Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.
I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not? This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.
Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.
confessions
Did you make this observation yesterday?
CRAZYJANE13 | 1 minute ago
[I’m just sayin’, but #bobkatt’s logo looks a whoooole lot like the Sky News one. (ping @theburgerman)]
Fran Kelly hit the jackpot this morning. A really bad interview with Nicholas Burns (she kept tripping over her words) followed by some of the worst music it has been my misfortune to hear.
End of grump, for the time being.
I am looking forward to following the Prime Minister’s trip to Alice Springs.
As Bob Hawke demonstrated, leadership can shine in dealing with indigneous issues – follow through is more difficult.
What chances now consideration of dedicated indigneous seats in the Commonwealth parliament? None of course but here is a good paper on the subject matter.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp23.pdf
I have a radically different take on the Uhlmann interview with Tony Abbott in Alice Springs to most here. I think he showed Abbott up by being more knowledgeable on the subject matter of the plight of those in Alice Springs than Abbott. That is what disappointed me because Abbott has some awareness on the matter.
Abbott offered us no vision – instead he told us who of the indigenous representatives he likes (Pearson etc) and something about grog.
I hope we get some vision this week.
Katter sounding like a deranged Tennessee confederate on Agenda with Fool Gilbert.
It is amazing to see what the Murdoch papers are doing today. Yesterday there were nationwide rallies in support of a climate policy. Yet according to them, the voters fell betrayed and want a new election based on one of their dodgy polls. Wait till the policy is released and then see if they want a new election?
Oops feel
victoria:
Yes, I too think the Australian Party logo looks like the old Sky one.
vp
Excuse my ignorance, but who is Nicholas Burns?
BK
they have always done that, if you dont like that you go to another hospital
there is more ways to find out about contraception than at catholic hospitals.
Personally i wouldnt ask any one that at a hospital when i had a baby, most people that need this very young girls ect are NOT in private health and go to the gov. run hospital They have a midwife that takes then through their pregnancy from day one.
and then visit back TO the hospital for check ups and discussion for 6 weeks,
i know this because i have family working at the mother and children’s section of the RHH,
Lets take this away and concentrate on the wonderful the catholic hospitals do for the community , the equipment and the nursing care.
it not new at all
dont just singe out one issue,
IT ALWAYS BEEN LIKE THIS SINCE catholic hospital in australia have existed.
BK
Thank goodness Katter is not supporting the govt
yes victoria we where very lucky katter went with the others,
lets hope he obstains , i think thats what he will do , lets see.
hope harry as a better day.
Andrew Leigh prosecutes his – and the government’s – points of view very well.
For those who argue that the Govt is incompetent in getting its message across, have a look at and remember todays treatment in Murdoch press of yesterdays rallies and this supposed Galaxy Poll. Its damned hard. The big question is how can anyone break this dominance of Aust.media. A problem is that the Murdoch press can then set the agenda which the sheep in the rest of the press gallery then follow.
[THE number of people suspended from the disability pension because they got a job has slumped 34 per cent, to its lowest level in seven years, raising concerns that policies to get people off welfare into employment are not working.]
i would suggest that a lot of people on this pension are elderley now and not being told to that they will be helped find work , i mean if you have been on this for years and your now 60 is it really worth the tax payers expense to train some one for a new position now.
I would bet anything this is the case.
wish we could actully find out.
off out now but some one may take the time to phone or write to their member for the answer.
[For those who argue that the Govt is incompetent in getting its message across, have a look at and remember todays treatment in Murdoch press of yesterdays rallies and this supposed Galaxy Poll. Its damned hard. The big question is how can anyone break this dominance of Aust.media. A problem is that the Murdoch press can then set the agenda which the sheep in the rest of the press gallery then follow]
well said its about time Twitter became the biggest media. we should send this RNMs off to all our members suggesting we just by pass the media, twitter and younger people will get bigger as this year and next goes on.
come on lets push it..
Alan Jones this morning derided yesterday’s rallies as just more garbage from the inner city left-wing university educated intelligentsia, or I think that’s what he was trying to say. 😉
Today’s Phillip Coorey in the Fairfax papers:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/what-a-difference-a-year-doesnt-make-20110605-1fn2v.html
[Alan Jones this morning derided yesterday’s rallies as just more garbage from the inner city left-wing university educated intelligentsia,]
Mmm….sounds to me like Jones thinks his audience are not that intelligent. 😀
[Nicholas Burns was US under secretary of state for political affairs and US ambassador to NATO during the George W Bush administration.]
[Bob Katter was on NewsRadio this morning. It was all pretty unedifying to be honest.]
shellbell, In Optional preferential Qld, I thought faces on last night’s news said it all. Bligh wore her I’ve been sucking a sour lemon so the grin’s under control face, though there were hints of it. Newman, whose demented dictatorial grin and glare face is Abbott’s cloned, looked OMG! It could be 1998 all over again!
