Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

The Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents which shows the Coalition with an imposing 59-41 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 4 per cent swing compared with the state’s result at the election (55.1-44.9), which is entirely in line with the general picture of national polling. On the primary vote the Coalition is almost doubling Labor, with a lead of 53 per cent to 28 per cent. Even more remarkable is the scale of Julia Gillard’s unpopularity in Queensland: she is favoured as Labor leader by just 19 per cent of respondents compared with 59 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 44 per cent and 33 per cent at the previous such poll in February (Wayne Swan has also dropped from 15 per cent to 9 per cent since then). We are variously told “Tony Abbott has pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin”, and that “Mr Abbott has pulled ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by 53 per cent to 47 per cent”. Hopefully the print edition will clear things up.

UPDATE: JWS Research now has full results from its post-budget automated phone poll of the 20 most marginal seats, which collectively showed an 8 per cent swing to the Coalition since the election. It points to an exacerbation of the state-level divide recorded at the election, with Coalition swings of 8.8 per cent swings in the NSW seats covered (Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Robertson, Greenway, Macquarie) and 9.8 per cent in the Queensland seats
(Petrie, Moreton, Brisbane, Forde, Longman), but only 3.6 per cent in the Victorian seats (Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Dunkley, Aston). Much further detailed is offered in the link, from which Spur212 in comments notes Tony Abbott’s astoundingly poor personal ratings among “soft” and anti-Coalition voters: his net approval is minus 35 among all soft voters, minus 74 among supporters of the opposing major party, minus 63 among minor party/independent supporters and minus 42 among the undecided. The respective figures for Julia Gillard are plus 1, minus 64, plus 3 and minus 12.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,963 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. truly george i have gone in to my shell the last week or so, they talk about him wanting a money spent on more mental health, well he is the cause of much depression i think.

  5. Mr Abbott does chicken little.
    So Ms Mirabella does chicken little, too.

    The Climate Commission Report will end Australia as ‘…a modern industrialised economy.’

    The sound of policy deliberations in the Liberal Party Room chookshed: ‘Cock-a-doodle-dooo! Quarrk, quarkk, cluck, cluck cluck, squawk, squawk…’

  7. Greg Hunt should be asked to comment as to whether he agrees with Minchin’s view on CC reported in the Australian.

  9. [There is nothing, absolutely nothing about this woman that is a positive.]

    You wonder how she continues to be preselected. Surely Indi can produce another Liberal who at least knows stuff and isn’t such a loud-mouthed bore.

  10. Come the election in two and a half years, boats and the carbon tax won’t be the issue – it will be Rupert. They’ll find something,anything. He will ensure it is almost impossible for the ALP government to hang on.Like it or not, they drive the political agenda.

  12. Not only is this ridiculous but it is wrong.
    [The point is that there are scientists that say at some stage it is inevitable that we are going to be hit by a meteor, by an asteroid,” he said.

    “Does that mean taking action against that?”]
    NASA, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have been tracking & researching impact prevention strategies. 😀

  13. Boerwar @ 1855

    Delightful images arise of the Liberal chookshed.
    Abbott crowing on his dunghill.
    Turnbull in a corner hatching a clutch of eggs (father unknown).
    JulieB squatting, patiently waiting for the cockerels to decide who will mount her.
    Hockey stuffing himself with grain.
    Hunt looking for a policy egg that he laid somewhere, amd can’t find it.
    Several Nats asleep on their perches.
    Morrison cackling endlessly, but noone paying attention.
    I won’t go on…..

  15. [I wish the unhinging would be complete sooner rather than later. I am just about spent!!!]
    Be careful what you wish for. Now is not a good time to be bringing on, say, a Turnbull.

  16. Sen Cameron has just brought up the CC statements by Minchin and co, in Senate Committee, asked the Ministry head if their statements were widely held elsewhere?
    Answer NO!!!
    Sen Cameron…can the scientists who did the report released this morning, who Sen Minchin has called alarmists, be called alarmists?

