Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The first federal opinion poll of the new year is from Morgan’s face-to-face surveying last weekend, covering 855 respondents. This finds Labor recovering slightly from the previous poll of December 11-12, which on the headline figure had them trailing for the first time in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, Morgan has been somewhat erratic in choosing which of its two-party measures to use for the headline: “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, or “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election”. Lately they have been using the former, although the latter is universally recognised as more reliable. The score on the former measure has gone from 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition to 50-50, while on the latter it has shifted more modestly from 50-50 to 50.5-49.5 in favour of Labor. My policy is to ignore the Morgan headline and favour the previous election measure. However, more significant than the distinction between the two is the obvious systematic bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling – once this is factored in, the poll points to a fairly solid lead for the Coalition.

The primary vote figures make clear that the Labor recovery on the headline two-party result is entirely down to a larger share of non-major party voters nominating Labor as the party to which they would direct their preference, which coming from a sample of about 150 is unlikely to be very meaningful. Labor’s primary vote is in fact up by less than the Coalition’s, by half a point to 38.5 per cent, with the Coalition up a full point to 44 per cent. The Greens are down half a point to 13 per cent.

UPDATE (16/1): The first Essential Research for the year finds no change on voting intention whatsoever since December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party, with primary votes of 46 per cent Coalition, 38 per cent Labor and 10 per cent Greens. However, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings: approval up eight points to 51 per cent and disapproval down four to 36 per cent (her best figures since July 19), with an increase in her lead as preferred prime minister from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions relate to respondents’ online shopping activities.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,666 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor”

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  1. Diog

    our problem is we dont know cost and efect on exports , but allso everywhere else in world is pretty econ fragile so i’d be suprised if tax incr root was taken I dont mind borrowing & deferring some of supa etc and keep employ and growth ticking away when a double dip may happen as EU not flash

  2. Gusface,

    fair enough.

    I just don’t think that is necessary to open a whole new political front at this point in time.

    I really believe the rebuild can be managed without new taxes at this point as long as it is pushed and pushed that it will take time.

    The whole concept of reconstruction fund/tax can then be put on the agenda in two or three years and framed around the need to plan for any future disaster and on the back of the rebuild.

    One brick at a time. I just don’t think there is a need now to fight this fight.

  3. confessions@2520

    Or they could simply repeat what one of the Qld mining company bosses said in response to Bob Brown: “But, but, but, we’ve already donated $1M to the Premier’s fund!”
    Fantastic effort boys.

    That reaction alone made BB’s comments worthwhile – the miners either a) cough up a lot more and still look like they are reluctant to; or b) refuse and look like grasping bastards in the face of the Qld misery they indirectly contributed to.

    Maybe there was more guile in Brown’s remark than was first apparent. A job well done, I’d say.

    I wasn’t surprised that Ferguson bounced out of the blocks on behalf of the miners and attacked BB. As a denier, he’s one of the big worries in the ministry for internal negotiations within the ALP this year. He will fight tooth and nail to minimise the target and maximise the compensation to mining companies in the legislation – in other words to re-adopt the old bill. And that wouldn’t be supported by the indies or the Greens. It could get very interesting within the government, let alone the parliament.

  4. evan 14,

    Why even raise the issue again ?

    I personally like Franks contribution and admire his passion and loyality.

    Time to move on. i think the current discussion is very interesting.

  5. Doyley

    As long as you don’t end up poking yourself with the iron and inflicting unnecessary dmage to yourself.

