Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,187 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Shellbell: Bringing back Steve Whan is a good idea, because he was one of the few decent ministers in the Keneally Government. 🙂

  2. 14 June 2011 – Two milestones:

    1) Today sees the departure from the ABC Board of Directors of two of the remaining Howard appointees:

    a) Keith Windschuttle, right-wing historian and editor of conservative magazine, Quadrant

    b) Peter Hurley, National Senior Vice-President of the Australian Hotels Association

    Board Chairman, Maurice Newmann (close friend of John Howard) – tenure ends on 01 January 2012.

    2) The pitch for a GetUp! campaign to return the ABC to its Charter has now broken through the 1700-vote mark. Join the hundreds of Australians speaking up about the current state of the ABC. Read what others are saying. Have your say and vote on the petition at:

    http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/60819-campaign-ideas/suggestions/1684971-petition-for-abc-to-return-to-its-charter

  3. ANNABELCRABB | 2 minutes ago
    [Big Caucus meeting today. Round Two of the live exports debate, and I think it’s going to be a bit less one-sided than last time.]

  4. [It is not unreasonable for people to think that the poll has been suppressed when the newspaper decides not to follow an accepted cycle]

    I’m fairly sure there was a time when long weekends were not polled; but don’t know. William will. OTOH, It could be published tonight. How many NewsLtd beat-ups were there lat week?

  5. [1) Today sees the departure from the ABC Board of Directors of two of the remaining Howard appointees:]

    Is Labor going to do the ‘right’ thing and stack the board with lefties now? Seems fair considering what the government did.

  9. [Andrew Elder
    @awelder Andrew Elder
    @MrDenmore Abbott could call for dictatorship of the proletariat & his cheer squad wd praise his ‘toughness & consistency’ ]

    Trioli and Phil Kastaledis(?) were on a lovefest over Abbott’s Nauruan bike riding feats. Raved on about his strength on the bike while the poor lackies behind him were having trouble keeping up. Virginia was tremendously impressed because TA had to cope with the humidity, etc.

    Yep – credibility all round 😉

  11. Thanks Charlton. Frank Walker is a real gentleman. He saved the previous judicial officer who was before the parliament, Vince Bruce, despite Bruce being liberal candidate for Frank’s seat.

  12. [Sossman,

    The Labor government will not perpetuate the politicisation of the ABC ala Howard.]

    They’re too honest for their own good it seems. They’ve cut Government ads back and now won’t appoint friendlies to the ABC board. They’re fighting the MSM with one arm tied behind their back.

    I mean, on principle I support the depoliticisation (is that a even word?) of the ABC but I doubt the Coalition would continue with this approach in good faith when they take power again.

  15. [Thanks Charlton. Frank Walker is a real gentleman. He saved the previous judicial officer who was before the parliament, Vince Bruce, despite Bruce being liberal candidate for Frank’s seat.]

    Shellbell – does that ever happen in reverse, i.e. Liberals saving Laborites? I’m racking my brains to think but can’t remember anything.

    Labor made the mistake in 2008 of thinking the appointments of Liberals would create a better political environment. Labor forgot that the Libs don’t live in that world – except for when they leave politics and then the sods go into business/lobby stuff together.

  16. [But this is not Abbott’s position – or at least, not his public stance. He wants to be seen as an action man, and until now has been able to claim that his plan is an acceptable alternative – sure, his opponents have criticised it, but they would, wouldn’t they? We need an objective report.

    Well, now he has one. Notably he has not tried to discredit it: the Productivity Commission is, after all, a highly respected independent body originally set up by the Coalition – the very authority Abbott himself appealed to in his earlier attacks on the National Broadband Network. Instead, he has cherry-picked the findings that suit him while disregarding the killer watermelon at the heart of the findings. But it won’t work; eventually he will have to either formally join the sceptics or perform the greatest policy back flip of all time.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2756458.html

    While everyone is talking about Nauru, the coalition’s dilemma on climate change has slid under the radar.

  17. Sossman,

    [doubt the Coalition would continue with this approach in good faith when they take power again]

    They definitely wouldn’t, they wouldn’t know the meaning of the word. Perhaps noting the advantage Australian conservatives have received from interfering with our national broadcaster, the conservative government of New Zealand has recently heavily stacked the Board of Radio New Zealand National.

  23. victoria,

    The bombarding of the govt with questions about Nauru will just be handing the govt dixers loaded with ammo to make Abbott and Morrison look like the wallies they are.

  24. Good news (as far as I’m concerned). Berlusconi could lose immunity. Also on the Environmental front, Nuclear power may not tale off in Italy. They will be obliged to develope renewable energy.

    [Italian referendum likely to dash Berlusconi’s nuclear energy plans
    Prime minister dealt second political blow in less than two weeks as opponents succeed in getting turnout above 50%]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/italy-referendum-berlusconi-nuclear-energy

    [Under Italian law, referendums require more than half the electorate to vote to be binding. The government did all it could to keep turnout low and appealed to the courts for the vote to be declared illegal. Italian television, largely under Berlusconi’s sway, almost ignored the approaching ballots until the final days of a poorly funded, low-profile campaign.]

