Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.

Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:

Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).

UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:

#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%

UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.

Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Labor must fix this lie business.

    I’m not sure Centre that they can fix the lie business. I think it’s gone past the point where perhaps they could have countered it.

    If any one thing is going to end the Gillard Government it’s the trust issue which is going to cause the greatest damage.
    ]

    Cupcake,

    Just like Unca Howie and Workchoices he ? 🙂

  2. [Labor must fix this lie business.

    If they go to the election with Julya and not Julia, they will lose!]
    Once the CT is in and the fear goes so called “lie” will be a thing of the past. Abbott has his own trust issues to worry about which will only get worse.

  4. [If any one thing is going to end the Gillard Government it’s the trust issue which is going to cause the greatest damage.]

    Rabbott has an inability to talk truthfully about any issue, cannot discuss policy detail, yet, it is likely he will be our next PM.
    And the country is hung up on one perceived lie?

    It’s a mad, mad world!

  5. sk news dont have that many payed watchers centre
    and most would be libs any way,

    yes it s annoying i know but i think it past its use by date the same as kev and julia thing now that ann. past no mention of it any more,

  7. Frank

    Your comments show that you have no suggestions for Ms Gillard to counter the ‘lie’ business re: Carbon Tax.

    Yes you feel like saying but Howie lied first!!! But saying that doesnt help your side.

  8. i think we need Mr windsor to come out an say over and over again as he did
    the ind. wanted the pollution tax, ect.

    so of course our PM courageous as she is took the high road and the hard roadl
    of course abbott would not have a bar of it and look what happened to his negotations .

    MR. windsor did mention this some weeks ago

  9. Dee if Abbott promises not to do something before the next election and then does it afterwards he’d lose in 2016. He’d deserve to lose too IMHO.

  10. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    Your comments show that you have no suggestions for Ms Gillard to counter the ‘lie’ business re: Carbon Tax.

    Yes you feel like saying but Howie lied first!!! But saying that doesnt help your side.
    ]

    and Cupcake goes into woe is me mode.

    How surprisement.

  12. sparrow we are not sayhing that at all your a typical liberal

    actully at this point of time we are far more interested in the tories problems in the uk

  18. Andrew Elder with some more prescient commentary:

    [The main threat to the Libs and Nats is not the Greens in themselves. Your standard urban Greens activists, with their multiple piercings and scent of patchouli, are going to experience a slight increase in the Green vote in rural electorates but can hardly claim authentic leadership of particular local communities and organic representation of their concerns. The main threat posed by the Greens is that they funnel preferences away from the Coalition toward local people who had not been particularly political but who decide to take a stand on this issue, and who get swept up in activism to the point where they start knocking off Libs and Nats from key political positions (and, who have been forced from a livelihood compromised by aggressive miners whose half-baked PR strategy annoys more than it allays). ]

    and

    [As usual, Abbott is trying to cover all bases. If he faced the sort of light-and-fluffy media coverage he has enjoyed throughout his career, and if “punters” take their media at face value as the journosphere would assume, he would get away with that. On this issue, however, hard choices must be made – and Tony Abbott cannot make them. ]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/08/fracking-politics.html

  20. I reckon News Limited will be out of business by the 2013 election the way this phone hacking scandal has gone (I have little doubt that they will find something in the USA which would effectively destroy News Corporation)

  24. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
    Andrew Elder with some more prescient commentary:]

    i am wondering does glen and evan know andrew elder is a liberal

  26. Just got back from CFS training, caught up with the evening’s posts and now off to bed. Let’s hope the Murdoch’s are all covered in merde overnight.
    Night all!

  29. [Dee if Abbott promises not to do something before the next election and then does it afterwards he’d lose in 2016. He’d deserve to lose too IMHO.]

    GS,

    TA has had so many positions on every subject that he has all bases covered.

  31. [It is very tempting to retort that all the bigger cover-ups are still covered-up.]

    thats why they are coverups

    if we knew what the truth was they would be a coverdown

  32. [TA has had so many positions on every subject that he has all bases covered.]

    Also he can defend himself by saying it wasnt written down so it’s not the gospel truth 😆

    What a joke.

  35. [How does that help Ms Gillard counter the ‘lie business’?]
    Most Australians knew that Howard was a liar, but that didn’t stop him winning 4 elections (oh, and losing 2).

  40. confessions

    I know OPT has been on top of the fracking issue as well as Murdoch for many months now. She is no doubt a very smart and perceptive person. Look where things stand today. Truly amazing.
    Elder makes many pertinent points. There are so many factors involved here. What is the best way forward?

  43. [Most Australians knew that Howard was a liar, but that didn’t stop him winning 4 elections]

    The difference was Howard didn’t change his mind exactly after the election as Gillard was forced to with dealing with the Greens and Indies to stay in the Lodge. Howard then waited till the following election before implementing his new tax so the people could vote on it, something Gillard wont do or can’t do.

  45. [mirandadevine Miranda Devine
    by TommyTudehope
    Distorting what my column says, telling lies about what I wrote just makes you look stupid, dishonest, spineless & desperate for offence
    ]

  47. [I’d rather be Julia than James]

    [And how.]

    Julia’s statement was one of intention, not binding at law and made to the general public.

    James was giving evidence to a select committee of the House of Commons.

  50. [Gary Sparrow

    Posted Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Most Australians knew that Howard was a liar, but that didn’t stop him winning 4 elections

    The difference was Howard didn’t change his mind exactly after the election as Gillard was forced to with dealing with the Greens and Indies to stay in the Lodge. Howard then waited till the following election before implementing his new tax so the people could vote on it, something Gillard wont do or can’t do.
    ]

    Bulldust Cupcake.

    And you well know it.

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