GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has a poll of state voting intention which backs up the recent Essential Research poll (which Antony Green reckons should have been 62.5-37.5 on two-party preferred, contrary to the 59-41 headline figure) rather than the apocalyptic 66-34 results recently turned in by Nielsen and Galaxy. The poll has the Labor on 23 per cent and the Coalition on exactly double that (how bizarre that you can say that’s a relatively good result for Labor), respectively down a point and up a point on last time. But Kristina Keneally has suffered yet another personal approval plunge – down five on approval to 30 per cent and up eight on disapproval to 57 per cent. Barry O’Farrell is up one on approval to 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 35 per cent, and leads as preferred premier 47 per cent (up seven) to 32 per cent (down three).
An interesting way to view this election is is to look at the battleground seats
Bathurst, East Hills, Blue Mountains, Coogee, Kogarah, Oatley Londonderry, Mulgoa,
Riverstone, Drummoyne, strathfield, Monaro, Gosford, wyong, Kiama, Maitland….. there are probably more I haven’t listed. These seats are mostly Labor with a Margin of 10% or greater. or have special candidate factors inplay
So what is the electoral logic of making this election campaing about the carbon tax as O’Farrell has now indicated he will do? He is way ahead in every poll. Support for a carbon tax appears to be around 50/50 at the moment although that can change. Why would pissing off people that want action on climate change be a good move?
O’Farrell is already shaping up to me as being nothing more than a booster for the federal libs. Apparently all of NSW’s problems will just be magically solved once he wins and he can concentrate on playing federal games.
Pathetic. NSW needs better than this.
@52 ……. the odds are the federal Labor Govt will be returned with a better Alp vote in NSW………. What was The Debham spoof cartoon……. “loving John Howard’s not a sin ”
except he is tied to some one worse……. Mr Abbott
Mithrandir (52) Yes indeed, NSW does need better than its present miserable government. You must be part of the born to rule brigade of the NSW ALP which lurk hereabouts. Your post shapes up as nothing more than a booster for the fabled party of compassion and social justice, aka Australian Labor Party.
Hello SpinsUp. Where did I advocate a vote for Labor? I am sick of the whole politics in NSW. The Coalition are pretty much just more of the same. I hope I’m wrong but won’t be surprised if nothing gets better under a Coalition government.
Also, the party of compassion and social justice would be the Greens 😛
interestingly
add climate change to morrison
the fibs are really aiming for the ole defeat from the jaws of victory
Has Barry O’Farrell made a mistake in being seen to be consulting with the Senco bloke and Max Moore-Wilton?
Can he get away with saying they are looking to increase the PS and not decrease it?
If there are good Federal Labor pollies in some of the electorates would their help be beneficial to the State candidate or not?
Centrebet odds for individual electorates:
Pretty dire for Labor, except that they’re favoured to retain Toongabbie(Nathan Rees) and Kogarah(Cherie Burton).
Verity Firth and Carmel Tebbut look to be at long odds to defeat their Green opponents.
@59 I think also favourite for Strathfield
Ian Cohen says that Green voters should preference Labor in the LegCo.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/28/3150298.htm?site=sydney
@61…….. of course this is obvious……… why cannot the green party organisation
see this?
Today’s update(odds) – Little change, although Rees is firming in Toongabbie, and Port Macquarie is essentially a tie between the Independent MP & the National Party person.
Evan – I have not had a chance to see the odds but if the bookmakers are right in every seat what is the overall outcome (if you know)? I think Rees deserves re-election.
Interesting that the ALP election ads are nearly all negative, while the Liberal ones are all happiness and sunshine (at least this is my impression from the ones I have seen so far). I suspect this is a good idea- highlight the dark past and the bright future!
KK started with the 4 point ‘LAW law’ election add which was shot down by her own side (Robertson) pretty soon afterwards with the retort that you can’t legislate these things (speaking about other ‘things’ of course, but still didn’t help!)
[Interesting that the ALP election ads are nearly all negative]
I was going to say that that was because Labor’s only chance was to portray the opposition as more incompetent and corrupt than itself. Then I saw the cricket!
If Ireland can beat England, maybe NSW Labor has a chance. Perhaps a campaign theme of “Kiss me, I’m Labor” will work with enough voters. Other strategies might include:
– green and orange Labor how to vote cards marked “you too could be lucky”
– enough free Guiness handed out with how to vote cards to “sway” voters
– a promise of an Irish pub in every town and suburb – helps with the hoteliers association too!
– KK performing a few Riverdance numbers in her remaining media spots and daring Barry O’Farrell to follow suit.
– a warning not to vote for anyone named “O’Farrell”.
Dang, the leader of the Opposition is named O’Farrell! It may not work. Looks like the Liberals have thought of everything.