Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition

The Fairfax broadsheets report this month’s Nielsen result has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 58-42, from primary votes of 28 per cent for Labor (up two), 48 per cent for the Coalition (down three) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up one). Although a bad result for Labor by any measure, this is nonetheless an improvement on their 61-39 from Nielsen the previous month, and it maintains a trend evident throughout this year of Nielsen being a few points worse for Labor than all other pollsters. It accordingly sits quite well with the 56-44 Newspoll and what I am interpreting as a 57-43 result from the substantial Morgan phone poll released on Friday.

Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have risen slightly from the canvas: her approval rating is up four to 38 per cent with disapproval down five to 57 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down four on approval to 43 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent. Abbott maintains a 47-44 lead as preferred prime minister, down from 51-40 last time. Michelle Grattan’s report tells us Labor has a 52-48 two-party lead in Victoria, compared with a 55-45 deficit in last month’s poll, and that the Coalition lead in Queensland is 65-35, down from 68-32 last time. It should be remembered here that state-level results are from small samples. Further from Grattan:

Victoria … is also where Ms Gillard has a big lead as preferred PM – she is ahead by a hefty 51-40 per cent; in New South Wales she is ahead by 46-43 per cent. By contrast, in Queensland … Ms Gillard is behind as preferred PM 36-55 per cent. In Western Australia, she is behind Mr Abbott 33-57 per cent. Voters are disillusioned with the current leaders as economic managers. Almost three in 10 (29 per cent each) think former leaders Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turnbull would be ”best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs”. Mr Abbott was rated as best by 21 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Ms Gillard. A total of 58 per cent prefer a leader other than the current leaders. People remain strongly against the government’s carbon price, with opposition to it steady on 56 per cent and support at 39 per cent. Backing for the carbon price is highest among the Greens (79 per cent) and ALP voters (68 per cent); overwhelmingly, Coalition voters are opposed (82 per cent). More than a quarter of Labor voters are against the carbon price, and one in five Green voters. Regional voters are more likely to oppose the carbon price (62 per cent) than city voters (53 per cent).

UPDATE: Gordon Graham on Twitter:

#Nielsen best to manage another economic crisis if one occurs: Rudd 29%, Turnbull 29%, Abbott 21%, Gillard 15%

UPDATE 2: Full results from Nielsen here. The Coalition two-party vote is 58 per cent in New South Wales (down one on last month), 48 per cent in Victoria (down seven), 65 per cent in Queensland (down three), 61 per cent in South Australia/Northern Territory (steady) and 61 per cent in Western Australia (down two), remembering that the smaller states especially come from small samples. Labor has a better overall result on respondent-allocated preferences (56-44, a five-point improvement) than on the previous-election measure, and while I don’t recommend reading much into this, it’s interesting to note how different this is from Morgan, which has consistently had Labor doing worse on respondent-allocated preferences throughout this year.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has the Coalition lead unchanged at 57-43 on two-party preferred, Labor has gained a point on the primary vote to 31 per cent, but the Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. As with Nielsen, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have rebounded from a diabolical result a month ago: most encouragingly for her, this is the first poll since June 14 (Newspoll and Essential results from the same day) in which she has led Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, now leading 38-36 after trailing 37-39 last month. Gillard’s approval is up six to 35 per cent and her disapproval down seven to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is down two to 37 per cent and up one to 50 per cent.

Tellingly, 47 per cent of respondents say they think it “likely” there will be “another global financial crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2009” against 39 per cent who think it “about 50/50”, with only 8 per cent opting for “not very likely”. In that event, 40 per cent would more trust the Liberals to deal with it against 31 per cent for Labor and 20 per cent no difference, while 36 per cent would favour stimulus spending in response against 39 per cent who would not. For all that, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well in recent years against 39 per cent who rate it as poor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 comments on “Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. only from one poll victoria now ( well sort of ) . may be the libs have done some interal polling and its closer to the morgan one

  2. WTF

    dont know what happened there

    🙁

    basically morris is normally cool calm and collected

    today he started to sound shrill and a bit “grasping at straws’

  5. What on earth is Morris trying to say? The connections escape me.
    [“The Uniting Church, St. Vincent’s Hospital and the Coca-Cola Company”]

  7. Poor old Jason Dufner (great name) channelling Greg Norman at the US PGA.

    3 up with 3 to play he is now 2 behind in the playoff to Keegan Bradley who fulfils the American fashion for giving their children surnames for first names.

