GhostWhoVotes reports the first carbon tax Newspoll has Labor receiving roughly the expected hit on voting intention, with a double dose for Julia Gillard personally. Labor’s vote has dived six points to 30 per cent, with the Coalition up four to 45 per cent and – intriguingly – the Greens up two to 15 per cent. The Coalition two-party lead of 54-46 compares with 50-50 a fortnight ago. An even bigger sting for Julia Gillard comes with a finding that Kevin Rudd leads her as best person to lead the ALP 44 per cent to 37 per cent, and a 23-point reversal in her net approval rating: approval down 11 points to 39 per cent, disapproval up 12 to 51 per cent. Funnily enough, these are exactly the same as the figures for Tony Abbott, who is respectively up one and up two. After a strong showing a fortnight ago, Gillard has lost eight points on preferred prime minister to 45 per cent and Abbott is up five to 36 per cent. For all that, a substantial 42 per cent profess themselves in favour of a price on carbon, with 53 per cent opposed – although the figures are respectively down five and up four on November. Full tables here.
UPDATE: James J points out in comments that this is Labor’s worst primary vote in Newspoll history. The previous record of 31 per cent came in August 1993, shortly after a Labor government broke a pre-election promise on tax. However, this was in an age when there was no Greens scooping up 15 per cent of the vote and feeding three-quarters of it back as preferences.
UPDATE 2: While I’m here, I’ll repost what I said about today’s Essential Research poll, which got buried a few posts back. The first Essential result taken almost entirely after the carbon tax announcement has the Coalition opening up a 53-47 lead. Considering Labor went from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind on the basis of last week’s polling, half of which constituted the current result, that’s slightly better than they might have feared. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 10 per cent.
Further questions on the carbon tax aren’t great for Labor, but they’re perhaps at the higher end of market expectations with 35 per cent supporting the government’s announcement and 48 per cent opposed. Fifty-nine per cent agreed the Prime Minister had broken an election promise and should have waited until after the election, while 27 per cent chose the alternative response praising her for showing strong leadership on the issue. Nonetheless, 47 per cent support action on climate change as soon as possible, against only 24 per cent who believe it can wait a few years and 19 per cent who believe action is unnecessary (a figure you should keep in mind the next time someone tries to sell you talk radio as a barometer of public opinion). There is a question on who should and shouldn’t receive compensation, but I’d doubt most respondents were able to make much of it.
Tellingly, a question on Tony Abbott’s performance shows the electorate very evenly divided: 41 per cent are ready to praise him for keeping the government accountable but 43 per cent believe he is merely obstructionist, with Labor-voting and Coalition-voting respondents representing a mirror image of each other. Twenty-seven per cent believe independents and Greens holding the balance of power has been good for Australia against 41 per cent bad, but I have my doubts about the utility of this: partisans of both side would prefer that their own party be in majority government, so it would have been good to have seen how respondents felt about minority government in comparison with majority government by the party they oppose.
[The truly funny thing is that the Green supporters here just can’t accept it.]
2% rise in support to 15%
damn
shoulda been 20%
🙁
[Gusface
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 11:37 pm | Permalink
jas
its atch sikk em frank
HTH
ps
STFU works real well
]
Erm, the plugin which bears it’s name is not permited to be mentioned here see :
As per point 13 of the Moderation Guidelines:
[13.Those of you who insist on using the STFU facility are not allowed to crap on about it. In particular, you may not make self-indulgent announcements about who you have chosen to put there.]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/comment-moderation-guidelines/
all good
this will be the making of JG
a strong point of differentiation between the parties and a chance for the pm to stand firm
Thatcher launched off a 14 % poll defecit to win in 1982
Gary@34
That’s the sort of thing you were saying about the PV in the days before Rudd was knifed. Gillard better get out the kevlar.
jas
@38
why so sad?
[They’re proping up a failing government.
Do Labor dare replace Julila?]
It’s not and no.
[Gary, I have something to write about now]
At the moment.
MrDenmore So #Newspoll finds we prefer a govt of climate deniers, racists, agrarian socialists, religious nutters and tea partiers. NZ looks good..
[the Coalition is still the OPPOSITION.]
Hey SK – the OPPOSITION is travelling pretty well. So far the score is:
1) 1 three-term lead for the ALP reduced to a 50-50 hung parliament – CHECK
2) 1 highly popular Prime Minster’s career arseholed, with infighting and backstabbing characterising the ALP-CHECK
3) 1 moderatly talented replacement PM duped into supporting a dud tax on the premis it will save the planet – CHECK
4) 1 collapse in primary support to the lowest levels recorded by Newspoll – CHECK!
