Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement Newspoll is one of the happier poll results for the government of the past fortnight: the Coalition’s two-party lead has eased to 56-44 from 58-42 a fortnight ago and support for the carbon tax is up six points to 36 per cent, with opposition down six to 53 per cent. On the primary vote, Labor is up two points to 29 per cent, the Coalition is down two to 47 per cent and the Greens are up one to 13 per cent. Julia Gillard has gained two points on approval to 32 per cent, but her disapproval remains stuck on 59 per cent. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 39 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and has only just maintained his lead as preferred prime minister, dropping two points to 41 per cent with Gillard up two to 40 per cent.

We also had from the Herald-Sun yesterday a poll of 625 voters in Julia Gillard’s electorate of Lalor, conducted by JWS Research using its usual methodology of automated phone calls. The company has had a rather patchy record with its previous political polling, and the latest survey has been criticised for asking respondents attitudinal questions before proceeding to voting intention. It points to a 14 per cent swing against Gillard – solidly higher than the trend of recent national polling – although she still leads 58-42 on two-party preferred. Gillard has a four-point net positive approval rating among her own constituents, but the carbon tax is opposed by 43 per cent compared with 33 per cent in support. Fifty-seven per cent rate her “honest and trustworthy” (either quite or very), with 34 per cent opting for the negative.

UPDATE: Bernard Keane in Crikey reports the latest Essential Research result has the Coalition lead at 55-45, down from 56-44 last week and 57-43 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 32 per cent, and the Coalition’s down one to 48 per cent. However, Tony Abbott’s policy of scrapping the carbon tax has the support of 50 per cent of respondents, with only 36 per cent opposed. There are also questions on trust in the media, which is found to have “slumped dramatically in recent months”. Trust in daily newspapers rates in the low 50s, television and radio news and current affairs in the high 40s and talk radio in the low 30s. With respect to specific outlets, the ABC and broadsheets are more trusted than the commercial media and tabloids. Fifty-eight per cent say the government should not allow one company to own the majority of Australia’s major newspapers – as News Limited does – which is up from 50 per cent since the question was last asked in November.

UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,392 thoughts on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. An old Qld copper explained policing to me this way. “We used to be a Police Force, now we are a Police Service”.

  3. poroti…tks for the link to David Langes Oxford debate, got very moist eyes seeing him in top gear again. Remember watching that on the night, such pride. Not many orators in the ranks these days to equal him. Had a look also at the clip of Muldoon announcing the ’84 snap election, outside his office, he was as drunk as a …that finally did him in.

  5. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans
    Obama spent $1T in his Stimulus Programs, Dubya spent $1.5T on tax cut for the rich. Only in USA #USAIsFuckued
    17 seconds ago

  7. Then we’ll have this strange period where the MSM and rabid Liberals supporters of Abbott forget he ever existed as Tony is brushed out of the collective memory.

    If the ETS passes and Turnbull becomes leader, then I think Turnbull would be an unbackable favourite to become PM.

    The thing that is keeping Labor in the game is the Liberals being lead by a guy who is opposed to the ETS, and who is trying to base his entire election strategy on repealing something that will be old news by election day. If the ETS is passed and they are lead by a leader who basically supports the policy, then the election will have to be about other things.

  8. conceravota Concera Vota
    by darrenlaver
    @
    @Thefinnigans US painted themselves into a corner. Voted in RW loonies. Lack of foresight. Just like Lib party. Abbott & Minchin wreck too.
    10 minutes ago

  9. Finns

    Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co Conglomate Tea Party Division did well to get us set in some nice short positions on the future of the US. That, plus the Gold Division’s holdings of the real thing, would mean that we are laughing all the way to our Banking Division’s HQ in the Caymans.

    Let’s cross fingers that our friends succeed in warding off a change in the debt ceiling.

  10. Tom H

    My money is that Turnbull will be done over by the Murdoch media if he sides with Labor. His only chance of regaining the leadership is if Abbott loses the 2013 election.

    Tom with a little bit of good organisation and luck, MordorMedia will be out of existance by the next election.

    James Murdoch on Thursday was reported to have won the unanimous support of British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC directors to remain as chairman, but Wolff forecast a more sour outcome for the Murdoch heir in respect to News Corporation.

    “I think this is an end game for the Murdoch family’s relationship with News Corporation,” Wolff said of the hacking scandal.

    “I think that within the relatively short term – 60 days, 90 days – we’ll see it played out.

