A day after the LNP made Queensland’s head spin by resolving to have Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman campaign for Premier from outside of parliament while contesting the fairly solid Labor seat of Ashgrove, Newspoll throws in another grenade: a poll showing Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, with Anna Bligh enjoying what is undoubtedly a record 49 point reversal on her net approval rating. Like most state Newspolls, this one was compiled from respondents in the state over the course of Newspoll’s last three months of polling, on this occasion covering a sample of 944 with a margin of error of 3.2 per cent. It was thus conducted during and after the floods crisis, whereas the previous poll was conducted entirely before. On the primary vote, Labor is up 12 points to 38 per cent, the Coalition is down eight points to 37 per cent and the Greens are down three points to 10 per cent, while the two-party figure compares with 59-41 to the Coalition in the previous poll. Even after a 25-point rise in approval and 24-point fall in disapproval, Anna Bligh’s ratings are still good rather than great: 49 per cent approval, 43 per cent disapproval. John-Paul Langbroek’s farewell result was a five-point fall in approval to 33 per cent and a two-point rise in disapproval to 40 per cent. On better Premier, a 41-31 lead to Langbroek turned into a 53-26 lead to Bligh. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
The result is very different from the other post-floods poll to emerge, from Galaxy on February 20. This showed a much worse result for Labor on voting intention – the LNP led 46 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred, despite the fact that Anna Bligh’s approval rating was a much higher 60 per cent. It is also different from LNP polling we were hearing about as part of the campaign to undermine Langbroek, which supposedly asked separately who respondents would vote for out of Labor and the LNP, or Anna Bligh and John-Paul Langbroek – finding the LNP leading 56-44 on the first question but 52-48 on the second (as the Sunday Mail reported it, the latter result was “short of the 54 per cent needed to win”). With Campbell Newman however, “it would be 66-34”. Newman was also said to lead Langbroek 77-10 as preferred party leader.
UPDATE: Andrew Fraser of The Australian checks off the positives: “Newman is demonstrably a popular mayor in Brisbane, the LNP has secret polling that allegedly shows he’s popular across the state, and he has a ‘cut-through’ factor in the media, which the LNP desperately needs and which Langbroek lacked.” However, without having investigated a possible dearth of alternatives, it seems to me that the LNP has committed to an appallingly big risk by pitching Newman against a solid Labor seat held by an appealing young member. History suggests Labor will be able to make hay by putting it to voters that Newman will be back at city hall soon enough if he doesn’t win – so that a vote for Jones would be a vote not just for her and Bligh but for Newman as well, whereas a vote for Newman would leave only him standing. If polling were to emerge showing Newman indeed falling short, the conservatives would walk into yet another mid-campaign implosion.
I’m sure the Courier Mail will commission a Galaxy very quickly to try to boost the Campbell Newman farce.
ABC/Courier Mail Joint Venture is in possession of the LNP commissioned polling which the LNP faceless men are claiming as justification for the launch of the Ship Of Fools strategy, so let’s hope someone with a sense of social responsibility leaks that in the coming days. There is a copy in the ABC newsroom, but not everyone has access to it.
Trubbell at Mill
Really? There appears to be a few unhappy LNP members, especially those who supported Fiona Simpson at the leadership last night.
I think that might be leaked.
Meanwhile this ‘showpony’, being paid to be Lord Mayor, is running around saying he is the best thing that has ever happened to Qld, doesn’t have a seat, isn’t in Parliament, and if he doesn’t win the seat of Ashgrove expects to come back and be Lord Mayor. What an ego.
How any mainstream commentator or punter can take Tony Abbott seriously after being guest speaker at that bizarre wingnut rally, and forming common cause with Pauline Hanson, is beyond me.
And if he doesnt win Ashgrove, QLD gets Seeney. Or some equivalent buffoon.
When that sinks in to the public mind – Bligh will look even better than she does now.
[When that sinks in to the public mind – Bligh will look even better than she does now.]
It seems Anna is up against a lucky dip (or unlucky dip). I can’t see how they can possibly sell this. He may win/he may not. It is just ludicrous.
It apprears the LNP are planning to throw this election – Peter Debnam style.
When the next election comes around, QLP ALP will likely be seen like NSW ALP are now ie. an old government. My prediction – the LNP will romp it in in 2014.