Not long to go now, SK, Frank, et al, better bunker down, stock up on canned food, its going to be a long winter
The other constant refrain you hear on talkback radio: I didn’t vote for Rudd, but at least he didn’t go to the 2007 election on a lie.
That’s Julia’s real problem, the perception that she was loose with the truth.
More destructive to Labor than any scare campaign Abbott can mount on rising electricity prices.
The Newspoll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/newspoll-110308.pdf
[That’s the sort of thing you were saying about the PV in the days before Rudd was knifed. Gillard better get out the kevlar.]
There is absolutely no way JG will be going anywhere. They’ve tried that once but not again, as much as you’d like to see it.
[Mr Squiggle
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
the Coalition is still the OPPOSITION.
Hey SK – the OPPOSITION is travelling pretty well. So far the score is:
1) 1 three-term lead for the ALP reduced to a 50-50 hung parliament – CHECK
2) 1 highly popular Prime Minster’s career arseholed, with infighting and backstabbing characterising the ALP-CHECK
3) 1 moderatly talented replacement PM duped into supporting a dud tax on the premis it will save the planet – CHECK
4) 1 collapse in primary support to the lowest levels recorded by Newspoll – CHECK!
Not long to go now, SK, Frank, et al, better bunker down, stock up on canned food, its going to be a long winter
]
and what were the Figures when Alan Carpenter announced the “Unlosable Election” again ?
Mr Squiggle, stop picking on Kiddo. Go and pick somebody your own size, she is too big for you.
Hear, Hear Evan. A wide open opportunity. An imperfect market mechanism, if the world is truly ending with Anthropogenic Climate Change, ought to have been better than none. Politics =1, Planet = 0. 🙁
It is also rich for the Greens to be waxing lyrical about territorial powers through executive powers when, arguably, at the birthplace of the Greens, in the height of the proposed Franklin over Gordon Dam, Bob Brown himself was more than happy to use those powers to achieve his own ends.
If the process is important you need to cop it on the chin if its a decision you don’t like regardless. I see a lot of hypocrisy from the Deep Left lately. Any opinion is OK to have as long as it’s mine, right?
[That’s Julia’s real problem, the perception that she was loose with the truth.]
Sorry but this is BS. The tax is the story not the lie.
Gary: believe me, there will be some of them dumb enough to be pushing for Shorten as Labor leader, including Shorten himself. 🙂
Julia is enough of a liability, but compared to Shorten…….she’s a worldbeater. 😀
[If the process is important you need to cop it on the chin if its a decision you don’t like regardless. I see a lot of hypocrisy from the Deep Left lately. Any opinion is OK to have as long as it’s mine, right?]
BP
as long as the process aint massaged
🙁
There seem to be some people here really enjoying this poll and not all of them are Liberals sadly.
Interesting that the highest number of those opposed to a Carbon Tax are 60+ – and guess which station they listen to ?
[and what were the Figures when Alan Carpenter announced the “Unlosable Election” again ?]
Yes, but you’ve assured us that Eric Ripper will win the next WA election, so I trust you implicitly. 🙂
GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 45 (-8) Abbott 36 (+5) #auspol
Dr Good@53
I hope you are right. But it remains to be seen if Gillard has the required Thatcher attributes (leaving aside her awful right agenda): strength, leadership and communication.
GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
The #Newspoll tables: http://bit.ly/h7DRAy #auspol
4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Gary, it’s both the tax and the lie. Real or fake Julia? Bold and the Beautiful don’t have as juicy stories as this
[70
evan14
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 11:47 pm | Permalink
and what were the Figures when Alan Carpenter announced the “Unlosable Election” again ?
Yes, but you’ve assured us that Eric Ripper will win the next WA election, so I trust you implicitly.
]
Tony Abbott was considered Unelectable – but he almost won in 2010.
So stick that in your pipe 🙂
[Gary: believe me, there will be some of them dumb enough to be pushing for Shorten as Labor leader, including Shorten himself.]
They may be silly but not suicidal. They know a change of leadership will mean no hope. If they stick to their guns they have time to turn this around. Did anyone really believe selling a tax would be popular?
[I hope you are right. But it remains to be seen if Gillard has the required Thatcher attributes (leaving aside her awful right agenda): strength, leadership and communication.]
Ha
JG will break thru
ps has the unmentionable one attacked you yet?
evan14@66
I’ll say. Give me Gillard over Shorten any time. But speculation about a change of leadership is premature really. Gillard has to be given time to take the CC debate by the scruff of the neck. Trouble is, a natural leader would already have done so.
Kevin Rudd must be loving this poll and why wouldn’t he?
Gary #76, Acting PM Swan said it’s not a tax.
