Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Morgan has published results from a phone poll of around 520 respondents, from which the only conclusion that can be safely drawn is that if you conduct small-sample polls you get erratic results. Whereas last week’s survey gave the Coalition a thumping 56-44 lead – about 2 per cent above the overall trend – this week it has it at 51-49, which is about 3 per cent below it. As always, I’m using the two-party figure which apportions minor party and independent preferences according to the results of the previous election, rather than how respondents allocated them. Labor’s primary vote this time is 35.5 per cent rather than 31.5 per cent, the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent rather than 47.5 per cent, and the Greens are 12 per cent rather than 10 per cent.

Whereas last week’s poll had opposition to the carbon tax at 57-33, this time it’s 54-38 – which is still quite a lot worse for the government than the 48-35 and 49-38 results from Essential Research over consecutive weeks. Last week Morgan found 72 per cent believing the Prime Minister had broken an election promise with only 19 per cent believing otherwise – this week the figures are 68 per cent and 23 per cent. Support for Tony Abbott’s promise to rescind the legislation is essentially unchanged, with 44 per cent (steady) in favour and 46 per cent (up one) against.

Morgan has also published phone poll figures on nuclear energy, and even though this one too is from Wednesday and Thursday evenings, for some reason the sample is 635 rather than 523. Fifty-nine per cent support the export of uranium for peaceful purposes with 34 per cent opposed, though it seems for many “peaceful purposes” doesn’t include nuclear power: with that qualification, only 44 per cent were supportive with 50 per cent opposed. Sixty-one per cent say they are opposed to the development of nuclear power plants in Australia with only 34 per cent supportive: figures provided from a poll in September 1979 are provided, showing 52 per cent support and 35 per cent opposition. Forty-nine per cent don’t believe other countries should build nuclear power plants either, against 37 per cent who believe they should.

UPDATE (Monday): Essential Research has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Essential have also thrown Tony Abbott a curve ball by asking respondents where they believe he stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed the Coalition opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it didn’t and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is perfectly evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

GROUP SUBSCRIPTIONS UPDATE: We have now cleared 50 takers for our Crikey group subscriptions offer, so anyone else who wants to take part can now rest assured they can land themselves a year’s subscription (or an additional year on top of the one you’ve already paid for if you’re a subscriber already) for the outstanding price of $65. If you want in, drop a line to Jade Butler at jbutler@crikey.com.au.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,249 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. what was ulman like tonight, he was switiched in favour of touring car racing, in adelaide in the wet much more exciting.

  2. No David – Jenny Macklin is a failure no doubt because both she and those above her cannot generate any new ideas to meet entrenched problems. She has been constantly criticised on Crikey (http://www.crikey.com.au/topic/jenny-macklin/). Alice Springs is a disaster with no relief in sight. The exodus from Yuendumu was a national shame. The ALP’s failure to mention indigenous affairs in the last election and its failure to promote for election anyone of indigenous backgound were reflections of its level of interest. If Abbott gets indigenous issues back on the agenda, whether his motives are malign or benign, well and good. I would have thought it would be a gift for the ALP which thinks, maybe wrongly, that it is the party for indigenous people.

  3. jv,

    Chris Bowen and the government never stated that all AS would be bought on shore.

    What Mr Bowen has stated time aftet time is the governments policy is to remove women and children from detention and he has given a time line of end June and my understanding is this well underway.

    You must have misinterpreted government policy.

  4. Ugh, no. Sorry. Just can’t stomach Pyne and Milne in the same show. And they are sat next to each other!

    *switches to Fatal Attraction*

  5. [confessions
    Posted Monday, March 21, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink
    Ugh, no. Sorry. Just can’t stomach Pyne and Milne in the same show. And they are sat next to each other!

    *switches to Fatal Attraction*]

    thats a good movie i think from memory think i will join you.

    fatal attraction there must be an omen that some where, re qt and the quests

    but cannot quite think about it may be finns can come up with something.

  6. [Next gone was Ewan Jones, followed quickly by Sophie Mirabella. Absolutely no one cared that the Member for Indi would be absent for an hour. Many wanted longer.]
    From Grog tonight.

  7. *ah yes . but i thought it was the national ART gallery.

    mmm but if she is there how can she see what happends.

    i suppose the chatter on the bus will be very enlightening, or May be not.

    make sure your mole tells them all about the big pension rises

  8. Shellbell since when has crikey been the last word on this or any other topic. I repeat did you hear Ms Macklin in QT today? If not check it out. You seem to have a personal issue with Minister Macklin, yes? spit it out brother.

  9. no vp

    we would very much like to get over to the war memorial area the first ww new photographic section.
    they how have my great uncles photo up I would love to see it it was handed to me just a few years ago, and i saw an add in the paper about photos had his copied and put on a disc. better still would love to go to France where he is buried,

  10. my say

    will do

    ps she hopes to wander off quietly

    the ANG is about a kiliometre away

    easy stroll for a “walker”

    nb she did the tassie walk last month

    lake thingrybob

  11. [ABCnewsIntern ABCnewsIntern
    Pyne will whine with sneering Devine, we’re going to need another bottle of… BATTERY ACID. #qanda #qandapoetry
    10 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]

  12. my say,

    The ANG is wonderful. Come here for one of their special exhibitions and stay another day for the standing exhibitions.

    And if you come here be sure to let me know. Accommodation and food at our place.

  13. [Doyley

    Posted Monday, March 21, 2011 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    jv,

    Chris Bowen and the government never stated that all AS would be bought on shore.

    What Mr Bowen has stated time aftet time is the governments policy is to remove women and children from detention and he has given a time line of end June and my understanding is this well underway.

    You must have misinterpreted government policy
    ]

    He believed a bullshit story published in the West.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/9043657/asylum-seekers-taken-to-mainland-in-new-policy/

    Written by the State political reporter to help the WA Libs complain how Northam will be the dumping ground.

  14. Doyley didn’t I hear somewhere today Kevin Rudd suggest, as FA Minister, he had a surprise in a couple of weeks or so for the grossly unimportant Morisson?

  15. vp but you dont know me i may be a dreaful guest. love to.

    confession we only one digital tv i checked the old channels in here no luck
    and oh is insistant he want s to see pyne just for fun.

  16. fox tell now you tell me i in there saying come on chn 406 he says, well 406 nothing happend, well i said you have nt been putting all the channels in then

    no he said must be something wrong with the batteries, i want tell him its a fox

  17. Frank,

    Thanks for that link. Saw that story and just flicked it as rubbish at the time.

    David,

    @3078,

    That was the impression I got from his statement today. I would not be surprised if it was a policy issue that would bite Morrison on the bum.

    Kevin seemed very determined today and it will be interesting to see what develops.

Comments are closed.

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