Essential Research: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW

Essential Research has produced a final poll for the NSW election, and while the scale of the Labor wipeout indicated is on the high end, it’s best viewed as yet another poll within the same range (62-38 to 66-34) that all polls have been registering throughout the year. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to a dizzying 55 per cent, with Labor down one to 23 per cent and the Greens down one to 11 per cent. The data comes from “three week averages”, which I take to mean part of the sample was covered in the previous Essential result. Regional breakdowns point to a result of biblical proportions for Labor in Sydney, where their primary vote is at 20 per cent compared with 42.5 per cent in 2007. Outside of Sydney the Coalition’s lead is 58-42 – pointing to a modest-under-the-circumstances swing of 6 per cent. The poll shows a remarkable consistency between the three designated age groups, except that the Greens poach an extra four points from Labor in the 18-34 bracket.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

143 comments on “Essential Research: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW”

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  4. I totally agree with Dovif old thread about O’Farrell lasting the next four years given the vote he is likely to get. The bigger the majority the more that the moderates will totally obliterate the Clarke, Hawke right.
    I am slightly revising my forecast in order to cater for Gusface ALP 24 and 79 Independents although quite a lot of those Indies will be conservatives maybe sayb71 to 73 of them.
    No idea about the LC I just wished it could be abolished in the next term.
    Eddie good luck on the road tomorrow and keep the posts coming in when able.
    Question at what time will the first Election telecast call the outcome and who will it be I reckon Ntony Green for sure at

  5. This is my first post in over a year to express unbounded esteem for Gusface, who I feel has gained a new greatness by attempting to outstare the impending epoch of Labor emptiness.

    Until the last micro-second before booths close, Gusface will be shouting, “Carn!” to Premier Keneally in her quixotic battle.

    For the seat of Wollongong, our local rag, “The Mockery”, puffed up a vacuous church pastor, Gordon Bradberry, into running as an Indie. The editor conjured up the title of “The People’s Padre” and showered him with FoxNews-like propaganda in order to unseat arguably Labor’s weakest performer, Noreen Hay. All the same she’s the least of evils among one of the worst ballot of no-hopers I’ve ever seen.

    Bradberry narrowly leads in latest poll, but with no candidate recommending preferences, who knows?

    In our North Gong seat of Keira, the retirement of David Campbell has cost Labor a certain victory and a good MLA. Polls have ALP’s Ryan Park and Libs’ John Dorahy at 50-50. Again, who knows?

    The single scintilla of consolation is that O’Farrell’s Coalition will hold Gong City Council elections this September, which is 12 months earlier than Labor would. Council’s widely-despised “Administrators” (burnt-out ALP Cronies from Sydney’s North Shore) have wreaked havoc and defecated from a great height upon the once-proud Gongians.

    Poor fellow, my city!

  8. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
    stanny,

    Any idiot can call a Liberal win. It takes a special type of idiot to call a Labor victory]

    Gold! 🙂

  9. Anyone think it’s a shame that only the ABC is doing proper coverage? Seven only giving it 2 hours and Nine only a hour.

    Just because it’s a trainwreck with an obvious outcome, we still deserve to see the axe fall.

  10. eddieward@49: You might be right about most of them, but Lylea McMahon lost preselection to union organiser Anna Watson, so I rather doubt she’ll be re-elected…

  12. Rebecca,

    Well spotted that Anna Watson is the ALP’s locally pre-selected candidate for Shellharbour—she quite likely will be the Illawarra’s only Labor MLA.

    Alas, I wish you were correct that the 2007 Mark Arbib and Sussex Street Parachutist, McMahon, ran for and lost preselection. That’s the comeuppance she would have richly deserved.

    After 4 years as a gormless member, McMahon proved herself a gutless quitter.

  14. I still think these polls are exaggerating the Liberals’ winning margin on Saturday.

    Remember Rudd’s 55+ polls all throughout 2007? What did that actually translate to at the ballot box? 52.7 in the end.

    Barry and his Coalition of happy clappers, racists and crazies will win big on Saturday, but I do not think he will get over 60 TPP as this poll suggests.

  16. Darren Laver, yes, The Narrowing.

    Don’t agree with your take on the numbers.

    There is one similarity though. The grudging born-to-rule mentality that prevents NSW ALP supporters acknowledging even the most obvious or anodyne fault re the NSW ALP is comparable to that of Lib supporters in 2007…

  17. Darren laver at 64

    This is not equivalent to Rudd in 2007. The polls have not moved in over 12 months. If anything they have gradually got worse for Labor. London to a brick it will be at least 60% to Libs. This is going to be a bloodbath.

    My prediction is ALP no more than 17 seats.

  19. During the 2007 federal campaign the polls narrowed considerably. There has been no such narrowing on this occasion, indeed the polls appear to be getting worse.

  20. Gus,

    Very clever of you to employ the passive voice in your adopted defence statement.

    By phrasing it in this way, you don’t specify who robbed us, thus spawning a plethora of plausible conspiracy theories as to the identity of the evildoers. 😉

  24. Sportsbet tonight is looking even worse for Labor: Liberals now favourites to win Granville.
    But not all good news for the Libs – looks like Blue Mountains could go to the independent.

  25. atticus, 55. why is bradbery vacuous? he is actually a live spark, and a quite progressive religious thinker. isn’t it good there is some viable non liberal choice in wollongong? like yourself i have not contributed for months to this blog, but guaging by quality of some contributions will not return again quickly. why bemoan the loss of labor notorieties, yet also look forward to the next council election? what lessons have been learnt from icac? what will stop yet more croneyism in local government. what should have happened in last three year was an elected council supervised by administrators. the legacy of poor labor representation in the illawarra will go on for years.