    I’m afraid your warning comes too late. 😆

  6. Actually Diog I think that we will probably have to all of the above. Borrow, tax more and cut spending. And it wouldn’t matter which government it was, it would make no difference. The mix has to make sense though. People will except it as long as it is seen to be fair and the end result targeted. Some kind of national reconstruction fund makes a lot of sense. We know this will not be the last natural (or CC) disaster for Australia. And it is a kind of insurance. That is why I asked about the Future Fund. It is fiscally responsible to plan for these things. We set it up to deal with Qld/Vic but continue so if a state suffers a disaster the funds are available? Who contributes? Everyone according to their means 😉

  7. Diog

    yes they will !!
    and one reason , aprat from not wantin to scare mkts until net bill is known why Julai said budget will still be in surplus in 2013 (so to control th debate till figures is known’) but think it is saleable

  8. [evan14Posted Monday, January 17, 2011 at 11:10 pm | PermalinkHas Frank finally gone to bed?
    This board is a better place without his blatant personal attacks on those who don’t agree wtih him.

    What Gweneth Said:-)

  9. I’ll sign off for tonight with the following question:
    Do we want this to be a board for people of all political persuasions, or is Poll Bludger to be a 100% pro Gillard Government appreciation board?

  10. doyley

    true story

    we had 3 under


    i was running setting up branch,jules was relieving at big super firm

    worked from home but did meetings (sorta)

    anyways was ironing van huesen shirt and talking on landline to syd

    mobile rang

    guess what i picked anyways

    no serious damge

    It can happen


  11. [Do we want this to be a board for people of all political persuasions, or is Poll Bludger to be a 100% pro Gillard Government appreciation board?]

    No silly

    100% bilbo

    0% others

  12. Doyley,
    So much-needed infrastructure is going to be with-held from communities that really require it so the funds can be redirected to The Recovery. Because? We are too chicken-shyte scared to take our bowl up to Mr Bumble and ask for more.

  13. I thought the Government had dropped Cash For Clunkers?
    One of the more stupid announcements during the election campaign, probably dreamed up by the dud team of Swan/Arbib/Bitar. 😉

  14. doyley

    when jules got home

    (after my wimpish call)

    she couldnt stop laughing

    the tin lids thought i was doing some telly tubbies dance


    I always check first these days

  15. Doyley

    while since i looked , there was 3 bill in a educ type fund & about 70 bill in future but govrened by a board for that purpose Norm reveneu means will be needed & my 2 answers to diog is my guess seing we dont know reel cost & export losses

  16. BTW Was Swan actually out helping volunteers in Brisbane over the weekend?
    I saw a fair cross section of Brisbane MPs – Rudd, Graham Perrett in Moreton, a few LNP ones…….but no Member for Lilly.

  17. Puff,

    Re the infrastructure funds. Not something i would consider necessary to grab at this point.

    Just a question. I was surprised the Future fund was in the red thats all.

  18. ron

    most realised losses will be from shortfalls in coal contracts

    currently the worst scenario is -5%

    iron ore is about 3%

    the impact is not in the supply per se,more the shipping schedule

    ps some major logistics are going on to use other ports/lines

    the worst estimate for supply is 10 days

  19. Gweneth
    [I just don’t buy anything that needs ironing. Problem solved.]
    I call it Darwin’s theory natural selection. If it needs too much ironing I never wear it and it goes into the Goodwill bag.

    Survival of the Flattest.

  20. [Thanks for that. I had no idea the future fund was in the red.]
    [Costello is in charge isn’t he?]
    Why am I not surprised?

  21. All of this is pie in the sky of course until we know the full extent of the damage and the damage is still happening 🙁 now in Vic. I just hope that all political BS doesn’t stop people getting the support they need and the infrastructure we all need. More floods maybe in Qld too.

  22. Doyley

    its liabilities for unfunded supa etc , minus 150 bill
    anothr present that Howard left us with from 400 bill net of inflaton mining boom 1 xcept put abit in at end

  23. Gweneth,
    [the damage is still happening 🙁 now in Vic]
    My sister is in that Vic area. Last I heard, she was okay. My uncles in Warwick were above the waterline and bro in another area of Vic has evacuated all his horses.

  24. Ron,

    Interesting what is going to happen in the next ten years or so with all the baby boomers and so on leaving the PS. A lot of them will have been there for a lot of years.

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