GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll has a poll of state voting intention which backs up the recent Essential Research poll (which Antony Green reckons should have been 62.5-37.5 on two-party preferred, contrary to the 59-41 headline figure) rather than the apocalyptic 66-34 results recently turned in by Nielsen and Galaxy. The poll has the Labor on 23 per cent and the Coalition on exactly double that (how bizarre that you can say that’s a relatively good result for Labor), respectively down a point and up a point on last time. But Kristina Keneally has suffered yet another personal approval plunge – down five on approval to 30 per cent and up eight on disapproval to 57 per cent. Barry O’Farrell is up one on approval to 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 35 per cent, and leads as preferred premier 47 per cent (up seven) to 32 per cent (down three).
but the alternative offered by O’Farrell is just as woeful.
Is there a 3rd option? Perhaps we better hope that the Greens get the BOP in the Upper House & a few lower house seats.
I’m with you, Evan.
There were almost no policies in OFs speech at the launch. And they had the RABBOTT spouting “this is a bad govt” line in his little cameo.
Surely, after so many years in the wilderness, they’d have a raft of good policies on offer?
But no. Anti-govt is basically all they can come up with.
I am just waiting for Fatty to get out on the beach with Tone in his blue budgies and frighten all the children.
Jen,
Agreed, but that is the correct course at this point. He will have 8 years to do whatever is needed to clean up the state, including unpopular things. The ALP would do exactly the same thing in his position!
The individual primaries for the Coalition parties are Liberals 40 (0) Nationals 6 (+1), 1261 voters were polled and it was done over the last two months.
[I am just waiting for Fatty to get out on the beach with Tone in his blue budgies and frighten all the children.]
.this is NOT the bit I was agreeing with by the way Jen!
NO MORE SPEEDOS PLEASE.
🙂
[I am just waiting for Fatty to get out on the beach with Tone in his blue budgies and frighten all the children]
Jen that would frighten everyone at the beach. He must not take Tone and green would look better on Fatty 😆
[evan14
Posted Tuesday, February 22, 2011 at 11:09 pm | Permalink
Carmel Tebutt won’t hold Marrickville, based on these polls.
Keneally will probably retain Heffron, but she’s done politically, at least in terms of state politics.
NSW Labor needs to retain the likes of David Borger, Nathan Rees and a backbencher named Andrew McDonald – good basis for rebuilding.]
You may not believe this but if I was in his seat I would actually vote ALP in NSW!!!!
I know Andrew and he is an officer and a gentleman.
O’Farrell ain’t dumb, he can remember what happened to Debnam in 2007.
Once Pete paraded around Bondi in the Speedos for the TV cameras, the Libs were done. 😉
According to Antony’s calculator, it equates to:
Coalition 63 seats
Labor 21 seats
Independents 2 seats
Greens 2 seats
Correction: 7 seats for the Independents.
I wonder if the full consequences for state Labor’s arrogance and incompetence are starting to sink in yet… 21 seats, in what is becoming a best case scenario for them. I wonder if they are content with with what they have done this term, because the result is the impending worst result for the Labor party in 100 years and reducing what is supposed to be the progressive side of politics to an irrelevant rump.
Indys – 7 seats? Yay!
[Indys – 7 seats? Yay!]
Unless they’re nutters. Indies don’t necessarily = good. However, if they aren’t delusional ideologues, then more power to them!
O’Farrell in speedos would probably save ALP 10 seats, so instead of having whinning Keanelly on TV, maybe the ALP should photoshop O’Farrell in speedo as the election campaign.
It is rare for an election to be fought by 2 opposition leaders, normally the incumbent can rely on their record, as well as attack the opposition, but then Keanelly record is a big problem
Indies won’t win 7.
I’m hoping The Greens can get 4 or 5 seats … In theory, most ALP voters in winnable seats ought to be putting us first.
Whilst the alternative will hardly the paragon of governments it will be wonderful to be shot of this arrogant, venal, no-talent mob.
Fran Barlow @ 15
[I’m hoping The Greens can get 4 or 5 seats]
I’m hoping they win one seat, Syndey. Then when the incoming government sacks the Sydney council we’ll be free of Clover and her bike tracks forever.