  26. btw, atticus, the mercury did not push bradbery into running. how can you be so free with whimsy? i can assure you the pastor would have considered this possibility from the first announcment of icac over three years ago. can assure you. what purpose do loose lips serve, even if they are the genre of the blog tabloid mill?

  27. I’m simply jumping with joy at the thought of Fatty O’Farrell having a majority of 50 seats – is there really any point in voting?
    OK, I don’t wanna get fined $55, but is that a great incentive to pointlessly exercise my democratic right on Saturday?

  29. Sure the ALP deserves to lose government, but by this much?
    We’ll have no opposition in New South Wales, at least for the next term of government.

  30. That is only true of the lower House Evan 14 the upper house will be very evenly split and the Libs will have to find outsid support. The Labor caucus will have plenty of talent led by their very able and macchiavelian number 1 ticket man Mr Erik Roozendahl.
    In any case the ALP Government have had very large majorities for the last three terms and have had a pretty good go it’s time for Labor to structurally rebuild instead of glossing over things and let somebody else a chance to stuff things up for once.

  31. [POLICIES in line with a Christian agenda will be easier to achieve under a Coalition government, the Reverend Fred Nile told an anti-abortion rally in Sydney. The Liberal MLC David Clarke joined the Christian Democratic Party leader, where they denounced the NSW Greens]

    I would prefer that the libs got a majority in the upper house in their own right than have to bargain with Nile.

    Thankfully the libs will get a majority in their own right in the lower house so there is no chance of Bradberry having any influence even if he does get elected.

  32. Gus

    We were robbed, $3 million NSWmen must have got Labor and Liberal confused, it is easy they both start with an L

    And since the ALP posters are in Green and Blue, their voter did not know where to vote for the red people

    I think you should take it to the supreme courts… then the international courts

  33. I did not think it was possible, but the last swing seems to be going to the Liberals.

    I was thinking that KKK would at least get some late swing to her

  34. there should be an ALP supporters’ revolt marching on Sussex Street demanding the party be returned to its members so it can be restored

  35. shellbell

    You wish!

    If the polls turn out to be correct there could be some sort of revolt but the right think they have a franchise on the show and will not give any ground out of good grace.

    Gonna be interesting though!

  36. The ALP could build something around Rees and Whan if they survive but who external to the parliament but of the ALP will assist? Who in recent NSW ALP history could be turned to to help drive them back up? There are some admirable Federal members from NSW but they will be busy but at state level? I would have thought part of the reason the conservatives have been out of NSW government for 16 years was the absence of any external assistance from conservatives.

  37. This story illustrates the gulf between the challenge facing NSW Labor and Qld Labor: hospital waiting time statistics are prepared on different bases, making comparison impossible. This isn’t trivial, as money is allocated on these figures;
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/waiting-lists-turn-to-statistical-soup-20110323-1c6uw.html

    This strikes me as typical of the classic response of bad governments: when there is a problem, massage the information, rather than fix it. Any Labor supporter who thinks that Saturday is about the personal popularity of the Premier, doesn’t get it. It is about failure to govern accountably and deliver services. They are dead, dead, dead.

  38. I agree with Steve (67) and also find the comparison with Rudd 07 very hard to believe. Rudd’s figures closed 3% from 55/45 to 52/48 during the 07 campaign. If Kennealy achieved the same amount of catch-up as Howard (and she doesn’t have the Murdoch media in her pocket) she would close from mid 60s against to low 60s against. This is not a criticism of Kenneally; the margin is beyond recovery. Talk of late swings at this point is getting desperate.

    I’d say Labor’s best possible result on Saturday would be 60/40 2PP, which will leave it with under 20 seats. More likely 62/38.

  39. [The ALP could build something around Rees and Whan if they survive but who external to the parliament but of the ALP will assist?]

    Agree on Rees and Whan but if the scenario of Robertson as leader is fulfilled we are going to get the closed shop all over again.

    Worth thinking about though because there are troubled times ahead for the NSW ALP.

  40. This irretrievably bad government has the best carbon reduction plan, according to federal opposition spokesman Greg Hunt.

    So good that the federal Coalition has adopted it as policy.

    I think you’ll find that many other policies of the hopeless Keneally government will be adopted by O’Farrell and his successors in the next decade or two.

  41. [Sue Fletcher is a friend of ours running in the upper house, the
    legislative council.
    Sue is on the ALP/Country Labor list, and would be a very worthy and
    effective state parliamentarian; for starters, she is a very honest
    and straight up person, and she gets things done for her community.
    She is a councillor on Tumbarumba Shire Council
    However, I think she is the best Labor candidate in this election, so
    I’m voting 1 for her.

    Fill in 15 boxes
    If you are voting below the line on the legislative council ballot,
    you must number from 1 to at least 15 boxes.
    You don’t need to number every one of the 100 or whatever, boxes. Just
    1 to 15.

    Go viral with Vote 1 Sue Fletcher]

    Just received this email – putting it up for consideration.

  42. Robertson as leader would be like having Chris Tavare as your opponent in a one-day cricket match. Whatever you do, dont get him out!

  43. If Sportsbet is correct, Whan and Borger will lose on Saturday, Rees will survive, and Labor will be reduced to a rump of 17-20 lower house seats.

  44. I dont know about the subject matter, but can the government appoint an opposition member as a minister? BOF should ask Whan to stay on if he wins as an emergency services minister.

  48. I just got a *hand written* letter (in pen! handwriting!) from one of my neighbours personally urging me to vote for Kevin Greene here in Oatley. I suspect it’s the guy at the top of my street, he’s the one with the signs.

    Ok I must admit I’m touched.

  50. Sertse @ 98

    [I just got a *hand written* letter (in pen! handwriting!) from one of my neighbours]

    . . . did it have authorised by Daryl Melham, in minute print at the bottom?

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