UPDATE: Results in: Greens 20, Coalition (Nationals) 21, Hanson 22. Final upper house result: Coalition 11, Labor 5, Greens 3, Christian Democratic 1, Shooters and Fishers 1.
Tuesday, April 12. I’ve allowed this post to go dormant since a week after the election, since when the last lower house seat of Balmain was decided in the Greens’ favour. The big news now is that the button will be pushed on the Legislative Council count this morning, and that Pauline Hanson’s chances have firmed considerably after she moved ahead of not only the third Green, but also the eleventh Coalition candidate. This leaves these three candidates battling for the last two places. The general expectation was that Labor preferences would put the Greens ahead of Hanson, but there now seems an even money chance that she will win a seat all the same. Antony Green explains all. I’ve changed the time stamp on this post to move it to the top of the page, to allow easier access for anyone who wants to comment on the events as they unfold.
Thursday. The NSWEC hasn’t updated the figures, but the ABC results and various news reports tell us absent votes have boosted the Greens to a 218 vote lead over Labor, which Verity Firth will now have to rein in on independent and minor party preferences. Another coat of paint has been removed from Nathan Rees’ lead in Toongabbie, but his lead may be enough.
Wednesday. Labor’s lead has narrowed in Toongabbie, East Hills continues to drift away from them and Balmain remains as much of a wild card as it always was. However, Noreen Hay now looks safe in Wollongong. Nothing today from Oatley.
Tuesday. No further progress in East Hills or Balmain, but Oatley has slipped from Labor’s grasp in today’s counting and the margin in Wollongong has been cut still finer. The latter will come down to absent votes, none of which have been added yet – a clear trend one way or the other would decide the result.
Monday. Late counting has seen any hope for Labor go in Monaro and almost certainly Swansea as well, and things are souring for them in Wollongong as well. East Hills and Oatley are still too close to call, and Balmain remains a wild card. The numbers are thus Coalition 67, Labor 19 and independents three with four in doubt, one of which could go to the Greens. The other turn-up today is that Legislative Council counting has put Pauline Hanson on to the ABC computer’s projection to win the final seat. Antony Green has written a post on why he thinks this unlikely but not impossible – more on this at the bottom of the page.
Sunday. Excluding seats where the ABC computer has the margin at less than 2 per cent, the numbers currently stand at Coalition 64 (Liberal 47 and Nationals 17), Labor 18 and three independents. That leaves eight seats “in doubt”, although in some cases not really. These will be dealt with in turn below. The tables show the two-candidate preferred counts using the most complete figures available, swings for each type of vote matched against the equivalent result from 2007, the number of exhausted votes, the total number of formal votes counted and – to give some sense of how many votes there might be outstanding for a given vote type – the total number of such votes from 2007.
The NSWEC publishes “election night” and “post-election night” figures of the polling booth results, with the latter being the re-checks. In some cases the latter are not fully completed, and it is these partly complete figures which show on the electorate summary pages on the NSWEC site (although the results table on the index page uses the election night figures). Where this is the case, I have used the complete election night figures rather than the incomplete post-election night ones.
EAST HILLS (Margin: 14.1%)
Wednesday. Continues to drift away from Labor, with 3742 absent votes increasing the Liberal lead from 207 to 303.
Sunday. The Liberals led by two whole votes on polling booth figures, but they have gained ground today with 1860 pre-poll votes breaking 954-741 their way.
| LABOR | LIBERAL | Swing | Exhaust | Formal | 2007 | |||
| Ordinary | 15,315 | 50.0% | 15,318 | 50.0% | -14.0% | 2,970 | 33,603 | 34,578 |
| Absent | 1,483 | 48.4% | 1,579 | 51.6% | -19.3% | 541 | 3,603 | 2,400 |
| Postal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,260 | |||
| Pre-Poll | 741 | 43.7% | 954 | 56.3% | -17.5% | 165 | 1,860 | 1,916 |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | |||
| TOTAL | 17,539 | 49.6% | 17,851 | 50.4% | -14.6% | 3,676 | 0 | 188 |
| Projection | 49.5% | 50.5% | -14.6% | |||||
OATLEY (Margin: 14.4%)
Tuesday. Labor’s gain on pre-polls has been pretty much reversed by the addition of 3000 postals which have added 232 to the Liberal margin, now 321.
