Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [michellegrattan | 1 minute ago

    so did tim and julia have words over the football _ presumably someone’s onto this?]

    *sigh*

  3. Siege of Malta (World War II) – Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaMalta was one of the most intensively bombed areas during the war. …… Bristol Blenheim bombers also joined the defenders and began offensive operations. …
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_(World_War_II) – Cached – Similar

  6. [I don’t think the term ‘Prime Minister’ exists under our constitution, so that means it still isn’t official, but a courtesy title.]

    we actually have more in our polity than the Constitution, for example the parliament can make laws and rules to govern its own procedures. Also, successive governments have published guidelines such as the Cabinet Handbook which make how things work very clear.

  8. gwen

    tof outlines our return to a caveman (read introspective) like existence

    he sorta pre-empted the internet age

    some good social framework discussions

    in a way much more reasoned than “future shock”

  9. [ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    @ @michellegrattan Sounds like it is right up your alley.
    3 seconds ago Favorite Reply Delete ]

  10. Classy, classy stuff from Michelle. Besides, one of the news shows tonight revealed that Tim is a Richmond fan. Gasp!

  13. watched 60 minutes tonight – the Asylum Seeker story was quite remarkable – almost like one of those artistic thrillers with multiple overlapping stories loosely connected. i’m not sure this was what they meant, but it worked.

    they had the gotcha moment with Bowen, foot in the door (ACA style) at several detention centres, the ‘drone’ flying over North Camp, the insider “Ann’ with the hidden face (but no disguised voice – a bit disapointing there) spilling the beans on the allegedly monied people showing up at CI, the bleeding heart refugee advocate and a walk-over map of Australia with the detention centres and numbers displayed graphically, and a “success story” of an beautiful Afghani family explaining that they hadn’t heard of Australia until they arrived in Pakistan – and when asked how did they see themsleves now – answered “Australian”

  15. sprocket

    I was seduced into watching Eurovision! I gave 60 minutes a miss.

    But what was your takeout of the Asylum seeker story?

  18. Just thinking about The Abbott Problem…

    Seems to me a good way of dealing with him would be to treat him as a joke.

    “Another election? I thought we had an election, and then a prolonged period of negotiation afterwards… and Mr. Abbott lost both, through his own fault.”

    “Joe and Tony are thrashing around like two ferrets in a sack. Lots of movement and noise, but the sack’s still there.”

    “Tony’s the the drunk at a party we all dread. He picks a fight with everyone, hoping to clear the room. Then he can have it all to himself.”

    “Mr. Abbott revs up his hot rod, chucks a wheelie and yells something out the window… drive-by policies from a drive-by politician.”

    “‘Tony Abbott said’? I wondered what that noise was.”

    “Mr. Abbott is trying to gate-crash Australian democracy by bluffing his way into office without an invitation.”

    “Tony Abbott never saw a bathroom window he didn’t want to climb through.”

  24. [But what was your takeout of the Asylum seeker story?]

    the complexity of the issue came through, as did the crazy cost of keeping 7,000 people locked up (did not mention JWHs $1b to process 1,500 on Nauru however)

    i think the sequencing of the story would make the viewer want a solution to the complex problem, disgust at the rorters, but with compassion for the genuine refugees. Interestingly, grabs from Bowen and JG explaining the new Malaysia/PNG policy – BUT nothing from Morrison or TA. The libs were not given the airtime to define the problem, nor suggest their solution. wonder why?

    the producer was Howard Sacre – ex ABC and one of the best at the craft

  25. BB @ 2418

    “Joe and Tony are thrashing around like two ferrets in a sack. Lots of movement and noise, but the sack’s still there.”

    This must be “The Night Of The Ferrets”, that is the second mention of them tonight and I don’t recall any previous mentions.

  42. [Its funny. The refugee situation is odd.

    There are those without the wherewithall and capacity to flee no further than just accross the border. Yet there are others who can neogtiate passage across several international borders.]

    If you have the wherewithall you go by plane, that hasn’t been turned into a political football.

  46. You know, this really depresses me, because I don’t think that this government is doing at all badly!
    Alas the News Ltd/talkback radio assault on Gillard is just manna from heaven for Abbott.

  48. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    Next Newspoll will be dreadful.]

    It won’t be worse, and I’m willing to bet the next will be better. I think Abbott has finally gone too far.

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