Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.

Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).

What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.

If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.

UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,934 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 79
1 3 4 5 79
  1. Geez
    Lateline just said coming up, the announced historic Tassie forest agreement that wasn’t.

    Can’t believe it would happen……….. again.

  2. [Greentard, stop being such a retard by refusing to accept Howard won the 1998 election.]
    Never said he lost it. My point was that 216,000 more people voted against the GST than for it.

    Having said all that, I think over all the GST has been good, just as Liberal supporters who want action on climate change must admit that pricing carbon is the best way to deal with the problem.

    It is astonishing that Liberal supporters criticise tax and spend policies, but then turn around and defend their party when it proposes doing exactly that on carbon abatement.

  3. [It is astonishing that Liberal supporters criticise tax and spend policies, but then turn around and defend their party when it proposes doing exactly that on carbon abatement.]

    not really

    the fibs have always spoken with forked tongue

    i am more and more convinced that the fib brand is all about being
    cunning liars.

    nothing more, nothing less

  4. The industrial relations dispute in NSW is not a Work Choices.
    1) it only impacts public servants.
    2) it limits pay increases to 2.5% unless there is proven productivity.
    3)Follows years of above level pay increases based on proposed productivity gains that didn’t arrive.

    Teachers and nurses will be upset but it just doesn’t resonate with the public.

    “what do we want ..MORE THAN 2.5%… when do we want it …BEFORE WE PRODUCE MORE PRODUCTIVITY”

  5. [Gusface 145:

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
    most women would understand my point.

    keep digging]

    Have it your way.

  6. Charlton

    the best way to break down the male/female thingy

    is to not ascribe behaviour to one gender or another

    I feel you have gone down that path with your assumptive allegation that, originally all the proto’s were mael, later amended to mainly male

    I suggest you examine Your reasons as to why you assumed such behaviour

  7. I said a while back that the government needed to set short term milestones. They already cleared the budget milestone in May.

    This week was the last week of sittings before July 1st so they’ve now cleared that milestone. They’ve also cleared the bonus which was the structural separation of Telstra which is excellent news for the ALP.

    They’ve now got to these milestones to achieve

    1. Malaysian Deal

    2. Carbon Tax (finalised and legislated)

    3. Tax summit

    4. Mining tax

    5. Be still standing at the end of the year

    Every time one of these milestones gets ticked off, the political terrain becomes more difficult for the Coalition.

  8. [interesting obs

    why 60%]
    Well, they got 64 at the election, and they will have a long honeymoon before it comes down much.

    I guess the IR issue pissed some public servants off, that\’s what, 15% of the workforce? And the solar feed in tariff cut would\’ve pissed some people off.

    So there you take off a bit to put them on 60.

  9. [Gusface
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink
    Charlton

    the best way to break down the male/female thingy

    is to not ascribe behaviour to one gender or another

    I feel you have gone down that path with your assumptive allegation that, originally all the proto’s were mael, later amended to mainly male

    I suggest you examine Your reasons as to why you assumed such behaviour]

    Thanks for the gratuitous advice Gus & do keep digging (smiley thing).

  10. Gusface
    Labor learned there were no votes lost in bashing silvertails eg if you saw the ABC program “The R*pe of Ku Ring gai”
    The coalition knows there are no votes lost in limiting public service pay rise to 2.5%.

    In both cases, it doesn’t resonate.

  11. [The coalition knows there are no votes lost in limiting public service pay rise to 2.5%.]

    so all those PS who voted for fatty will just bend over?

    fatty has caught howard disease

  12. [evan14
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    I will suggest to Julia that she promotes Jason Clare, Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh and one or two other younger ones with potential!
    The weak links for me are Joe Ludwig, Peter Garrett, Robert McClelland especially.]

    Not Garrett. He’s actually been quite impressive since he hasn’t had to carry the can for all the bullshit about the Home Insulation Programs setting everyone’s house on fire.

    Your mate Rudd didn’t do him any favours there, and Gillard was smart finding another niche for him. Has been fine on Education. I’d agree with BW’s rating of him as 7 out of 10.

  13. [Whatever could be said of the GST, Howard put his case to the people and won the 1998 election ]

    And as has been pointed out on more occasions than I care to remember, he lost MORE seats than Gillard last year — and actually had less than 50% of the 2PP but fell over the line anyway. Gillard scored more votes.

    So I wouldn’t keep bringing it up.

  14. so all those PS who voted for fatty will just bend over?

    fatty has caught howard disease

    I would expect there would be some public sector nurses and teachers who voted for the coalition to change but
    -it is a relatively small group as most probably voted Labor already.
    -it is not the sort of thing that people talk about round the barbie.

  15. victoria:

    His call straight after the Labor leadership non ballot has turned out to be spot on:

    (wtte) it’s destabilising to change leaders so close to an election, and the opps will argue ‘well you’ve changed the leader but have you changed the policy’, and the transplanting of the state approach (NSW obviously) to federal politics being toxic to voters, a focus on focus groups and polling rather than leadership. Rudd was carrying all these negatives, and now Gillard has to shore them up.

    This is essentially what we’ve seen play out. The PM was handed one hell of a poisoned challice by Rudd, made all the more difficult by his self-interested refusal to contest a leadership ballot as he promised that night.

    I really don’t see how people can defend him. As someone argued previously, he is a Labor rat pure and simple.

  16. Gusface @ 176:

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
    charlton

    always ready to help

    You’re only say that………………………………………………………………….because it’s true.

    Wimbledon beckons: the very plain Maria Sharapova is playing the equally plain Laura Robson. Now there’s a sexist comment.

  17. 130 greentard
    [ STEVE CANNANE: Greg Hunt has altered the transcript of the original Lateline interview and posted it on his website to reflect what he says was his intended definition of 100 square kilometres.

