Roy Morgan has performed its occasional trick of confusing the hell out of people who don’t follow its activities closely, by releasing two sets of opinion poll results at the same time. One is a phone poll from a solid sample of 882 respondents with a margin of error of a bit under 3.5 per cent, and it shows what we have come to expect from polls of this kind regardless of who conducts them: the Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred and by 46 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 11 per cent. The two-party result is much the same if you use respondent-allocated preferences rather than preferences from the 2010 election result: 54-46.
The other poll covers Morgan’s last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, and has the Coalition lead at 52-48 using 2010 election preferences and 53.5-46.5 using respondent-allocated preferences. It should be noted that the consistent discrepancy in these results, with the former proving more favourable to Labor, has been a recent phenomenon, resulting from a decline in the share of non-major party voters indicating a preference for Labor. The primary votes are at 37 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens.
We also had earlier this week Newspoll results on climate change and the carbon tax, with even worse results for the government than usual: only 30 per cent are in favour of its policy, with 60 per cent opposed. It has of course been shown the the government gets much kinder results if it is put to respondents that most of the money raised will be used for compensation: this particular question asked respondents for an opinion “based on what you may know about it”, which is highly reasonable methodologically but possibly obscures some of the issue’s political complexity. Beyond that, 78 per cent “believe in climate change”, and 72 per cent (58 partly, 14 per cent entirely) believe it to be caused by human activity. However, only 39 per cent are in favour of paying more for energy as a result: 30 per cent are opposed despite believing human activity to be a cause, with 28 per cent either not believing or not committed.
[The Paintings in the collection by Rembrandt van Rijn:
Tobit and Anna with the Kid
Musical Allegory
Self Portrait 1629
Jeremiah Lamenting the Destruction of Jerusalem
An Old Woman Reading, probably the Prophetess Anna
Bust of Young Woman (probably Saskia van Uylenburgh)
Joseph Telling his Dreams
Portrait of Johannes Wtenbogaert
Portrait of van Haesje Jacobsdr van Cleyburgh
Landscape with a Stone Bridge
Dead Peacocks and a Girl
Portrait of Maria Trip
The Company of Captain Frans Banning Cocq and Lieutenant Willem van Ruytenburch
Portrait of Ephraim Bueno
The Denial of Peter
Titus as a Monk
Self-portrait as the Apostle Paul
Syndics of the Drapers’ Guild
The Jewish Bride
Paintings in the collection by Johannes Vermeer:
The Milkmaid
The Love Letter
Woman in Blue Reading a Letter
The Little Street
Paintings in the collection by Frans Hals:
Portrait of a Young Couple
The Company of Reynier Real
The Jolly Drinker
Portrait of Lucas De Clercq
Portrait of Nicolaes Hasselaer
Portrait of a Man
Paintings in the collection by Jan Steen.
The Feast of Saint Nicholas
The Drunken Pair
The Toilet
Adolf en Catharina Croeser
Arent Oostwaard and his wife
]
Enjoy Jen
[(I won a free lesson from A Robb in a raffle)]
What was the catch? Perhaps you should donate the prize to someone more fortunate than yourself.
BG – true. It must be physically difficult to build up much gravitas in the lower house when you are in a smallish place such as the LA is and wherever you look are your opponents. It would be good to see a photo to see who on the Lib/NAt side gets to sit right around on the opposition side.
jen,
They’d also question why some of the pieces weren’t green, complain that there should be a separation of religion and board games and demand that Knights be re named Order of Australians.
A very interesting segment from todays ‘Tips and Rumors’ segment in Crikey…
“Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.”
[jenauthor
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 3:54 pm | Permalink
Lots of great artists other than Vermeer and Rembrandt, though, B-G. I just love immersing myself in ALL European art and architecture. Will be spending some time in Milan also (where Ive never been) and can’t wait.]
Have a great time. It should be amazing.
Catch? The example was: find the 5 most respected accounting firms in Oz.
GG
Not to mention why the white side always moves first. 😉
[David
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
A very interesting segment from todays ‘Tips and Rumors’ segment in Crikey…
“Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.”
