the others do. Keating knows what it does to his Party and shows his class by not having to back track on comments.
BTW – Devine should be asked about all the kids who grew up after WW1 & 2 in households run by 1 woman or 2 maiden Aunts Many of us experienced that and we didn’t turn into villains.
Danny,
Your avatar, your name and
in combo has me experiencing dissonance and laughter. Cheers 🙂
It will be very interesting to see the terms of reference
SK
If it were Danny with an “i”, would that help?
Was pleased to to see the GRNs polling 21% of the 18-24 bracket in this poll.
As for Gillard and the ALP – well… slowly slowly catchy monkey. The big negative (aside from the obvious) is the ALPs inability to cash in on managing the GFC, because of the change of leadership.
Darn
What is the cost of a Royal Commission?
Burgey
Not one to encourage gambling, but you can bet on Labor winning the election at $3.10 at sportsbet. The seat numbers won’t be available until closer to the election.
Victoria for loopy policies you dont need to look any further than the Climate Change Peoples Forum and East Timor solution both of which were crazy.
DavidWH
Why were they crazy?
victoria.
It depends on the terms of reference but a minimum of $5 million, I would think.
Because DavidWH says so
BigBob
That is actually a lot cheaper than I thought
why worry @ 143
Abbott always agrees with the last person he has spoken to, and is unembarrassed by the contradictions that are increasingly being pointed out to him by a regrettably still supine media that barely stirs themselves from their Murdoch-induced torpor except at the most flagrantly egregious examples of Abbott idiocy.
Being the populist weather-vane that he is, Abbott represents nothing, remembers nothing and will say anything rather than be confronted with having to explain his contradictory policy prescriptions. Witness his gormless performance yesterday, reminiscent of his Riley Stare, when he refused to answer journalist’s questions at a press conference, stammered a few incoherent mumbles then stared off into the distance, before wandering off in a daze of confusion and cackling by the assembled media hacks.
This man is manifestly unfit for the high office to which he aspires, and represents a clear and present danger to our democracy. Can we get Jack Ryan to take him down?
One can only hope that the Australian people will see fit to reject his agenda of fear and loathing when they get the chance in 2013.
Tuesday
National Health Reform Amendment (National Health Performance Authority) Bill 2011
Social Security and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2011
Tax Laws Amendment (2011 Measures No. 6) Bill 2011
Customs Amendment (Anti-dumping Improvements) Bill 2011
Wednesday
Australian Energy Market Amendment (National Energy Retail Law) Bill 2011
Education Services for Overseas Students (Registration Charges) Amendment Bill 2011
Education Services for Overseas Students Amendment (Registration Charges Consequentials) Bill 2011
Indigenous Affairs Legislation Amendment Bill 2011
Schools Assistance Amendment Bill 2011
Work Health and Safety Bill 2011
Work Health and Safety (Transitional and Consequential Provisions) Bill 2011
Thursday
Industrial Chemicals (Notification and Assessment) Amendment (Inventory) Bill 2011
Horse Disease Response Levy Bill 2011
Horse Disease Response Levy Collection Bill 2011
Horse Disease Response Levy (Consequential Amendments) Bill 2011
Main Committee
In the Main Committee it is planned to resume debate on the following Government business matters:
Wednesday (from 9.30am to approximately 1pm)
Competition and Consumer Legislation Amendment Bill 2011
Thursday (from 9.30am to approximately 1pm)
TBA
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/house_news/thisweek.htm
“historic drop” in power consumption
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-15/power-consumption-makes-historic-drop/2839394
jill hall on 92.5 abc, explaining the thommo ambush
clubs nsw is scum
Kudos to Mr Thomson for fronting Clubs NSW.
They are a powerful enemy
Lefty e,
The Pink Batts are working.
one comment about this Neilsen poll:
How can Victoria secede from the rest of you lib-loving lot?
We’ll take Tassie with us and call our new nation “The Civilised South” – but we’ll have to have good border protection too keep all of the remaining Australians out. A detention centre on Philip Island may be needed.
gusface
Can you elaborate
Thanks for that, Victoria. I’ve always liked Stephen Loosely and I remember now why 🙂
Kidette: would it help if I changed my avatar to Paul Keating and stopped talking about the children? 😉
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/feedarticle/9797229
Brown hits at ‘politicised press’
danny i think is a lady i think
very good cover there i always thought the opp,
SF,
Phillip Island is too good for them – might I suggest Macquarie Island?
sustainable future
Hear hear!
no its great to see JUlia, I think its julia have to put my stronger glasses on
better than winston churchill to annoy glen we should all have paul keating or JUlia
now would not that be fun,
at macquarie they are cleaning up the rabbitts did you know that they have eaten most of the vegetation
as much as i love rabbitts on embroidery and in the garden, they realy made a mess of macquarie
SF,
Take a look at this, if that isn’t a deterrent, I don’t know what is!
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/macquarie-island
sustainable future, i welcome our new Victorian overlords
my say,
I’ve followed the Macquarie Island tragedy – plenty of mismanagement all round.
http://www.google.com.au/#hl=en&source=hp&q=picture+of++macquarie+island+and+the+rabbitt+plague&btnG=Google+Search&rlz=1R2ADSA_enAU332&oq=picture+of++macquarie+island+and+the+rabbitt+plague&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=s&gs_upl=2859l17609l0l19094l61l50l2l29l2l1l515l3561l2-3.4.2.1l10l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=187b5d0621fc36b1&biw=1024&bih=509
Some good articles on the al Jazeera website – here’s one on America’s right of centre president:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/20118118104193363.html
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=180710335706#ht_500wt_1015
Bargain!
Sustainable Future: we South Australians can come along as well. I think the majority of us still love Julia 😉
paritybit 😆 I wonder how long it will stay up on eBay?
party bit
hope some one buys it and and bins it
Yes Big Bop, took them to long to decide what to do, in my opinion,
now they are down there doing what they should of done years ago,
but there is move a foot to take a the antarctic department to Canberra.
we will have to lobby hard to stop that one.
Dave @127
Checked Robb’s website and twitter. He seems to be missing in action. Overseas trip perhaps?
Kevin,
He spoke about the $70 bill black hole the other day.
I think it’s a pity the original super profits tax was scuttled too. But Gillard’s legislation at least gets the rich miners paying something – and who’s to say this is not just the thin edge of the wedge. Is there any reason why a determined future Labor government couldn’t sell the idea of a super mining tax to the electorate, particularly if the likes of Gina and others keep announcing such massive profits.
Speaking of pink bats, I got my house done and so did my brother and both lots are “working” just fine.
Darn
My parents got theirs done, and it has made a dramatic difference for them
Classic!
According to the latest poll, most people want Rudd and Turnbull.
It is unclear if that is dead or alive.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wanted-rudd-turnbull-rematch-20110814-1it3a.html
Here is link
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-dig-a-hole-for-tony-abbott-on-farmers-rights/story-fn59niix-1226115073087
GG
The voters want Rudd/Turnbull atm. If they actually had them, they would then want someone else. The grass is always greener…….
Danny,
Don’t change a thing. It always makes me laugh! 😀
Greensborough Growler
It’s their black hole anyway. Robb could start eliminating waste by giving back his printing allowance since it’s only used for mindless propaganda. The highlight was when he published the Times Table.