Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face

Roy Morgan has published two sets of poll results, one a face-to-face poll combining a fortnight’s worth of its regular weekend polling, the other a small sample phone poll targeting 519 respondents. Neither are good for Labor: the face-to-face poll has their two-party lead on 51-49, using the more reliable method of distributing minor party preferences as per the previous election, while the phone poll has the Coalition leading 53-47. Given the face-to-face series’ normal lean to Labor, that’s a below par result for them, although it’s essentially unchanged on a fortnight ago. Labor is up half a point to 39.5 per cent, the Coalition is steady on 43 per cent and the Greens are down a point to 11.5 per cent, with Labor down half a point on two-party to 51 per cent. The phone poll has Labor on 36 per cent and the Coalition on 45.5 per cent: very unusually for a phone poll, it has the Greens vote on single figures at 9.5 per cent, comparing with 13 per cent in Newspoll and 12 per cent in the previous week’s Nielsen. The phone poll is more obviously unhappy for Labor, but with a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent a grain of salt is required. Taken together though, they constitute evidence Labor is still bumping along below 50-50, rather than popping above it as Essential Research and Newspoll suggested.

The phone poll also inquired into leadership approval, and it turns up an anomaly in showing a disastrous plunge for Tony Abbott which isn’t reflected in voting intention. Abbott’s disapproval is up ten points on three weeks ago to 56 per cent, seven points higher than it was in Newspoll. Most of this came at the expense of “can’t say”, with approval down a relatively modest three points from 39 per cent to 36 per cent. Since early December, Morgan has had Abbott’s net approval go from plus 11 to minus 20. Allowing for the very small samples, the gender gap has blown wide open: where three weeks ago Abbott’s net approval was minus seven among men and minus six among women, the respective figures are now minus 13 and minus 28. However, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are less good than in Newspoll. Her approval rating is 46 per cent (four points lower than Newspoll and level with Morgan’s previous figure), her disapproval 40 per cent (a point higher than Newspoll and two points lower than the last Morgan), and her lead as preferred prime minister is 51-35 (compared with 53-31 in Newspoll and 49-36 in the last Morgan).

The phone poll also asked about preferred leaders for the two major parties, and it backs up Essential Research in finding Julia Gillard performing unconvincingly relative to Kevin Rudd, whom she now leads as preferred Labor leader by just 29 per cent to 27 per cent. This compares with 31-26 last time, and 52-21 a month after she took the job. Given that Gillard’s current net approval ratings compare with minus 19 for Kevin Rudd in his last Newspoll as prime minister, it would seem his absence has made hearts grow fonder. For Tony Abbott the situation is even worse: only 20 per cent favour him as Liberal leader (down four from last time), with Malcolm Turnbull up six points to 34 per cent and Joe Hockey up one to 26 per cent. Abbott enthusiasts would point to the fact that Turnbull is particularly favoured, and Abbott particularly disfavoured, among Labor and Greens voters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,972 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition phone poll; 51-49 to Labor face-to-face”

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  1. ML I have no doubt you have said all of those things. And you will keep saying them for as long as it is seen as a way to gain political advantage.

    What you miss is that progressives see virtue in the ability to adapt to meet the current needs of the situation. Conservatives see it as a weakness. And she did say she would put a price on Carbon, didn’t she? And she delivering on that isn’t she?

  2. Sounded to me a while ago like Julia said:

    “shat on the opposition benches”

    Bit of a slip, but she was pretty much on a roll! πŸ™‚ She is doing well today. πŸ™‚

  3. Scorpio, thats exactly what I am talking about. Have you heard of the “Left Behind” series? Wait for the rapture rather than live for today. As a committed Christian I am ashamed of it.

  4. [#firstdogonmoon |

    “And get a mandate for your bad tax” and with that, Joe Hockey explodes covering everyone with pastry cream! #qt]

    Well that gave me a laugh, anyway.

  5. And I would be interested to hear your opinion, ML, on TAbbot’s statement that they will ditch the plan if they win an election. He knows he can’t do that without the Senate without a double dissolution and a landslide. That is two elections.

  6. [because the fundamentalists are only here for a while until going up to their heaven.]

    Plus, they think their God will save the planet. They should remember the story of Sodom & Gemorrah!