    “I think Rupert, everybody has pretended he is the man who will live forever within the company, his board, everybody has seen this is not true, he’s an 80-year-old man.

    “He is somebody who has to be pushed into, helped into retirement.

    “I think we will see the separation of the Murdochs from this company, I think we will see the separation of the newspapers – the toxic element – from this company, and that’s the minimal, the least disruptive thing that will be necessary for this company to go on.”

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/murdoch-news-empire-will-fall-biographer-20110729-1i34k.html

  11. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
    @
    @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, is it the Coalition Policy to dump the PM in a bag into the sea? #auspol
    5 minutes ago

  13. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
    USA Public debts is about $14T the world holds $5T in the Treasury Bills. How long can the world keeps the Yanks in Disneyland? #USAIsfucked
    1 minute ago

  16. Marx Bros skit anyone, these quotes from MT are brilliant …. ROFL

    Asked on Sky News on Thursday if the government’s idea of putting a price on carbon was better than the coalition’s direct action, Mr Turnbull replied: ‘It is the coalition’s policy’.

    The question repeated, he said: ‘Well, of course, it is – all of the coalition’s policies are better than the government’s policies’.

    Asked why it was better, he replied: ‘Because that is our policy and that is the considered opinion of the coalition’.

    Is this a lost Yes Minister script?

  17. Boerwar

    The Finn,Boerwar Fukushima Zaibatsu should hire Comical Ali to open a Mission Accomplished Division. From the following article opportunities in the area could abound.

    Qassem Suleimani: the Iranian general ‘secretly running’ Iraq
    Martin Chulov reports on the elusive Iranian with so much Iraqi influence that Baghdadis believe he is controlling the country.
    In Baghdad, no other name invokes the same sort of reaction among the nation’s power base – discomfort, uncertainty and fear.
    “He is the most powerful man in Iraq without question,” Iraq’s former national security minister, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, said recently. “Nothing gets done without him.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/28/qassem-suleimani-iran-iraq-influence

  18. victoria – thanks

    GG – How right you are. Facts are no longer on Richardson’s agenda. A few other things have happened this week – Malaysia, Tony Blair here, etc so I guess the PM has had to spend time away from the CT issue.

    I saw a quick clip on ABC Breakfast of Abbott on Ch9 today. I’m with other Bludgers who think he looks most uncomfortable lately. I reckon he is getting some comments out in voter land that don’t excite him. Was it Laura Tingle who said he is being asked awkward questions, dopn regional radio, about his DA plan? He doesn’t look a happy chappy.

    BTW – did anyone else notice how brash at times and brittle at others that Trioli seemed this morning on Breakfast. I wondered if somebody had a bottle hidden under the sofa she was sitting on. It was a pretty strange performance from 6am to 8.00am

  20. What is John McCain’s position?

    Vic, i have emailed his a copy of Kama Sutra – bizarro he said of his fellow Repugs, especially the Tea Party

  21. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans???????
    Accord to Foxnews: USA has run out of money now and will run out of credit by August 2nd. Disneyland anymore? #USAISfucked
    1 minute ago

  22. Shows On,

    Having someone as leader of the Libs who would be talking about the issues that matter to voters when they are about to vote would certainly be a help to the Libs.

    Whether Turnbull could beat Gillard in two years from now after she has implemented her programme is debateable. We Australians tend to not like churning our PMs

    As always, it will come down to the economy, economic management, interest rates jobs and an X factor. It always does.

  24. OPT @ 5245

    This Summer, especially during the Bris floods & Yasi, Anna Bligh drew the line at risking emergency workers’ lives trying to rescue those who ignored warnings and disobeyed instructions. People were given clear warnings that they must be in shelters at certain times, after which rescues would be tried. There were later phone calls from people who stayed but were now in danger; but she remained adamant: emergency workers’ lives were not risked. Nor should they.

    Exactly!

    So there is a role for leadership and Anna Bligh showed it. Oh… and she is a woman.

    Premier Bligh saw the need and stepped forward and I would bet she did not have a formal role in the emergency management structure. She made some hard decisions and took responsibility for them.

    She provides a start contrast between someone who did have such formal responsibilities and did the exact opposite.

    Gender has nothing to do with it.

  26. Is this a lost Yes Minister script?

    Autocrat – yes, in spades. Turnbull is doing himself a big disservice. He would be better to do what Bruce Baird and other Libs have done before. If he wants to become PM he will win more votes from the swingers if he stands by his principles.