Sunday. The Liberal candidate had a 332 vote lead on polling booth votes, but Labor member Kevin Greene has chased down 243 with the addition of 3055 pre-polls.
| LABOR | LIBERAL | Swing | Exhaust | Formal | 2007 | |||
| Ordinary | 15,397 | 49.5% | 15,727 | 50.5% | -14.7% | 2,218 | 33,342 | 33,965 |
| Absent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,947 | |||
| Postal | 1,333 | 45.9% | 1,568 | 54.1% | -17.8% | 168 | 3,069 | 3,023 |
| Pre-Poll | 1,538 | 54.3% | 1,294 | 45.7% | -11.7% | 220 | 3,052 | 2,348 |
| Other | 89 | 50.0% | 89 | 50.0% | -6.9% | 16 | 99 | 125 |
| TOTAL | 18,357 | 49.6% | 18,678 | 50.4% | -14.7% | 2,622 | 99 | 125 |
| Projection | 49.5% | 50.5% | -14.8% | |||||
SWANSEA (Margin: 10.8%)
Wednesday. Another 400 postal votes added, breaking 194 to 160 and increasing the very secure Liberal lead to 825.
Tuesday. Labor has picked up 43 votes from 3462 postals, which have gone 1544-1501, but it’s too little too late.
Sunday. Labor’s Robert Coombs trailed by 491 votes on the polling booths, and has gone a further 318 votes backwards with the addition of 1883 pre-polls and 43 institution votes.
| LABOR | LIBERAL | Swing | Exhaust | Formal | 2007 | |||
| Ordinary | 14,556 | 49.1% | 15,064 | 50.9% | -11.8% | 5,528 | 35,148 | 35,360 |
| Absent | 377 | 49.5% | 385 | 50.5% | -8.7% | 155 | 917 | 3,078 |
| Postal | 1,704 | 50.1% | 1,695 | 49.9% | -15.0% | 463 | 3,862 | 3,209 |
| Pre-Poll | 660 | 40.5% | 968 | 59.5% | -16.7% | 255 | 1,883 | 1,727 |
| Other | 12 | 35.3% | 22 | 64.7% | -32.0% | 9 | 43 | 120 |
| TOTAL | 17,309 | 48.8% | 18,134 | 51.2% | -12.1% | 6,410 | 43 | 120 |
| Projection | 48.6% | 51.4% | -12.3% | |||||
WOLLONGONG (Labor vs Independent)
Wednesday. Absent votes have indeed behaved different to pre-polls and postals, favouring Labor 615-445. This has increased Noreen Hay’s lead to 442, enough for her to claim victory.
Tuesday. Another 1406 postals have maintained the trend of the first 1783 in shaving 111 off the Labor lead, which is now down to 263. However, with pre-polls presumably done with and the addition of postal votes down to a trickle, most outstanding votes are absents, and these may well behave very differently.
Monday. The two-candidate count between Labor’s Noreen Hay and independent challenger Gordon Bradbery made Hay appear home and hosed, with a margin of 2.5 per cent off the polling booth votes. However, subsequent counting has gone disastrously for her: pre-polls have favoured Bradbery by a remarkable 2173-1300, and he has further gained 766-680 on postals. This has whittled Hay’s lead down to 389, with the trend running heavily against her.
| LABOR | INDEPENDENT | Exhaust | Formal | 2007 | |||
| Ordinary | 13,938 | 52.5% | 12,605 | 47.5% | 818 | 33,455 | 34,723 |
| Absent | 615 | 58.0% | 445 | 42.0% | 0 | 0 | 3,648 |
| Postal | 1,201 | 46.3% | 1,393 | 53.7% | 92 | 3,189 | 2,844 |
| Pre-Poll | 1,300 | 37.4% | 2,173 | 62.6% | 90 | 4,359 | 1,644 |
| Other | 27 | 54.0% | 23 | 46.0% | 0 | 0 | 622 |
| TOTAL | 17,081 | 50.7% | 16,639 | 49.3% | 1,000 | 0 | 622 |
MONARO (Margin: 6.3%)
Monday. With 674 pre-polls breaking 3578-2890 the Nationals’ way, John Barilaro now holds an unassailable of 1275.