[I’m hoping The Greens can get 4 or 5 seats … In theory, most ALP voters in winnable seats ought to be putting us first.]
But Fran, that requires NSW State Labor to put the needs of progressive voters, policy and principles first, and we are talking about NSW State Labor! I agree though, they can’t say all this stuff about O’Farrell not being fit to lead, and then preference him ahead of Greens. I suppose they will call us consistency-nazis 🙂
jenauthor #1 and #1399 on newspoll thread. I infer you would like the NSW ALP returned. Which of their policies do you like and what parts of their track record would you rely upon to advocate to others to vote for them?
As for the poll, it actually looks pretty consistent with the previous ones. So really, O’Farrell just has to make sure he doesn’t say anything upsetting between now and election day to romp home. It almost doesn’t matter what he says at this point.
Is there an alternative to Keanelly who would be a more worthy candidate and willing to tap her on the shoulder? Alternatively, is there an alternative to O’Farrell willing to do the same thing on the Coalition side? Neither of the two fills me with much confidence.
17
The Greens are pro-bike lane.
What mekes you think that the incoming government will sack the SCC?
I’m starting to think the only thing the ALP can do now is “shock and awe” politics: remove the premier and the entirety of the senior cabinet.
They can spin a bottle to see which backbencher gets to be the saviour.
As a western Australian nothing will be funnier than watching you in nsw as a single party tory state. And the greens hope they enjoy it trying to make the hard left relevant when the hole centre left is completely irrelevant and the govt is debating (with itself) whether to adopt normal extreme right positions or I’d they should be looking for something even more extreme.
I think that another change of premier now would, if at all possible, only increase voter cynicism further and drop Labor’s vote even lower.
The only thing that could save the ALP in NSW right now is if Barry O is photograghed in bed with a Yak, some lubricant and ten feet of rubber tubing.
I mean, the Tory campaign is so lazy they are just copying everything from the US Republicans play book. NSW is in the red to the tune of 65 billion, so the Tories platform is to CUT taxes and to INCREASE spending. WTF?
Still, the odds are that Barry O will not be Premier by the end of the Tories first term as he would have been knifed by someone from the Libs “Taliban” faction (their term, not mine). Then watch all sorts of weird and wonderful legislation regarding social issues and morality come out of the woodwork. However, chances are that the average voter in NSW wont give a fetid rats arse as long as the transport system has been fixed and housing has become more affordable.
@20
O’Farrell could probably eat a baby on live television and still romp it home at this point
You seriously think liberals will take actual and effective action on transport and affordable housing! Why would they do that? No doubt they will cut property taxes and contribution levies but I have a bridge to sell you I you think that will help with affordable housing.
WeWantPaul
Because the ALP had done so well in those area?
Why do we think the Liberals can do better, because the ALP and their property development doners have proven that they can’t
Labor will do better than 23 seats……… could win 36 if everything went well
the independents could all be re elected as well. would be interesting……..
also the country areas will not swing much…………..
Mick,
[Labor will do better than 23 seats……… could win 36 if everything went well]
Betcha they don’t! I reckon anything over 20 is a great result. From 25% primary and with some seats in the 20%+ pendulum area under real threat of loss for ALP if they get to 36 seats KK should put her name up for sainthood- cos it’ll be a miracle.
Not sure whether you live in NSW, but the only people saying they are going to vote for the ALP are on this blog, so don’t be fooled. Out in voterville it aint bats, its machine guns at the ready.
I think the ALP will win between 25-35 seats. alot will depend on preferences, I think there will be at least three indis and maybe one or two more but unless something major happens between now and polling day this looks like being a massive landslide.
I don’t think the Greens will anything unless we count Clover Moore as a Green type Indie.
My response to ModLib is there is a large part of Western Sydney, the Hunter and the Illawarra that will stay with the ALP
One interesting Victorian result was found in the La Trobe Valley where the seat of Morwell gave the Nationals a massive TPP margin over 10% so maybe the Hunter and the Illawarra might swing.
25 seats would be considered a very good result for Labor, funnily enough, because at least they’d retain Nathan Rees, David Borger, Andrew McDonald, Virginia Judge – the basis of a functional opposition to the O’Farrell Government.
