This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.
In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.
I wish all press conferences were like this one. Good quality on both sides of the mike.
vp
Check again. I think it ABC24may have gone back to the presser
victoria,
Yes. TQ.
Gillards and Abbotts dis/approvals are statistically identical. Two unloved leaders.
But Abbotts has been virtually static since becoming leader, Gillard is still on a decline.
Boerwar
you may have spoken too soon. The journos are getting a little feral
victoria
They are excited, but it is being managed OK and the questions are good quality.
bg
Once carbon tax sorted out. The govts position will improve
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 2:55 pm | Permalink
Mr Smith suggesting that Mr Kafer will be encouraged to look for career opportunities elsewhere in the ADF.]
Serious- is he likely to be kept away from the moulding of our young breed?
[well Windsor wont be there next time to save Labor’s backside.]
who says? opinions aren’t facts mm … unless Windsor says he isn’t running, I wouldn’t count any chickens.
Where can I get a ‘licence to punt’? It all sounds so exciting.. Do I need to sit a test? Are their lessons?
[But Abbotts has been virtually static since becoming leader, Gillard is still on a decline.]
who says? predictions aren’t facts … no matter how much you want to stir the pot!
[The last major incident involved the police bashing to death several dozen arabs and throwing them off a bridge. It is thought that some of those thrown off the bridge were still alive at the time.]
Bw, do you have a link to where this has been reported?
[2411
jenauthor
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
But Abbotts has been virtually static since becoming leader, Gillard is still on a decline.
who says? predictions aren’t facts … no matter how much you want to stir the pot!
]
People forget the figures when Latham was leader.
And we all know what happened at the 2004 Election.
ok everybody. no more opinions or predictions. Jenauthor only wants facts from now on. got it?
tumbleweeds…..
sorry Jen. just teasing 🙂
bg
Many organisations are having difficulty coping with changing social mores and changing information flows arising from the digital age.
IMHO, my assessment of Mr Kafer is that he has been fully on top of neither. The old ways simply don’t work any more. This doesn’t make him evil. It just makes him unsuitable for his position at ADFA.
There are probably lots of positions in the ADF in which Mr Kafer can do good work.
Imagine PB without opinion of predictions… post counts would be lucky to hit double figures!
[Imagine PB without opinion of predictions…post counts would be lucky to hit double figures!]
There are no predictions on PB…only snapshots of a point in time.
Boerwar
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 3:14 pm | Permalink
[bg
Many organisations are having difficulty coping with changing social mores and changing information flows arising from the digital age.
IMHO, my assessment of Mr Kafer is that he has been fully on top of neither. The old ways simply don’t work any more. This doesn’t make him evil. It just makes him unsuitable for his position at ADFA.
There are probably lots of positions in the ADF in which Mr Kafer can do good work.]
I agree. Is that what Smith inferred?
I can’t recall heads ever rolling in Defence- despite a cacophony of stuff ups in personnel and materiel in the last twenty years.
Scarpat
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961
My favorite thing about PB is that I can make predictions and then a few days, weeks, months later I can bring them back and say either: I told you so OR oops.
NB: A better indexing and search function would allow us to play gotcha better with each others predictions. 😉
bg
No, that is not what Mr Smith said. It is my analysis. Mr Smith is keen on individual and institutional accountability.
IMHo, that means that if people make a really, really bad mistake, they should be sacked.
[Scarpat
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961%5D
Ok. At the time of the Algerian War. I couldn’t remember hearing of such an incident in the last 40 years.
The joys of modern sport
[3AW693 Melbourne’s Brent Moloney, CEO Cameron Schwab and Coach Dean Bailey will be available to the media today at 4pm re: public urination. 40 minutes ago via web ]
Hah! I just got an email from sen M J Fisher in response to my email of 4 March telling her of disgust of her antics in the senate back in the beginning of March.
Her response: ‘It’s important that Australians discuss Labor’s proposed carbon tax.’
My email didn’t mention the carbon tax — just her appalling behaviour. Go figure.
or 50 years Scarpat
jenauthor
Lucky you got a reply at all!! 🙂
Just how big is that elephant in the room Roo? How ya travellin there ole mate? All cashed up are ya?
[Some critics have suggested that News International’s new approach – speaking of “genuine regret” and offering to compensate several victims – is a damage limitation exercise.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend, Ms Harris – who secured publicist Max Clifford’s £1m payout for being hacked – said: “What we have at the moment is an apology and an admission, having been working on this for a very long time. We haven’t even got near the truth yet.”
Discussing the number of phones which could have been hacked into, she said: “If you consider that if you hack into one person’s phone, you have access to everyone who has left a message for them. And then, if you go into the person who has left a message, you get all of theirs. You have got to be running into several thousand, just from that methodology. To put a figure on it, it is certainly not a handful – maybe 4,000, 6,000, 7,000 – a huge amount of people.”]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/payouts-over-notw-phone-hacking-could-reach-16340m-2266048.html#
jen
I reckon that calls for a return email.
But what else would one expect from such an airhead?
The sex discrimination commisioner getting involved is nt what I expected. But it is a good move. The blokes would be seriously nervous about this.