  8. BB if you are there.
    Looking at the leadership stats above , it reminds me of the reality shows where we get to vote off the people we don’t like.
    Looks like Abbort and Gillard..its time for you to go.
    Rudd and Turnbull come on down.
    As you suggested the other day..politics has become a reality show with the msm the nasty judges, and just like on reality TV it soon becomes all about the judges, the contestants are there as a vehicle for the judges to show how clever they are.
    Stranger than fiction!

  9. Gus

    [basically morris is normally cool calm and collected

    today he started to sound shrill and a bit “grasping at straws’]

    I was listening as well and your remarks are spot on.

    As I said yesterday I think Abbott will be up for the jump shortly and Malcolm will do him slowly.

  13. 132 – Gorgeous Dunny – You’re not suggesting Howard rose to lead the Liberal Party in the 80s then the 90s because his father may have sympathised with the New Guard, which had pretty well died out un the 1930s are you?

  14. Cuppa:

    1. the polls this far out from an election aren’t necessarily indicative of the election outcome, ala Keating in 93.

    2. despite minority govt Labor is positioning itself in the centre, being attacked by both the Greens and the Liberals. Malaysia deal, Tas forestry agreement etc. With the carbon price, the govt is achieving good policy. This is where the govt should be, ala Keating’s observations that good policy IS good politics

    3. the economy will come back to the fore where Labor has far more substance than the coalition, who simply oppose rather than engage or offer any credible alternative.

  15. Confessions – thanks. Loosley handles Peter Reith really well when they’re on Agenda together. He quietly and calmly lands good blows when Reith is blustering and ranting.

    Loosley’s comments about Labor are always constructive even when speaking of issues which are really negative within the community.

    Caught Abbott’s press conference this morning. He’s backpedalling at 60 miles a minute on the coal stream gas issue with the Greens.

  17. [Kerin was a very good minister in the Hawke/Keating years!
    I don’t know what the world’s coming to when Labor stalwarts in here are so complacent about a poll which shows the ALP losing by a country mile – what if Gillard’s stocks aren’t much better in 12 months time, as you all expect?]

    how much you wanna bet ?

  19. My Say. More on the Old Guard on the 20s & 30s. Well worth reading this bio. The more visible & extreme New Guard got the press, but the Old Guard had the manpower. They were active in Voctoria as well.

    http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/scott-william-john-rendell-8373

    [Scott became deeply concerned about the possibility of socialist revolution in Australia and was an active polemicist in various Empire loyalist and returned soldiers’ organizations. In 1921-23 he held executive office in The King and Empire Alliance. In 1926 he joined the committee of the Constitutional Association of New South Wales. Intermittently an active militia officer, he was also prominent in the foundation of the Sydney branch of Legacy in 1926 and in 1929 topped the voting for membership of the State council of the Returned Sailors’ and Soldiers’ Imperial League of Australia.

    At the same time Scott was a central figure in clandestine counter-revolutionary preparations to ensure that if Australian workers emulated Lenin’s Bolsheviks they would have to face an antipodean ‘White Army’. In May 1921 Scott was prominently involved in a dramatic episode in the Sydney Domain when excited ‘loyalists’ stormed socialist platforms. Next year he probably met the visiting English writer, D. H. Lawrence; the character Jack Callcott in Lawrence’s novel Kangaroo (1923) may have been based on Scott. Callcott’s characteristics—lean, delicate features, solid frame with broad shoulders, a streak of violence beneath outward bonhomie—led the Killara bridge and social circles in which Scott later moved to believe that he had been immortalized in print.