Sunday. The Nationals have a 1 per cent lead which it would take something remarkable to undo. The addition of 4300 pre-polls haven’t provided it, going 2108 to 1957 the way of Nationals candidate John Barilaro, who now leads Labor member Steve Whan by 754 votes.
BALMAIN (Margin: 3.8% versus Greens)
Thursday. The Greens have reportedly moved to a 203 vote lead over Labor on the primary vote, but the NSWEC figures haven’t been updated. The ABC figure has the lead at 218. Their challenge now is to keep that lead with the distribution of independent and minor party preferences, including those of Maire Sheehan, a council rival of Greens candidate Jamie Parker who polled 1373 votes.
Wednesday. About 4300 more votes have been added, mostly postals, and they have very much reflected the overall trend in slightly favouring the Liberal candidate (1468 votes) with Labor (1303) just shading the Greens (1274) for second place. However, this does not reflect the trend of 2007 when Labor did much better on postals than on ordinary votes (44.3% compared with 39.6%), and the Greens much worse (24.1% compared with 29.5%). The two main types of vote yet to be added, pre-polls and absents, were much stronger for the Greens. However, any lead the Greens open with the addition of these votes will have to be defended against a probable flow of independent preferences to Labor. In any event, Labor are currently ahead of the Greens by 139 votes, up from 111.
Sunday. The Liberals hold a narrow lead on the primary vote, with Labor and the Greens mixing it on 30.4 per cent and 30.0 per cent respectively. Given the likelihood the Liberals will stay in front, the NSWEC’s Labor-versus-Greens count is of little use. What matters is who out of Labor and the Greens finishes second, as I would assume that whichever of the two makes it to second will then overtake the Liberals on the other’s preferences. The precedent of 2007, when post-election night counting saw Labor’s vote fall 0.3 per cent and the Greens hold steady, suggests there won’t be much in it.
TOONGABBIE
Thursday. Pre-polls and “enrolment new votes” have gone 546-521 in favour of the Liberals, and Nathan Rees’s lead is now down to 194.
Wednesday. Absents and pre-polls have strongly favoured the Liberals with Nathan Rees holding his ground on postals; taken together, the Labor lead is down to 285.
Sunday Nathan Rees led by 409 with the counting of polling booth votes, but he’s down 16 with the addition of 945 pre-polls and institution votes.
Newcastle. With the Liberals 1.8 per cent in front, I won’t be making the effort to follow this one.
LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
Monday. It is clear enough that the Coalition will win 11 of the 21 new seats, Labor five, the Greens two, and the Christian Democratic Party and Shooters and Fishers one apiece. The final seat is a tussle between Labor, the Greens and, improbably, Pauline Hanson. As of today the ABC computer projection has Hanson in front, but this projection assumes no preferences, which is a very unsafe assumption where Labor and Greens candidates are involved. The most likely result is that whoever out of Labor and the Greens is excluded will deliver the seats to the other on preferences – especially if it’s Labor which is excluded, given their how-to-vote card directed preferences to the Greens. However, as Antony Green notes, Pauline Hanson does uniquely well among minor candidates in polling strongly on the below-the-line votes that remain to be counted, so there is some chance she could get up thanks to exhausting Greens votes if Labor stays ahead of them.i>
[Would there be grounds for Bradbery to dispute the return if Hay won? Given there were 800 fake HTVs and the preferences are vital, the outcome could very much haved turned on a fraud.]
JJ
In a “Mercury” article in print edition today, it was explained that the electorate winner will be declared and allowed to enter Parliament. However, a challenge due to alleged HTV fraud would need to go not to the EC, but through the courts. This would be a lengthy and expensive process. Rev. Bradbery would need his property developer mates to cough up the coin for the challenge.