  28. Very sad. Does the 6 yo. have other family to take care of him?

    SK – devoted grandparents, her father and a very devoted aunt who is slightly older than her mother. She is very lucky that she will be protected and loved so much.

    Makes your heart bleed for the kids tho, doesn’t it.

  30. Autocrat – yes, in spades. Turnbull is doing himself a big disservice. He would be better to do what Bruce Baird and other Libs have done before. If he wants to become PM he will win more votes from the swingers if he stands by his principles.

    Yes, probably…but in reality he would be turfed. I think it is better (for his interests) to bide his time, obfuscate; and then strike when the time is right.

  32. Just got my Lib email complaining about millions of news taxes. Ends with…

    Say NO to new taxes… donate to help the Liberal Party fight Labor and the Green s new taxes.

    Don’t pay taxes. Give us money instead.

  33. Re: Malcolm Turnbull and a CP vote – I still say he will cross the floor when it comes to the vote (if a division is called of course). His ‘principled’ support of an ETS is his most visible point of differentiation from Tony Abbott. If he’s going to make a play for the Liberal leadership, and I can’t see why he wouldn’t given his history and the small, but significant, window of opportunity that is about to open up, then he has to have a narrative, and the rational carbon pricing policy, rejection of Tony Abbott’s nonsensical scatter-gun approach to politics, is where he can stake his claim.

    Whether he succeeds will depend on what the sentiment is in the Liberal camp – if the polls have shifted enough to give the government a chance at reelection then obviously Tony Abbott loses his trump card, and other grievances may come to the surface – business dissatisfaction with Tony Abbott’s economic ludditism, rejection of his ad hoc policies, a restoration of more mainstream conservative thought within the party. Obviously Malcolm Turnbull needs to have been internally shoring up his numbers within the party and trying to repair the damage from his first leadership attempt…

    If he thinks he can just come out all of a sudden and say ‘pick me’ he’s dreaming… still, there’s at least a year to go before he would begin really making his play for the top job – plenty of time to get to work to make his case to his colleagues behind the scenes.

  35. poroti

    Finns, Boewar, Fukushima & Co Conglomorate would prefer it if you would stop fingering our operatives.

    Think chaff bag/sea.

  37. Bludgers, something to boost any Friday afternoon slowdown.

    The ultimate belter of a tune, Ethel Merman sings Irving Berlin’s “There’s No Business Like Show Business” http://bit.ly/nrPzXC

    BTW, she’s 68 at the time of this recording in 1976.

  41. Vera can you vote more than once for our Kev. re the twinning s tea competition,
    i only read it quickly what does it entail.

  42. UUGGHHH

    mpbowers Mike Bowers
    Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-Panel-The Australian’s Chris Kenny and political commentators Kerry-Anne Walsh and Glenn Milne #insiders

  43. vera,

    If you read some of the earlier posts it is actually 53/47 because of the quirky way Morgan distributes his headline preferences is different to the industry norm.

  44. Boerwar

    Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co Conglomorate

    Have you leased out your patented Profit Uber Alle policy to Boeing ? If not you should send them a stern letter demanding cash.

    Leaked Audit: Boeing Overcharged Army Up to 177,000 Percent on Helicopter Spare Parts
    $644.75 for a small gear smaller than a dime that sells for $12.51: more than a 5,100 percent increase in price. $1,678.61 for another tiny part, also smaller than a dime, that could have been bought within DoD for $7.71: a 21,000 percent increase. $71.01 for a straight, thin metal pin that DoD had on hand, unused by the tens of thousands, for 4 cents: an increase of over 177,000 percent.

    http://www.pogo.org/pogo-files/alerts/national-security/ns-sp-20110623-2.html

  46. mpbowers Mike Bowers
    Insiders ABC 1 & NEWS 24 9am Sunday-Panel-The Australian’s Chris Kenny and political commentators Kerry-Anne Walsh and Glenn Milne #insiders

    I certainly know what I won’t be watching on Sunday.

    What a dreadful panel.

  48. Rebel Republicans (read tea party) are stymying John Boehner’s planned debt compromise as the deadline to avoid a default approaches

    No, they aren’t blocking a compromise deal, which would’ve included $1 trillion of tax increases along with $3 trillion of spending cuts, they are currently blocking THE REPUBLICAN ONLY plan!

    The ~80 strong Tea Party faction is so INSANE, that they won’t even support the plan put forward by their own party’s leadership, that doesn’t have ANYTHING in it that Democrats want!

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