Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.

Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).

What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.

If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.

UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,934 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Julia Gillard’s PPM will be 7 vs Tony’s 93 by December 31.]

    I hope so – all the funnier when she beats him at the next election

  2. Gusface @ 20:

    [Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:31 pm | Permalink
    btw

    Charlton

    your basis for assuming that all the proto’s were male?]

    Sorry, I should have said the main – emphasis main – protagonists were male, with the rider that there might be females using male pseudonyms, but I doubt regular posters would be able to maintain that guise for too long.

    I’ll further concede that there were a few females posting last night but that for me is not the point.

  3. Just so you know, you vituperators:
    [Vituperation comes from Latin vituperatio, from the past participle of vituperare, “to blame,” from vitium, “a fault” + parare, “to prepare.” The verb form is vituperate; the related adjective is vituperative. One who vituperates is a vituperator.]

  4. [On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.]

    Support for the coalition decreasing slightly? That’s some good news, I guess.

  5. [I expect her to go south even further once the public are aware that Bob Brown is really running the show.]

    Sideshow Bob?

    leave the helium to the adults

  6. [protagonists were male, with the rider that there might be females using male pseudonyms, but I doubt regular posters would be able to maintain that guise for too long.]

    WOW

    what a sexist and stereotypical argument

    🙁

  7. [I’ll further concede that there were a few females posting last night but that for me is not the point.]
    Who were they? 1) Victoria 2) Harry “Snapper” Organs 3) Frank Calabrese

    Was there a fourth one?

  8. Aaaaaaaargh!

    Just got off the phone from the Bogans in Wauchope.

    Let me just say that I tried to be reasonable, but when she told me (confidentially) that “Ju-LIAR” Gilllard is a Communist and that Bob Brown has taken over Australia by ignoring the will of the people, that was it. Apparently the hung parliament is an unconstitutional coup d’etat that Bob Brown, Labor and the Communist High Court have cobbled up among themselves. And Quentin Bryce, of course. She’s in it as thick as thieves as well.

    I let fly.

    Did my block.

    Lost my temper.

    Chucked my narna.

    Spat the dummy.

    Then I hung up in her ear.

    From now on Her Indoors does my talking for me when it comes to making arrangement with The Wauchope Bogans for looking after the grandkids.

    So sick and tired of hearing regurgitated talking points from 2GB every bloody day of my life from every corner. Gillard has wrecked the country. The BER was a giant rort and a total failure. “I didn’t get $900” (because she’s dodging tax, rorting Centrelink, and didn’t put a return in that year).

    She hates Gillard. She hates Rudd. She hates Abbott. She hates Brown. They’re all crooks.

    The only one she likes is… wait for it… Barnarby Joyce. HE should “take over as Prime Minister”. He should “get the Army” to help him.

    See what I mean about the destruction of faith not only in our government, but in governance itself? To put it mildly, Abbott has a lot to answer for.

    How in the hell do you explain reality to these people? Where do you begin to chip away at the bullshit and the misinformation?

    I mentioned the Auditor General’s glowing report into the BER. “Oh he’s just that bitch’s [Gillard’s] pet accountant. He’d say anything to prop her up.” I pointed out he was appointed by Howard. Well, that’s not what she heard. She heard that he was married to Gillard’s cousin, or knew him, or once met him, or maybe walked down the same street as he did.

    Where do they get this shit?

    I know I shouldn’t have shouted, but I’ve had enough of it. Millionaire shock jocks causing people to ring me up at 9.30 at night, unsolicited, in tears, complaining about how the country is ruined and we’re all going to hell. OK she was half-pissed, but why do I have to take that into account?

  9. [Julia Gillard’s PPM will be 7 vs Tony’s 93 by December 31.]
    Love the hubris GP. If Labor recovers it will make an election win for Labor that much sweeter.

  10. AB

    Surely that is within the MOE from the last Morgan though.

    Whenever the Coalition are ahead on Morgan one cannot think Labor are going great guns. Morgan with its face-to-face polls are more happy hunting grounds of Labor than the Right IMHO.

    I wonder what the Nat vote was 🙂 ???

  11. Bolt alert

    “On The Bolt Report on Sunday – I talk to Lord Monckton about accusing global warmist Ross Garnaut of “fascist” thinking.

    On Channel10 at 10am and 4.30pm.”

    What colour feather do you think AB will deploy to punish LM before the love-in?

  12. [OK these are guesses, but Hunt, Hockey, Moylan, Broadbent, O’Dwyer, Turnbull, ]

    Hunt, Hockey and Turnbull couldn’t cross the floor without losing their shadow Cabinet spots, but in any case, I take your point that Moylan Broadbent would definately tip the numbers to the govt, which in the end wouldn’t need O.

    I hope it happens!

  13. Oh well Glen, Gillard’s got 2 years to turn it all around – that’s the hope of Labor supporters.
    If the carbon tax becomes reality, the boats stop coming, the mining tax is settled…..then Abbott will run out of things to be negative about, and be exposed for the policy free zone that he allegedly is – at least this is the mantra of the caucus, or what they want to believe will happen.

  14. Another shocker of a week for Abbott.

    The NBN moved into its next phase.

    His plebiscite stunt showed him for the hollow infant he is.

    The Senate is about to leave the hands of darkness.

    And now JerkChoices is back in a looming spotlight. He loves JerkChoices but is petrified because the only ones who do like it are Liberals.

    Realistically the only thing that kept him afloat this week was the media … and they’re as poisonous and worthless as he is.