    In November 1925, acting on the instructions of Prime Minister S. M. (Viscount) Bruce, Scott selected 500 ex-A.I.F. men to assist the police should plans to deport the union leaders Tom Walsh and Jacob Johnson instigate a violent response from the labour movement. In 1931 Scott became chief of staff of the 30,000-strong Old Guard, a predominantly rural secret army sworn to defend ‘law and order’ in the event of civil government collapsing. His work for the Old Guard was Scott’s most notable achievement, but in the final resort its activities were subversive of its professed commitment to democratic values. Scott’s role in Premier J. T. Lang’s dismissal is uncertain. Scott’s uncle Sir Philip Street, lieutenant-governor and chief justice of New South Wales, warned Governor Sir Philip Game that ‘the public may take violent action if the present condition is allowed to continue for long’. Scott came very close to mobilizing the Old Guard and the governor’s decision to intervene was influenced by his perception that sections of the public were indeed contemplating ‘violent action’. Even after the Old Guard’s disbandment in August 1932, a nucleus of its leaders held meetings in Scott’s office.]

  21. Labor’s best chance of winning the next election has always revolved around Tony Abbott and whether he can control his ability to come out with loopy statements. Offsetting this is Gillard’s ability to come out with loopy policy ideas. I’m not sure which is worse.

  26. Victoria
    [Mumble on Abbott]

    Abbott the ‘conviction politican’? It was always a News Ltd created moniker to help make him more palatable to the electorate. Mumble might care to remember his nickname was “weathervane” after all.

  29. [THE Coalition may find it harder than it imagines to slash $70 billion from government spending.

    A report from the Centre for Policy Development – an independently-funded “progressive” think tank – finds the Commonwealth public service no bigger than it was 20 years ago.

    “Our analysis contradicts the prevailing rhetoric about a burgeoning public service,” writes the research director James Whelan in the report released this morning. It says about one-third of the public service workforce was retrenched between 1991 and 1999, under the Howard and Keating governments. “Most of these retrenchments happened in the early years of the Howard government when it sacked almost 30,000 staff over three years.

    “Although staffing levels have almost returned … to 1991 levels, the … population has increased more rapidly.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service-same-size-as-20-years-ago-20110814-1it39.html#ixzz1V3KRMiAA

  30. [JohnBirmingham John Birmingham
    I suppose I’ll have to respond to Miranda Devine for tomorrow’s blog. I’m already feeling tired and preemptively soiled.
    ]

  32. lizzie,

    For you:

    [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    All you small govt fans, the Public Service is the same size as it was in 1991. So Tone you are sacking public servants because…? #auspol
    [

  33. [
    Abbott the ‘conviction politican’? It was always a News Ltd created moniker to help make him more palatable to the electorate. Mumble might care to remember his nickname was “weathervane” after all.
    ]

    He has

    [
    It’s a long, long time ago now, but when Tony Abbott surprised everyone by becoming opposition leader in December 2009 he was immediately described by supporters and journalists—and himself—as a “conviction politician”.
    ]

    ….

    [
    Howard as a “conviction politician” was one of the great ruses of contemporary politics—you only have to ask yourself whether he was more or less politically courageous than, say, Paul Keating or Bob Hawke and the edifice crumbles—but it was (and remains) an article of faith among the political class.

    In reality an opposition leader who convinces people he or she has deeply-held views which they would, if given a chance, put into policy regardless of popular opinion or expert advice, is a scary one. If that leader is Abbott then make that “horrifying”.

    Luckily for Tony, no one believed him and he seems to have realised it was a bad idea anyway. By the time of the election campaign we were hearing nothing about it.

    In 2011 there would not be a person in the country who does not think Abbott’s only goal is to become prime minister, that his bellowing about the “great big new tax” comes entirely on opportunism.
    ]

    …..

    [
    That pretty much says it all. The Coalition’s huge opinion polls come not from any positive feelings towards Abbott, but negative ones towards the government, which he devotes his energy to encouraging. He doesn’t care if people reckon he’s a shameless opportunist just so long as those big opinion poll leads keep rolling in.

    There’s nothing wrong with that. But perhaps you can be too much of a weathervane. Allowing a radio announcer to push you into a new policy direction might be an example of that.
    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/what_happened_to_abbott_the_conviction_politician/

  35. BH:

    Whether one agrees with Loosley or not, isn’t it refreshing to read former Labor MPs actually defending the party? I’m so used to seeing the Della Boscas, the Gary Johns and the Graham Richardsons who all get their space in the media by bagging the govt.