It’s also not a Tuuumor 🙂
Hey do you know what?
They should put the carbon tax on petrol and use all the raised revenue on better greener public transport.
That will get your 20% support Facial.
It will also get the Greens in opposition in a Liberal government.
And I can go back to voting for who I did in the very first place 😯
*knock yourselves out*
[Kevin Rudd must be loving this poll and why wouldn’t he?]
Kevin Rudd get what he always wanted – UN SecGen.
[Gary, it’s both the tax and the lie. Real or fake Julia? Bold and the Beautiful don’t have as juicy stories as this]
We’ll see. Enjoy it while you can. Once the carbon tax is introduced the scare campaign will falter of that I have no doubt.
Mr Squiggle,
[Hey SK – the OPPOSITION is travelling pretty well. So far the score is:
1) 1 three-term lead for the ALP reduced to a 50-50 hung parliament – CHECK
2) 1 highly popular Prime Minster’s career arseholed, with infighting and backstabbing characterising the ALP-CHECK
3) 1 moderatly talented replacement PM duped into supporting a dud tax on the premis it will save the planet – CHECK
4) 1 collapse in primary support to the lowest levels recorded by Newspoll – CHECK!
Not long to go now, SK, Frank, et al, better bunker down, stock up on canned food, its going to be a long winter
]
All that hey Squiggle and you still record a fail. History will record that the Coalition still ran second, not that anyone except trivia experts will ever check.
get = will get
Gary 83, are they that suicidal?
The Greens are 15, Labor 30 Primary vote. I have never seen the Greens at exactly half the ALP primary vote before.
[Kevin Rudd must be loving this poll and why wouldn’t he?]
I’ll tell you why because Rudd has scruples. He knows that the job he loves doing now depends on his side being in government. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work that out.
On this happiest and joyful night, i will dream a little dream of me
Evan:
[That’s Julia’s real problem, the perception that she was loose with the truth.]
In all honesty it’s harder to get more clear cut than that. There are many on this site, who seem to me to mercilessly crucify Abbott for backflips and Howard for his famous/infamous “interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government” quote, espoused as a lie, when it pales into significance here.
Julia’s comment was:
1. A backdown on a guarantee in an election (if Howard’s “no GST” comment was a broken pledge then so was this, it cannot be had both ways)
2. Related to clear, Federal legislation likely to affect all Australians, so it was global in impact, high in impact and high in controversy.
3. Initially denied as a “tax” then admitted to be “very much like a tax”. This again goes to a lack of confidence about a previously held position.
4. A complete backflip with serious ramifications.
She cannot be this pragmatic and not pay a political price, it is just the way the game goes. What is a gamble is whether this ‘political chemotherapy’ will lance the tumour of a policy or whether it will kill the host too…. 🙁
[steve
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 11:54 pm | Permalink
The Greens are 15, Labor 30 Primary vote. I have never seen the Greens at exactly half the ALP primary vote before.
]
Pity Newspoll aren’t spliting the Lib/Nat Primary Vote.
The beauty of this is that you can’t put one ounce of blame on Kevin Rudd……it’s Julia’s baby now.
Wow, what vindication for the likes of Shorten, Arbib, Bitar, Farrell………..;)
Rudd’s reputation as a statesman is enhanced, you can’t say the same for some others in the high echelons of the Labor Party.
[Gary 83, are they that suicidal?]
It will be introduced and the fear campaign will ease.
The Finnigans 89, 😀
The Liberal fans just have to swallow their lumps. It will be some time before they can inflict SerfChoices on their grandkids.
[evan14
Posted Monday, March 7, 2011 at 11:55 pm | Permalink
The beauty of this is that you can’t put one ounce of blame on Kevin Rudd……it’s Julia’s baby now.
Wow, what vindication for the likes of Shorten, Arbib, Bitar, Farrell………..;)
Rudd’s reputation as a statesman is enhanced, you can’t say the same for some others in the high echelons of the Labor Party.
]
Your true colourts have been revealed.
You have now borrowed TP’s Broken Record.
Perhaps you and Him an both rock up at Menzies House for Re-Education 🙂
Gusface
Not that I’ve noticed.
John, I hope you’re here when the polls turn around before the next election old son. I won’t be holding my breath though.
I’m not worrying….yet. Labor can’t back down or change leaders or they are in the abyss.
No time for fair weather friends or waverers. Just keep plugging away.
Younger voters seem to be quiet and uninvolved, they are the ones Labor needs to get vocal on this. As to how to do that?.
I like Bluepills ‘Door in the face’ method, get everything out there at once.
A whack in the head for political apathy.
my 2cents 🙂
jv
i take your silence as a yes
🙁
democracy died from a thousand cuts