Irish election thread

A thread for discussion of the Irish election, results from which should be through shortly. Commenter Oakeshott Country has passed on an exit poll which bears out expectations of an apocalyptic result for the ruling Fianna Fail party:

From Dublin:
An exit poll of 1200 nation wide – NOT RTE’s
Official Counting starts in 2 hours
Finn Gael – 29%
Labour – 22%
Sinn Fein – 15%
Fianna Fail – 11%
Ind – 10%
Green – 3%

The election is for Ireland’s lower house of parliament; its unelected upper house has only weak powers, similar to the House of Lords. Ireland’s head of state is an elected president whose functions are largely ceremonial – an election for this position will be held in October. The electoral system for Ireland’s lower house is similar to that for Australia’s Senate and most state upper houses. However, the country is broken up into regions which variously elect between three and five members, so while the system is a kind of proportional representation, it is difficult for small parties to win seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

149 comments on “Irish election thread”

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  1. Its a 5 seater.
    The Ceanne Commahaile is automatically returned FG31%, FF20% SF20% Labour 16%
    Sorry that is only after 1/3 of the boxes have been opened

  2. Rathbaner RT @westernpeople: History could be made in Galway West with two Left candidates being elected for the first time #ge11 #gyw 40 seconds ago · reply

  3. 53

    But you said 20% was just a quota.

    Ireland (like Australia) uses the Droop Quota not the Hare Quota.

    Therefore a quota is 16.67% not 20%.

  4. End of the line:

    LukeONeill If Sean Haughey loses his seat today it will be the first time in 54 years that there is no member of the Haughey family in the Dáil. #GE11 36 seconds ago · reply

  5. Adams had some difficulty resigning his Westminster seat, as he had to do to be a candidate for the Dail. One resigns from the Commons by applying for the Chiltern Hundreds or the Manor of Northstead, nominal offices of profit under the Crown, but since Adams does not recognise the Crown he could not do this. So he simply wrote to the Speaker saying he had resigned. The Speaker might well have refused to accept this, which would have made Adams ineligible to stand for the Dail, but in a fine piece of British compromise he simply treated Adams’s letter as an application for the Manor of Northstead. There will now a by-election for West Belfast.

  6. Adams looks like running second at this stage.

    bmrusty75 RT @RTE_Elections: RT @RTElouth: Pundits predicting Fergus O’Dowd to top the poll with Gerry Adams taking second seat in #louth #ge11 19 seconds ago · reply

  7. MattTheHack Only cert Fianna Fail seats are probabaly O’Cuiv and O’Dea, the rest are all under threat #ge11 25 seconds ago · reply

    It looks like Brian Cowen’s brother will top the poll in the family’s pocket borough of Laois-Offaly

  8. Irish Times seat projection: Greens lose their six seats.

    Greens are polling >5% in some Dublin electorates and SF are doing well and they are greenier in many respects thatn the Greens.

  9. As Spiegel points out, there will be a lot of independent TDs, and FG may be able to cobble together a majority with their support, leaving Labour out. But that would be dangerous, because Labour would then be the official opposition and could seriously challenge FG at the next election if things are no better by then, as they may well not be. A coalition locks Labour into the painful policies Ireland will now be stuck with for years.

  10. So it looks like 38% of the vote would give FG about 80 seats. So we will have watch closely if they are able to squeeze the extra few seats needed. It might just be an outside chance yet. Twitter was claiming bookies paying out on an FG/Lab win but I seriously doubt any payout before a clear result is known.

  11. fionasmall RT @itelection: Labour’s national organiser Pat Magnier believes party will be in position to command six cabinet posts in a coalition with Fine Gael #ge11

  12. Steve – the likes of Joe Costello have been saying no way to a coalition with the conservative Catholics of FG pointing to the fate of GP in ROI and the Cleggies in the UK

  13. archimedesuk RT @Niaccurshi: Fascinating to see such change happening for Ireland. Apparently this kind “throwing out” of government isn’t possible without FPTP. #ge11 33 seconds ago · reply

  14. Well it looks like Ireland have just elected a leader with all the charisma of George dubya Bush:

    colmbuckley Oh My Gawd. Our presumed next Taoiseach is the most boring man in the universe. I can feel parts of my brain dying as I listen to him. #ge11 18 seconds ago · reply

  15. Bob Brown this morning answered the “Why did JG lie” question very well. This numbers in this parliament meant no party held a majority so negotiation had to take place, ie give and take on all sides. He even said that Abbott made it clear he was prepared to give and take on certain policies. There you go.

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