Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first Newspoll of the year offers more grim news for the government, with Labor’s primary vote down a further two points from the final poll of last year to 32 per cent and the Coalition up three to 44 per cent. No two-party result has yet been provided, but past experience suggests it will land at either 52-48 or 53-47 depending on rounding. This compares with 50-50 in the final Newspoll of last year. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The two-party result is 52-48, which probably flatters Labor a little due to rounding, while the Greens’ primary vote is steady on 14 per cent. Contrary to the findings of an Essential Research poll which gave Labor much better figures on voting intention, the poll also shows a fairly solid majority supporting the government’s proposed flood levy: 55 per cent are supportive (26 per cent strongly, 29 per cent somewhat), with 41 per cent opposed (25 per cent strongly, 16 per cent somewhat). Despite this, Tony Abbott has managed to claw back seven points on preferred prime minister, on which he now trails Julia Gillard 48 per cent (down four points) to 35 per cent (up three). Gillard’s approval rating is steady on 45 per cent but her disapproval is up four to 42 per cent, while Abbott’s numbers are little changed: approval steady on 42 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent.

All told, a most curious set of numbers.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead, with both major parties up a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 46 per cent and Labor to 38 per cent. The Greens are down one to 10 per cent, further widening the gap in their ratings between Newspoll and Essential (“others” are also consistently higher in Newspoll than Essential – in both cases, the latter has been much closer to the last election result).

My favourite of the supplementary questions is on the party with the best approach to funding flood reconstruction, on which Labor leads 36 per cent to 28 per cent. However, the Coalition performs significantly better on “who would you trust most to manage the program of rebuilding infrastructure”, on which Labor’s lead is 36 per cent to 35 per cent. Respondents were also asked for their opinion on each aspect of the government’s efforts to pay for flood reconstruction. Significantly, this shows strong support for the scrapping of “cash for clunkers”, a program that evidently contributed to perceptions of ongoing government wastefulness. This time the flood levy had 44 per cent support and 50 per cent opposition: better than last week’s Essential, but worse than Newspoll. Cuts in solar energy programs and the scrapping of the higher education capital development pool were strongly opposed.

Questions on leaders’ attributes show a deterioration in perceptions of both leaders since October, in similar ways: both are down sharply on intelligent, hard-working, capable and visionary, but Julia Gillard has also suffered on arrogant, out of touch and narrow-minded. The only question on which Tony Abbott performs better than Gillard is “superficial”, though in many cases there’s not much in it.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research has again set aside a further question for release later in the day by Channel Ten, this time relating to whether the independents should continue supporting Labor or switch to the Coalition. It finds 43 per cent favouring the former option, against 30 per cent for the latter. Breakdowns by age and party support go much as you would expect.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,579 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 129 of 132
1 128 129 130 132
  1. interesting to see where we would be now if Kevin had initiated the reform process straight after the reports findings was released in mid 2009 instead of going on a 6 month listening tour ?

    This whols process would have been done and dusted and signed off by COAG well before the last federal election with all labor govs except WA and no pending election in NSW.

    Would could have been a plus for labor at that election turned out to be no help at all.

    Nothing more than hindsight asking questions.

  2. lizzie

    I take bespoke to mean in this context, disputes specific to the party. Perhaps meaning the ideological disputes that are specific to the coalition.

  3. Pretty poor face to face morgan poll over the last two weeks 50:50 (so probably 48:52)

    [Amid debate over flood levy and reconstruction costs,
    ALP (50%, up 0.5%) level with L-NP (50%, down 0.5%)

    ——————————————————————————–
    Federal Poll : Finding No. 4630 : This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,760 electors. : February 11, 2011
    The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll shows on a Two-Party preferred basis the ALP and L-NP are now equal – 50% each – a result similar to the telephone Morgan Poll conducted at the same time (February 1-3, 2011, L-NP – 50.5% cf. ALP – 49.5% and released last Friday, February 4). If a Federal election were held now it would be too close to call.

    The L-NP primary vote is 43% (up 0.5% from the telephone Morgan Poll of February 1-3, 2011) clearly ahead of the ALP 39% (up 4%), Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12.5% (up 0.5%) and Others/ Independents 5.5% (down 5%).

    The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 2.5 points to 125 – with slightly more Australians are confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ (54%, up.0.5% ) and 29% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.]

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4630/

  4. 6405 – I think it means specific disputes between individuals behind the scenes, rather than a general belly ache about the leader/ deputy/ whoever.

  5. Then why didn’t he say nuanced? Bespoke is generally about ordering tailoring or boots. Makes me think of a foreigner using the wrong English word.

  6. I’m watching JG make exactly the same moves as people on here critisised KR for.

    Actually KR admitted – for the political purpose of getting “clear air” – that there had been gross waste and mismanagement, put the GFC Stimulus down to mere “context” agreed with all the bullshit stories written about just about everything up until that time, and suffered the consequences.

    Julia is not about to do that.

    It was plain what she should be doing, and a number of commenters here (and clearly within the party) knew what she should do. The problem was the Arbibistas who couldn’t see a straight line without wanting to turn it into a dog’s leg, or an open front door without wanting to use the bathroom window. She seems to have gotten rid of them, or sidelined them, and is doing what’s bleedin’ obvious: addressing important issues instead of trying to spin them.

    Try to get “waste and mismanagement in the BER” past Gillardin an interview and she’ll pull you up and argue the premiss of the question first. But ask her to deal with perceptions of “waste and mismanagement” and she’s a realist. Full marks in my book.

  7. ‘The Australian’ has an item on Gillard’s response to the ‘constitutional crisis’ in its breaking news section. Nothing on the health package so far.

    Now, what was it that they were rabbiting on about in today’s editorial?