    Not mentioned in the Guardian article, one of the four referendum is to repeal Ministers immunity from prosecution, which could have a direct effect on Berlusconi.

    [Voters deal Berlusconi latest blow in referendums
    By COLLEEN BARRY , 06.13.11, 08:01 PM EDT

    MILAN — Italian voters turned out in large numbers to deal Premier Silvio Berlusconi his latest blow at the ballot box, overturning laws passed by his government to revive nuclear energy, privatize the water supply – and help him avoid prosecution.

    The defeat on four referendums on the ballot Sunday and Monday was Berlusconi’s second in as many weeks, after his candidates lost mayoral races in his stronghold Milan and trash-choked Naples in a vote the billionaire media mogul himself had billed as a referendum on his government.]

    http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/06/13/general-eu-italy-referendums_8514682.html

    [16:26 13 GIU 2011

    (AGI) Rome – The election turnout for the 2011 referendum rally recorded a 57% vote on all 4 issues. According to the Ministry of the Interior, in over 4000 out of the 8,092 municipalities, the turnout was of 57.01% for the question on the privatization of water supplies; 56.97% for the question on water rates; 56.87% on nuclear power plants and 56.90% on the issue of legitimate impediment.]

    http://www.agi.it/english-version/italy/elenco-notizie/201106131626-pol-ren1068-italian_referendum_results_57_of_polls_turnout_at_57

  27. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Independent Andrew Wilkie also demanded his deal be with JG specifically and not Labor: http://j.mp/iENlbY
    6 minutes ago

    in reply to ?
    Space Kidette
    @SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @latikambourke @franklinmatthew That wasn’t a story, it was a beat up based on a hypothetical. Abbott’s cheer squad at it again. #mediafail
    ]

  28. [Is Labor going to do the ‘right’ thing and stack the board with lefties now? Seems fair considering what the government did]
    You mean what the government prior to 2007 did.

  29. BH – cannot think of any recent appointments but I think the level of collegiality amongst politicians is higher than we are led to believe. Problem higher in the old days.

    Here is some fun reading of PK’s view when Costello was appointed to future fund

  31. [You mean what the government prior to 2007 did.]

    was supposed to say ‘previous’ government. Sorry, bad typo there.

  33. victoria,

    I did watch but I have to say the whole episode was so underwhelming I don’t remember what they discussed Mostly it was Bob Katterwauling and I tend to switch off.

    I was disappointed that Mike Carleton was on but didn’t get to comment much. I would love to see him in his own political news show.

  37. [Boerwar & Finns Fukushima Ltd.
    .
    Another business opportunity. The head of the Fukushima health study Doctor Shunichi Yamashita seems to have some remarkable IP for you to handle.The evidence for his possessing this unique knowledge is this recent quote from him “The effects of radiation do not come to people that are happy and laughing. They come to people that are weak-spirited, that brood and fret.”]

    poproti, we patented Happiness long time ago, including the algorithm to calibrate Happiness. We now own Bhuttan.

    The Dalai Lama tried to infringe our IP but was repelled. His giggling cut no ice. it’s business.

  40. [I would love to see him {Mike Carlton} in his own political news show.]

    Yes!

    If Channel 9 or 7 had any gumption they would put it head-to-head with Bolt, and let the cards fall where they may. I tend to think that, there being no other specifically left-leaning programs on radio or television (and a whole panoply of right-wing stuff) Mr Carlton would be in with a good chance of cleaning up.

  41. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Calling smart TV network executives: Give @MikeCarlton01 his own political news show. I’d like to see stupid BS artists try put it past him.
    ]

  42. You have to love twitter. There is always a good laugh to be had:

    [TatteredRemnant Tattered Remnant
    @
    @SpaceKidette @MikeCarlton01 You’re yelling into a void – ‘smart’ TV network executives? That’s mutual exclusivity writ large
    ]

  43. @ Victoria

    Watch the last 10 mins it’s not bad actually the evangelical guys question to Garrett was pretty good and gave him a chance to confront a few missconceptions. The gravity is just a theory quote is there then as well. Starts from 43.30 on iView

  46. [Six and an MPI by Morrison.]

    What happened to the old Censure Motion trick?

    Surely we’re overdue for a bit of pre-playschool ranting?

  49. [Salvor_Hardin_ David Richards
    by Dan_Gulberry
    @
    @Dan_Gulberry @SageBarnOwl how can you tell the plane is full of people on $150K? The whining doesn’t stop when the engines are shut down.
    ]

  50. Victoria, QandA was amusing enough to make it worth watching. Can’t remember what was discussed and I think Mr Katter’s hat was the best contributer, aside from the non-pollie youngen as usual.

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