]
Bilbo dismissed that proposition when it was raised at the time.
Lies, Damn Lies and Newspoll 🙁
Me thinks that Baillieu might get caught in the faux outrage of the media pack/ so-called community on this issue.
A review is probably the right thing to do, though.
All that and all they do is announce an inquiry
[
heidimur Heidi Murphy
Overland stays ; inquiry launched in police admin #springst
]
http://twitter.com/HeidiMur
Ahhh — the Rijksmuseum!
we did do not far from the Dam Square, there is a cake shop in the square that has the same dutch/french name as my oh they sell cream buns Jen see if you can work it out.
love the chips as you walk along there on the far side not far from the station.
mayonnaise on chips is something we have alwasy done.
and the building that look as they are are falling in to the canals and or course Anne franks home
we bough a ticket that was like a european pass and went in all the museums with out queuing , i hate queuing on the one pass
Happy that they have confidence in the Chief Commissioner.
shellbell @ 2694
It probably happens a lot like it does in Victoria although I think Victoria has improved in recent years.
Read some of the submissions to the Victorian Parliamentary Law Reform Committee Inquiry into the Coroners’ Act 1985.
Many Coroners would seem to have trouble tracking a bleeding elephant through snow and you have to wonder if they are more interested in looking after their careers or pursuing other agendas. This is all the more so when police or a govt department such as health is in the firing line.
Will inquire into the administration of Vic police. Well, that’s that solved, then.
[
heidimur Heidi Murphy
Govt will wait for ombudsman’s reports later in the yr before making decisions about admin of Vict Police
]
http://twitter.com/HeidiMur
[Enjoy Jen]
I plan to B-G. Have been twice before (having family in Holland means I get there every few years).
I am going to go to the Hals (I think it is his) museum in Haarlem as well. And though I’m not religious, I can’t resist going into every church and marveling at the architecture. Last time I took my daughter (her first time OS) for her 21st. We went into St Bavo (began 600s) and she nearly wet herself!
[
heidimur Heidi Murphy
Ryan: ‘I do have faith in the Chief Commissioner’s ability to discharge his abilities’
]
http://twitter.com/HeidiMur
So once again Ted decides to do nothing. How surprising.
[Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes]
polsters shoudl be made when releasing a poll have the question next to it.
then we get the picuture.
i would of found the above very hard to say yes to if i new no better.
i would hope the gov know this
[mayonnaise on chips is something we have alwasy done.]
Fritesaus … the only way to eat chips!
my say and BG – On the subject of art, there’s a Manet exhibition at the Orsay in Paris til early July. Have any PB’ers been to Paris? I’d love to do a trip to see it. Be wonderful.
[A very interesting segment from todays ‘Tips and Rumors’ segment in Crikey…
“Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.”]
Still “tosh” William?
Crikey reports:
[Treasurer Wayne Swan set off for a stroll around Lake Burley Griffin at dusk on Sunday, clearing his head for the big week ahead.]
I bet he didn’t: it’s about 25k. Probable around Central Basin: 3k.
Well, that was a dull, droning press announcement by our noble leaders in Vic. Not at all impressive, and so repetitive and stumbling by Big Ted that I kept losing the thread.
deblonay @ 2696
I remember Billy Snedden… he was my local member. Famously ‘died on the job’.
Actually he was apparently reasonable as a man and I was not disappointed when the local council named a street after him.
Frozen journos a bit stroppy.
I am a Labor hack, but I agree with the course of action taken by Ballieu
The Newspoll push-poll.
If this is true, should be made more public and the pollsters need their bottoms spanked.
It also raises the Q – how many other pushpolls have we not been told about?
lizzie
Not sure what your thoughts are about Vic Pol, but I am certain Overland is dealing with some difficult issues relating to the whole Carl Williams and the underworld.
vic,
Baillieu and Ryan are like Baldrick trying to implement one of his cunning plans.
[victoria
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:07 pm | Permalink
I am a Labor hack, but I agree with the course of action taken by Ballieu
]
Same here.
No Doubt the Deputy Commissioner had leave accrued up until his date of Resignation – so Overland was well within his powers to tell him to take it all now rather thn lose it.
