A thread for discussion of the Irish election, results from which should be through shortly. Commenter Oakeshott Country has passed on an exit poll which bears out expectations of an apocalyptic result for the ruling Fianna Fail party:
From Dublin:
An exit poll of 1200 nation wide – NOT RTE’s
Official Counting starts in 2 hours
Finn Gael – 29%
Labour – 22%
Sinn Fein – 15%
Fianna Fail – 11%
Ind – 10%
Green – 3%
The election is for Ireland’s lower house of parliament; its unelected upper house has only weak powers, similar to the House of Lords. Ireland’s head of state is an elected president whose functions are largely ceremonial an election for this position will be held in October. The electoral system for Ireland’s lower house is similar to that for Australia’s Senate and most state upper houses. However, the country is broken up into regions which variously elect between three and five members, so while the system is a kind of proportional representation, it is difficult for small parties to win seats.
RTE is reporting that FF has been wiped out in all the Dublin seats.
Rod Hagen ! – Enda Kenny has the map of Eire on his face!
50
Who make up the other 3?
Its a 5 seater.
The Ceanne Commahaile is automatically returned FG31%, FF20% SF20% Labour 16%
Sorry that is only after 1/3 of the boxes have been opened
So a property developer may top the poll in Wexford. Funny old world.
Aljazeera:
http://english.aljazeera.net//news/europe/2011/02/201122693814547476.html
Rathbaner RT @westernpeople: History could be made in Galway West with two Left candidates being elected for the first time #ge11 #gyw 40 seconds ago · reply
Follow the count live at RTE
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html
steve@54
Not quite the words I would have used !
The effect of the Irish Banks on banks in Berlin.
http://www.kathleenbarrington.blogspot.com/
53
But you said 20% was just a quota.
Ireland (like Australia) uses the Droop Quota not the Hare Quota.
Therefore a quota is 16.67% not 20%.
steve@59
Ta steve. And the *fat lady* still hasn’t finished singing either.
The following like appears in 60.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_Hare_and_Droop_quotas
If you cannot see it you need your eyes tested.
Paddy Power odds:
http://www.electionbetting.com/
pppolitics Paddy Power: Labour 40 or more seats cut from 6/5 from to 4/5. http://bit.ly/czVshh #ge11 25 seconds ago · reply
Irish Times seat projection: FG 72, Labour 38, FF 20, SF 15, Inds 11. Greens lose their six seats.
53 – I think if the CC’s is in a 5 seater, it reverts to 4 seats and a quota of 1/5 = 20%
End of the line:
LukeONeill If Sean Haughey loses his seat today it will be the first time in 54 years that there is no member of the Haughey family in the Dáil. #GE11 36 seconds ago · reply
In any case all boxes have been tallied and the figures are FG 32% SF20% FF18% Lab16%. I suspect that Adams is reasonably safe.
big_jim_dub Sinn Fein doing better than expected in Dublin #ge11 9 seconds ago · reply
Adams had some difficulty resigning his Westminster seat, as he had to do to be a candidate for the Dail. One resigns from the Commons by applying for the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead, nominal offices of profit under the Crown, but since Adams does not recognise the Crown he could not do this. So he simply wrote to the Speaker saying he had resigned. The Speaker might well have refused to accept this, which would have made Adams ineligible to stand for the Dail, but in a fine piece of British compromise he simply treated Adams’s letter as an application for the Manor of Northstead. There will now a by-election for West Belfast.
Adams looks like running second at this stage.
bmrusty75 RT @RTE_Elections: RT @RTElouth: Pundits predicting Fergus O’Dowd to top the poll with Gerry Adams taking second seat in #louth #ge11 19 seconds ago · reply
MattTheHack Only cert Fianna Fail seats are probabaly O’Cuiv and O’Dea, the rest are all under threat #ge11 25 seconds ago · reply
1 analyst on RTE claims FF will only win seats containing gaelic speaking areas – the far west and northwest
The Irish Times says FF’s Brian Lenihan will hold his seat in Dublin West.
A visit from the POTUS as well.
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Obama-visit-to-Ireland-is-confirmed-by-senior-White-House-source–116974513.html
MattTheHack Only cert Fianna Fail seats are probabaly O’Cuiv and O’Dea, the rest are all under threat #ge11 25 seconds ago · reply
It looks like Brian Cowen’s brother will top the poll in the family’s pocket borough of Laois-Offaly
Irish Times seat projection: Greens lose their six seats.
Greens are polling >5% in some Dublin electorates and SF are doing well and they are greenier in many respects thatn the Greens.
5% is nowhere near a quota. I agree that much of the Green vote has gone to SF.
Psephos, is it still possible for FG to win in its own right?
I’m afraid the RTE election website is an epic fail.
[Fine Gael’s director of elections Phil Hogan refuses to accept that an overall majority is now unlikely, insisting “everything is in play”.]
http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/election2011/liveblog/
Steve, it doesn’t seem likely, but I can’t find a site giving overall seat totals. “All politics is local” seems to be particularly apposite in Ireland.
I think you will find they are having an official lunch break in the tally room at present so not much is happening.
Der Spiegel:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,747467,00.html
The Irish Times says that FG still thinks an overall majority possible.
As Spiegel points out, there will be a lot of independent TDs, and FG may be able to cobble together a majority with their support, leaving Labour out. But that would be dangerous, because Labour would then be the official opposition and could seriously challenge FG at the next election if things are no better by then, as they may well not be. A coalition locks Labour into the painful policies Ireland will now be stuck with for years.
The last I saw FG were looking like winning 78 seats but they need 83 to govern in their own right.
Here’s an explanation as to why predicting seats on a National basis is very difficult if not impossible in Ireland.
http://politicalreform.ie/2011/02/25/predicting-transfers-by-kevin-cunningham-trinity-college-dublin/#more-2370
So it looks like 38% of the vote would give FG about 80 seats. So we will have watch closely if they are able to squeeze the extra few seats needed. It might just be an outside chance yet. Twitter was claiming bookies paying out on an FG/Lab win but I seriously doubt any payout before a clear result is known.
Thanks for that Steve, interesting.
*Signs off*
fionasmall RT @itelection: Labour’s national organiser Pat Magnier believes party will be in position to command six cabinet posts in a coalition with Fine Gael #ge11
Steve – the likes of Joe Costello have been saying no way to a coalition with the conservative Catholics of FG pointing to the fate of GP in ROI and the Cleggies in the UK
National Summary is here:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/index.html
RTEradio1 Michael Ahern (FF) has lost in Cork East seat after 29 years in the Dáil. #ge11 23 seconds ago · reply
archimedesuk RT @Niaccurshi: Fascinating to see such change happening for Ireland. Apparently this kind “throwing out” of government isn’t possible without FPTP. #ge11 33 seconds ago · reply
Well it looks like Ireland have just elected a leader with all the charisma of George dubya Bush:
colmbuckley Oh My Gawd. Our presumed next Taoiseach is the most boring man in the universe. I can feel parts of my brain dying as I listen to him. #ge11 18 seconds ago · reply
Knowing little about Irish politics can some one tell me which party or parties formed the last government?
Gary
The two that got flogged today. FF/Grn
Bob Brown this morning answered the “Why did JG lie” question very well. This numbers in this parliament meant no party held a majority so negotiation had to take place, ie give and take on all sides. He even said that Abbott made it clear he was prepared to give and take on certain policies. There you go.
Sorry wrong thread. Too early.