Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. VP,

    You make wine, no brewing involved!

    I’m a winemaker, but can’t vouch for the attractive part and what little is left of my hair was red!

  9. Sophie is a very poor performer when talking about specifics. She’s like Tone: has the atmospherics down pat, but no detail about what she’d do for her own electorate.

  11. Squiggle,

    Seeing as Obama said wtte in his speech today that “he ordered the klling or capture of Bin Laden” when he took over as President, what is your point.

  17. Simon says: Cancer clinic in Wagga, APPLAUSE. Now, what about other country centres? Did Sophie just say: “How much?”

  24. Blonde activist: ‘rural and regional people in a real divide.’

    Tell that to indigenous folk in remote Australia.

  25. [4771

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    I wish it was a live broadcast, I hate QandA being on a half-hour delayed telecast here!
    ]

    ABC24 has it live

  26. Dan Gulberry has me in stitches.

    [The technical term for a Mirabella out of water is beached @thirdborn314 Crean just blew Mirrabella out of the water
    ]

  30. I wonder how the general feel of negativity about incumbent governments will go from now on.

    Spontaneous celebrations on the street are not the norm in global politics at the moment.

  38. b_g,

    Briefly. Windsor wins by refuting stupid questions. Cream announces popular policy to applause. Others are also rans.

  50. Meanwhile a blonde fat lady has become a blonde skinny lady and is now wearing a sparkly blue sequin skin tight dress.

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