[3AW693 Melbourne’s Brent Moloney, CEO Cameron Schwab and Coach Dean Bailey will be available to the media today at 4pm re: public urination. 40 minutes ago via web]
public urination = public ruination
“http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/punters-despise-pollies-stunts/comments-e6frg6zo-1226036879309”
Utterly hilarious. Reminded me of the “run away. run away” scene from Monty Python.
I liked the “Coalition Dummies” line. Anyone know if now that Julia G has done her solo QUANDA, will Abbott be doing the same? Would be interesting if someone throws a question that leads to 90 or so seconds of shuddering brainlock for TA again. Would be a coup for Tony Jones as it would certainly make all the papers the next day. 🙂
What’s the story about urination?
The Trogs have invaded Their ABC Rsdio in Canberra:
[
julieposettiJulie Posetti
If you’re an intelligent person, committed to gender equality, suggest you don’t tune in to @666canberra ATM for #ADFA talkback #remarkable
31 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[sorry Jen. just teasing :)]
I have objection to opinion or prediction, mm — so long as they are couched in those terms.
both my ‘says who’ s were about how they were written, as if statements of fact.
Laugh for the day
[AN IT consultant who “lost the plot” over a Chiko Roll has escaped a conviction after appearing in a Sunshine Coast court this morning.
Jeffery Bruce Clarke was fined $1200 after pleading guilty in the Maroochydore Magistrates Court this morning to assault occasioning bodily harm and common assault.
The court heard Mr Clarke, 45, jumped the counter at Mountain Creek Seafoods last month and assaulted a teenaged shop assistant over a forgotten Chiko roll.
Mr Clarke, who earns $4000 per week, had collected his takeaway order on March 13 but realised his Chiko Roll was missing when he returned home.
Mr Clarke’s duty lawyer Andrew Berneville-Claye said that ”instead of buttering some bread and staying home with his family”, his client drove back to the store.
Mr Berneville-Claye said the teenage shop assistant called his client ”a bit of an idiot for not checking his order” when he returned.
Allegedly offended by the level of customer service, the father of three then pushed merchandise off the counter and jumped over it to chase the teen, who he elbowed in the chest.
Another female employee was also injured in the scuffle.
Magistrate Hodgins said Mr Clarke had no right to go behind the counter.
”Why did you get involved in this sort of nonsense?” he said.
”It’s all over a Chiko Roll.
”You lost the plot here, well and truly.”
Mr Berneville-Claye said his client was ”remorseful” about the incident.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/it-consultant-fined-1200-for-assaulting-shop-assistant-over-forgotten-chiko-roll/story-e6frfkvr-1226037234462#ixzz1JBmbxraM
[or 50 years Scarpat]
shellbell, although my maths can be as suspect as that of the Coalition, I was thinking of the time that I have had a French connection.
[BK
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
What’s the story about urination?]
The story is only a leak at this stage.
Frank Calabrese
As per usual there are those trying to politicize this issue. They are colored by their bias.
[I have objection to opinion or prediction, mm ]
That’s NO objection — mm — sorry!!!! 🙁
It’s Their ABC:
[
ABC News
Tonight on 7.30 – A special interview with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange
A few seconds ago · Like ·
]
[julieposettiJulie Posetti
“John” a caller with clear knowledge of the military & a claim to ‘insider’ information described the Skype scandal as a “minor prank”.
2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[The story is only a leak at this stage.]
and details are cloudy — just dribbling out
[What’s the story about urination?
The story is only a leak at this stage.]
bg
Any more of that and I’ll be p…ed off!
[They are colored by their bias.]
Wot, slightly yellow?
[
julieposettiJulie Posetti
The level of misogyny in the community & the license with which it’s freely conveyed on air by some callers is quite stunning. #ADFA
5 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[The story is only a leak at this stage.]
If the story was picked up by a News Ltd paper was it leaked or hacked?
Frank. Calabrese
What’s the bet Assange will go on a rant against Gillard and Rudd
[If the story was picked up by a News Ltd paper was it leaked or hacked?]
Was the story being streamed?
Scarpat (and Socrates)
French governments denied that the Paris massacre occurred at all until around 1998. One police person was subsequently convicted. He was being had up on a number of unrelated matters and it was fairly obvious that they tucked the massacre in while they were at it so that they could say that someone had paid a price.
There is a plaque near the approaches to the relevant bridge over the Seine, which is where I accidentally discovered the incident.
Just to give you an indication of how volatile the situation is, every year in France, on New Year’s Eve, there are pitched battles between youths (many blacks and arabs, but not exclusively so) and the gendarmes. The year I was there, the Government regarded as successful their efforts to keep the number of cars burned because it was less than 4,000 vehicles in a single night.
I was subsequently told that the Government deliberately uses statistical techniques to ‘reduce’ the total. For example, if five cars parked in a row are burned, this is counted as a single ‘burning’. Not sure if it is right, but New Year’s Eve is obviously highly politicized as well as violent and destructive.
Banning the burqa in this context is simply a provocation by a right-wing president who is under pressure for his general lack of performance and from the rise of the Le Pen’s daughter extreme right wing.