Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Owing to Good Friday, Morgan has got in with its weekly release a day early, this one being a face-to-face poll from the last two weekends of polling. The results are much the same as a fortnight ago: both Labor (from 36.5 per cent to 35 per cent) and the Coalition (48 per cent to 46 per cent) are down on the primary vote, with the Greens up from 9.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead is down from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 if preferences are allocated as per the previous election, which is my favoured method. However, Labor’s share of respondent-allocated preferences has weakened together with their position overall, as noted in my post from the Morgan poll a fortnight ago. Here the Coalition lead is 55-45, compared with 55.5-44.5 last time. Taking into account this series’ traditional favourability for Labor, this is another dire result for the government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,914 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. j6p

    I agree with scarpat. Your input is valued. But as PTMD has stated, it is important to consider things on a more fundamental level

  2. [He was not a ciminal at six years of age.
    He learned his trade in Australia. He is an Australian.
    He should not be deported on those grounds alone.]

    This might be where you could possibly use ‘the law is an ass’ and be justified.

    Technically — he breached the rules of immigration. The fact that he has been here for 40 years or 4 years makes no difference under the law. He also broke the law, in a big way. If it was someone who had been here 4 years, I am sure those sympathetic to this man’s cause would not be nearly so sympathetic.

    If the laws are wrong, change the laws. But there is a good reason why we do not let criminals immigrate.

  3. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    j6p

    I agree with scarpat. Your input is valued. But as PTMD has stated, it is important to consider things on a more fundamental level]

    That’s ok Victoria,you all trying to convince me and on occasions My views have been swayed here on pb.
    But you all must realize that no matter what you sat here at the moment the coal. are winning the battle out in middle aust. This is my opinion but again I say i probably talk to a broader cross section of aust. in a week then maybe many here do in a year just from traveling.

  4. j6p

    I definitely agree that the coalition is winning the battle. The polls reflect that. But for the long term benefit of this country I hope Labor win the war.

  5. The guy in villawood could not take out Australian Citizenship because he spent so much time in jail and failed to qualify on character grounds.

    But in 1968 as a British Citizen he could have been conscripted into the Australian Army, voted at elections and got a job in the public service.

    Once again, not black and white.

  6. [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    The guy in villawood could not take out Australian Citizenship because he spent so much time in jail and failed to qualify on character grounds.]
    If that is the case why are people arguing he should stay? He is clearly a undesirable alien.

  7. [This is my opinion but again I say i probably talk to a broader cross section of aust. in a week then maybe many here do in a year just from traveling.]

    joe

    I reckon you would know infinitely more about the state of roads in Australia, more about trucks and loading docks, more about food outlets, than I do.

    But we all meet people from all walks of life everyday.

  8. ruawake@206

    The guy in villawood could not take out Australian Citizenship because he spent so much time in jail and failed to qualify on character grounds.

    But in 1968 as a British Citizen he could have been conscripted into the Australian Army, voted at elections and got a job in the public service.

    Once again, not black and white.

    I saw reports during the week where (some ?) of his own children said he was a violent askhole.

    No brainer decision to *transport* him to the UK.

    Its got a delightful symmetry in fact.

    If you want the protection of the law, obey it.

  9. Joe6pack @ 208
    The man concerned had a mental illness that underlay a lot of his brushes with the law. He had not committed any serious offence for about 10 years and only came to notice because he took an overseas holiday.

    He has a mother and kids in Australia. He has nothing except one elderly relative in the UK. He spent his formative years here and essentially had his character formed here.

    If I was the UK govt I would not admit him. He is Australian in every meaningful way except one – he never formally took out citizenship.

  10. [ruawake
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    This is my opinion but again I say i probably talk to a broader cross section of aust. in a week then maybe many here do in a year just from traveling.

    joe

    I reckon you would know infinitely more about the state of roads in Australia, more about trucks and loading docks, more about food outlets, than I do.

    But we all meet people from all walks of life everyday.]

    Definatley and the views that i express here are mainly the views I hear from other truckers/loading people/truckstops./wharehoses/builders/mechanics.
    What I hear from my accountant is worse 🙂

  11. dave

    The point I was trying to make is that British Citizens were treated as equal to Australian Citizens in the past. The citizenship status was identical, because we were still tied to the “mother country”.

  12. From where I sit J6p is correct in his assertions on asylum seekers. The government is losing the Asylum seeker question and no matter how much logic most of you who post here use to defend your own argument, it is not what you think (unfortunately) it is what the Australian population at large think on this issue and if you think otherwise you are living in denial.

  13. [If I was the UK govt I would not admit him. He is Australian in every meaningful way except one – he never formally took out citizenship.]

    He is a uk citizen and a criminal. why are you keen for criminals like him to stay in aus.?
    Should J Finch not have been deported? More or less the same situation.

  14. @202 jenauthor

    [If the laws are wrong, change the laws. But there is a good reason why we do not let criminals immigrate.]

    jen,
    When the Hawke Government came into power in 1983, they passed an amendment to the Migration Act so as to essentially protect the residency of persons who’d been here more than 10 years. And the idea was that, look, these people had been formed by Australian society. We’re responsible for them, and so they need to have that right to remain. Under the Howard Government, the law was amended again. The length of a persons’ stay in Australia no longer mattered if they were deemed to have failed the character test.

    It’s about time Labor amended Howard’s amendment. The Migration Act was meant to keep undesirable people out, not exclude those already here for most of their lives.

  15. Ru – stiff.

    His *cause* was challenged at law all the way. And he lost on the basis of the laws of the land. And he had had many, *chances*.

    I feel much more compassion for many so called *boat people* than him.

  16. [If I was the UK govt I would not admit him. He is Australian in every meaningful way except one – he never formally took out citizenship.]

