Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition

The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.

Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,874 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition”

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  2. In the 2004 election campaign, in fact on the day he announced his IR policy, Howard said he planned no major changes to IR.

    Following the election came the biggest changes to IR in a hundred years – SerfChoices.

    Did Howard lie, or did he change his mind with changed circumstances?

  3. I would like to add that I have spent my life listening to scientists and experts. In school, in university, in hospitals (research labs) and in the CSIRO. I have relied upon expert advice when it comes to money, investment, business and technology. I have taken a risk-management approach to decisions affecting my future and my family’s well being, and I have armed myself with information, not from opinion articles or celebrity journalists, but from those generating the research and data. And at a much larger level, this is how effective economies work, by listening to the experts.

    We all need to ask ourselves, who do we trust to deliver a definitive answer for the difficult questions facing our country and the globe? I have no blind faith in politicians, even those on my side of politics. But what I do know is that the best decisions made need to have the vast majority of experts agreeing. And on pricing carbon they do.

    Ask yourself, who does Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party listen to with respects to climate change and pricing carbon? Who are their experts guiding their policy decisions?

    Labor’s scheme is supported by scientists (CSIRO), supported by economist (3/4), supported by the treasury numbers and modelling, and supported by international experts.

    I’ll give Tony Abbott the last word. When he was taken to task at a public forum in Brisbane for bagging climate scientists and for bagging economists who support a price on carbon, he was asked, “why don’t you listen to these experts?” and “who do you listen to?”, to which he answered “I listen to the public.”

    Well, like others here, it’s over and out for the moment, I’m not interested to rehash and reaffirm the scientific and economic reality that is. Maybe I’ll see some of you in the late PB shift later 😉

  4. Glen:

    Although you enliven the debate with the counter-argument & in consequence of which I criticised another last night, I now take that back, as your argument is generally not worthy of reasoned response – the PM & the McMahon comparison sealing your fate in my eyes.

  10. madcyril @ 2433

    [I notice Bolt has a Stunt of the Week segment on his show.]

    Bluey is pissed off. Fancy being ripped of by Mr Bolt, of all people.

    Bluey has engaged Finns, Boerwar & Co who are looking at infringements of Bluey’s copyright and IP.

  11. cud chewer@2656

    Gillard sold her soul to the Greens for power.

    And what did you sell your soul for, Glen?

    abbott was prepared to pay over the market to wilkie, but was told to go run and jump.

    Who told Windsor…*He would do anything to become PM*.

    Who was willing to sell his body, soul, his beliefs…*anything to become PM*.

    abbott of course.

  12. Gweneth
    .
    [Rupert Murdoch was never a conservative. He has always been an anarchist.]

    An excellent point. When he first ventured into the UK his mission he stated on a number of occasions was to fight the excessive deference that the “natives” showed to their “betters”, the bloody upper class. A very noble cause I might add.
    I suppose from there it became a case of him trying to prove Lord Acton right
    [“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men.”]

  13. [george

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 8:41 pm | Permalink

    George – still no go with that final hour of overnights.

    Nope
    ]

    Pity that – hearing Barrie complaining about the mdeia dumbing down debate etc with a straight face is amazing.

  15. Charlton as much as partisan bloggers on here advocate the Left’s side of things I never say they are not worthy of reasoned responses…

    [And what did you sell your soul for, Glen?]

    Still got mine.

  17. Shellbell @ 2450

    [Does Bluey propose to order the stunts a la JJJ top 100 style?]

    Bluey will not do that, but about 4pm tomorrow Bluey will announce category winners as well as an overall winner.

  19. [drake
    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 3:02 pm | Permalink

    Who will join me in ignoring the baited comments of Two Piece Feed?]

    Count me in. I’ve replied at length to two of his anti-Gillard rants (last one at 1607) and he hasn’t responded. Seems like troll territory.

    At least Glen will usually respond even if his reply doesn’t often shed much further light.

  22. Dio @ 2456

    [I arrive home from Fiji expecting to see headlines about the carbon tax or NOTW running a parallel government in the UK, and what do I see; the headlines blare at me

    BLUDGERS PAID $10,000 TO QUIT JOBS

    What have you lot been up to? Is this Finns Boerwar Fukushima Inc’s new workplace relations strategy? Is $10K now less than the cost of a bullet?]

    Dio

    We are saddened at your world-weary cyncism. We leave that sort of thing to the Yakusa.

    Finns, Boerwar & Co conglomorate had the misjudgement to have a little skin in the Fukushima game. Turns out that because there is hardly any power left in Japan everyone has been exhorted to turn of the air.

    The result has been 26 dead and 13,000 hospitalised with heatstroke, and a lawyers’ picnic, as such things always are.

