Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.

Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:

Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).

UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:

#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%

UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.

Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  2. Oh dear. News are drowning in lies.

    [The company also faces a new claim that it misled parliament. In earlier evidence to the select committee, in answer to questions about whether it had bought Goodman’s silence, it had said he was paid off with a period of notice plus compensation of no more than £60,000. The new paperwork, however, reveals that Goodman was paid a full year’s salary, worth £90,502.08, plus a further £140,000 in compensation, plus £13,000 to cover his lawyer’s bill. Tom Watson said: “It’s hush money. I think they tried to buy his silence.” Murdoch’s executives have always denied this.]

  5. [The difference was Howard didn’t change his mind exactly after the election]
    Yes he did. He invented “core” and “non-core” promises remember, which is what he used to justify big spending cuts after the 1996 election. He didn’t mention ANY of those cuts during the campaign, in fact, he repeatedly said that he wouldn’t cut spending on health at all, because in the late 1980s he had repeatedly said that Medicare should be “dismantled”.

    After the 2004 election, the Howard government changed the Medicare safety net thresholds which made 40,000 people ineligible for full payment for their medications. During the election campaign Howard and Abbott had repeatedly stated that the thresholds wouldn’t be changed, but it turned out they already knew that the cost of the program had blown out.

    There are plenty of flat out lies that Howard got away with for a while.

    [as Gillard was forced to with dealing with the Greens and Indies to stay in the Lodge. Howard then waited till the following election before implementing his new tax so the people could vote on it, something Gillard wont do or can’t do.]
    Gillard hasn’t imposed a carbon tax, she is imposing a fixed priced ETS.

    Tony Abbott’s lies don’t change that fact.

  8. my say

    Elder says at the bottom of his article:
    [I don’t have a solution to this issue either. Not being a Liberal any more I do have respect for those who are working to find one. I have no respect for those clogging up the country’s political offices and just fighting one corner, confusing themselves with lobbyists; or trying to be all things to everyone, or ignoring the issue while jonesing for the magic headline/TV image that will render us all as forgetful as they.]

    He must have resigned from the Liberal party.
    Or at least that’s the way I read it.

  12. [2149 gusface
    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
    Jemima_Khan Jemima Khan
    by KJBar
    Just heard that news emerging that Coulson was being paid by News International all the time he was at No 10. Can anyone confirm]

    Now, that would be devastatingly too explosive!

  14. victoria,

    I love people who sit in judgement of others but can’t handle it when they cop it in return. She is a pompous ass.

  15. James and Roos chickens are about to come home to roost, trouble is they are now the size of emus and about to kick the house down. 😆

  16. If this leads to anything substantial I will be very surprised.
    Remember there are probably just as many powerful influential people who will assist the Murdochs, payback for favours, as there are those who wish them gone.
    The only real justice will come from the public if they feel angered enough to boycott all News Corp interests. This could come if something that tugs on the psyche of Brits is exposed, something along the lines of News Corp using information to strong arm Princess Di.

  17. [Yes he did. He invented “core” and “non-core” promises remember, which is what he used to justify big spending cuts after the 1996 election. He didn’t mention ANY of those cuts during the campaign, in fact, he repeatedly said that he wouldn’t cut spending on health at all, because in the late 1980s he had repeatedly said that Medicare should be “dismantled”.]

    Well it’s hardly his fault. When he and Cossie had a look at the books they found a $96b debt and a $10b budget deficit. All thanks to Labor.

    Shows…she could have had an ETS without the Carbon Tax/Price for 2 years and she’d be apples. She didnt and now people think she’s a liar.

  20. SK

    What gets me about Miranda is that she is somehow suggesting that those who have criticised her piece, have misunderstood it somehow wtf!

  22. drake

    [Would Ms Brooks have been present at the editorial meetings to which Goodman refers?]

    Unlikely. She left in 2003. The letter was written in 2007.

  27. [Would Ms Brooks have been present at the editorial meetings to which Goodman refers?]
    No. Newspaper editors never attend editorial meetings.

  34. LouiseMensch Louise Mensch
    As the press goes through the documents: 1. Names, eg of NOTW staff, are redacted

    LouiseMensch Louise Mensch
    2. Mr Goodman makes very serious allegations that everybody knew what he was doing, NOTW rejected those allegations

  39. So, if News International (the UK arm of News Ltd??) were paying hush money to Goodman, and have not been entirely straight shall we say in their testimony to the UK parliament, then how may that affect them in the US?? I thought that the US takes a dim view of companies based there bribing people at least.

  40. [Most Australians knew that Howard was a liar, but that didn’t stop him winning 4 elections

    The difference was Howard didn’t change his mind exactly after the election]

    Glen, Sparrow,

    Incorrect. Take the 2004 election for example. On the day he launched their IR policy he said he didn’t expect to make major changes.

    After the election – major changes. Biggest changes in a hundred years. SerfChoices down on people’s heads like a bolt (pun) out of the blue.

  42. Gus, what have I done now?

    Gillard should say that she didn’t have a crystal ball to know that she would lead a minority government.

    She said sh’d put a price on carbon, and the carbon scheme was the most suitable option under the circumstances.

  43. LouiseMensch Louise Mensch
    3. Harbottle & Lewis were asked to check emails relating to the period Goodman alleges he was supported by senior staff
    ..

    LouiseMensch Louise Mensch
    4. It seems NI did know H&L would only say allegations not proven and not that there was no reasonable evidence (I paraphrase)

  44. Cuppa

    Yes the exact policy of Workchoices was not taken as an IR policy to the 2004 election. Correct.

    However elements of Workchoices ie: unfair dismissal was pushed through unsuccessfully throughout the previous terms of the Howard Govt hence it was their policy position.

  45. [What is up with Miranda? Does she live in an alternate universe?]

    No she just occupies a planet on the extremities of the universe. Over there, on the far far right, not far from Janet’s planet.

  46. [Unlikely. She left in 2003. The letter was written in 2007.]

    The letter refers to prior events. What, in the letter, excludes the period preceding 2003?

  47. [Well it’s hardly his fault. When he and Cossie had a look at the books they found a $96b debt and a $10b budget deficit. All thanks to Labor.]
    Oh, so changed circumstances is an excuse for the Coalition, but not for Labor (when their changed circumstance is a minority government which means they have no other option but to negotiate!)

    That’s hypocrisy.

    [Shows…she could have had an ETS without the Carbon Tax/Price for 2 years and she’d be apples. She didnt and now people think she’s a liar.]
    What the crap are you going on about? An ETS IS a price on carbon!

    A carbon tax is a price on carbon too, but the government’s policy is ACTUALLY an ETS where for the first 3 years the permits have a fixed price, but then after that there will be a floating price (between upper and lower limits).

    Now it is the Coalition’s policy which is tax and spend socialism, their policy is the anti-market alternative.

    You can’t have an ETS if all the permits are FREE! That would be completely pointless!

    I think you need to actually read the government’s policy document instead of relying on the Tony Abbott misinformation version of the policy:
    http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/securing-a-clean-energy-future

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