  37. SK

    Thank you. 🙂 I think it pulls the rug from Hockey’s nonsense. The cuts have already been made (especially from Howard, who gutted them).

  38. Bushfire Bill @ 71

    [It’s a love/hate thing. Just a 10 minute heart starter.

    How you could listen to the fluffer for hours at a time is beyond me.]

    Listening to ‘The Parrot’ is still a potential health hazard, in my view. Any contact with the noisome effluvia seething in the pit of ordure that is talkback radio carries a risk of infection with the imbecile virus that courses through the veins of professional liars like Alan Jones.

    Better to have a nice cuppa and a bit of a lie down, rather than chance even a brief encounter with the racist cretins and bigoted zealots infesting the airwaves at the home of hate mongery, 2GB.

  40. lizzie,

    It has hit a nerve. It has been retweeted by quite a few of my followers already. I will run it again this afternoon to get a bit more traction.

    This kind of stuff is great for pulling the rug from TA’s BS fairy stories.

  44. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Busy day again, here; so only dropping in (& out).

    [They should be stripped of Parliamentary Pension and be put on normal pension.]

    zoidlord, (1) the Parliamentary scheme is, in fact, a superannuation scheme to which politicians contribute. (2) It is, therefore, covered by laws re superannuation schemes, in particular, Federal Public Servants superannuation schemes. (3) Like PS schemes, it is (as far as I recall, but I could be wrong) funded from the Future Fund. (4) It could not be removed without leaving either it or other super funds open to HCA challenges.

    [OPT. If you are around, I would like your views on the CSG mining issue.]

    Victoria, Malcolm Farr’s Punch article does mention some of the problems, inc

    1 *centuries’ old laws
    *the sheer number of decades most of those areas have been designated “extractive” (eg mining & quarrying) – about 9 in many cases
    * these areas have been mined for many decades – the oil & gas pipelines from Surat Basin were built in the 1960s
    * that only very recently – in the main since Anna Bligh, OpPolls to the contrary, won Election2009, and mining companies & related processors moved in – have farmers who had lobbied for it at the time JohBP announced the new power plant Taroong), “discovered” that, hey, those leases would be worked

    2. The possible effects on the Darling River and Great Artesian Basins – now this is very a new realisation of their importace, and was used to get Greens involved

    3. That coal-seam gas is actually a “green” alternative to coal; so it’s use in Oz and export abroad will drastically reduce our State & National (& China’s & Japan’s) carbon footprints through reduced emissions and earned export carbon credits

    4. The ethical dilemma, the horns of which are “greener, cleaner energy” and “protect prime As land & essential water sources

    5. The political dilemmas involved in 1-4 above.

    Must rush; my (fairly decrepit) chariot awaits. Excuse typos etc plz

  48. Sorry, been away from my computer again. Damn children and housework! 😉

    Victoria: I know you linked the article, but I can’t access any Murdoch site because I installed the “Murdoch Blocked” programme via Google Chrome. I’m not alone in this; many others (including other Bludgers, I thought) have installed this programme.

    This is why I asked whether you could cut and paste any News Limited article for those of us in that position. Or even just because it will deprive Murdoch’s rags of their traffic.

    Call it News Limited civil disobedience, if you will. 😉

    Obviously any Fairfax publication isn’t a problem, only the Murdoch ones.

    Cheers.

  50. Danny Lewis

    I see

    [PAUL Keating paid the Gillard government an enormous compliment recently when he bracketed the initiative to price carbon with the landmark economic and social reforms for which he was largely responsible during the Hawke-Keating years.

    At one stroke, Keating legitimised the present Labor government as a continuing reform administration, in the tradition set by Labor ever since Chris Watson was sworn in as prime minister.

    This is more than a matter of curiosity for future generations of Australian historians. Keating’s endorsement went to the core identity of federal Labor, under challenge since the indecisive election result of 2010, buttressing its claim to be the “agent of change” in Australian politics.

    Perhaps more significantly, Keating’s endorsement offers the federal ALP a clear path forward and a renewed sense of purpose. For a party hard-pressed in the polls, this provides more than a welcome boost in morale. It suggests that political recovery may still be possible, based on a simple reaffirmation of self-respect.

