Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,636 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  2. Messers Scott, Tudge and Laming get a yellow.

    Those on the left are looking more and more like a sea of daffodils with the Speaker wandering lonely as a cloud.

  3. The late Douglas Adams seems to have looked into our political future.This from Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency.
    “That was it. Done. The faulty Monk was turned out into the desert where it
    could believe what it liked, including the idea that it had been hard done
    by. “

  9. i can only assume the bad polls are for, this reason,

    nothing seems to get ticked and finished, in the minds of the people,

    dont count the levy of course and the NBN, and then of course the voting public dont know about any of the other policies, but what about also the stay at home mums now that was ticked, very early, but its the As and the Pollution tax, must be done very quickly.

    i have given up watching q t now, no point really.

    next time i look in will be when the polls are better, but tp said he thought they had hit bottom ( i dont usually read him} but well they are about the same as Newspoll last week and not as bad as neilson, so give and take a few points must be about the same 10 points behind,. i would think,.

    dont mind 6 behind but bit fed up with the other,

    love to know what is in peoples brains but i do believe its the fact that the polices
    are not ticked off, people dont think things through, they think when you say things it happens the next day.
    well if they reasoned it out its a bit like applying for a building permit , takes months sometimes.

    se ya when the polls improve may be

  12. Does anyone else get the feeling that the MPCC has worked out a deal on diesel fuel?

    I think the Govt looks to comfortable with the Opposition questions.

  21. Given the role Windsor has played in the petrol negotiations I’d very much doubt if diesel was left off the table.

  27. On the office printer: Tone is saying no to “his office printer because someone said it had a great big new fax in it”

  29. This little black duck
    .
    OMG ! Douglas Adam’s Electric Monk is Tony Abbott or is Tony Abbott the Electric Monk.
    .
    “the new improved Monk Plus models were twice as powerful, had an entirely new multi-tasking Negative Capability feature that allowed them to hold up to sixteen entirely different and contradictory ideas in memory simultaneously without generating any irritating system errors, were twice as fast and at least three times as glib, ”
    .
    “Unfortunately this Electric Monk had developed a fault, and had started to believe all kinds of things, more or less at random”

  32. [Turnbull has aged!]

    and is losing his hair fast. A report last week said he’s given up eating apart from salads. Does that create hair loss?

  34. [Abbott must be saving his rant for 7.30 tonight with Uhlmann!]

    Victoria 😉 – he wouldn’t want it to look like a repeat

  35. Turnbull just said in parliament that the Coalition doesn’t oppose mandating fibre to the home internet connections in new housing estates,yet he asserts that the Coalition now supports fibre to the node (not the home) as the standard for internet access.

    So the coalition STILL supports the best type of internet connection for some, and worse technologies for others.

    They still don’t get it!

  37. This little black duck 2533
    .
    Uncanny is an understatement to say the least. Little things like last week Tones posing on a horse and having the electric monk sitting on a horse make it even more so. So it seems Tones is actually not the “mad monk” but the “electric monk”.

  39. [So it seems Tones is actually not the “mad monk” but the “electric monk”.]

    Nah, Abbott’s too much of a troglodyte to be an electric monk.

    More like a gaslight monk. 🙂

  41. [Its an important *test* for both of them.]
    I’m not so sure it’s important really. Given that only 130,000 odd people will watch it, and even less read about it in the OO the next day, the importance seems diminished in a sort of “not worth watching it anymore” way.

  42. victoria,

    [Abbott must be saving his rant for 7.30 tonight with Uhlmann! ]

    If the ABC wanted to give their 7.30 ratings a boost, they should get Red Kerry back for a surprise appearance tonight doing the Abbott interview.

    Blimey, I’d give a months pay to see the look on Abbott’s face when he walked into the room & saw K O’B waiting with the gattling gun fully loaded & ready to go! 😉

  43. [So the coalition STILL supports the best type of internet connection for some, and worse technologies for others.]

    ShowsOn – they are banking on the voters who don’t know much about it to believe that the Libs can do it better and cheaper.

    Turnbull and Abbott are banking on the ‘Labor stands for waste and mismanagement’ mantra they have been running so successfully for the past few years and it will work unless the voters under 55 move their vote away from the Libs.

  45. Turnbull’s first proposed amendment seems to make sense. It would allow various cabling companies to wire up new housing estates with fibre, before that installation is sold to NBN Co. That seems to make sense to me.

    The second amendment is completely stupid. It says that different companies should be able to retain ownership of the fibre network at housing estates that they then rent to NBN co, or even compete against NBN Co.

    This is ridiculous because the fibre network is a natural monopoly.

  46. Re QT.
    I actually wish that the govt speakers had dealt with the “petrol” questions more briefly. The so-called strategy of moving through every type of commercial vehicle with a “will this be affected by carbon tax?” was very childish and one answer could have been repeated over and over, in a dismissive way.
    Will Mr Bloggs of Old Street in outer Woop Woop have to pay more to fill his manure loader, is getting down to stupid detail.
    We all know the full detail isn’t out. Just say so.

  47. I’m not so sure it’s important really. Given that only 130,000 odd people will watch it, and even less read about it in the OO the next day, the importance seems diminished in a sort of “not worth watching it anymore” way.

    730’s ratings have fallen significantly. It is ABC‘s flagship current affairs show and much of the decline has been put down to the poor performance of Uhlmann and a lesser extent Lee Sales.

    Abbott has been dodging this form of media scrutiny for almost 12 months and has ordered his team not to do certain media, he has told the nations economists they are incompetent and his scare tactics narrative on the carbon tax is coming unstuck and he is being shown to have lied.

    But believe whatever you want.

  48. Gawd, Turnbull is waffling. Stutchbury said yesterday that Turnbull was excellent at the OO forum on Friday so expect glowing column inches from Stutchbury about him.

  49. [ShowsOn – they are banking on the voters who don’t know much about it to believe that the Libs can do it better and cheaper. ]
    At least Turnbull has stopped saying that wireless is the panacea that will save us all.

    Obviously after a few thousand people sent messages to his Twitter account saying that he is arguing against the laws of physics has reconsidered his rhetoric.

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