Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. Hey BK — they should name the next species of snake the Mirabella.

    Main characteristic — eats own young and fouls own nest. Short, wide-bodied creature with extremely red lips and hooded eyelids. Forked tongue, inclined to hiss a lot, but the venom is weak and no real danger to humans.

  2. ModLib @ 29

    Tony Jones looked as tho he was furious that the session went too well for Crean and Windsor.

    I actually agree with the view that Simon Crean and Tony Windsor came out of QandA looking very very good and Sophie very very bad…but why criticise Tony Jones? He practically gave the former two a free ride and kept trying to wrap up Sophie’s comments (and good on him 😉 ) so how can you claim he was biased yet again???

    I fully agree.

    All these claims of bias all the time are getting to the point of serious paranoia and it goes to weaken the claims of bias when it really exists.

    Some people have never heard of “the boy who cried wolf”!

  3. Fulvio Sammut

    Why all the double posts, double posts, double posts all of a sudden?

    Some-one has been feeding speed to the gerbil again.

  4. Not impressed? He was thrilled his program had what I think is the first “leak” from the budget this year!

  5. [Yes jen, but the ALP should be defending themselves, not needing to rely on Windsor.]

    Was being facetious Centre … just saying people, even the msm do actually listen to him.


  6. India is itching to have a go at Pakistan:

    [Terrorists find sanctuary in Pakistan: India
    Vishwa Mohan, TNN | May 2, 2011, 11.14am IST – India, Pak reactions on Osama death
    NEW DELHI: Referring to Al Qaida chief Osama Bin Laden’s killing in an US operation “deep inside Pakistan”, India on Monday said: “This fact underlines our concern that terrorists belonging to different organisations find sanctuary in Pakistan. We believe that the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attack, including the controllers and handlers of the terrorists who actually carried out the attack, continue to be sheltered in Pakistan”.]

  7. lets hope this is the last poll that goes any further back the other way.

    lets hope all up from here but there may be the overseas factor re julia
    and we still have the the pollution tax to put in and then may be the rivers thing.
    is the mining tax still a goer thats gone quite then thats all the nasties

    well perceived nasties.

  8. [Gusface
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink


    Ah, the memories of 6th grade continue…

  9. [Not impressed? He was thrilled his program had what I think is the first “leak” from the budget this year!]

    You’re on the ball tonight ML

  10. Ali is doing a good interview. Not a bimbo on external affairs or the economy. No pressure from Her ABC, I guess.

  11. [so its possible that we may go back wards and forward a bit]

    It could be all forward; all backwards; back and forth or no further change. I think back and forth is most likely.

  12. [Tom Hawkins

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Not impressed? He was thrilled his program had what I think is the first “leak” from the budget this year!

    You’re on the ball tonight ML

    He means a “Leak” like this?

    [Today I want to confirm with the Federal Treasurer and the Minister for School Education that the forthcoming budget will deliver on our promise to invest in rewarding great teachers around the country. ]

  13. bemused

    we do have a few new directors of late at the abc did you know that.
    and more coming as some finish this year.

    also we have two new boys at head office, i have seen a subtle shift of late in labors way of doing things.

  14. Yes, the centre/left were given a good hearing on Q&A tonight.

    There will be a big square up next week, you can be assured 😉

    jen :kiss:

  15. [He means a “Leak” like this?]

    I’m not going to split hairs over what constitutes an announcement vs a ‘leak’ but I am impressed with the way Crean shared that information. Very clever politics.

  16. Time to watch Fellowship of the ring on DVD, accompanied by a bottle of chardonnay. Cheers all. It’s been a momentous day. Thanks for your opinions and insights.

  17. Obama: “Osama is not a Muslim, he is a murderer of Muslims, i should know, i am a Muslim”. that will fix the Tea Party for sure.

  18. its pretty daming for the libs that people had to go to melbourne for treatment from

    we rencently have had similar in the north of the state which is a two hour drive,
    and if you could burnie to hobart and other areas some had to drive 5 hours to get to hobart.

    so it takes a labor gov. to put these services in while the libs did nothing

    how unusual

  19. [This is margin of error movements. I doubt anything has really changed since the last poll.]

    Its quite interesting how often the Newpoll moves opposite to its previous direction…

    Night all!

  20. [so it takes a labor gov. to put these services in while the libs did nothing]

    The Libs will now claim that they will provide an even better service than what Labor proposes but when something had to be done it is once again the Labor party that stumps up the funding.

  21. mysay – fancy us getting a little pleased about a 53-47 poll!!

    ModLib – Tony J was definitely toey tonight. Perhaps he wanted to spend more time on Osama bin Laden but Tony Windsor put a stop to that pretty quickly.

    It was a pretty good panel and I would like to have heard more from the Uni bloke and the woman on Crean’s right. Another 1/2 hr would have been terrific because the views of rural people are interesting to me – I’m one of them altho east of the ranges.
    Finns – I reckon it was that lovely photo of Charlie and Jules laughing together at Clarence House that did it. Definitely worth 2 polling points!!

    Jenauthor – have a great trip you lucky girl.

    Early start tomorrow so night all.

  22. Interesting link to the Indian article Finns.

    [India on US operation against Osama Bin Laden said: “We take note with grave concern that part of the statement in which President Obama said that the fire fight in which Osama Bin Laden was killed took place in Abbotabad deep inside Pakistan “. ]

    The US could i think get away with any flak about violating Pakistani territory because getting Bin Laden was such a big thing. Scary thing is if the Indians decide a precedent has been set and decide to do a job on their Mumbai suspects the same way. Don’t think the Pakistanis would tolerate that and they have a high proportion of their armed forces facing India.

    Looking forward to QUANDA over here tonight. Sounds like the puff adder gets nocked around a bit??

  23. That was a good QandA for progressives. Tony Windsor was brilliant as usual and announcing the budget announcement was gold by Crean.

  24. G’night BH. Agree that this is a Newspoll worth smiling about.

    Though afraid this will be it for a while.

  25. [Agree that this is a Newspoll worth smiling about.]

    Is this the missing Newspoll from last time — or was polling done this past weekend?

  26. TONY DELROY’S NIGHTLIFE with Dennis Shanahan
    DS: tony abbott very effective on carbon tax, has strong third-party endorsements, unions, steel industry, woodside, rio – emphasis is impact on jobs, job security, cost of living – not on climate change, ta succeeding on these points in the debate. gillard has lost debate
    polling labor bad stuck in low 30s and ta not all that popular but point is that jg not all that popular either
    TD says but coalition plan is rubbish, but DS says gillard is stuck as well.
    DS: and the negative towards govt scheme working in ta’s favour
    no mention of actual poll figures.
    Then discussion on strong Aus economy, but according to DS that is working against us as well.
    Feel like ringing Tony Delroy and asking why the actual poll figures where the govt has closed the gap by 4 points.

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