An update I’ve added to the post:
[Andrew Fraser of The Australian checks off the positives: “Newman is demonstrably a popular mayor in Brisbane, the LNP has secret polling that allegedly shows he’s popular across the state, and he has a ‘cut-through’ factor in the media, which the LNP desperately needs and which Langbroek lacked.” However, without having investigated a possible dearth of alternatives, it seems to me that the LNP has committed to an appallingly big risk by pitching Newman against a solid Labor seat held by an appealing young member. History suggests Labor will be able to make hay by putting it to voters that Newman will be back at city hall soon enough if he doesn’t win – so that a vote for Jones would be a vote not just for her and Bligh but for Newman as well, whereas a vote for Newman would leave only him standing. If polling were to emerge showing Newman indeed falling short, the conservatives would walk into yet another mid-campaign implosion.]
[the Coalition is down eight months to 37 per cent]
im guessing months is meant to be points? 🙂
Good guess. Fixed.
I think this result is just a fraction short of where Labor would like to be. They traditionally call an election when their Primary vote reaches 50% in Queensland but after the stupidity we have seen from the LNP this week that figure can’t be too far away.
The Brisbane times has started putting out their stories at 3:00am now rather than the weird 6:00am. Here’s a sample of their latest work. I tend to agree that the longer this Newman farce goes on the better it would be for Labor.
[“I tend to think she is better off waiting because I think the situation gets more ridiculous by the day, not less,” he said.
“It would very tempting to go now but if I were to be asked I’d take three deep breaths and wait a bit longer.”]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/when-will-bligh-pull-the-trigger-20110323-1c6qw.html
No wonder this cooked up scheme seems to make no sense, it turns out to be the lovechild of Peter Dutton according to the OO story about how the plot was hatched.
[They were an unlikely trio. Former Queensland Liberal president Bob Tucker and his mate, one-time state MP and barrister Ian Prentice, sat quietly with federal Liberal frontbencher Peter Dutton, a former baton-carrier for the pair’s once-bitter factional rival Santo Santoro.
That meeting sowed the seed for Newman’s unprecedented jump this week into state politics, sanctioned on Monday night in a discussion between LNP bosses and party patron, mining magnate Clive Palmer.]
The Curious Snail on reaction from the fake Leader who got a $61000 payrise yesterday but will not lead anyone anywhere:
[The plan to have Mr Seeney as Opposition Leader in Parliament and Cr Newman as election team leader on all other occasions has caused unrest within the LNP party room.
Sunshine Coast MP Fiona Simpson challenged for the leadership and gained significant support.
But Mr Seeney dismissed claims she achieved up to 13 votes despite admitting he didn’t know the actual result.
He refused to guarantee Ms Simpson a frontbench position and condemned those who had supported her leadership bid.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/jeff-seeney-warns-lnp-mps-to-put-up-or-get-out-if-they-dont-like-campbell-newman-move/story-e6freoof-1226027046178
The NLP in QLD is a joke. They are not even fit to lead a buck’s party.
Newman may win Ashgrove but the lnp may not win government.
What then, would Newman resign his state seat to try for mayor of Brissie again?
Would one the of the Brissie lnp councillors resign their seat so Newman could get back on council, esp if the council elections and state election were around the same time.
This poll is a good one for Bligh, and does not surprise me. Engineergin friends in Qld tell me the govt there has been workign genuinely hard to repair flood damage, and results are already evident. Recently a rail line from Toowoomba to Brisbane wa re-opened, months earlier than predicted. Other work is proceeding too. I think this is why her polls have improved so much. It isn’t just a down to earth and credible comunication style; it is backed up by delivery.
The next poll will be interesting. In one sense, I don’t think voters will attach much blame to Newman. He is trying for the top job, without forcing someone else out of their seta. But the bizarre circumstancs are presumably because no incumbent in a relevant LNP seat in Brisbane was prepared to give it up. I think that wil hurt the LNP.
