Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  2. 3099 shellbell
    Posted Friday

    well my oh goes to the sport chanel now then there is the programe on the customes
    at airports.
    and then there last night a cooking show italian food on sbs which is great
    so there is an example

  3. Conservatives not doing too badly so far in the English local elections. They’re currently seeing a net gain in councillors. The big ‘backlash’ has been for the Liberal Democrats, so far dropping almost 200 councillors and losing control of 2 councils.

    Welsh Labour look to be heading towards a majority in the Welsh assembly.

    The SNP are doing very well in the Scottish elections, gaining a horde of constituency seats from Labour (and a couple from the Conservatives and the Lib Dems – who didn’t have many to begin with). The Scottish Labour leader clung onto his seat by just under 200 votes.

  5. whether they are tree huggers or a Communist Lite front.

    Communist Lite? Hello? You didn’t dig far enough back, GG!

    At best, you should have written Pantisocracy Lite adding, and consequent movements which predate Communism by nearly a half-century and, to some extent, influenced Marx.

    The son of a clergyman, Coleridge was a precocious, dreamy child. He attended Christ’s Hospital school in London and was already formidably erudite upon entering Cambridge in 1791. His erratic university career was interrupted by his impulsive enlistment in the dragoons, from which his brothers managed to extricate him. In 1794 he met the poet Robert Southey Southey, who shared his political and social idealism, and together they planned to establish a small utopian community, which they called a pantisocracy, on the banks of the Susquehanna River in the United States. The plan failed to materialize for practical reasons.

    http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/S.+T.+Coleridge

    But not before Coleridge & Southey had articulated a movement which would lead to the development of Utopian Socialism (inc, In Oz, William Lane’s New Australian Movement which migrated to Paraguay), pantheism (& animal liberation) the hippy movement and the Greens.

  6. If it isn’t too late the government should drop the revival of the Pacific Solution. Not only is it a blatant breach of our human rights obligations, but it will also be seen as another backflip:

    For six long months, Aladdin was the sole detainee left in Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island detention centre. This came at a cost of $200,000 a month. He waited, alone, for decision makers in far-off Canberra to make a call on his claim.

    From 2001 to 2007, Australia spent more than $1 billion to process less than 1700 asylum seekers in the Pacific Solution’s offshore locations of Manus Island and Nauru. This equates to more than half a million dollars per person.

    Eventually Aladdin, like most of the others, were found to be genuine refugees and settled in Australia or New Zealand. One of the first acts of the newly elected Labor government in 2007 was to affirm its policy never to institute the discredited Pacific Solution again.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pacific-solution-exacts-too-high-a-price-20110506-1eb9v.html#ixzz1LXsmikBH

  7. David:

    Thanks again for the ratings figures.

    I wonder if 4Corners has improved on the back of Red Kerry’s move there. 😀

  8. OPT,

    The remnants still float around like the Druids. We call them Collingwood supporters these days.

  9. JV basically I think the government is desperate. It’s hard to believe they could backflip this far if they do in fact re-open Manus Island. Personally I think they would be better off in the polls if they reverted to their 2007 policy of speeding up processing of claims. They have really lost the plot over this issue trying to please everyone.

  10. JV,

    You are a great barometer. If the Government and the ALP are peeing you off, they must be doing something right.

  12. Projections suggest the SNP will win a majority in the Scottish parliament. First Minister, Alex Salmond, has already promised a referendum on Scottish independence in the next term.

  15. shellbell, my guess would be no (without seeing any evidence either way) but it’d still be interesting to see how the issue played out. It’d certainly throw up a new issue for David Cameron to deal with.

  16. conceravota Concera Vota
    @
    @ScottMorrisonMP Keep spinning Scott! You’ll eventually get so dizzy — we’ll all vomit!
    46 seconds ago Favorite Reply Delete

  17. GG

    For those who think there is no problem, this is part of Monbiot’s own essay in The Guardian. The link you have given is written by someone else.

    The problem we face is not that we have too little fossil fuel, but too much. As oil declines, economies will switch to tar sands, shale gas and coal; as accessible coal declines, they’ll switch to ultra-deep reserves (using underground gasification to exploit them) and methane clathrates. The same probably applies to almost all minerals: we will find them, but exploiting them will mean trashing an ever greater proportion of the world’s surface. We have enough non-renewable resources of all kinds to complete our wreckage of renewable resources: forests, soil, fish, freshwater, benign weather. Collapse will come one day, but not before we have pulled everything down with us.

    And even if there were an immediate economic cataclysm, it’s not clear that the result would be a decline in our capacity for destruction. In east Africa, for example, I’ve seen how, when supplies of paraffin or kerosene are disrupted, people don’t give up cooking; they cut down more trees. History shows us that wherever large-scale collapse has occurred, psychopaths take over. This is hardly conducive to the rational use of natural assets.