The Liberals obviously could mount the challenge, but there’s currently a war of words going on in the media between Bradbery’s and Liberal candidate Biclavs’ supporters because she refused to preference Bradbery (who took umbrage despite refusing to swap preferences with anyone due to his purity of heart). The fact that the Greens tithed their only preference to “The People’s Padre” has given Biclavs’ people the ammunition to claim that Bradbery’s values and priorities are closer to the Greens, thus justifying Libs not giving 2nd preference him.
My take is that Libs would rather a rotting, stinking albatross like Hay wrapped around the neck of the next Labor leader, rather than a novice who might just break some crockery in the Government’s China Shop—strictly by accident, of course, since he doesn’t have a clue how Parliament functions.
thank you atticus. at least you have been a faithful contribution from an illawarra perspective – however you seem too much above the fray, in constant disdain for bradbery. do you really think he is any less experienced in public life than a host of elected members? on the other hand, you seemed to know very little about him in earlier mail – i suspect you might be from Hay’s camp?
look, i am actually interested in the role of progressive ‘true’ religion in politics, at least as a change from the hegemony of right wingers who misrepresent their own faith and claim, without apology, to also represent all folk with interest in christian matters. pox on the them – esp their local liberal incarnation
am not sure atticus that there is a war of words between bradbery and liberal supporters at all … i have followed mercury threads and they seem to be a general outrage from all quarters at the liberals’ free kick to hay … this is not something that will be easily forgotten regardless of the outcome of the election. i like your albatross image a lot …
geoffrey,
I did NOT vote for Noreen Hay. She was the only Gong candidate who failed to support O’Farrell’s promise to hold new City Council elections here and in Shellharbour. This was my #1, #2, # 3 etc. issue. If Biclavs and Hay were the only two on the ballot, I would have voted for a Lib for the first time ever and not had a pang of guilt! Now that we know for certain Council elections will be held on Sept. 2nd, it doesn’t matter to me who wins Wollongong.
As William has written, the role of Indies in a Lower House where the government holds a huge majority is going to be negligible. Having read and listened to Bradbery’s comments (especially at the community forum) during this campaign, it is crystal clear he is a well-meaning bloke who will spend 4 years talking to himself because no one in the Parliament will care a jot what he thinks.
I have no interest in the religious preferences of candidates other than the obvious Fred Nile mob. As an example, the Labor Party will always vote for government funding of private schools because of its significant number of Catholic pollies. It goes against Labor’s core principles, but only a fool would waste a second of their time getting lathered up about it.
geoffrey,
Perhaps we’ve read different threads as there’s been a new one with each update. Here’s one siding with Biclavs
[Why should a conservative party sell out it’s values. If the Greens who were more aligned with Bradberry on the issues, had given ALL their preferences instead of one in three. It was an uphill battle to unseat a candidate with a 25.3 margin. Regardless of the outcome, her cushion is gone. Wollongong has truly become the marginal seat, we all wanted.]
Some Bradbery supporters have accused Biclavs not preferencing Bradbery due to her supposedly being a conservative Christian. I’d try to find an example for you, but it is already well past my bedtime.
I appreciate the cogent comments you have made on this thread. Cheers, mate!
Noreen getting over the line would be of no value to the Labor Party, even if Bradbury would be a dud Independent MP and a “one-termer”.
With Mark Coure looking to defeat Kevin Greene in Oatley I hope voters understand the true ramifications of their actions.
http://www.theleader.com.au/news/local/news/politics/state-election-dragons-coach-is-a-greene-fan/2117558.aspx
Wayne Bennett votes Labor and supports Kevin Greene. Kevin has done more than anyone for the St George Dragons, giving it much needed funding. .
If it takes another 30 years for the Dragons to win a premiership you know who to blame…
definitely not a close result but one of interest – can anybody explain why the ALP did so spectacularly badly in Bathurst? Even in lithgow they could barely manage 35% of the 2pp. Was this a carbon tax issue, electricity privatisation?
on the number of new women MPs – it would be good if there more coalition women – but on the other hand are Noreen Hay and Cherie burton particularly good examples of the ALP affirmative action policies – in Wollongong in particular was there a better man?