    So, if an AS can evade detection for a lot of years, we should accept them anyway — even if they are very undesirable?

  17. enjaybee

    The issue of asylum seekers is a worldwide problem. Italy has had 15,000 refugees land on their doorstop in the past few weeks. I doubt the Italians are entirely happy about it, Italy have their own problems with high unemployment and high govt debt. I have relatives in Italy. Cousins who have children now in their twenties. A few years ago, they all had work. Now no one has work. Imagine, parents and their grown children unable to find work. They see refugees as a burden they cannot manage.

  18. [The government is losing the Asylum seeker question and no matter how much logic most of you who post here use to defend your own argument]

    Labor will always lose an AS ‘debate’ against the Liberals. This is not news.

  19. [But we all meet people from all walks of life everyday.]

    You wouldn’t know it from the blinkers on here when its hitting the fan and there is hardly anyone willing to say there is anything wrong with the ALP 😉

    I have often wondered whether some here ever get out and speak to their fellow Australians!

    …you know, the ones some refer to as the “Bogans”

  20. what a class act is our Bronnie

    [FORMER PM John Howard was wrong in taking a policy on an emissions trading scheme (ETS) to the 2007 election, opposition frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop says.

    Ms Bishop said Mr Howard had erred in offering a market mechanism to price carbon as a way to lower emissions in the 2007 election.

    “Yes he was, in that particular policy,” she told Sky News today.

    Both parties has proposed emissions trading schemes as part of their platforms in the election that elected the Kevin Rudd-led Labor party to government.

    Ms Bishop said she did not support the coalition’s 2007 election promise for an ETS but was in favour of the opposition’s direct action policy at last year’s election.

    “I support the policy that Tony Abbott is putting forward because it is a good thing to do anyway,” she said.

    “It is a sensible thing to do.”

    Ms Bishop said the contribution of carbon dioxide emissions to global warming was a moot point.

    “It’s not something that I believe is the case,” she said.

    She also questioned humans’ contribution to the warming of the planet.

    “I don’t buy that man is the sole cause of this problem,” she said.

    “I believe the climate changes continually, and if we have got to do something about it we have got to learn to adapt.”

    Asked if she was convinced about man’s contribution to global warming, Ms Bishop replied:

    “No, I’m not … I said there could be a contribution from mankind.

    “I’m perfectly happy to accept that.”

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/howard-wrong-taking-ets-to-2007-election/story-e6frfku0-1226043112982#ixzz1K9u54VUe%5D

  21. Joe6pack 208
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
    [As an aside, I must apologise for the appalling way I treated you a few weeks ago.

    Don’t sweat it I didn’t]
    Good, well, then I do apologise.

  22. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    j6p

    My OH has a bet on St Kilda winning by more than 15 points.]

    How much does he want to bet 🙂

  23. jenauthor
    re my post to you at 217
    Lest I be accused of plagiarism by some alert poster here, I should have apostrophied all of the comment above – I cut and pasted it from an AM interview. Couldn’t find the link when I went to post and can’t be bothered looking for it again.

  24. [Labor will always lose an AS ‘debate’ against the Liberals. This is not news.]

    Of course this is not news but it is one of the reasons why labour is trailing so badly in the polls at the moment.

  25. Off to bed with a good book!

    Nite all. Tomorrow, at least, should see the RAbbott safely tucked away in some church not making mischief for the PM. I say ‘should’ because where there is a Rabbott, there is a mischief-making little rodent.

  26. enjaybee

    I am sure it is not helping. But I think the carbon tax debate is really hurting Labor.
    Ultimatey it is always about the hip pocket more than anything else.

  27. jenauthor

    Good night.

    Despite the Easter break, the Rabbott will be making mischief whilst the cat is away. I am always ill at ease when the PM is out of the country.

  28. [Ultimatey it is always about the hip pocket more than anything else.]

    If true — it should mean that once the compensation package is articulated, the momentum will flow back to Labor!

    G’night!

  29. [Of course this is not news]

    Then why the attitude of “no matter how much logic most of you who post here use to defend your own argument”?

    People here are far more aware than you give them credit for.

  30. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    j6p

    Is this in Qld?]
    No nationally so far. I hate easter on the roads and make sure all my trucks are off the road by wed. . If you can stay off the roads do so

  31. [SAMANTHAMAIDEN | 1 minute ago
    Stephen Cunnane still looks very rock on The Drum despite attempts to Prep Him Up. Adorable.]

    [SAMANTHAMAIDEN | 1 minute ago
    When will Cunnane present Lateline in a You Am I Tshirt though ?? This is big question.]

    Australia discovers a capable and skilled journalist, and the News ltd incompetents try to discredit him. Also, love the way Maiden can’t get his name right.

    Jealousy is a curse.

  32. Gees if a Tony Abbott led Coalition is ahead 53-47 on a Face-to-Face Morgan Poll things are not looking good for Gillard.

    The only thing in her favour is she doesnt have another election for 2 and a bit years. But she doesnt look like turning around the negative perception of her government.

    I only wish the Tories would put in a more acceptable leader since they look likely of ending Labor in 2013.

  33. [I only wish the Tories would put in a more acceptable leader since they look likely of ending Labor in 2013.]

    Howdy Glen!

    Agree

    🙂

  34. j6p

    I agree with you about staying off the roads. Although my son has gone to Yarrawonga tonight. He has now arrived safely, but I am a nervous wreck back here in Melbourne. Of course, when he leaves to come back home, I will be a stress head again. Life is just one big anxious existence

  35. As it.s all nice this evening I see katie has now become catherine. Poor girl is gonna get hounded mercilessly despite what the tabloids said after Diane got killed

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