    So we reckoned that instead of everyone sweating to death on bullet trains on the way to work and then suing the arsk of us, it was cheaper just to call them Bludgers and pay them out @ $10,000 a pop.

  23. The danger of a Rabbottocracy…

    [“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity”. ~Martin L King]

  25. Bluey would have had no trouble picking a winner if Abbott’s offer (made on MTR to Bolt and his offsider) to debate the carbon price with the PM had been conditional on Bolt being the moderator or if Rudd’s kicking of the football came after trying a speculator over the shoulders of Justin Madden.

    Alas I think Bluey will be challenged to pick a winner.

  26. poroti I think he sees himself as a rebel taking on the establishment. I think he took great pleasure in wining and dining them and watching them squirm with obsequiousness. His greatest weakness – his mother. My bet is she told him what she thought about the hacking of a murdered girls phone thus the abject nature of the apologies. A tragic tale. But he deserves no sympathy. Whatever he thinks he is he has been an evil force for a long time now without any regulation. The damage he has done to democracy may be irreversible.

  30. Gittens with another good article.

    He doesn’t use the exact words but…there is a hell of a lot of low hanging fruit out there when it comes to reducing carbon. And a lot of money to be made by those with a brain.

    Though the carbon tax will raise about $9 billion a year in revenue, raising revenue is not its primary purpose.

    Rather, its purpose is to change people’s behaviour.

    And one of the most basic ideas in economics is that the best way to change people’s behaviour is to change the prices they face.

    If there’s some activity you wish to discourage, raise its price relative to all the other prices people pay.

    …It’s not necessary to leave people worse off to get them to change their spending patterns. And since the primary purpose of the carbon tax is to change relative prices rather than to raise revenue, you may as well return the revenue to people by cutting income tax and increasing benefits.

    …There are ways to reduce energy use around the house, but I suspect the main way people will respond is by buying a more energy-efficient model the next time they’re replacing an appliance.

    …when their existing power stations come to the end of their useful lives and are replaced by less-polluting generators that the big steps forward will be made.
    (The dirty brown coal generators are already at the end of their useful lives BTW)

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/give-and-take-this-new-tax-is-a-piece-of-cake-20110712-1hc2k.html#ixzz1SMHZqGgt

  31. Anybody watching SBS Dateline on Bali9. Interviewing Andrew Chan, he got 2 Mandarin Characters tattooed on his arm – “All Love” – I can only assume it was all for his poor parents back here in Australia.

  33. 2275 JV
    [Rudd was no innocent victim either. He could have made a stand. ]

    According to TP, the others made him do it!

  34. The corporate kulture of Finns, Boerwar Fukushima Inc would make Murdoch’s News Ltd look like picnic at Disneyland.

  35. The Finnigans@2681

    Anybody watching SBS Dateline on Bali9. Interviewing Andrew Chan, he got 2 Mandarin Characters tattooed on his arm – “All Love” – I can only assume it was all for his poor parents back here in Australia.

    Yes. They are the innocent victims in this saga of greed and wasted lives.

  36. Remember all those sceptics who said the “Alcopops Tax” wouldn’t work.

    “The success of the alcopops tax in cutting teen drinking could be used as a model to introduce a minimum price on all alcoholic beverages, drug and alcohol experts suggest.

    A study of the effects of the three-year-old alcopops tax by an alliance of representatives from the Alcohol Advisory Group, National Drug Research Council and academics has found teenagers are drinking less as a result”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/call-to-increase-alcohol-prices-20110717-1hjpx.html

    Mostly, the same yobs who are saying that carbon Pricing won’t do anything either.

    Wrong.

  37. Finns

    [The corporate kulture of Finns, Boerwar Fukushima Inc would make Murdoch’s News Ltd look like picnic at Disneyland.]

    Actually picnics at Camp Rodent are pretty brutal at the best of times.

  38. there appears to be a meme emerging (amplified by some on this blog) that the persian rug traders are lining up to flog unsuspecting aussies dodgy emission certificates – equatorial guinea and kazakhastan being the two most mentioned – as this is where KRudd has recently been (clever thinking by the LNP think tank, no?)

    unfortunately, as JG would say, the facts get in the way of this blatant attempt to mislead. As can be seen below, there are quite a few requirements in the way of anyone thinking of rorting this part of the system. in fact, the much derided global consensus on Climate change is underpinning the scheme. (quote from p107 of http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Consolidated-Final.pdf)