Blackburnpseph at 158
I think it was a perfect storm of several factors.
– a huge backlash against the former member Gerard Martin who was seen as a time serving Labor hack. A bit strange if you ask me, why swing now when the former member is gone.
– The seat is based on Bathurst and Lithgow. Bathurst is twice the size of Lithgow. Gerard Martin was from Lithgow, the ALP candidate was from Hartley (essentially Lithgow). The Nat candidate is from Bathurst and is the mayor of Bathurst.
– Bathurst (the town not the electorate) feels neglected and the stuffups with the building of the new hospital will not have lessened this.
– the carbon tax would have hit hard in the Lithgow (coal mining) end of the electorate.
Good point KB at 150. Hard to see any issue which will send CD and FS in opposite directions. Maybe whether you should be allowed to fish or shoot on Sundays? Harder to think of a LNP policy which will wedge them. The real contest in the next four years will be between Libs and Nats in the party room.
I Know there is some people in here (who do not live in NSW) who thinks the ALP did a lot of infrastructure in the west of NSW.
This is what Richo said
If you try to think of any infrastructure built by the government for Sydney’s west you will fail. I can only come up with the duplication of the Iron Cove Bridge which is only 5km west of the city (not 35) and it would seem no one wanted it anyway.
Carr promised railways every Monday only to cancel them by the Friday after an election. No big new roads were built in western Sydney with government money. The mob will always work you out and they sure as hell worked this Labor mob out.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/nsw-labor-has-lost-its-base-and-the-plot/story-e6frgd0x-1226030321335
I don’t claim any local knowledge about Bathurst, but the electoral evidence suggests that Martin was very popular, and that it was his departure, not his unpopularity, which caused (part of) the swing this time. When he took over as Labor candidate from Mick Clough in 1999, he got a 17% swing towards him, and he held his majority virtually intact in 2003 and 2007. If he was seen as a time-serving Labor hack (and what does that actually mean, anyway?), why didn’t this sentiment show up in 2007? Country seats are seldom shy about kicking out MPs they don’t like any more.
I am not surprised Richo said that – after all, like Dovif, he has never lived in the west of Sydney. I suspect both would get a nose bleed if they went past Stanmore.
Just quickly and off the top of my head:
Transport:
Increased size of M4
M2 and Lane Cove Tunnel
Completed with C’wealth the M7
Epping to Chatswood line
Bus T way network
Increased service on Western line
Health:
Upgrade to Teaching Hospital for Nepean, Liverpool and Campbelltown
I haven’t lived there for 15 years and I am sure other PBs could add more.
Thought ETS might be issue in Bathurst but Labor held Cessnock easily Nats had 3.4% margin on federal figures when you add state swing on this it accounts for a lot + popular Nat. But maybe Bathurst and Broken Hill going way of the old catholic Labor rural areas back in the 1980s.
OC
do you mean west or north/ north west
apart from M4, they are mostly to the West
As for increase services, actually the ALP decreased services to the west in 2007
I don’t think the swing anywhere in NSW had anything to do with the carbon tax or any other federal issue. It was about getting rid of a deeply unpopular state government.
Labor’s demographic base west of the Divide has been steadily declining for decades, as the old pillars of the Labor vote (miners, shearers, teachers, railways workers, PMG workers) decline or disappear. At the 1943 federal election, Labor won every seat in regional NSW except Cowper, Richmond and New England. Now we hold Eden-Monaro, Richmond and Page. There’s nothing mysterious about this, it’s just demography. The same thing is happening at state level. In 1941 Labor won most seats west of the Divide, such as Namoi, Orange, Wagga and Young. In 1981 Neville Wran won Albury, Murrumbidgee and Armidale. Now that vote has gone and won’t come back. (Labor has been compensated for that a swathe of new seats in Sydney.) Even old Labor strongholds like Broken Hill and Lithgow are fading. This is not because of anything Labor has done or has failed to do, it’s just the changing demography of regional Australia and the changing class base of the parties.
