The latest fortnightly Newspoll sees Labor’s 51-49 lead last time obliterated by a six-point shift to the Coalition, with Labor’s primary vote down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Large amounts of tosh were written about the Labor lead last fortnight, even though a lack of corroborating evidence from other polls made it clear enough the result was an aberration. No doubt there will further over-analysis of this correction – probably over-correction, with the New South Wales state election perhaps injecting a bit of static into proceedings. On the primary vote, Labor is down four points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up five to 45 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-31 to 46-37.
The bad polls for Labor should give the Greens some pause. The Greens in the senate will be dealing with a coalition govt soon enough if they don’t smarten up.
In fairness to Arbib and Bitar, who seem to be scapegoats here (not agreeing with Frank on the racism angle though), neither were in Cabinet when the ETS was delayed and neither have been shown to have asked for the delay.
Arbib has given up his role as factional leader of the NSW Right and Bitar is out. It’s time to find new scapegoats or blame the people who actually made the bad decisions like Rudd, Gillard and Swan.
This is really important news for the South Australian economy. I’m surprised it hasn’t made the news more. BHPB is advancing the Olympic Dam mien to feasibility study stage:
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/bb/investorsMedia/news/2011/bhpBillitonAdvancesTheOlympicDamProject.jsp
While the publicity around Olympic Dam is on uranium, the real money is in the copper and gold. It is the fourth largest copper resource in the world, and most of the bigger ones are already largely exploited.
The Gillard Government’s rope-a-dope strategy on Abbott over the Carbon Pollution Tax is proceeding very well. In fact it is proceeding so well that there is some collateral damage amongst some of the PBers!! 🙂
The problem has been that Gillard has lacked credibility from day one and has done everything to confirm that impression since.
This will be fatal to Gillard’s future as it makes very easy for the Opposition to attack her on credibility, truthfulness, loyalty and consistency.
And now the ‘revelation’ that Gillard wanted to ditch any thought of an ETS entirely consequently when her (and Swan’s) power is on the line to suddenly support a carbon tax, the view of her as being deceitful and dishonest is magnified. And the fact that she directly benefited from her damaging advices to the PM makes the case against much worse than plain old dishonesty.
In short if the Opposition went around referring to Gillard as ‘backstabbing Julia’ it would stick because it is reinforced by her performances and deeds so far.
Expect the right wing media and the opposition to go hard on Gillard’s honesty, loyalty and credibility.
Yep, its too late for backflips now – and in any case, that was the ALPs problem all along – the stupid backflipping not the particualr policy. Rudd admitted it openly last night.
And the headless chook acts upon a bad poll. Stop getting freaked by TOTALLY irrelevant polls 2.5 years from goal.
If anyone think these polls were going to improve before the compo package was out, they were very silly.
Incidentally, Newspoll, whats going on with yer samples? Swings are too wild lately.
Mumble on Newspoll. A well deserved shocker in his view
[
Today’s Newspoll has the ALP’s two party preferred support at a low low 45 percent.
Until 2004, Newspoll didn’t measure or estimate two party preferred numbers outside election campaigns, and since then they’ve done it in several ways.
By my 2pp estimtes, Labor hasn’t had a worse Newspoll since October 2001 in the aftermath of Tampa and then September 11.
Tables here.
As a rule it is a mistake to link individual opinion polls to specific incidents that ‘happened’ in the last fortnight.
But let’s make an exception in this case.
This hung parliament, with the Greens component, would make it difficult for any prime minister, but Julia Gillard seems to have extra trouble generating authority.
Her apparent addiction to ‘values’ talk doesn’t help.
Last week’s Whitlam Oration (it is here) covered several topics, but the attack on the Greens received most coverage.
And, rightly, the most criticism.
]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/well_deserved_shocker/
[LATIKAMBOURKE |
Hockey says KRudd’s revelations last night prove people in Gillard Govt and possibly JG herself prefer Direct Action to Carbon Tax.
LATIKAMBOURKE | 14 seconds ago
Joe Hockey says ‘you only have 150 characters….’ then promises to tweet copy of Direct Action policy to his ’20 thousand’ followers]
LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 second ago
Caller to 774 ABC berating Joe Hockey for not responding to people on Twitter….