[If, I went to Amsterdam, it would be for the Vermeers and Rembrandts.]
The van Goughs. Bluegreen. I spend more time that museum than in the Rijks.
I remember reading the Truth’s “It was loaded” article about Billy Snedden’s death.
I wonder if Mark Day wrote it personally
[victoria
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:08 pm | Permalink
lizzie
Not sure what your thoughts are about Vic Pol, but I am certain Overland is dealing with some difficult issues relating to the whole Carl Williams and the underworld.
]
Of course he is – and I’ll bet that those gunning for Overland have their fingers in some very uncomfortable pies.
[A very interesting segment from todays ‘Tips and Rumors’ segment in Crikey…
“Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.” ]
William
Does it surprise you that Newpoll would agree to poll on such a question?
[Treasurer Wayne Swan set off for a stroll around Lake Burley Griffin at dusk on Sunday, clearing his head for the big week ahead.]
Geez I hope he had his thermal undies on. I would rather stick my head in the freezer.
[
“Loaded questions in NewsPoll call. I was a respondent to NewsPoll on Sunday May 1. The question requiring an opinion on the introduction of a carbon tax was classic push polling. We were asked, and I paraphrase, “Would you support a carbon tax if it meant that the price of food and power would rise substantially?” The Australian reported, unsurprisingly, that only 30% said yes! Given that the question omitted any reference to the government’s promise of substantial compensation when the carbon tax is introduced, it is astonishing that the figure in favour was as high as 30%.”
]
The Newspoll questions
[
Question: Under carbon pricing schemes, the price of energy sources such as petrol, electricity and gas may become more expensive. Would you personally be in favour or against paying more for energy sources, such as petrol, electricity and gas if it would help slow the climate change caused by human activity?^
]
Result
In favour 39
Against 30
[
Based on what you may know about it, are you personally in favour or against the federal government’s current proposal to put a price on carbon?
]
Result
Total in favour 30
Total in against 60
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/newspoll-110504-climate-change.pdf
victoria @ 2728
As one Labor hack to another, I agree.
I don’t think we will ever see Baillieu do anything rash. He strikes me as ultra-cautious to the point of near paralysis.
Just saw a SKY grab of Abbottabad. Glen’s hero behind him looked like he was about to cry.
Someone should tweet @pollytics
[Lies, Damn Lies and Newspoll 🙁 ]
Frank I have had doubts about the way Newspoll conduct their polls, or should I say Martin O’Shannessy on News Ltd behalf, over the last 6 years particularly. Anything the Australian have their grubby hands on, smells of an agenda.
One has to merely read the garbage they write, to be suspicious of anything they do, with the odd exception of course. I would never believe George Megalogenis would be involved in anything grubby or underhand.
Frank Calabrese
uncomfortable pies is an understatement. I don’t know if the facts will ever see the light of day, but some cops have got their hands very dirty.
shellbell @ 2734
I refrained from mentioning that. 😆
madcyril,
100% that written = asked?
victoria
I’m happy with Big Ted’s “decision”. From my pov, Simon Overland has had the rough end of the pineapple for the whole of his appointment, because he was selected from Intelligence instead of the good old working copper side of the force. He battled to control some very underhand and possibly illegal activities by his own force, and has been fighting jealousy as well as the Police Union throughout.
I wonder if this “inquiry” is to make the govt look as if they are “taking him on” when actually they couldn’t find that he did anything out of order.
Very sad that we are losing the UK policeman, though.
Billy Snedden’s death titillated a nation.
Unless the issue is the relationship between Commissioner and Minister then, surely, the admin of the force is up to the Commissioner?
[vp
Posted Monday, May 9, 2011 at 4:16 pm | Permalink
Unless the issue is the relationship between Commissioner and Minister then, surely, the admin of the force is up to the Commissioner?
]
In a nutshell – Yes.
As I keep saying the real people running Victoria Police are the Victorian Police Associan, who like their WA Counterparts make the CFMEU look like a Scout Troop.
Harada giving the thumbs up for Rose. Nice gesture.