SEC five minutes ago has wollongong update:
HAY Noreen+ ALP+ 15,365 48.7
BRADBERY Gordon IND 16,166 51.3
But these nos seem lower than yesterday?
Geoffrey,
May have been an erroneous figure, both SEC and ABC now have Labor ahead 50.4-49.6 (16439-16171)
@164
The problem though is that alot of these Western Sydney projects were either done half-arsed or were controversial.
E.g. widening the M4 does little when the freeway still stops dead in Strathfield. Labor regurgitated the “M4 East” plan over and over but nothing ever happened.
Epping-Chatswood should have been Epping-Parra but was stopped half way, and went well over time and budget, and wasn’t there then some stupidity where the tunnel could only take certain types of older trains because new ones couldn’t handle the gradients?
Lane Cove Tunnel was not particular popular and had problems of its own with construction accidents, “excessive” tolls, etc.
That’s not counting things like NW rail which were proposed, dumped, rehashed, re-dumped, over and over.
Just on Wollongong, I’d like to gauge the opinion of political minds more advanced than my own.
Hay led by 1300 votes (52.5-47.5) based on normal votes from Saturday. But Bradberry is gaining in the postal votes (up by 190), and pre-polls (up by 870)! So the total lead for Hay is 263.
As William notes, there are probably only serious numbers of absentee votes to go. I know Gordon has at least 1 vote in that pile, thanks to my sister.
Is there any evidence to support any of the following navel gazing?
Reason for absentee voting #1: you work/play golf/holiday outside the electorate on Saturday. I think these are likely to be the richer/educated demographic, not the staunch Labor voters from Warrawong/Cringila/Port Kembla that were all over the Mercury yesterday.
Reason for absentee voting #2: You roll down the road to your nearest school and realise you have stumbled across the border into Keira or Shellharbour. These are likely to be the people near the edge of the electorate. If you look at the electorate map, I reckon they are more likely to be around Figtree/Wollongong/Fairy Meadow (areas where Bradberry did well) than around Port/Cringila.
Any sense in that?
“William Bowe
Posted Monday, March 28, 2011 at 7:02 am
Can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of late counting. For discussion of the NSW election more generally, please refer to the earlier thread.”
DaveM, I have never checked this, but one theory I have heard is that absentee votes are more likely to come from people who have to work on Saturdays, who are more likely to be Labor voters, while postal votes are more likely to come from people who have gone away on a holiday, who are more likely to be Liberal voters.
Latest figures from Toongabbie show a tightening with Rees now 285 ahead.
Hay now 400+ ahead in Wollongong.
ftp://ftp.elections.nsw.gov.au/Results/VEMADB1.PRD2008/SG1101/EML/LA/510/CURRENT/nsw-eml-510-count-v5-SG1101-Toongabbie.xml
ftp://ftp.elections.nsw.gov.au/Results/VEMADB1.PRD2008/SG1101/EML/LA/510/CURRENT/nsw-eml-510-count-v5-SG1101-Wollongong.xml
Yep, the ABC is now calling Wollongong a Labor retain!
sorry if this has been answered before but in regards to wollongong, why didnt the libs preference the ind candidate?
ABC saying Toongabbie is a definite Labor retain, so perhaps even though Rees’s lead has decreased, there’s not much left to count?
Not sure at all about Balmain, but today’s SMH said that Verity’s position there has improved.
Finally!
Noreen Hay’s 2PP went back up to 50.7% today after falling slightly the past two days. It appears she’ll win by 400 odd (no pun intended!) votes. “The Mercury” will be crestfallen and infuriated that they didn’t pull off one of their strongest propaganda capers, second only to their incessant barracking for Lib. Federal MP for Gilmore, Joanna Gash, during the past decade.
And please, I am not saying that Gordon Bradbery was unworthy of Parliament. He was well-meaning, intelligent and advocated that new Gong City Council elections be held a year early. I’d be expressing precisely the same beef with “The Mercury” if they’d published blatantly biased treatment in favour of a candidate I’ve strongly supported such as Jenny George or Sharon Bird.