I like Newman going for an ALP seats, if he wants to be premier, he will need to win seats from the ALP to do so, if he cannot win a seat close to the Brisbane Council, he probably won’t win an election anyway. In NSW, they forced someone to give Unsworth a safe ALP seat in the state election, and the electorate revoted and Unsworth almost lost, so I think it is a good idea that he is not in a safe seat
As for an immediate election, if the leadership of the Liberals did not change, Bligh would have called an election. She won’t now, because of what happened to the ALP in WA, when the ALP try to cash in on a change of leadership, Bligh also do not know how Newman would be received by the electorate, so an election now would be a big gamble
I think droping Borg and getting Newman was a good move by the Liberal
Bligh would be smarter not to go right now – Labor governments aren’t rewarded for going to early elections, as Alan Carpenter could testify.
I am also a bit suspicious about how the NLP seem to know they need to change leader 2 days before this poll came out.
I agree with dovif that Labor would be foolish to go ot an early election. First it would be a backflip on previous commitments. Second it woudl show the government was dropping interest in reconstruction, when there are still many people in Brisbane who have lost their homes. Third, it would look opportunistic, when the bounce Bligh has received was because she was seen to just get on with the job, not play politics. Don’t go there.
It wouldn’t be the first time that Newspolls have been leaked to the Liberals – I’m sure Abbott & his troops on Monday afternoon had an inkling that the following day’s Newspoll wouldn’t be a good one for them.
Dovif’s theory could be on the money, in relation to the LNP.
Exciting times here in QLD. I agree that the longer this goes on the better. I watched a replay of QT (great new feature on QLD Parliament website where you can read Hansard and then click on the video icon on the side of the page and actually watch the part you are reading) yesterday and you can see the arguements that the ALP will use forming. Also, heard Anna on FM radio this morning and she was reinforcing these.
If she doesn’t call an election until next year, Newman will have 12 months of doing nothing but campaigning, whilst she is actually rebuilding. That is not a good look for him.
I’m also looking forward to a closer look at the finances of Brisbane.
Socrates
Spot on with every comment you’ve made. Bligh can even say come the next election, “I’ve kept my word on the election date…” etc whilst we are rebuilding the state.
The LNP have made a huge political gamble with their strategy, and it has got off to the worst possible start with the parliamentary leadership role being bitterly fought over as well. The most amazing part of it all is that there isn’t even a safe(ish) seat for him to jump into.
This smacks of panic and opportunism amongst the LNP and Mr Newman has made his first major political mistake. He should have waited until the plotters had found a safe seat for him and the relevant MP could have come out to support it all.
Anyone opposing the LNP in Queensland has been handed a gift.
Clearly the LNP caucus lacks sufficient talent – by its own tacit admission – to find an effective leader within its own ranks. What does that say about the team as a whole? Who’d elect a Party like that?
Obviously the whole deal about having a backbencher in a safe seat retire so that their leader could be, you know, actually in the Parliament was way to easy and predictable for the LNP………….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/not-wealthy-newman-appeals-for-cash/story-fn59niix-1226027012825
Typical conservative. First order of business “where’s my money?”. Maybe you should have thought about that first Campbell.
Darryl,
[It appears the LNP are planning to throw this election – Peter Debnam style. ]
Nobody self destructs like the Queensland Tories.
The Debnam election farce was a model of discipline & well run campaigning compared with what the LNP are capable of! 😉
Somebody on PB was raving on a while ago about how Anna Bligh was going to be smashed at the next election and I said at the time that, that was more than a tad premature and that Bligh had every chance of winning again.
Going by this Poll, I’m not far off the mark so far! 😉
This could go so bad for the LNP that they could probably lose the Lord Mayoralty and Brisbane City Council at the next Local Government elections also.
Don’t you just love them. Probably getting their strategic advice off Barnaby at the moment.
Must be about time for him to again, put up his hand for a House of Reps Seat so that he can nominate for the Federal Leadership! 😉
Scorpio
The ALP will still be smashed at the next election. This is a post-disaster bounce, which all government handling a crisis gets, Howard ticked (10%), Brumby ticked (8%), Bligh ticked (2%).
Brumby and Howard had their biggest 2PP led after 9/11 and the Vic Bushfire, Bligh got the same bounce and are now just 2% in front.
People asked about voting intension at the time of a large disaster, generally think, I am still alive and Bligh did really well in the time of a disaster, I will give him/her a atta-boy.
When people looks at voting at the election a year down the track, they will go back to Lying, Education, Transport, future. The disaster will be so far done their list of priorities, that they are going to forget how well Brumby did during the bushfire. The fact that she is only 2% in front, actually show how gone this ALP government is.