    Based on this altered figure, Greg Hunt believes 150 million tonnes of carbon dioxide can be abated in one year over one million hectares.

    But using the CSIRO\’s best estimate, you\’d need a land mass of at least 75 million hectares to do this. And if you take the CSIRO\’s figures at the lower end of the scale, then you\’d need 500 million hectares, or 65 per cent of the land mass of Australia.Based on this altered figure, Greg Hunt believes 150 million tonnes of carbon dioxide can be abated in one year over one million hectares.]

    Maybe he could go to Howard for that old (Cole Porter) Bing Crosby number, “Don’t Fence me in.”
    [Oh, give me land lots of land, ‘neath the starry skies above.
    Don’t Fence Me In.]

  18. Channel 10 Phone Poll!
    80% of respondents want Rudd to return to the top job.

    Yes, I know, it’s immaterial and it won’t happen and the factional bosses ignore such stuff.

    Depends on how it was conducted to know if it is on any worth.

    However all these polls that show continued strong support for Keven Rudd since being knifed must really rankle that little cabal that thought they were so clever in their scheming. That knife keeps coming back and twisting in their guts which makes them react against Rudd, causing even more trouble.

    Rudd biggest crime among a number of Laborites and especially that treasonous crowd is that he is popular with the people of Australia, more so than either of the leaders.

    They remind me of Downer who despised Rudd so much he could taste it and he despised so much because he was so popular and more successful.

    People still don’t get it. Leading a country requires more than policy and process. People take the sausage making process of policy for granted and don’t give a rats if the ‘staff’ hate how the boss goes about it.

    So those gentle Labor MPs, ex union officials and so forth who couldn’t cope or confront face to face with nasty Rudd don’t mean a hill of beans to the people. They don’t care if the boss is a bastard. They only care that he leads the country and serves who he is supposed to serve, the people. So that’s maybe where Rudd come undone, he was all about serving the country when he was meant to be serving the factional heavies. It wasn’t about nasty Rudd, it was about Rudd not serving the right masters. And an ETS was definitely not on their agenda, nor a mining tax.

    It is a wonder that nobody has sat down and thought about how in the heck is Rudd still so popular, and really been popular for a very long time, since taking over from Beasely.

    How come he is still so popular even after years of media smearing, Labor back stabbing and denigration, being deposed, all the negativeness on Rudd for years now still has not stuck permanently. In the minds of the majority he still stands out above the others.

    It bears serious examination.

    I think it goes to Rudd thoroughly exposing himself to the country, his efforts to talk above the media direct to the people. Rudd etching himself in the public’s mind so many think that they pretty much know this guy, character wise. So when the personal attacks and stories come it creates cognitive dissonance. There is no reinforcement, the negative messages have no hook on the ‘known’ character of the individual.

    The dissmisal of Rudd I think just enhanced his position, by adding a degree of sympathy and maybe also an increasing belief in his superiority overall.

    The opposite happens with Gillard in some degree where the criticisms can fit with the personality she displays.

    The back stabbing of Rudd along with his long term popularity is morphing into another myth now in the making for Rudd. And eventually people will want Rudd to become PM as party of a ‘fairytale’ come back they will end up wishing to see.

    This is another reason why Labor needs to get rid of Gillard. She is slow acting poison for Labor’s chances and it is only the presence of Abbott that has softened her descent into political oblivion.

  19. [It wasn’t about nasty Rudd, it was about Rudd not serving the right masters. And an ETS was definitely not on their agenda, nor a mining tax.]
    The PM is the chair of cabinet. If Rudd wanted to push on with the ETS and the original mining tax he could\’ve done so, it was his decision to dump the ETS and abandon the original mining tax, which made him look weak and unprincipled.

    I still don\’t understand why he didn\’t call a D.D. election for late Feb or early March 2010.

  20. Bilbo,

    I don’t think I can in good conscience spare ShowsOn the rod I’ve applied to Frank.

    Can we watch? 👿

    And while you are at it, GP deserves the rattan for using the term ‘retarded’ to someone here.

    On PB, that’s not cricket, GP.

  21. My feeling: the campaign to sell the carbon tax is really Gillard’s last stand. If it’s a success, she’ll be secure until 2013.
    On the other hand, if Labor’s primary vote is still wallowing around the low 30s at best, by the end of this year, then the leadership rumblings will recommence……that doesn’t mean Rudd is any certainty to come back to the top job, instead you might find Combet or Shorten or even Smith being talked up as a compromise candidate. But ironically, Rudd and his 10 or so supporters in caucus could be the swing votes under such a scenario.

  22. [Rudd etching himself in the public’s mind so many think that they pretty much know this guy, character wise. So when the personal attacks and stories come it creates cognitive dissonance. There is no reinforcement, the negative messages have no hook on the ‘known’ character of the individual. ]

    Yes. All those reports about Rudd deeply alienating his own party were just because they couldn’t handle his sheer amazingness.

  23. [Greentard is quite happy with the moniker.]
    Just like you are quite happy defending the Liberal\’s socialist tax and spend climate change policies.

  24. TP,
    Isn’t that what you wrote just the other day, or am I suffering from deja vue? (I can’t find any of those accent thingys on my keyboard for ‘deja’.)

  25. PTMD

    TP and evan do loop tne loop everyday. I am sure if you read it the first time, it has been repeated a thousand times after that. how boringment!!

  26. [Imagine the absolute irony of Bill Shorten trying to do a deal with the Rudd faction to get the leadership –]
    Rudd is kind of part of the AWU-Old Guard faction. Bill Shorten was AWU National secretary for 6 years.

    Do you really think he will struggle to get their backing if/when he is a leadership contender?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 79
1 3 4 5 79