Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with both the Coalition (47 per cent) and Labor (35 per cent) steady on the primary vote and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. The survey also inquires about perceptions of the parties, the findings of which are summarised thus by Bernard Keane:

Seventy two per cent of voters believe “will promise to do anything to win votes” applies to Labor, up nine points since March last year, while 66% believe “divided” applies — a massive 30-point increase since last year. “Out of touch” has increased 13 points to 61%, and “moderate” has dropped 12 points to 51%. Even otherwise uncharacteristic descriptions such as “extreme” now garner significant support, up 12 points to 38%. And whereas even last year 52% of voters thought Labor had a good team of leaders, only 34% now feel that way.

For the Liberals, however, it’s all positive: a drop in the number of voters who think they’ll promise to do anything to win votes — down from 72% to 65%; a rise in “moderate” perceptions by five points to 55%; “out of touch” down to 54%, “divided” down from 66% to 49%. There was also a big improvement on “good team of leaders”, but off rather a low base, up nine points to 40%. The Liberals lead Labor on nearly every positive indicator and trail on nearly every negative indicator. Labor still has a one-point lead on “looks after the interests of working people.”

UPDATE: Full report here. It should also be noted that Newspoll published figures on support for a republic on Monday, finding it at its lowest ebb since the 1999 referendum: 41 per cent support (down four on January 2007, and ten points off a decade ago) and 39 per cent opposition (up three on 2007). There has been a seven-point rise in the uncommitted over 10 years, from 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Personally though, I’d like to see such results when a royal wedding isn’t due within a few weeks, before I reach any conclusions about declining support for a republic over the long term.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,875 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. [confessions
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 8:21 pm | Permalink
    Lots of tweets saying wtte US admin and POTUS are having us on.

    I’ve seen them! Apparently Obama captured Osama ages ago, and has been keeping him hidden just so he can produce his ‘death’ at a politically convenient moment.

    Unbelievable.]

    Not that I am a conspiracy theorist, but there is a sense this was all a bit too easy after a decade of searching don’t you think? Perhaps I’m just too cynical in my old age

  3. Tonight’s 4 corners is about Aurukun. The problems of our aborigines are getting a lot of airplay at the moment. Is it NAIDOC week or have I missed something?

  4. [I’ve seen them! Apparently Obama captured Osama ages ago, and has been keeping him hidden just so he can produce his ‘death’ at a politically convenient moment. ]
    Yeah, and he personally assassinated JFK shortly after he was born in Kenya.

  8. victoria:

    Apparently some hair-sculpted property magnate had the Prez under the pump over his birthplace. Or something.

    😉

  9. [a sense this was all a bit too easy after a decade of searching don’t you think? Perhaps I’m just too cynical in my old age]

    A bit of an oxymoron, don’t you think ModLib. Too easy after a decade?

  11. RT @FarhanazSultana: Osama should not have used his real address in the Playstation network

  14. The decade bit is the hard bit.

    The ‘too easy’ bit is shooting him in the head (meaning they got very close) given there were only a couple of other people in the house. Sounds a bit surprising to me.

    Just saying…

  16. vp,

    I believe Julia gave Obama a ten pack of Oz Movies.

    Who says we can’t influence the big players?

  18. ModLib:

    Perhaps deploying Defense and intel mob correctly in the first place would’ve avoided the decade-long futile hunt for OBL?

    Just a layperson’s observation.

  19. [I pray tonight for the souls of the departed who died that awful day, and all their family members and friends. I pray for the souls of those great Americans who resisted on Flight 93. I pray for all those who have died in the two wars that followed this atrocity. As a Christian, I am also required to pray for the soul of Osama bin Laden. Yes, even him. And, although we should remain vigilant against Jihadist terrorism, we should take the good advice of Winston Churchill:

    “In war, resolution; in defeat, defiance; in victory, magnanimity”]

    I’m not a christian, but find it hard to disagree with Andrew Sullivan here.

  20. Mungo is interesting on Faulkner and Tanner. I reckon Faulkner is a real back-room bloke. Tanner is quite happy to be in the public. They can both slay “journos”.

  21. [A piece by Mungo

    the downward spiral from substance to spin]

    Mungo and I must occupy the same mystical brainspace.

  25. I think Abbottabad is going to cost Tone a couple of pop points.

    I’ve just added Abbottabad to my dictionary; it’s not going away.

    What did OBL know about Oz politics? Did he have a sense of humour?

  27. [I think Abbottabad is going to cost Tone a couple of pop points.]

    especially since he constantly says the govt is bad. Now Abbottabad. Personal petards anyone?

  31. future crossword question.

    What does a terrorist hideaway got in common with a failed Liberal leader?

    Hint: ——bad

  35. [As an old Webdiary contributor, would you know if the David Davis that used to contribute from a Liberal perspective is the same David Davis now Victorian Liberal Health Minister?]

    Hey Gorgeous , i dont think so. i actually knew David Davis quite well. He is not a politician type. Havent seen him for years though.

  37. Vic

    Fiz is at Qanda – I should ask her to throw a shoe at Tony Jones!

    [Being a backseat bad girl up the back of the #qanda audience.
    Mobile Web • 2/05/11 20:50]

  38. Great comment from the guy who unwittingly blogged Osama’s death.

    [Eight hours and about 35 tweets later, the confirmation came: “Osama Bin Laden killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan,” Athar reported. “There goes the neighbourhood.”]

  39. sprocket_@4631

    future crossword question.

    What does a terrorist hideaway got in common with a failed Liberal leader?

    Hint: __bad

    Lets see …

    Abbottabad
    Turnbullabad
    Nelsonabad
    Hewsonabad
    Downerabad
    Howardabad
    Peacockabad

    Hmmm … could be any of them. Could you maybe narrow it down a little more for me?

  40. OVERINGTONC | 1 minute ago
    [Paul Murray on #PMLive just said: “It was American eyes he looked into, before he was shot in the head.” #]

  42. [Fiz is at Qanda – I should ask her to throw a shoe at Tony Jones!]

    Poor taste — the guy who threw it at the rodent died today.

  46. That Osama looks too young for me. Could be Osama Jr.

    Methinks Obama, not Osama, has just created a brand new industry. too many Grassy Knolls, such as:

    * Abbottabad
    * A resort, tourist town
    * Luxurious compound
    * Buried at sea
    * etc etc etc

  48. Channel Nine News featured David Davis tonight, upholding the fine run of incompetence and broken promises from the Ryan Government. His Health plan that was to be delivered within 150 days from taking office is late, and will now be delivered on Budget night, for minimal exposure

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