[Don’t you just love them. Probably getting their strategic advice off Barnaby at the moment. ]
Made that comment before I read Steve’s! LOL
[ They were an unlikely trio. Former Queensland Liberal president Bob Tucker and his mate, one-time state MP and barrister Ian Prentice, sat quietly with federal Liberal frontbencher Peter Dutton, a former baton-carrier for the pair’s once-bitter factional rival Santo Santoro.
That meeting sowed the seed for Newman’s unprecedented jump this week into state politics, sanctioned on Monday night in a discussion between LNP bosses and party patron, mining magnate Clive Palmer. ]
What can one say! LOL 😉 😉 😉
It’s a wonder they didn’t suggest that Newman go for the Federal Leadership and have a go at Katter’s electorate or something just as ridiculous although Dutton seems to have a thing about the Gold Coast! 😉
For all those who are cheering very loudly for the upcoming QLD ALP triumph
Here is the Newspoll and the Victorian cheering squard 2 years ago
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/06/newspoll-60-40-to-labor-in-victoria/
dovif,
[Scorpio
The ALP will still be smashed at the next election. ]
Unfortunately my friend, I have “never” had too much concern about the crash in Bligh’s polling figures or worried much about her getting back over the line at the next election.
The Qld Tories don’t operate in any logical fashion and stunts like the Joh for PM one, Russell Hinze wanting to be Premier even with criminal charges hanging over his head, the intra party war the Liberals undertook for decades (still going even though they are now part of the LNP) and a heap more, sort of work against your lot gaining the Treasury Benches any time soon.
So no, Dovif, Bligh “won’t” be smashed at the next election, it will be more likely just a leisurely stroll back in.
Scorpio
Sorry I heard it all before in the above link
When Qld vote at the next election, I bet they are thinking, If I get wash away in a Flood, at least, Anna will be there to comfort me
Dovif,
Don’t try and impose any Victorian situation to Queensland.
They are very much different up here.
Just sit back and enjoy the ride. It all happens up here in Qld.
Pass the popcorn! 😉
Sorry, it was too amusing for me not to post it. I will save this as a link for next year too
Gary Bruce
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 9:09 am | Permalink
I think Labor will be returned in Victoria next year however. The opposition is woeful
centaur009
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 10:30 am | Permalink
GB we may even pick up a seat or two, especially the hand full that went down to the wire falling to the libs
I’ld be very suprised if labor didn’t win back Ferntree gully, hastings, kilsyth, narracan and gain bayswater and possibly Morwell from the Nats
Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 11:41 am | Permalink
There is absolutley no evidence that Labor is under threat unless you believe the rantings of Bolt and a few bored journalists. Liberals are on target for another smashing.
Glen
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
Baillieu is a goner based on these figures bring out the next lamb to the slaughter, god you are pathetic stupid Vic Libs…
Glen
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 5:09 pm | Permalink
GG who cares we wont win anyway, i couldnt give a toss.
Those clowns dont deserve to be in power, neither do Labor but they’re already in power.
Labour 1999-2014…what a disgrace…those at HQ should hang their heads in shame!
centaur009
Posted Friday, March 6, 2009 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
In FTG Libs won by only 30 votes. The only booths that the libs won were Lysterfield, park ridge and Kewoo. i think they were all fire areas. Chalk up a Lab gain for that one.
Mudler would do worse than Baileau- I think kennet will throw his hat back in the ring after 2010
Dovif
You seem to be unaware that the LNP have just knifed their leader in the back and the plot was actioned by the faceless men and mercenary commercial interests that us QLDers so abhor – you do remember K Rudd don’t you? Your lot were pretty outraged by that, remember?
To make matters much MUCH MUCH worse they are now trying to draft an unelected opportunist into some kind of defacto leadership position that looks about as stable as a Japanese nuclear reactor. This situation is likely to drag on for months. This farce will play out daily until us voters won’t be able to stomach the thought, let alone the sight of the LNP. You can not imagine the destruction this ill thought out and hastily cobbled together plan will wreak on these clowns. The LNP are finished. There will need to be a new party for there to be a conservative gov’t in QLD.
[I think droping Borg and getting Newman was a good move by the Liberal]
dovif
Actually Langbroek was dropped for Newman, the Borg was dropped for Nicholls. It is such a bad situation that both have refused to serve on the front bench even if the LNP win.