I love this
[WA Nat rubbishes Abbott climate policy
ANDREW PROBYN FEDERAL POLITICAL EDITOR, The West Australian April 5, 2011, 5:15 am
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WA Nationals MLC Philip Gardiner has savaged Tony Abbott’s $11 billion “direct action” alternative to the Gillard Government’s carbon tax, saying it would neither change polluters’ behaviour nor drive innovation in clean energy.
It came as former prime minister Kevin Rudd said last night that members of his Cabinet urged him to ditch emissions trading forever.
Mr Gardiner, who is behind a push for the WA Nationals to support a price on carbon, said Australia’s conservatives must embrace market-based strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “My message to Tony is that this is a matter of urgency and the conservative parties must recognise the combination of the realities of global warming with possible risks to climate change,” he said.
“We’ve got to get a policy package which is going to change behaviour and drive the innovation and technology which is necessary to be world-competitive.”
He said the Federal coalition’s direct action alternative to pricing carbon, under which billions of taxpayers’ dollars would be pumped into planting trees and paying selected polluters to reduce emissions, would amount to a big tax.
“It’s picking winners,” he said. “How often are governments successful in picking winners? Be honest, Tony, you’re actually funding this with a big tax. It may not be explicit but it’s implicit: a big tax.”
Mr Gardiner’s motion to support a price on carbon was deferred at the WA Nationals’ weekend State conference until after further analysis of the Government’s plan for a carbon tax.
Federal WA Nationals MP Tony Crook said the way his party dealt with mixed opinions on climate change policy was an example for Labor and the coalition, saying the “shouting match” in Federal Parliament had been disgraceful.
Mr Crook said a carbon price would probably be more effective than direct action in reducing emissions but he remained unconvinced that punishing polluters, who contributed to Australia’s prosperity, would make any difference to global warming and would only result in jobs being exported.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/9134815/wa-nat-rubbishes-abbott-climate-policy/
Diogenes@102
Yes, such as Feeney and Farrell and Conroy, Shorten and Howes. Although to mention them all is to be “racist” against those of Anglo-Saxon origin, I guess. 😀
Sadly it is up to the Greens to pick up the legacy that Gillard Labor has discarded so we at least have a genuine left party remaining in Australia.
bad result
factors
boats
tax
toxic media
come 1 july 2 and 3 can be fixed
boats cant, the underlying racism of the electorate shines thru
🙁
lefty e
I am not concerned about the polls, but it does indicate that the govt is not pleasing the electorate.
Gusface
I agree with the underlying racism. It is very entrenched.
b-g
so what do the WA Nats want?
Gillard’s recent attacks on the Greens are so phoney and stage managed that it’s beyond a joke – she’s actually far more a spin driven leader than her predecessor.
evan14
Tell that to Bob Brown. He was very upset last night on LL
I’m no huge Bob Brown fan, but he doesn’t deserve the abuse and character assassination heaped on him by an obviously desperate Prime Minister.
I agree with TP: Julia is in huge trouble! Her leadership, ironically enough, depends on the successful passage through parliament of a Carbon Tax, yet it’s the same policy that she forced her predecessor to dump 12 months ago(to her subsequent political advantage).
blue-green:
WA Nats aren’t as strident as the Federal Nats.
And IIRC Philip Gardiner stood against Wilson Tuckey in the 2007 (or 2004) fed election as the Nat candidate in O’Connor.
evan14
a carbon tax is not the same policy at all. What are you saying?
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 8:58 am | Permalink
b-g
so what do the WA Nats want?]
The WA Nats are having an internal policy debate, I imagine that it will end up opposing a tax, but it should be fun to watch anyway.
[so what do the WA Nats want?]
Let me guess … more welfare for farmers, Work”Choices” for the employees of farmers …
evan14
Rudd was in huge trouble 12 months ago as well.
Confessions
I will have something up on my soil carbon blog later today.
Was really proud of Kevin last night. He really knows his stuff (maybe too well – comes across as a total foreign affairs nerd).