The polling must mean that many voters will choose not to vote Labor at the next NSW elections. Some may not have the willpower. The reality can lag the intent. It just means, though, that the election result won’t be as low as the lowest poll in the lead up to the election.
If the Libs keep playing small target and not making any election pledges, over the coming weeks their vote will drop I reckon.
Meanwhile the Labs should just admit that they have no chance of winning and run the line that the Libs will have control of both houses – so vote for us to keep a check on them. They will probably have a better chance of garnering votes that way. Their egos won’t let them do that though…
Mick Quinlivan – willing to put a case forward for the re-election of the ALP government? Anyone else willing to put the case forward?
Interesting campaign.
[A HARD-FOUGHT contest for Muslim votes is under way before the March 26 state election as the powerful Lebanese Muslim Association throws its support behind a swag of Liberal candidates in the Labor strongholds of southwestern Sydney, urging Muslim voters to punish the state Labor government for neglecting them.
The LMA has declared its backing for Liberal candidates in the safe Labor seats of Bankstown, Lakemba, Canterbury, Auburn, Liverpool and Granville, electorates where the proportion of Muslim voters is as high as 17 per cent.
LMA president Samier Dandan, an IT entrepreneur and onetime member of former prime minister John Howard’s Muslim reference group, says the ALP has betrayed Muslim voters by failing to deliver support or services in Sydney’s southwest.
“They have this perception that it’s a bunch of illiterate migrant factory workers and it’s easy to control their votes,” says Mr Dandan. “(We) have traditionally been Labor voters for many years, but when we look at what we’re getting back for it, there’s very little we can see.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/muslim-lobby-group-backs-libs-in-labor-strongholds/story-e6frgczx-1226010987975
Have the LMA forgotten the Libs silent endorsement of Cronulla already?
Rock and a hard place.
Pegasus
Thanks. That will put several quite safe seats at risk. If so, Antony’s election calculator could be about right, i.e. Labor down to 21 seats.
I think Scott Morrison and Bernadi might have dented O’Farrell’s hopes of winning Muslim votes in Western Sydney. 😉
Expect a swing to Labor in Bankstown, Liverpool and Lakemba.
frankie V, there might not be a swing to the ALP anywhere in the state, and that is worth betting on. the most likely swing is Maitland
The most likely swing to the ALP would be a small correction in Penrith given that the incumbent got 26.5% last time. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the status quo remained, I’ve heard from a couple of people that he’s pretty highly regarded internally.
Dovif: You think the ALP can hold Maitland?
I doubt it, and Robin Parker representing your side of politics is a quality candidate.
My point is that given how NSW is different to QLD & SA & WA… with a bigger number of reliable ALP seats. These opinion polls seem to to be just too good for the libs.
Who will win …… Drummoyne ? Oatley? Riverstone ? Mulgoa?……… I’m not sure
if all were held then my upper range projection would be more likely.
The question is whether there is a normal election or a Landslide.
@37…….. suspect this will not effect the result will Michael Hawatt win Lakemba? no
[frankie V, there might not be a swing to the ALP anywhere in the state, and that is worth betting on. the most likely swing is Maitland]
Dovif, this time we agree. I think your money is pretty safe. Labor is in damage control mode. Supporters might try to put on a brave face, but when you look at the polls, and their consistency, it is a done deal. A swing against a Labor incumbent of less than 5% will be a pretty good result on the night.
The only way I can conceive Labor coudl get a swing to it in a seat would be if they had an unusual local negative factor last time and the local MP had done a good job since. That is all.
Soc
one word
MORRISON
Mick I think the Liberals could win three or maybe four of the seats you mentioned
Drummoyne Oatley Riverstone Mulgoa
I live in Oatley and I think the Libs will win there. The Lib is active, (heck even my parents got a handshake from him!) but it seems Greene is a bit resigned.
It’s especially noticeable when you contrast it with the neighbouring seat of Kogarah where Cherie Burton appears to be fighting to the death. That one has a chance.
@48 thats what I mean……. If labor were to hold none of similar seats then probably below 30 if won all four I listed then heading towards 36. I’m unsure who will win such seats eg Kevin Greene has a big personal vote. He has won Lugarno in the past. no other Alp candidate in 30 or more years managed that. Will he retain the seat?