Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote falling three points to 34 per cent, their worst result in this series since October 1997 (NOTE: Not 2007, as this post read originally). The Coalition is up two to 48 per cent, with the Greens up half a point to 11 per cent. On both the respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is at 54.5-45.5, respectively comparing with 53.5-46.5 and 52-48 last time. Labor can perhaps take some consolation that the Morgan face-to-face pro-Labor bias seems to have alleviated a little since the carbon tax was introduced. Where traditionally this series has had Labor about 3 per cent higher than the phone poll average, it has lately been more like 1 or 2 per cent. This result covers polling from last weekend, encompassing an unusually small sample of 791.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  3. [Gweneth – groping is apolitical I think although Chris Smith of 2GB is a groping/forging paid up sprouter of capitalism]

    I knew about the groping (he admitted it himself) and the problem with grog, but what’s this about forging?

    (Sorry, but some of HI’s native bee research was in the clipboard.)

  5. 2332

    Pitt the Younger was First Lord of the Treasury and did not hold any post called Prime Minister. The official office of Prime minister was created in the UK in 1905. Thus (I presume) Australia had an official Prime Minister before the UK.

  7. It would have been a cracking policital/legal dilemma if the alleged groping (but proven) socialist Frenchie had got back to France and the US sought extradition

  8. [victoria
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
    bg

    Grouchy because?]

    Its funny. The refugee situation is odd.

    There are those without the wherewithall and capacity to flee no further than just accross the border. Yet there are others who can neogtiate passage across several international borders.

    The ALP have only just seemed to cotton on to this. Its not about the numbers, its about the strange and immeasurable unfairness in that we take so few from the place in our region who needs it the most.

    The Karen People have been systematically persecuted. They are not just fleeing from a war, but from a war AND persecution.

    I hope Rudd’s visit is a sign that we will take more from this part of the world.

  9. [shellbell
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
    It would have been a cracking policital/legal dilemma if the alleged groping (but proven) socialist Frenchie had got back to France and the US sought extradition]

    😆

  10. bg:

    [I hope Rudd’s visit is a sign that we will take more from this part of the world.]

    If the govt can negotiate a deal with Thailand, do you think this is likely?

  11. [If the govt can negotiate a deal with Thailand, do you think this is likely?]

    A certainty, I would have thought. Thats where their refugees are from.

  15. [Rudd has certainly been the everywhere man lately. He is a man on a mission]
    I think he’s a man on several missions.

  16. bg:

    The benefits of a genuine regional processing unit are starting to become much more apparent to me.

  20. [shellbell
    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 7:44 pm | Permalink
    Bluegreen – remember when Bob Hawke said nice things about Burma in 1995?
    ]

    No. I wasnt into politics at the time.

  21. I unfortunately came across the front page of the Sunday Traumatic today. The screaming headline read :Julia will you marry me” obviously from Julia’s partner.

    Sorry, I don’t believe it, the rag has no credibility in my opinion and it’s none of their business unless the PM and her partner wanted it to be.

    How do we know that no phone tapping devices were not used anyway?

    I tried to keep away from the front page in fear of catching a disease.

  23. [Centre

    Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    I unfortunately came across the front page of the Sunday Traumatic today. The screaming headline read :Julia will you marry me” obviously from Julia’s partner.

    Sorry, I don’t believe it, the rag has no credibility in my opinion and it’s none of their business unless the PM and her partner wanted it to be.

    How do we know that no phone tapping devices were not used anyway?

    I tried to keep away from the front page in fear of catching a disease.
    ]

    It was a VERY small part of a wide ranging interview with Tim – but guess which bit they went with.

  24. Thanks for the corrections

    So Australia’s first prime minister was unmarried, wasn’t called a prime minister
    and didn’t know that part of what he governed was called Australia.

  25. [For your viewing pleasure BB but only if you promise not to listen to 2GB any more:

    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/gbs-chris-smith-reflects-on-his-bad-behaviour/story-e6frfmqr-1225712352657%5D

    Ok, so it’s ALL by his own admission.

    The forging. The groping. And the grog.

    And this bastard arrogates to himself the right to judge others?

    Geez, now I’ve heard it all.

    The one thing that consoles me is thathe’s a srial ratbag. He WILL offend again, of that I am sure.

  28. 2374

    Wasn`t OFFICIALLY called Prime Minister. The term was used well before it was official.

  29. The current polls do NOT reflect the respective performances of the two major parties at the moment.

    If the polls don’t change in the next 15 months or so there are serious problems. I think politics should be part of the school curriculum. The education of politics and peoples understanding of their democratic rights has a long way to go!

  30. Offend again, go to radio purgatory for a stint again, return again reformed(?) again.

    This makes up the usual sequence BB

  36. GG I heard that you can use the newspaper to get your windows really clean?

    I haven’t tried it. I’d want a bottle of Pine O Clean handy in case, not for the windows but for my healths protection.

  37. Could you guys imagine if Tim proposed to Julia on the eve of an election campaign?

    How much flak would they cop!

  39. I know the malicious and nameless gossipers use the PM’s unmarried status for some perceived advantage but I cant remember anyone at the top’s family situation having much bearing on politics in the last 20-30 years?

  41. spaceK

    great show on 9

    except they were showing valetta, malta is the country

    the caves were about 100 yrs old as well

    besides that, a good watch

  43. Gus,

    I was hoping they would show more of the details of the battle, but hey still good. But I am a big girly sook so I end up in tears. 😥

  44. I don’t think the term ‘Prime Minister’ exists under our constitution, so that means it still isn’t official, but a courtesy title.

  48. Just ducked down to the bottle-o and had a strange conversation with the young man behind the counter.

    He asked if I had read Future Shock -I said yes, a long time ago. Wasn’t it great he said. I said yes, very interesting.

    In each new generation there is hope…

  50. MICHELLEGRATTAN | 2 minutes ago
    [so did tim and julia have words over the football _ presumably someone’s onto this?]

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