What annoyed me last night was Tony Jones pursuing the whole “WHO DID IT” point for 10 minutes straight. Didn’t care about the policy or competing factors put forward by Kevin… he just wanted names.
He was like a kid egging on a schoolyard fight. What a joke.
WA Nats usually want to pipe water from the kimberley to the WA wheat belt.
Victoria: if it was good enough to dump Rudd 12 months ago, doesn’t the same apply to Gillard, whose poll numbers right now are arguably worse?
evan14
I would argue that was not the only reason why Rudd was dumped.
blue-green:
Thanks. I look forward to reading it!
[The Greens in the senate will be dealing with a coalition govt soon enough if they don’t smarten up.]
That will be the one consolation if we ever have to endure PM Abbott. Just about everything he would like to do he won’t be able to get through the parliament. He’d be tearing his hair out.
victoria@51
Completely agree, Victoria. Yes, these figures are bad for Labor. Fortunately they have no real significance as long as Abbott remains LOTO.
I reckon Gillard should put Abbott in protective custody – he personally (and his toxic relationships with the independants) are the only thing standing between the One Libreral Nation party and government at the moment. She needs to make sure nothing happens to him while she gets to work on fixing the problems. First and foremost, flesh out the carbon pricing (and the compensation scheme) so we can finally put this one to bed. Then get the NBN rollout working smoothly. Also, get a sensible regional approach to asylum seekers in place.
Then she could easily win the next election even if Abbott is replaced by someone more acceptable to the electorate.
[WA Nats usually want to pipe water from the kimberley to the WA wheat belt.]
I thought that was the Libs – remember Barnett tripping up on his pipeline costings which arguably lost them the election?
[WA Nats usually want to pipe water from the kimberley to the WA wheat belt.]
Taxes would be needed to pay for that. And these people say they are against taxes … yet constantly hold their hands out for taxpayer money. Privatise the profits, socialise the losses – that’s the Nats.
More on Bolta’s new show
[
ANDREW Bolt is in talks with Channel 10 to host his own weekly political talk show.
It is understood the Herald Sun columnist would go to air at 10am on Sunday mornings — repeated again at 4.30pm the same day.
The show would be a filmed version of Bolt’s popular Herald Sun blog — Australia’s biggest — with guests, interviews and the columnist’s trademark opinion.
Channel 10 acting chief executive Lachlan Murdoch is believed to have been heavily involved in discussions about the new show.
No deal has been signed and negotiations are continuing.
]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/confidential/channel-10-lining-up-andrew-bolt-for-weekly-political-fix/story-e6frf96x-1226033627922
madcyril 2107,
Thanks for that article.
Mumbles is, in my opinion, away with the pixies if he thinks Julias statements about the greens had anything at all to do with this newspoll. In fact I would be surprised if many voters out there even knew or cared that Julia made a speech last week.
This poll is just a return to the norm so to speak after the poll of two weeks ago. Not good for labor but really no worse than the poll four weeks ago.
triton
my point precisely. The Greens have a chance of achieving some of their aims in this parliament, because nothing will get done in the next one. So I think the govt, indies and greens better get their act together re carbon reduction and the mining tax asap.
Doyley
Labor are doing poorly this fortnight because of the concerns people have re the hip pocket. It is all about the hip pocket.
Stanny
I think Abbott would regard “lacking alternate policy viewpoints” as a strength.
The way it seems to work is that whoever is the incumbent bears all the responsibility, and whoever seeks to replace has none. Nobody’s criticising the ALP‘s performance in comparison to what the Coalition is offering. It’s only criticised in comparison to some vague ideal performance. That’s all very well, but when it comes to elections, voting a government out with no consideration of who you might be voting in is one of the stupider things you can do. As evidence of that we need look no further than the present governments of Victoria and NSW.
That’s one major reason why the Abbott opposition needs to be put under intense scrutiny. If they’re lazy enough to get by on simply saying no all the time, and appealing to people’s baser instincts as a way to shore up votes, then they’ll be lazy enough to try it out when and if they get into power as well. They ought to be made to work just as hard on policy and argument as the ALP, so that they’ll be fit to actually do something should they be called on to do so.
