Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Re FOI and NBN co exemption.

    Has anybody heard the facts or are we all just accepting the article in the Fin Review as fact ?

    My understanding that it is just a “claim/ assumption” at the moment based on the NBN co being a incorporated company. Add two and two and get five by the journalist involved.

    Interesting to see what the facts are. I well could be wrong but I think we should wait and see.

  3. [Apparently Kidman and Urban have a new child, born through a surrogate mother. Their press release includes: No words can adequately convey the incredible gratitude that we feel for everyone who was so supportive throughout this process, in particular our gestational carrier.’]

    what’s wRONg with “pigeon carrier”? and how long will it be before “outsourcing” is used.

  4. BH

    The propaganda by the opposition has definitely worked. But what frustrates me is people themselves. Can they see the propaganda for what it is?

    To be honest, I am not sure if Lindsay Fox is really a conservative or not.

  6. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 25 minutes ago
    Barnaby Joyce on Bob Brown’s coal barons/floods comment – ‘absurd provocative, clumsy & factually incorrect statement.’ ‘http://j.mp/g5HhYg ]

  8. Rewi Lyall @101,

    Thanks.

    Yes I saw that.

    I was just interested in seeing the full details of what information held by the NBN co is exempt etc.

    Any NBN information flowing from the Government itself would be subject to FOI so I wonder whether the exemption would refer to commercial in confidence time information such as certain sections of the business plan only.

    Gerneral costing and roll out figures etc would be covered by FOI through the government so I think we should wait and see before jumping onto this.

  9. Anyway,

    Turmbull and co have jumped onto the NBN thing based on assumptions made in a Fin Review article.

    Trying to get the news cycle away from how good the government is responding to the flooding.

    With all respect to the greens perhaps they should not jump in too early either.

  10. I don’t know if it’s been mentioned but the ER survey showed 18% for and 71% against putting the GST on on-line shopping less than $1000.

  11. Morning all

    I did a post before the Brisbane flood (just before) saying that I was glad I was not in charge of letting the Wivenhoe water out. I am even gladder now.

    (1) Wivenhoe Dam has more than one purpose.
    (2) You can’t maximise (to paraphrase someone) all of your purposes.
    (3) Therefore, with the benefit of hindsight, you are always ‘wrong’. (The corollary is that you are also always ‘right’ but no-one gives a rat’s about people who are always right.)
    (4) ‘The Australian’, in its perenniel effort to avoid foresight in relation to A***** G***** W******, sniffs an opportunity to focus on something other than AGW: how to find blame for not maximising your purposes.

    This is a classic Do-nothing ambit: Create a diversionary ‘problem’. The result: We don’t have to think about CO2 emissions because we know what the ‘real’ problem is.

    They may not know it, but those poor clucks in charge of Wivenhoe have become sacrificial goats for the Do-nothings.

  13. Finnigans

    Apparently Kidman and Urban have a new child, born through a surrogate mother

    what’s wRONg with “pigeon carrier”? and how long will it be before “outsourcing” is used.

    In their case, the surrogate was a ‘suburban kidwoman’.

  16. [Total inflow into Wivenhoe Dam at this time was 2.6 million ML a day, equivalent to the dam’s entire storage.]

    Well, if that quote from the Courier Mail is true and accurate that basically puts paid to this argument about how they should have released more water from Wivenhoe earlier. Dam would have filled up in A DAY IF IT HAD BEEN COMPLETELY EMPTY, or all that water could have been let through and flooded Brisbane anyway.

  17. In what context Gus which ‘waste’ (there are so many to chose from) was he referring to?

    … We all live in the gutter but some of us can look to the stars’

  23. I am really looking forward to the coalitions dam plan. I want a dozens sites identified in queensland in 12 months please. Then the people affected by the compulsory acquisitions can start planning for it.

  26. Traveston compulsory acqusition for a tight valley

    [Traveston dam property sales top $243m
    10th September 2007
    Sales of property for the Traveston dam have topped $243 million, Queensland Deputy Premier Anna Bligh said today, adding that the recent heavy rain had heightened interest in proposal.

    “As at August 31 we have settled 279 properties with a further 86 pending settlement. This will take us to 365 properties,” she said.

    “That means we now have agreements or settlement on more than 61% of the properties needed for the $1.7 billion dam.]

  29. Following on from Sheehan’s abysmal effort yesterday, today in the SMH we have Gerard Henderson basically saying that floods in the past prove that the current situation is completely normal and disprove that climate change is even happening and what’s more Bob Brown is the devil incarnate.