    Official…NO!!! They are dedicated professionals who are trying to make those who are not qualified understand the science….kapow on the Minchin jaw.

  19. [Come the election in two and a half years, boats and the carbon tax won’t be the issue – it will be Rupert. They’ll find something,anything. He will ensure it is almost impossible for the ALP government to hang on.Like it or not, they drive the political agenda.]
    This is just pessimism personified. If the government wins those issues you mention they’ll win the election.

  20. [Gary
    Posted Monday, May 23, 2011 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    I wish the unhinging would be complete sooner rather than later. I am just about spent!!!

    Be careful what you wish for. Now is not a good time to be bringing on, say, a Turnbull.]

    Gary it is more wanting to feast on the beast Abbotts entrails, rather than the whole body.

  21. “Come the election in two and a half years, boats and the carbon tax won’t be the issue – it will be Rupert”

    Maybe by then he will be sharing a cell with Conrad Black.

  22. [There is no longer a schism. The new interest in climate change and the environment is not surprising really. Benedict comes out of 1960s Germany, where environment and disarmament were major issues. It’s conceivable that his ministry could even culminate in a papal encyclical on the environment,” said one analyst. This would be the most powerful signal to the world’s Catholics about the need for environmental awareness at every level.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/apr/27/catholicism.religion

    what would abbotts reaction s be to this.

  23. Anyone else think that Turnbull was tipped off about the contents and release date of the Climate Committee report and that is *why* his appearance on Lateline now seems so well timed? 😉

  25. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, May 23, 2011 at 12:40 pm | Permalink
    Boerwar @ 1855

    Delightful images arise of the Liberal chookshed.
    Abbott crowing on his dunghill]

    lizzie our lazy chooks have not laid for nearly 6 weeks

  27. I don’t usually read Alan Kohler, but there is some sense in his piece on The Drum Today.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/23/3223817.htm

    [The two years now remaining until there is another federal election is an incredible dangerous period for Australia. Without the certainty of a clear, bipartisan plan, there will be no investment in electricity generation, and inevitable power shortages before the end of the decade.

    The parties need to find something else to fight about.]

    As usual, the head-in-the-sand types are filling up the comments section.

  34. Sooo, Mr Jensen joins Mr Abbott’s chicken little club.

    Our modern industrial industry is finished. The sky is going to fall in, and we are going to be hit by a meteorite. It’s inevitable.

  35. [BK

    I wonder what the group who didn’t support the Abbott/Minchin denial are thinking now.]
    lizzie

    Lots privately at the moment. Then the groups might form and grow.
    Let’s wait and enjoy watching it unfold.

  40. I came into that Katter PC a minute or two late and couldn’t make any sense of what was going on? Something about considering a new political party, but he hasn’t made his mind up. Sort of reminded me of the US pollies when they have a press conference to announce that they will announce at a later date whether they will be investigating whether to run for office.

  41. Bkluddy hell, I turned on ABC24 and there was Toxic Tone and his attendant viper.
    He’s not going to give an inch.

  42. BK he was all over the place, wouldn’t say what he is planning to do, but hinted it would be a new party, a coalition with some minor Queensland parties, I had never heard of. He is angry noone in Canberra is listening to him, not even the Indies, whom he has now given up on. Dislikes the Coalition, although Tone remains a friend, Labor not interested in his problems, so sod the lot of you basically…he is really rambling BK I turned him off. Sad person he is.

  43. Toxic Tone just said that the CC Commission says that direct action will be an important method of quick repair. He says they think burying carbon is a good way.

    Someone tell me they haven’t endorsed Tone. That’s not what I heard Steffen say this morning.

  44. The Senate closed for lunch so i tuned into live broadcast of the house and there was Warren (what do you call a bloke with 100 rabbits up his bum?) Truszzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

  46. There is still a Productivity Commission report to come, and with it the prospect of more Unhinging. 😀

  47. Oh it really is Penance day, switched over to the House of Reps and there is the Nats Leader and would be dep PM, drolling on arghh

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