In addition,the criticisms are left to stand without scrutiny. This $850 a year burden on taxpayers that’s being bandied about is a fiction, and assumes no compensation for anyone, which is completely counter to what the government are saying.
I’d say the current poll figures have a lot to do with what people think the carbon tax is going to cost them. As such they’re inflated the Coalition’s way, because the reportage is more dire than the reality.
[if it was good enough to dump Rudd 12 months ago, doesn’t the same apply to Gillard, whose poll numbers right now are arguably worse?]
No, because then the party will have dumped two PMs in less than a year, whereas in Rudd’s case it was a one-off.
Hmmm. JG’s “Green bashing” is starting to make sense if this article is true.
Julia Gillard reaches out to Christian leaders
And hat has the photo got to do with the article?
madcyril:
I’ve said all along Bolt belongs on commercial TV. He’s far too hysterical for an allegedly serious political show like Insiders.
Interesting that it’s Ch10 signing him up. From memory Ch10 rates highest in the youth demographic, but I don’t think Bolt is someone who would appeal to young people. I’ll be interested to see how it goes.
[Labor are doing poorly this fortnight because of the concerns people have re the hip pocket. It is all about the hip pocket.]
The people are being manipulated by a toxic media, which of course helps no one but the One Liberal Nation Party. The noxious Alan Jones and Co are relayed from the city to much of regional Australia. Labor and/or the Unions need to buy into their own media outlets (say, some talk stations of their own) to counter the one-sided message.
Amanda Lampe set to be next ALP national secretary according to Coorey
[
Julia Gillard’s former chief of staff, Amanda Lampe, is the frontrunner to become the next ALP national secretary.
Ms Lampe will be the candidate put forward by the Right faction at this Friday’s ALP national executive. The Right has the majority on the executive and it is understood Ms Lampe has the backing of both Ms Gillard and the deputy Prime Minister, Wayne Swan.
Advertisement: Story continues below Her elevation is likely to be controversial.
Ms Lampe stood down as Ms Gillard’s chief of staff in late January, citing family pressures. Ms Gillard was also under pressure to make changes to her office following growing internal criticism.
The office had been blamed for some of the more significant election campaign blunders such as the citizens’ assembly policy.
]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/amanda-lampe-set-to-become-alp-national-secretary-20110405-1czgj.html
stupid to attack the very party she is in coalition with to form government. Dumb, stupid, irrational and shortsighted.
By doing so it attacks her own integrity!!! FFS, sack your advisors Julia they are liberal stooges leading you down the garden path, into the the gutter and thence to oblivion!
Triton:
There are things he’d like to do? Beyond bike riding and iron man comps? And saying, “I’m the Prime Minister”? First I’ve heard of it.
evan14 @127,
Your question raises the observation that as Julias polling is no better than Kevins perhaps it was some other issue(s) with Kevin that resulted in him losing the support of Caucus.
His management style, perhaps?
I admire Julia very much and Kevin is a good labor man and fine FA minister.
Polls will not be good for the next couple of months. No sugar coating. Everytime a poll comes out I suppose the same tired old arguments about Kev and Julia will get some air.
Perhaps we can just cut and paste these comments from poll to poll.
Will save some time.
[Amanda Lampe set to be next ALP national secretary according to Coorey]
The focus group soulless machine rolls on.
[
I’ve said all along Bolt belongs on commercial TV. He’s far too hysterical for an allegedly serious political show like Insiders.
]
confessions
Agreed. It will be interesting to see how he goes. From memory, the track record of right wing / shock jock types moving to commercial TV isn’t great (stand to be corrected).
Article author Bowe notes “Large amounts of tosh were written….” After reading the 145 comments here about a News Poll I can only conclude that no truer words have been written in recent time.
Comment by legendary Australia scientist David Horton on the Deltoid blog about Greg Hunt and Soil Carbon
[If Greg really thinks we can just go on emitting more and more CO2 and compensate by burying more and more charcoal he is not as smart as I thought he was. I had thought that, along with Turnbull, Hunt was one of the few Liberal MPs who was living in the world of reality and science.]