  30. Robb can jump all he likes.

    The surplus will not be in any danger. Swan and The PM know what they have got to play with.

    It will all be a matter of reallocation. Put the budget into a little more defict 2011-2012 perhaps but the overall budget line over the forward estimates will smooth out.

  31. blue-green:

    You know we won’t get any detail from the opposition about their dams plan. All we’ll get instead is hollow rhetoric designed to obfuscate and cause doubt.

  32. [
    I don’t know if it’s been mentioned but the ER survey showed 18% for and 71% against putting the GST on on-line shopping less than $1000.
    ]

    A beautiful set of numbers 😀

    I found these findings interesting

    [
    Respondents were more likely to buy products online from Australian companies – for most products, they were about twice as likely to buy from Australian companies as from overseas companies

    49% of all respondents said they had looked at products in a store, then bought online – while 61% said they had looked online, then bought at a store.
    ]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2011/01/Essential-Report_170111.pdf

  35. While on the topic of dams – check this out from AVAAZ – a group associated with Get Up I think;

    [Last Wednesday, Brazil’s top environmental regulator resigned in refusal to license a project that experts say would be an ecological disaster: the Belo Monte Dam Complex, which would carve a scar bigger than the Panama Canal into the heart of the Amazon.

    The mega-dam would flood huge tracts of rainforest and displace thousands of indigenous people. The companies who would profit from the dam have been trying to bulldoze past environmental laws — and want to break ground within weeks.

    Eletronorte, the company who will profit most from Belo Monte, is demanding that the license to start construction be issued even if the project does not meet environmental standards.

    Experts and officials who study the proposed dam overwhelmingly reject it as a catastrophe in the making. Abelardo Bayma Azevedo, who stepped down last week as president of Brazil’s environmental agency, is not the first resignation caused by pressure to allow Belo Monte; his predecessor stepped down for the same reason last year, as did Brazil’s Minister for the Environment — among other top officials. Now, it’s up to us to ensure that these resignations, and decades of protest within Brazil, will not be in vain.

    Belo Monte would flood at least 400,000 acres of rainforest, affect hundreds of kilometres of the Xingu river, and displace over 40,000 people, including indigenous communities of 18 different ethnic groups who depend on the Xingu for their subsistence. It is so economically risky that the government has had to turn to public funds for most of the $16 billion investment. And the dam would be one of Brazil’s least efficient, operating at only 10% capacity for the dry months from July to October.

    The dam’s backers argue that it will supply Brazil’s growing energy needs. But a far greater, greener, and cheaper supply of energy is available: energy efficiency. A WWF study found that efficiency alone could save the equivalent of 14 Belo Monte dams by 2020. The benefits of a truly green approach would go to everyone, rather than a handful of powerful corporations. But it’s only the corporations who hire lobbyists and wield political muscle — unless enough of us, in the global public, raise our voices, and ensure that Dilma faces a real choice for Brazil’s future.

    Belo Monte’s construction could start as early as February. Brazil’s Minister of Energy and Mining, Edson Lobão, says the next license will be approved soon — we need to stop Belo Monte before the bulldozers move in. Let’s welcome Dilma into the presidency with a massive outcry to do the right thing: stop Belo Monte! ]

    http://www.avaaz.org

  37. Think Big @ 128;

    I thought this response to Henderson at the SMH web site was one of quite a few who nailed him beautifully;

    [Whilst Gerard is busy re-inventing history those noted eco-warriors Munich Reinsurance stated in a press release back in September:

    “Munich Re’s natural catastrophe database, the most comprehensive of its kind in the world, shows a marked increase in the number of weather-related events. For instance, globally there has been a more than threefold increase in loss-related floods since 1980”
    http://www.munichre.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2010/2010_09_27_press_release.aspx

    But according to Gerard there’s ‘nothing to see here move along.]

    Yes those radical Insurance Companies need to be brought into line don’t they? Actually I suspect that rising insurance premiums may just force some doubters to doubt their doubting soon. 😉

  38. [MINING magnate Nathan Tinkler has upped his offer to buy the Newcastle Knights to a staggering $100 million – guaranteeing the Knights $10m in sponsorship every year for the next decade and erasing their $3m debt in return for the club’s NRL licence.]