If this was their main competitor, Murdoch’s “Daily Telegraph”, I’d just shrug my shoulders and ignore it. But for a Fairfax newspaper to stoop to egregious spin is unacceptable, and I’ll keep writing them polite comments and letters (which they always refuse to publish) in protest.
Something to watch out for in Balmain. While the initial count always favours the large parties (Postals), the Greens tend to gain a lot more in pre-polls and absentees.
From “Mercury” website 30 Mar, 2011 04:39 PM
[Incumbent MP Noreen Hay is poised to declare victory in the seat of Wollongong.
She presently leads independent Gordon Bradbery by 442 votes as counting continues this afternoon.
“I’m getting very close [to declaring victory],’’ she told the Mercury.
‘‘They are currently counting the next batch of absentees and when I get the result I’ll make a decision.”
Mr Bradbery said he would not concede defeat until counting was complete.]
Atticus: Noreen Hay frankly has a stench about her – I’d prefer she’d lost and somebody like David Borger or Steve Whan had retained his or her seat instead.
On the up side for the Illawarra, the new MP for Keira is the sort of young bloke with some expertise that NSW Labor requires for its rebuilding.
Roadrunner @176
Lib candidate Biclavs claimed that Bradbery’s values and priorities were closer to The Greens, and indeed the only candidate given Green preferences was Bradbery. Biclavs also stated that since Bradbery refused to swap preferences with any other candidate, Libs weren’t going to give him a free kick like The Greens did.
Otoh, some Bradbery supporters alleged the real reason was that Biclavs is a conservative Christian and Bradbery a progressive one.
I’ve no idea who, if anyone, is telling porkies, but my take is that it suits the Libs better during a landslide for the Gong to have a zero-credibility Labor MP rather than a loose cannon Indie whose every word is gospel (pun intended!) to “The Mercury”.
evan14,
Obviously, we are in 100% agreement about Hay. In previous post, I’ve described her as a rotting, stinking albatross around the neck of next Labor leader.
As you must have greater knowledge of Ryan Park than I, an explanation of your high opinion of his potential would be greatly appreciated. Being a Dept. of Transport senior manager does not, on the face of it, inspire me with confidence.
All the same, I’m relieved that the polls showing Park would lose to Dorahy were overcome by the significant respect Campbell retains in his electorate during David’s high profile campaigning for Park throughout the past month.
atticus
if you offer informed comments you should know the issue is that local liberal and candidate influenced by right wing christianity and its moral crusade that is not uncommon with many state members – however in this case moral crusade does not extend to corruption, which is most strange.
abc site says thousands of vote uncounted as at 4.30 – why all excitement?
hay has no shame – what policy on reform of local problems has she ever advocated? she gloats victory after the shameless HTV exercise. the old labor rules in wollongong
geoffry,
Again, thanks for your insights, which are news to me.
All the best!
abc says about 6000 votes still uncounted in wollongong
(12%)
unless sites are slow those are enough votes to make current 400 differences swing
in any case this story is unending
actually getting a bit tired of wollongong – what confidence in council election?
might move
Is there a typo on the ABC site? It currently has:
ALP 19 “likely 20”
Coal 68 “likely 70”
Oth 3
In doubt 3
The 3 in doubt are:
Balmain (ALP ahead)
Toongabbie (ALP retain)
Oatley (Lib gain)
Unless I am adding up incorrectly (possible) thats 21-69-3 isn’t it????
….BTW the reason for being pedantic is a side bet I have under/over 20 seats which I dont want to lose!!!!
(its with someone who used to post here as it turns out)
ML
Maybe the Balmain tricontest befuddles the computer although Firth’s two party lead is there. Speaking of which has anyone seen Balmain figures today? Most other seats have been updated today but not it. Does no update mean that only absentees are to be counted?
If it is ALP 20, ML, is it a split pot? If you want < 20 you should argue that Hay's win is really a win for Lib/Nat!