  15. And maybe Rudd will do us all a favour, retire from politics, and Labor will retain Griffith in a stunning by-election victory – yep, all very possible, right? 😉

  16. I don’t think I can in good conscience spare ShowsOn the rod I’ve applied to Frank. He can try again later if he likes – these bans will be imposed when I won’t be around and lifted when I am.

  17. No 67

    The problem for Labor is that their agenda is about new taxes, that’s it. They have raised concerns about sovereign risk and no-one listens to, or has confidence in, the government.

    Sussex Street spin won’t turn things around, no matter how hard they try.

  18. [If the carbon tax becomes reality, the boats stop coming, the mining tax is settled…..then Abbott will run out of things to be negative about, and be exposed for the policy free zone that he allegedly is – at least this is the mantra of the caucus, or what they want to believe will happen.]
    And could very well happen. Abbott will be the one at the next election promising big changes. People don’t like big changes as we can see by the polls ATM.

  19. [Sorry, I should have said the main – emphasis main – protagonists were male, with the rider that there might be females using male pseudonyms, but I doubt regular posters would be able to maintain that guise for too long.

    I’ll further concede that there were a few females posting last night but that for me is not the point.]

    What makes you say there are women using male pseudonyms? I don’t think there is any reason for them not to reveal the fact they’re women.

  20. Drone Airplane Crashes Into Roof Of Damaged Fukushima Reactor #2

    Fukushima, which has yet to be wrapped up into the world’s most surreal Christo project, has now entered the realm of the sitcom farce. According to Dow Jones, “A small 8.2 kilogram drone aircraft gathering data from heavily damaged areas of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant lost control Friday and landed on the roof of the No. 2 reactor building, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501.TO) said.

    The vehicle, known as a T-Hawk, is about 50 centimeters in diameter and looks like a small jet pack. It is used primarily by the military for reconnaissance work in dangerous areas. It has been used at Fukushima Daiichi since mid-April to assist in damage assessment.”

    What next: Getco’s SkyNet bots take control of the Johnny 5’s crawling and snapping pics inside the damaged reactors and all commit ritual suicide in the spent fuel rod pool (while churning shares of GM stock of course).

    There is nothing to worry about though: according to Tepco, which has a lot of credibility in this sort of thing, it is all under control.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/drone-airplane-crashes-roof-damaged-fukushima-reactor-2

  21. [Realistically the only thing that kept him afloat this week was the media … and they’re as poisonous and worthless as he is.]

    I have to say that this week did seem to be a turning point. I thought that either Gillard would have to perform some heroic act or that Abbott would bust the bubble and go too far.

    I think it’s the latter.

  22. george

    Absolutely brilliant! Thanks a million. Way and above my expectations.

    Minchin, Mad Monk and Monckton the mad. How appropriate.

  23. [Gusface @ 58:

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:48 pm | Permalink
    protagonists were male, with the rider that there might be females using male pseudonyms, but I doubt regular posters would be able to maintain that guise for too long.

    WOW

    what a sexist and stereotypical argument]

    Gus, you may see it that way but I’m sure you know what I mean.

  24. [george

    Absolutely brilliant! Thanks a million. Way and above my expectations.

    Minchin, Mad Monk and Monckton the mad. How appropriate.]

    Glad you enjoyndment it 🙂 I have submitted into BoingBoing also – hopefully they publish it

  25. [And maybe Rudd will do us all a favour, retire from politics, and Labor will retain Griffith in a stunning by-election victory – yep, all very possible, right?]
    Rudd doesn’t need to go anywhere. The crap we’ve seen this week re leadership will be subdued next year.

  26. charlton

    no I dont

    by your very insistence it was male, downgraded to manily male with a rider that a woman could maintain said persona

    sister you have a long way to go

    🙁

  27. News Ltd and talkback radio will always be biased against Labor – you won’t change that. Murdoch threw in his lot with Abbott long ago, and he’d probably be just as enthusiastic about Hockey or Morrison.

  28. [We have at least one such PBer and she is definitely a lady.]

    and there are definitely no gentlemen on this site…

  29. [I have to say that this week did seem to be a turning point. I thought that either Gillard would have to perform some heroic act or that Abbott would bust the bubble and go too far.]
    Hubris is gripping the Libs, particularly Tone. Further mistakes to come.

  30. [What makes you say there are women using male pseudonyms? I don’t think there is any reason for them not to reveal the fact they’re women.]

    There is a highly irregular woman commenter here who goes by the screen name of ‘Mark Twain’, but I can’t think of any others.

  31. Gary: Why someone like Peter Beattie ought to keep his opinions to himself.
    Labor’s support in QLD is too low, it’s smarter for Julia to keep Rudd inside the tent, ditto for Craig Emerson(who I’ve always got a lot of time for).

  32. [TLBD, I am trying out for 7.5 stars general]

    AHEM

    there is only one 7 stars generals

    lord bowe of the bill

    we can merely dream of attaining such lofty heights

  33. [Gary: Why someone like Peter Beattie ought to keep his opinions to himself.
    Labor’s support in QLD is too low, it’s smarter for Julia to keep Rudd inside the tent, ditto for Craig Emerson(who I’ve always got a lot of time for).]
    Agreed.

  34. I will suggest to Julia that she promotes Jason Clare, Mike Kelly, Andrew Leigh and one or two other younger ones with potential!
    The weak links for me are Joe Ludwig, Peter Garrett, Robert McClelland especially.

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