    [The following international units will be included in the legislation establishing the carbon pricing mechanism:
    • certified emission reductions (CERs) from Clean Development Mechanism projects under the Kyoto Protocol, other than temporary CERs, long-term CERs, and CERs from nuclear projects, the destruction of trifluoromethane, the destruction of nitrous oxide from adipic acid plants or from large-scale hydro-electric projects not consistent with criteria adopted by the EU (based on the World Commission on Dams guidelines);
    • emission reduction units (ERUs) from Joint Implementation projects under the Kyoto
    Protocol, other than ERUs from nuclear projects, the destruction of trifluoromethane, the
    destruction of nitrous oxide from adipic acid plants or from large-scale hydro-electric
    projects not consistent with criteria adopted by the European Union (EU) (based on the
    World Commission on Dams guidelines);
    • removal units (RMUs) issued by a Kyoto Protocol country on the basis of land use,
    land-use change and forestry activities under Article 3.3 or 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol; and
    • any other international units that the Government may allow by regulation.

    Any restrictions placed on the acceptance of international units will be to ensure the stability and ongoing credibility of the carbon pricing mechanism, the environmental integrity and effectiveness of the carbon pricing mechanism, and consistency with Australia’s international objectives and obligations.
    The Government may disallow the use of a given type of international unit at any time to ensure the environmental integrity of the mechanism.
    Liable parties holding such units in their registry accounts will be able to use those units for compliance in the compliance year in which the units were disallowed, but not subsequently.
    Adding to the list of
    eligible international
    units
    The Government may allow other international units by regulation where:
    • the addition does not compromise the environmental integrity of the carbon pricing
    mechanism;
    • the addition is consistent with the objective of the carbon pricing mechanism and with
    Australia’s international objectives; and
    • there has been consultation with stakeholders, and analysis of the expected impact on the
    permit price, by the Climate Change Authority, and advance notification to the market by
    the Government.
    The types of units accepted and qualitative restrictions on use imposed by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the New Zealand (NZ) Emissions Trading Scheme will be taken into account when determining what international units may be accepted for compliance under the carbon pricing mechanism.
    The Climate Change Authority will advise on the integrity of international units, and recommend which units should be accepted and which should be prohibited.
    ]

  39. Gaffhook

    [Is bluey out for dinner?]

    Bluey reckons that this the best video he has seen for years. He was laughing so much his tentacles nearly fell off. He was tickled pink. He reckons that that will teach folk not to take invertebrates lightly.

  40. [According to TP, the others made him do it!]

    Gorgoeus, as a PM, Rudd was so weak, he was treated disdainfully by the rest of the Gang of 4, namely Tanner, Swan and Gillard.

  42. HSO @ 2561

    [BTW, bludgers, there was an eminent scientist on today at 12.00 RN, “In the national interest”. Bloody terrifying. He’s saying we can’t avoid 3-4 degrees and are probably looking at 5-6 degrees. Think about that. So much for Howard saying wtte well, people will just have to get used to it being a bit hotter.]

    But wait, HSO, there’s more. Those figures are planetary averages over decades. They do not take into account 1 in 100 year temperature events. Try adding four degrees to those figues and try to work out what a week of that would do do our agriculture.

    Not to worry too much, though. The Do-nothings are assuring us we can ‘adapt’.

  43. Gorgoeus, as a PM, Rudd was so weak, he was treated disdainfully by the rest of the Gang of 4, namely Tanner, Swan and Gillard.

    The pressure is on Gillard it is obvious as the is a correlation in the slagging of Rudd by Finns and the polls. Maybe once he graduates from AKB48 he might engage in some intellectual honesty.

  44. Anyone who doesn’t know that many scientists today are grant driven is extremely naive. And there have been many many grants going for global warming effects on anything and everything. Anyone who thinks that the CSIRO are independent is also extremely naive. Remember how the Rudd government annouced as soon as it was elected that all CSIRO press releases had to be approved by the politicians to fit the government’s ethos.

    And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere and that’s been pubicly agreed to by the government’s own highly paid experts. Accusing people who understand all this of being driven by fear and ignorance is the folly that the ALP/Greens have fallen into. If the voters don’t agree with you, throw out a few labels and hope that they stick. All they need is a little educating, and with their own money too. That’s going to go down a treat!

  46. We need to hijack Abbott’s “impromptu” visits and take him on. After all it only takes one loudmouth to front Julia and steal the 24 hour news cycle.

  47. Hey Pain Engine, i am into Intellectual Properties, not Intellectual Honesty. I leave that to you the expert.

    Lu Kewen and I got on well and we converse in Mandarin and discuss the history of China.

  49. [BK

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    We need to hijack Abbott’s “impromptu” visits and take him on. After all it only takes one loudmouth to front Julia and steal the 24 hour news cycle.
    ]

    Normally the media are only told of such stunts at the last moment so as not to attract protesters – though in the PM’s case I wonder if tghe Lib plant was briefed by a friendly media shill ?

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