Though Katter’s personal philosophies are, essentially, his family’s traditional ALP Grouper Right; he has good relations with his electorate’s (and other’s) indigenous people, and isn’t a racist (different from Hanson’s rancid racist right) I’m sure he’ll draw the same disaffected people, as well as the huntin’, fishin’, shootin’ parties. He’s certainly pro NBN, health reform, NQ Green Corridor, so is likely to pick up disaffected remote/regional area Coalition supporters who want those reforms.
But the biggest threat to Newman’s vaulting ambition should come from
(a) rural Nats appalled that SEQ urban Liberals (about as anti-Regions & the bush as they come) might do to Q’s vast, decentralised, farming and mining communities what Howard did: starve them of funds, ignore their infrastructure problems, let in more noxious insects & diseases (like fire ants, citrus canker, Bahama disease etc) by underfunding quarantine even more than in the past
(b) and, from Katter’s party voters (as well as ALP) thinking “Just vote 1” when they fill in the ballot, stripping away preferences.
BTW: No hint of Katter & the above in the recent Galaxy poll!
It pays never to count on OpPolls before polls close on election day.
Their ABC spinning like a top …
[“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/06/3236095.htm
PS: Jenauthor’s pitch to bring the
Abbott Broadcasting CorporationAustralian Broadcasting Corporation back to Charter now has 1562 votes and 661 supporters.http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/60819-campaign-ideas/suggestions/1684971-petition-for-abc-to-return-to-its-charter
i would want be reading mr corey evan
but i would point out to you and others that IT is this PM Julia Gillard who is making the hard decisions for this country NOW of course if she had sailed along giving out money for hospitals and propping up welfare and any thing else she could think of to follow the lead of the libs for 11 years
she would be way in front NO SHE HAS CHOSEN REFORM this brave lady has got it over all the others she is moving australia on to a better future./
as usual i dont read any negative stuff you leave hear but i notice the reading under the head line and i bet he is comparing polls with this time last year.
so he should get over it all so and point out the reasons are different
if you realy cared you would send off an email to the author and ask if Julia would be very popular if she did nothing
You would need to be an ostrich not to see what has been happening in Australian politics.
The media are running the narrative.
I said a long time ago that the Murdochracy wanted Howard gone, not the Coalition.
They state now, as a defence against accusations of bias that they supported Rudd.
All BS.
Murdoch & his minions were pressuring Howard to step down for Costello. He would not!
Payback, back Rudd & the ALP.
Since winning the 2007 election the ALP have been subject to relentless bashing from all media outlets.
It was never about supporting Rudd Labor, but getting rid of the rodent & installing Costello.
Do you honestly believe the ALP vote would have slid into the abys if policy analysis & not hysterical nitpicking wasn’t dished up consistently and as efffectively as any brainwashing program.
My rant for the day! 😡
vp
Thanks
Cuppa
[“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]
On the back of the rallies no doubt!
This is about making the Coalition the champion that pushed the government into action.
As BB says, “It writes itself”.
Better go!
Getting wilder by the minute.
Cannot believe that something has not been done about the media in this country.
😡 😡
Dee,
There needs to be a Royal Commission into the activities of the ABC, in my opinion. Name one other arm of the bureaucracy or public service which is permitted to be so aggressively partisan.
OZPol
Your analysis is a exponentially more interesting than anything else I am likely to see.
A headline from 14 May:
[Labor policy ‘unravelling’ as new boat arrives]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/14/3216978.htm?section=justin
Both Fairfax and News Ltd reported the number of attendees at yesterday’s rally in Perth as 3,000. Their ABC reported THREE HUNDRED. No funny business going on there, of course.
[i would suggest that a lot of people on this pension are elderley now and not being told to that they will be helped find work]
my say:
It could be. I just find it interesting that the govt enables greater scope for people on the disability pension to work without it affecting their benefits, but those people deriding the govt only weeks back for being harsh (or whatever) to Centrelink recipients don’t acknowledge these important changes.
Perhaps those critics don’t know about these changes, in which case they’ve done what I suspected they were doing at the time: be led by the hysteria carried in the news outlets.
Is this the one seat that the Oppo needs to fall??
http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-mp-drops-case-against-fairfax-20110605-1fnj4.html
daretotread
Your post at 2343 last night encapsulates every thing I feel! Congrats on a great post!
[“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]
Then the coalition had better change its policy on GHGEs to include a pricing mechanism, because there’s no way they will get more than a 5% reduction with the measures they’ve got at the moment. But you can bet THAT won’t be put to Hunt or Abbott!
[evan14
Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 9:07 am | Permalink
Alan Jones this morning derided yesterday’s rallies as just more garbage from the inner city left-wing university educated intelligentsia, or I think that’s what he was trying to say. 😉 ]
Evan, has anyone ever taken him up on his scientific discovery that laser beams might be faster than the NBN fibre optics? It looks all the more interesting with his agreement to lead the Gallileo society.