Another important point is that flood and cyclone affected areas were not included in the polls that produced this result.
Geezlouise
There are a lot of differences between disposing of an opposition leader (not doing that well in the polls)and a sitting first term prime minister (who was still doing OK in the published polls).
It is actually quite a bold act by the LNP. No doubt the ALP polling was showing that Anna Bligh and the ALP had got a bounce in the polls – and this act by the LNP pulls the rug out from under that to some extent. If Anna Bligh should go the polls early, she will look cynical and opportunistic – just consider that since 1998 when the ALP were elected, they have managed a 3 year term once (in 2004). Methinks that all of the froth and bubble from the ALP is motivated by their game plan all of a sudden being upset.
There is no doubt that it is a gamble on the part of the LNP, Campbell Newman has to win his own seat first. If the LNP are to win office, they have to win seats in Brisbane, it has been shown that the LNP leader had to come from Brisbane or the Gold Coast. Should Campbell Newman fail, his political career is toast.
Rua
The flood and cyclone areas probably wouldn’t make that much difference to the overall picture as politically they would cancel each other out – both contain strong LNP and ALP voting areas.
Dovif,
that little bit of prediction stuff by our roving pollsters is pure gold! i agree with you i think Labor is in trouble in Queensland and the Murdoch media are waiting for a good to put their money on, and they have been waiting for a very long time.
You get these experts who are suggesting that Labor will be back in government in Victoria in four years, i don’t believe it,
i think it is probably twelve. Daniel Andrews is a dud, have not seen or heard him since election night and his team are not much better other than Hulls of course.
blackburnpseph
My point is that every major population centre in Qld was effected by floods or cyclones. Not just Brisbane. But Gympie, Maryborough, Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Townsville, Cairns, Toowoomba, St George, etc etc.
Where did they poll?
Rua
The “where did they poll?” question is quite justified.
Presumably the last few rounds of polling have included almost everywhere but in the Qld context there must have been one or two fortnightly rounds that were quite affected. Of course, the cyclone was a few weeks after the floods, and whether Cairns and Townsville would be regarded as cyclone affected (compared to say Innsfail) would be open to question.
Are you suggesting that the result benefits one side or the other when the cyclone/ flood area not being polled is taken into account?
The problem for Newman, as I see it, is that this election will not be won for the NLP in seats based in Brisbane alone. Of Labor’s 20 most marginal seats, only six are in any part within the Brisbane City Council’s boundaries. Most beyond this 20 (including Ashgrove under normal circumstances) are pretty unwinnable for the LNP.
For the LNP to get the seats it needs to form government they need to pick them up everywhere, particularly in the coastal regions and the Moreton Bay LGA. Is Newman popular there? How is going to dedicate time to campaigning all over the state when he’s got to, at the same time, overcome a 7% margin?
Avec
The Lord Mayor of Brisbane would have a high profile throughout the SEQ media market, and no doubt through Qld as a whole.
As for campaigning statewide and in his own seat (which at that stage will not be his own) that will be a challenge – one problem that the LNP may have is that they will need to put a disproportionate number of resources into Ashgrove which may not somewhere else, and they may well win Ashgrove but fall short overall.
[Are you suggesting that the result benefits one side or the other when the cyclone/ flood area not being polled is taken into account?]
No, I am saying we should ot read too much into this poll (or rather collection of polls).
Campbell Newman is despised in some areas of Brisbane. 400% Rate increases are not too popular. 🙂
Another problem for Newman is that he cannot get funding for any travel he undertakes during an election campaign.
ruawake
I’m sure a certain unnamed benefactor can cover the travel expenses.
It would have been very interesting to have local council polling available. I understand that he was outrageously popular at the last election, but I’d really like to see how popular Campbell is now.
[I’m sure a certain unnamed benefactor can cover the travel expenses.]
Not in Qld. $3,000 limit on donations.
Blackburnpseph
The differences between deposing a PM and a state LOTO are obvious. The similarity is that in both cases the method of deposition does little to endear the voters.
Drafting an unelected citizen into a leader-in-waiting position may seem bold to you, I’d describe it as more audacious, much like opening with a KBP move. It may confound your opponent but there is a very big downside that will affect play for the duration.
It certainly adds another level of interest to QLD politics.