    They weren’t talking about themselves. Wherever did you get that idea?

  8. Boerwar,

    [scorpio

    Let’s just pretend you are Gillard. You are in a press conference. A journo says to you, ‘How are are you going to stop the waste?’ ]

    She’s been feeding the meme since the day she took over, possibly hoping to deflect it and hope it burnt itself out.

    By constantly feeding it she has to wear it all the time now and there is no answer to counter an issue that is now set in stone as typical Labor waste & mismanagement.

    Even towards Rudd’s last days, Labor still rated well in the economic management stakes although it had fallen behind the Opps.

    It’s now fallen through the floor and the “waste & mismanagement “meme is the primary reason.

    JG made her bed with this. JG can find her own way out of it. She wanted to be PM.

    Have a look at all the indicatoirs that Labor held satisfactory leads in. Where are they now?

    In the toilet. Who takes responsibility for that?

    Too many people have scales firmly stuck over their eyes at present. Not me.

  9. bg

    We are getting to the law of diminishing returns. Patients and families want to explore any option and that is expensive.

    Small improvements cost more and more as we get better and better at doing things.

  10. I think this might now be one of those words that gets ‘print’ and someone else uses it and off we go.
    Everytime I hear the word ‘oversight’ now meaning ‘look over’ instead of ‘miss out’, I get a frisson of discomfort.

  11. Hate to be a pedant, but bespoke means one of a kind, original, tailor made for a specific customer.

    Mind you, that could still be applied to some things political 🙂

  12. 6405 – I think it means specific disputes between individuals behind the scenes, rather than a general belly ache about the leader/ deputy/ whoever.

    I guess they think they’ll be in government by next month and they’re jockeying for the plush positions.

    It’s going to be a big let-down for them, methinks.

  13. Best commentary of the day – on this site, or anywhere else – was Tingle in todays Thin. Tomorrows commentary will reflect the last three days. But the polls will barely move over the next week or so. Punters take a while to react. It’s never instant.

  14. scorpio
    I wonder if you would mind answering directly the very simple question I asked? As Pyne would say, direct relevance, please.

  15. b_g that Morgan is bizarro!

    ALP primary up 4%, Greens up, Indies halved but the ALP TPP drops????

    If the F2F result is correct (50:50) and we apply the adjustment 4% that is a 54:46 result which is terrible for the government.

    …just saying.

    But this was pre-Tony’s absence seizure so who knows what effect that will have next time around?

  16. Mod Lib

    the ups and downs are simply comparing the previous phone poll with this face to face.

    it is not a good poll for the govt. But it was taken before the abbott gaffe and the divisions.

    Scorpio is dead right ont he waste meme. It is the lead in JGs saddle bags. But I think time and sonstent performance will lift it.

    No one like Abbott, they woould only reluctantly vote for him.

  17. [s53 of the Constitution says that the Senate may not originate or amend money bills.]

    That’s all well and good, but the bill in question is not a money bill.

  18. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 41 seconds ago
    Christopher Pyne says he’s grateful for TAbbott’s continuing confidence in his leadership team of which he is a member]

  19. [amapresident Dr Pesce will be available to comment on the COAG health deal at 2.30pm today, 11 February, at Sydney’s Westmead Private Hospital – Team 10 minutes ago via web ]

    Smash the cartels and special interest groups!

  20. [ALP primary up 4%, Greens up, Indies halved but the ALP TPP drops????]

    Yeah that makes no sense.

    But I’m more disappointed that Morgan hasn’t added his astute commentary on how trickle down economics will help the Libs sail to power or whatever other weird thing was passing through his mind at the time he decided to publish this poll.

  21. [blue_green
    Posted Friday, February 11, 2011 at 1:10 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    the ups and downs are simply comparing the previous phone poll with this face to face]

    Ah ha! I forgot Morgan makes this critical error! I missed it was a cross method comparison.

    Vic, Morgan has a consistent error so it can be interpreted once adjusted (after the fact) IMO anyway.

    Just add 4% (or 3% according to William)

  22. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 42 seconds ago
    Pyne says he supports TAbbott and JBishop in their positions. On Indonesian schools cuts says cuts are tough but that’s they way it is.]

  23. If we adjust by 10% with a twist, then double the first number we think of, before subtracting the margin of error minus three per cent, what’s the result then?

  24. Just heard an interesting statistic, which is worse than I had thought: 117 people per day die in auto crashes inthe US. This is 42,000 per year.

    Normalized to Australia (divide by 15) this comes out to a 2,848 equivalent.

    Seeing as our road deaths are about 1400 (1,464 in 2008) that makes roads in the States about twice as deadly as ours.

    The price of freedom?

  25. [Pyne says he supports TAbbott and JBishop in their positions. On Indonesian schools cuts says cuts are tough but that’s they way it is.]

    if you just dropped in from mars you would actully think he was FM and the gov

  26. [If we adjust by 10% with a twist, then double the first number we think of, before subtracting the margin of error minus three per cent, what’s the result then?]

    A fish called Wanda?

  27. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 49 seconds ago
    Of internal complaints ‘One Nation’ is running the Libs (policy too hardline) Pyne says those worries are ‘wild.]

  28. [THEBURGERMAN | 1 minute ago
    @latikambourke @haydencooper What did John Hewson say this morning? An Opposition frontbench that comprises of ‘more ambition than ability’?]

  29. BTW, the Burgerman is some editor in the News Room at Sky. Hewson did say that this morning. I thought it was a brilliant quote.

  30. Anyone know anything about A/Prof. Stewart Franks, apparently a hydrologist? Carrying on a treat about no AGW on Counterpoint at the moment.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 129 of 132
1 128 129 130 132