    RELATED COVERAGE
    VIDEO: Gillard narrows lead in Nielsen poll
    We’re passionate about carbon too: Abbott
    The Australian, 15 Jul 2011
    Abbott brushes off Keating attack on him
    The Australian, 15 Jul 2011
    Carbon tax a hard sell: PM
    Courier Mail, 28 Jun 2011
    PM has time to dig herself out of hole
    The Australian, 16 Jun 2011
    MPs stick by Gillard despite poll slump
    The Australian, 15 Jun 2011

    Three elements are critical to a gradual recovery in the ALP’s federal fortunes.

    First, the polls may be grim but politics is studded with results the polls missed completely, beginning with the 1948 US presidential election, where the Gallup organisation famously stopped polling months before the election because governor Tom Dewey was unbeatable.

    Contrary to the famous headline in the Chicago Tribune, Dewey did not defeat president Harry S. Truman.

    Bring the observation forward to 1991 when President George H. W. Bush was enjoying stratospheric approval ratings after the first Gulf War.

    Senior Democrats decided to stay out of the presidential race, leaving the field clear for a promising Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton to run, and win.

    Fleet Street produced a typically coarse prediction for the 1970 British election, to the effect that Labour prime minister Harold Wilson would win “provided he wasn’t found in bed with a live man or a dead woman”. Neither occurred but Wilson still lost to Ted Heath’s Tories.

    To Australia, where Keating won an unwinnable poll in 1993 and John Howard returned from oblivion twice in 1998 and 2001. In the earlier election, Howard had actually told his family that his government had been defeated, based on flawed exit polls.

    So the polls should never dictate a government’s playbook. Policy rigour must be the touchstone of reference.

    And a sense of integrity, in not reacting to polls like the proverbial weathervane, engenders an electoral respect for a government, which incrementally shifts opinion over time.

    Second, the difficult issues confronting federal Labor, primarily the consequence of minority government, are now crystallising and are capable of a degree of resolution.

    Minister Chris Bowen has fashioned an agreement with Malaysia on asylum-seekers, which sends an unambiguous message to those criminals engaged in people smuggling.

    It will take some time to settle as policy, particularly given the legal challenges, but in all probability, it will work. A regional consensus should then prove negotiable.

    Federal Labor now finds itself attacked on the issue of asylum-seekers by the Coalition on the hard Right and the Greens on the far Left. This is precisely the ground that Labor should occupy, clearly defined and with policy integrity underpinning its argument. The same now applies with the Tasmanian forestry deal: Greens and Liberals both attacking an outcome that provides a long-term solution.

    This may not be a version of Dick Morris’s “triangulation”, by which president Bill Clinton differentiated himself sufficiently to win a second term in 1996, but there are similarities.

    Next year, carbon pricing becomes a reality. Contrary to opposition charges, the sky will not fall and Western civilisation will not end.

    On the contrary, Australian leadership on this issue brings opportunity for Australians, just as the Hawke-Keating economic liberalisation not only led globally, but also resulted in many Australians becoming skilled and active participants in international markets.

    With a little clear water, Australian politics will shift back on to economic matters, where the Labor government has clear strength. Ironically, this residual strength has been reinforced by the dismal news from both the US and Europe of late.

    Most finance ministers abroad would trade places with Wayne Swan in a heartbeat, given Australia’s public finances, figures for growth and employment and the investment pipeline that is apparent.

    There are flat spots, such as retailing, but the question voters always ask themselves is who should hold the national accounts in trying times? The people who kept Australia out of recession during the global financial crisis or those who liken us foolishly to Greece? The government that is determined to return to surplus or an opposition that denounces a budget as “class warfare” but then quietly votes for it?

    For if Gillard Labor is in a reform tradition, the Abbott opposition is in the Australian conservative mould of atavistic denial, which has seen conservatives oppose every landmark reform in the country’s history, from compulsory arbitration to universal health care to mandatory superannuation.

    Keating always observed accurately that good policy is good politics.

    As the issues spawned by minority government recede and others occupy centre stage, that call to policy rigour offers the Gillard government a clear and honourable direction for the future. And it begins with a renewal of self-respect.

    Stephen Loosley is a former ALP national president and senator.]

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