I should add that the coalition’s policy might deliver more than 5% reduction in emissions, but at HUGE cost to taxpayers.
Simply pricing emissions is the most efficient measure.
Having read overnight PB, and scanned most of the newspapers, I finally found an article that contains a little optimism on the govt and carbon pricing. Took an effort 🙁
As usual, the headline link isn’t true to the article’s contents.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/this-weeks-slow-shifting-of-the-sands-in-the-carbon-tax-debate-has-lifted-pressure-on-abbotts-just-say-no-stragegy/story-e6frerdf-1226068912802
[my say
Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 9:19 am | Permalink
i would want be reading mr corey evan
but i would point out to you and others that IT is this PM Julia Gillard who is making the hard decisions for this country NOW of course if she had sailed along giving out money for hospitals and propping up welfare and any thing else she could think of to follow the lead of the libs for 11 years
she would be way in front NO SHE HAS CHOSEN REFORM this brave lady has got it over all the others she is moving australia on to a better future./]
That’s very well put, My Say. I don’t think there’s much point in dwelling on the past, but there is that point:currently we are trying to make the hard decisions for the future. Before, there seemed to be a lot of backing off at the first sign of trouble (e.g. the Home Insulation program).
ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 10 minutes ago
[#auspol It is nice to see the right wingers so worried about the turnouts at the rallys that they are making up stuff. Again.]
Christopher Pyne is on qanda tonight, which means an hour of yelling at the television. I’m glad Nicola Roxon is on also, she’ll make the show much more bearable.
Text on abc radio reckons Katter should call his party
Katter’s Rural Australia Party
I like it
Melissa Parke says what a lot of people are saying.
[Labor backbencher Melissa Parke says she won’t agree to sending unaccompanied children to Malaysia under the government’s asylum seeker swap agreement.
Ms Parke, a former United Nations lawyer, said she could not agree to any deal that did not have the support of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
She said all children deserved a childhood and Australia had signed up to the UN convention on the rights of the child.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-mp-questions-malaysia-deal-20110606-1fnvd.html
vitalise
Thanks for the warning.
2437 confessions
Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 9:44 am | Permalink
[“The Coalition wants the Government to cut emissions by much more than the proposed 5 per cent by 2020 and make significant investments in renewable energy.”]
2439 confessions
Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 9:51 am | Permalink
[I should add that the coalition’s policy might deliver more than 5% reduction in emissions, but at HUGE cost to taxpayers.]
confessions, I have no problem with your comments on this statement, but where did the statement come from? It is not in quotation marks. It is not attributed to anyone. It is merely tacked on the end of a news item. Who wrote this piece? There’s no authorship attached.
By the way, is it common for the ABC to allow comments on a news item? I haven’t seen that before.
[authorship attached.
By the way, is it common for the ABC to allow comments on a news item? I haven’t seen that before.]
no i agree suppose its a negative one,
i am not sure either where that came from re the quote, was it to do withan interview by some on their abc this morning, maybe be go back a few pages, i am going filling time waiting for a friend so i want volunteer
2443 vitalise
Posted Monday, June 6, 2011 at 10:07 am | Permalink
[Christopher Pyne is on qanda tonight, which means an hour of yelling at the television.]
And an hour of hearing, I’ve been in parliament for 18 years in that extremely irritating nasally faux accent – apologies to South Aussies if that is normal in your state of the union.
At least it’s a change from last year’s “I’ve been in parliament for 17 years.”
[abor backbencher Melissa Parke says she won’t agree to sending unaccompanied children to Malaysia under the government’s asylum seeker swap agreement.]
each back member should have an opinion but discuss it with the pm first.
Diog
The timing is out in some of these reports, so that some commentators are talking at cross purposes, including the inimitable SH-Y.
[The UN refugee agency has issued its own update on the negotiations, emphasising that it is still very much involved in the talks, which it says have progressed significantly since the draft’s release last week.
The UNHCR has also noted and welcomed the Government’s assurance that sending unaccompanied minors to Malaysia would be decided on a case-by-case basis.
But that has not satisfied Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young. ]
I find that the overnight ABC is often as much as twelve hours behind events. No surprise there.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/06/3236113.htm?section=justin
2434 – if the odious “tort law reforms” were wound back and injured people received more reasonable compensation payouts from insurers, how many less DS pensioners would there be out there?
Media and talkback led the way wanting the rights of injured people wound back, now those same august institutions rail at the number of people left on Disability benefits.
These people were always going to end up on social security and paying for their medical expenses through the Medicare system.
We all pay, while insurers reap in billions.
Congratulations Bob Carr, you utter, utter ****.
i noticed mellissa Park from labor comes from the same area as SHY
interesting,