    All of us in the environment movement, in other words – whether we propose accommodation, radical downsizing or collapse – are lost. None of us yet has a convincing account of how humanity can get out of this mess. None of our chosen solutions break the atomising, planet-wrecking project. I hope that by laying out the problem I can encourage us to address it more logically, to abandon magical thinking and to recognise the contradictions we confront. But even that could be a tall order.

    Some of these points were covered by PBers a few days ago.
    Interesting.

  18. There are some YouGov figures in Wikipedia which suggest that its popularity is of about AV proportions?

  19. our Julia has more than a whiff of Lady Macbeth following her around.

    A wee bit partisan about the Scottish Play there, GG! Especially as, at its core, lie the Gunpowder Plot & other trials of Jesuits who used techniques of equivocation and lying with mental reservation, the most obvious example is Tony Abbott – not that he’s the only SJ Old Boy on the Opposition front bench or ones further back.

    Were you next in line for that spade Bluegreen was wielding with such enthusiasm yesterday?

  20. LYNDALCURTIS | 3 minutes ago

    Tonight on Capital Hill we’ll talk to the Treasurer about the budget big picture. 1730 AEST #

  24. ..or in other words, we’ll talk to this bloke (the one in the middle) about what he’s doing on Tuesday night http://lockerz.com/s/99143141

    Not surprised she has to remind people who the Treasurer is. The number of times the ABC gives space to Hockey, you could forgive people thinking he was the Treasurer!

  25. If it isn’t too late the government should drop the revival of the Pacific Solution. Not only is it a blatant breach of our human rights obligations, but it will also be seen as another backflip:

    Once again a big statement based on no detail.

  26. Oooh

    BERNARDKEANE | 3 minutes ago

    Hey ABC better start winding up your publicity arm eh? RT @AYCC: …#climate #denier Lord Monckton to return for another tour of Australia

  29. If BK is around, here’s an update on what Sophie is up to:

    http://bit.ly/kHEzE6

    WTF has this got to do with her portfolio?

    Dan
    I was out most of the day, however getting into the car I heard Sophie’s unique, carping voice on the subject matter.

    In a speech to the Australian Family Association in Melbourne, Ms Mirabella strayed from her industry and science shadow portfolio to let rip at “raunch culture” the advertisers that exploit it, and the industry body that oversees it.

    confessions
    The word “raunch” within the same paragraph as Sophie simply does not compute.

  30. Not really funny, but so many people rely blindly on technology… 😀

    A farmer lost in Melbourne’s CBD and using a GPS to try to get home disrupted traffic in Melbourne after wedging his truck under a rail overpass at a key city intersection this afternoon.
    The semi-trailer, which has now been freed, was stuck under the rail bridge at the intersection of Flinders and Spencer streets for about two hours, causing traffic chaos.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lost-farmer-causes-traffic-chaos-in-cbd-20110506-1ebdc.html#ixzz1LY7aaTpM

  33. The word “raunch” within the same paragraph as Sophie simply does not compute.

    And nor should it, BK. 😮

  35. confessions the last figures for 4Corners are

    Four Corners (ABC) (8.30pm)?—?691,000 – Mon 2nd May 2011

    Four Corners (ABC) (8.30pm)?—?761,000 – Mon 11th April 2011

    Inbetween those, the ABC ran Paper Giants, the teledrama about the birth of Cleo, on consecutive Mondays, both nights drew well over a million viewers.
    I guess the numbers 4Corners draws, very much depends on the subject.
    That of course does not dismiss the fact, there will always be a hard core of regulars, who never miss.

    It is worth noting Geo Negus is slowly hauling in new viewers every week, they have to be coming from somewhere, but his first edition at 6-30 has as major competition, Nines A Current Affair. That has constant viewers around the 1.1 million nightly, 10’s new viewers are not from there. His viewers for last night were

    6.30 with George Negus (Ten) (6.30pm)?—?500,000

    Only 101,000 behind ABC ‘s 7-30

    Were it any other organisation than the ABC, on those figures,Toolman’s days would be numbered.

  36. A Senate inquiry into competition in the banking sector is recommending the Government reconsider its ban on mortgage exit fees.

    The report handed down today has made a series of recommendations to improve competition in the banking sector, which tightened in the wake of the global financial crisis.

    The Senate committee felt an outright ban on exit fees would reduce competition from the non-bank lenders.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/06/3209841.htm

  37. Iisn’t there a joke about a feather being titillation and raunch being the whole chicken?

  38. Monbiot may have a point but he lost a lot of credibility when he allowed himself to be conned by the ClimateGate beat-up.

  43. David:

    Thanks for that. I couldn’t begin to guess where his viewers are coming from. The TV watching habits of Australians always surprise me.

  45. victoria

    Yes, they said several in one year.
    It’s a pity the GPS system can’t include some sort of warning. Like they do at the edge of a cliff – Not 🙂

  47. BK

    Will you be viewing the Contrarians today?

    vic
    I will try. But I just heard that that horrible, smarmy Chris Kenny will host it.

  50. Right wing — right wing, right wing and even more right wing guests on Contrarians!

    Would rather eat my own vomit!

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