  7. lizzie,

    Looks like I got the times wrong. They only went for 25 (10 TA, 5 JH, 10 JG) minutes on moving the suspension of standing orders. I think my times were for an MPI.

  8. [Yep. Its rare when both sides of the political spectrum are ecstatic with the result, so lets enjoy all being happy.]
    If you’re happy with opposition that’s great. May you be happy with it after the next election too.

  9. blue_green,

    [Scorpio

    Another censure motion. ]

    Well that sure beats holding the Government to account with constructive and probing questions.

    I don’t think I have heard any of those since Labor was last in opposition! πŸ˜‰

  10. [Gweneth
    Posted Monday, February 28, 2011 at 3:11 pm | Permalink
    ML I have no doubt you have said all of those things. And you will keep saying them for as long as it is seen as a way to gain political advantage.]

    MOd L
    so you have been on this earth for some time and YOU have never changed your mind ????
    now dont say well i am not the PM as i would expect a lib to say
    Well being the PM is a very good reason for changing your mind.
    we all learn with new testoments on subjects and then realise a change of mind may be in the best interstest.
    MUMS do that every day.

  11. jenauthor,

    [Plus, they think their God will save the planet. They should remember the story of Sodom & Gemorrah!]

    Pass me the salt please! πŸ˜‰

  12. As someone on here said a few days ago, I think the reason for the censure motions is that the opposition get to sit on the other benches for a short while!

  13. Currently watching QT in 1/2 hr delay and it seems to me the only attack the LNP have is to attack labor over the no CT quote. Thats going to wear a bit thin after 2 1/2 years I think.

    If 52-48 is the 2pp in essential poll thats to be expected and I can’t see it getting any worse than that.

  14. Well I think Tony lost that one and what a great tactic by the PM to stop question time. It shows the opposition up as a rabble, no more, no less.

  15. [Plus, they think their God will save the planet. They should remember the story of Sodom & Gemorrah!

    Pass me the salt please!
    ]
    Isn’t that how they get rid of leeches?

  16. [Well that sure beats holding the Government to account with constructive and probing questions.]
    That worked out so well for Turnbull and Grechgate that Abbott has sworn off that approach.

  17. Puff

    The only good thing to come out of the bullbutter from TA and JH was the opportunity to give the PM the response that she did. It was calm, measured, to the point and showed leadership and not rabid ranting.

    It will be interesting to see how it is spun in OO and their ABC.

  18. Why are the opposition running useless censure motions that are just going to be defeated? Maybe they are trying to stop the government from answering their questions, considering it is a wipe out for the Oppos most of the time.

  19. so what where the number and did katter vote.

    the ess, i think william said that they did this over one week when they usually do it over two so how can you read that then
    perhaps they should stick to their formula?

  20. [#katinacurtis | 33 seconds ago

    It isn’t participatory? RT @DanielleCronin: Man ejected from public gallery after yelling ‘mr speaker, my question is to the prime minister’]

    This is a much better effort than her fashion editor effort last week! πŸ˜‰

    Would have been funny to watch!

  21. Ah.. a little lovein on the Shadow Bench – Bishop hugging BK’s dreamboat!

    What are the pieces of blue paper the Oppn is handing around?

  22. [Plus, they think their God will save the planet. They should remember the story of Sodom & Gemorrah!]
    These are the same people who take the story of Noah literally.

  23. jenauthor. Thanks for that – I didn’t see him. Does this suggest that he is not in agreement with the proposed policy or has he said that already and I’ve missed it? (Senior moment here πŸ™‚ )

  24. [There is no heat in this debate. Carbon tax stories are running not on page one, but on page seven. People are over it.]
    I agree.

  25. Space Kidette,

    [Isn’t that how they get rid of leeches?]

    And people that face the wrong way when it’s not advisable to do so.

    Memo, Tony Abbott! πŸ˜‰

  26. They have a debate about changing your mind, “turncoating” and stretching the truth, and it’s Hockey who has the supporting role? Unbelievable.

  27. [It will be interesting to see how it is spun in OO and their ABC.]

    AlanM – unfortunately we know how it will be shown. He will be seen first with positive narrative and the PM will be shown for 2 seconds saying she was ‘forced to defend lying’.

    ABC will be the forerunner.

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