    I read somewhere Twiggy has recently bought a new private jet for something like $25M. Clearly these guys are doing it tough and can’t possibly be asked to pay more for the non-renewable resources they take.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/tinkler-weighs-in-with-100m-knights-offer-20110117-19u42.html

  40. Clearly Munich re is another example of labor failure – if they were a legitimate government they would be able to stop evil insurance companies lying to increase premiums unfairly

  41. I had wondered why the Australian Water Association had not commented yet on the floods

    Here is why:

    [Floodwaters of over 90cm have affected the AWA Queensland office. The office is now closed until further notice.]

  44. Well, Bob Brown certainly has a knack for getting the Do-nothings into a froth.

    See if you can spot the Do-nothing gambits in the following statements. (Remember the whole point of Do-nothings’s acitivities is to ensure that we do nothing about CO2 emissions. They have been phenomenally successful to date. A quarter of a century after the CO2 emissions problem being recognised as a disaster, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by around 25%.) It is important for Do-nothings to build on their success by ensuring that the ‘problems’ being discussed are never, ever about the vital and urgent need to reduce emissions.

    In this case, the Do-nothings have to defend their view that there is no possible connection between burning coal, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the frequency and amplitude of floods. No connection at all, with 100% scientific certainty. So, what do the Do-nothings say in response to this bit of climate science? Ignore the science, of course, and talk about something else, preferably with a bit of self-righteous fury thrown in for good measure.

    ‘MacArthur Coal chairman Keith De Lacy said:

    (1) Senator Brown was ‘irrelevant to mainstream Australia’
    (2) his comments showed contempt for flood victims
    (3) his comments ae highly insensitive in the context of the clean-up effort that is going on in Queensland.

    Xstrata communications director James Rickards said:

    (1) Senator Brown had lost touch with reality.
    (2) Xstrata’s operations and employees have been directly affected by this
    (3) our employees are still helping with the clean-up
    (4) it is a disgrace for him to be using this major political disaster for political point scoring.
    (5) now is not the time for political posturing.

    Minerals Council deputy chief Brendan Pearson:

    (1) accused Brown of rank opportunism
    (2) that Brown’s call on the mining tax would lead to job losses and projects shelved
    (3) that Brown should be condemned for putting his party ahead of the interests of the people of Queensland.
    (4) that Brown was ‘unhelpful’ and that we should have a ‘sober debate’.

    Martin Ferguson

    (1) criticized Brown for making political capital out of a national tragedy.

    These comments are reported in The Australian. The Headline is “Brown condemned for ‘insensitive’ outburst” The writer James Massola.

    BTW, call me insensitive, but I am looking forward to the following question being asked in Newspoll. ‘Thinking about the recent floods in WA, Tasmania, New South Wales, Tasmania and Queensland, which statement best reflects your views:

    (a) AGW had nothing at all to do with the floods.
    (b) AGW probably made the floods worse and it is probably making it more likely that more floods will occur in the future.’

    I am not holding my breath.

  45. [Barnaby Joyce on Bob Brown’s coal barons/floods comment – ‘absurd provocative, clumsy & factually incorrect statement.’ ‘http://j.mp/g5HhYg ]
    Well Barnaby should know. After all a coal baron is his parties principle bankroller, and the National Party would be far too principled to even accept cash from Clive Palmer if he really was making money from an industry that created climate change. There is no conflict of interest in Barnaby’s comments at all 😀

  46. The ‘Do-nothings’ have basically used the same tactics as they did with passive smoking. Why then have they been successful with stopping GHGE reduction measures, but failed dismally with passive smoking?

  49. On the news on ABC this morning I heard the Qld opposition leader JPL “supporting the setting up of the Commission” but in the next breath he was into full rant mode about how the opposition hadn’t been consulted on the terms of reference or membership of the committee.

    The cynic in me says that he is already setting the groundwork for criticism of the report when it is issued.

    Can any of you learned folks out there give me any examples of where a government has set up a commission of enquiry, Royal or otherwise, and included the opposition in all its deliberations beforehand? I would have thought that it’s up to the government to formulate the how and why, and leave it to the opposition to make a submission like anyone else.

  50. confessions

    I have thought for some time that one of the major difficulties in getting climate change action up is that the causality is difficult for many people to understand. It is, in a sense, not personal. The effects are indirect. The levels of certainty with respect to a specific event are more difficult to state.

    OTOH, most families with smokers had family members who died of lung cancer or who gasped their final years to an inexorable death from emphysema.

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