[If it is ALP 20, ML, is it a split pot? If you want < 20 you should argue that Hay's win is really a win for Lib/Nat!]
Its actually a friendly bet so no money changing hands but I have to say I was expecting it to be well below 20 (my final prediction being 16 and some polls being 13). He predicted 25 so we decided on above/below 20. Would be a laugh if thats where it ended given I have been predicting 20seats for weeks (?months) and only changed based on the flood of late polling!!! Never trust Greens to meet expectations…
Also, where are people getting the figures on votes left to count? I cant see this on ABC website.
Balmain must be ALP surely (Verity needs only a few hundred of the 30% green vote, or vice versa). Wollongong should be in the seats in doubt list but isnt for some reason.
ML
ftp://ftp.elections.nsw.gov.au/Results/VEMADB1.PRD2008/SG1101/EML/LA/510/CURRENT/
for the die hard
I found that reference in the tranquility of Ben Raue’s tallyroom site
Yikes! You guys really are the “insiders” aren’t you???
I can’t open these links (perhaps as on mac???)- any chance you can tell me how many votes left in Toongabbie, Oatley and Wollongong pretty please?
Balmain is too hard!
It’s over in the Gong.
From The Mercury website this evening
[Noreen Hay declares victory in Wollongong
BY NICOLE HASHAM
30 Mar, 2011 06:49 PM
Incumbent Labor MP Noreen hay has declared victory in the seat of Wollongong after an agonising five days of counting.
Ms Hay led independent Gordon Bradbery by 650 votes late yesterday, with around 200 votes left to be tallied.
‘‘I want to take this opportunity to express my sincere gratitude to the people of Wollongong for showing confidence in returning me to to State Parliament as their representative,’’ she told the Mercury.
‘‘The electorate has certainly sent a message to the Labor Party in this election and I have heard that message, but the people of Wollongong have kept faith with the Australian Labor Party.’’
Ms Hay is expected to suffer a final swing of around 24 per cent – far greater than the statewide 16.5 per cent swing against Labor.
Ms Hay insisted she still had a strong mandate to represent the city.
‘‘That was the point I made [throughout the campaign]. If O’Farrell took government with a large majority we needed someone who knows the process and will do what’s necessary to protect the area,’’ she said.]
ML cannot help on votes to come.
We need a Balmain scrutineer. Here they are on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvuhRUZpS9Q
Hi All,
Have been watching the counting for the last LC seat with trepidation, with Pauline still edging up over the Greens. Antony Green keeps saying that if Labor is excluded before the Greens, there should be enough Labor preferences going to the Greens for them to take the last seat.
Does anybody know how the RATL votes are counted? For example, if there are 100,000 RATL votes for Labor, does each vote’s preferences get distributed or are only a portion of the votes distributed?
the abc website says as at 4pm today
Roll: 50,519
Votes Counted: 87.4%
i have obviously missed or misread something …
last post re wollongong. sorry
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/guide/wolg.htm
[Wollongong(Key Seat)
Electorate Map
[PDF Format]
Illawarra
Last Updated: Wed, 30 Mar 2011 15:56:50
Roll: 50,519
Votes Counted: 87.4%
Booths Counted Primary Vote: 29/29
Booths Counted 2CP: 29/29]
Geoffrey: votes counted percentage are against the total roll not the total votes cast aren’t they? There are usually 5-10% of people who don’t vote so the final tally of actual votes cast is somewhere in the 90-95% of the electoral roll. At least, that is my experience of watching these things, William or others will know more.
The trouble is, unless we know the denominator, we cant work out how many votes are left in each electorate and have an idea about how likely a seat is to change. For example East Hills is 50.4 but a Lib gain as there are no votes left, whereas Oatley is 50.4 but in doubt as only 83.4% of the vote (by the roll) has been counted.
Isn’t that right everyone?
[shellbell
Posted Wednesday, March 30, 2011 at 8:37 pm | Permalink
ML cannot help on votes to come.
We need a Balmain scrutineer. Here they are on youtube]
Ha Ha!
Rivetting…..how can I sign up?