Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. Blue-Green, Its not just you. She is a robot – except when in Parliament. She should read Laurie Oakes in Saturdays Hun with a great analysis of why her style is killing her.

  6. The OO:

    [NBN return less than in commercial world]

    I suppose now we’ll be treated to a fresh barrage of anti-NBN articles now the business plan has been released.

  10. blue_green,

    …(especially in Australia).

    So there some work (on motivations & methods) for places like the US or western Europe?

  14. Next time Turnbull asks again about cost/benefit analysis, someone should pin him down to exactly what type of cost/benefit that he has in mind.

    To me, this NBN Busplan is sufficient cost/benefit analysis:

    * The government added the estimated total equity and debt funding for NBN would be $40.9 billion of which, the government will put up $27.5 billion in equity and NBN will borrow $13.4 billion from financial markets between 2015 and 2021.

    * The NBN will deliver fibre to the home for 93 per cent of the nation with the remaining seven per cent of premises to be covered by either wireless or satellite.

    * Some 1.7 million homes, businesses and schools are expected to be connected by June 2013. The assumption is based on a 70 per cent takeup of the network by businesses and homes.

    * The basic plan will offer download speeds of 12 megabits per second and upload speeds of one megabit per second.. The initial $24 price for a basic NBN service will drop overtime, the plan promises. Mr Quigley described as ‘‘conservative’’ the assumptions on future growth made in the business plan.

    and lastly:

    * NBN Co’s expected internal rate of return is 7.0 per cent,’’ documents provided to reporters by the company show. – This is the same rate of return as your Super over a 20 years period. And to think, when we pay it off, we will have a truly national fibre infra-structure, the best cyber superhighway. This is and will be money well spent.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-broadband-priced-at-24-a-month-20101220-192ic.html

    In addition, the indirect/intangible benefits to other sectors, such as Education, Health, Tourism, Entertainment etc will be enormous.

    STOP THE GLOAT!!!!!

  15. Most roads pay less than a commercial return – not so many schools pay a commercial return and both labor (curse us) and the forces of evil flog off anything with a return and idiot Howard locked in and sold off a natural monopoly!

  16. Obama’s statement is old news. And what would you expect the POTUS to say when the AG is out to get Assange? And I wouldn’t be surprised at Clinton condemning them as well since the leaks disclosed her approval for illegally invading the private details and lives of UN members.

    Assange should believed my criteria for whistle blowing criteria for lcassifyed leaking

    Covered this earlier, I wont keep repeating it for those who don’t want to know.

    If you are unable to see the difference between personal business and state business conducted on behalf of all persons then that is your problem I imagine.

  18. [I for one, will be celebrating Christmas with gutso.]

    Who is “gutso”? 😉

    In all seriousness, really glad to hear your father in law is mending well. Post-stroke treatment seems to have improved dramatically in many cases in recent times.

  22. [However Hillary is ultimately responsible for what happens in State and she must share some of the blame for the 250,000 cables leaked to Wikileaks.]

    Diog, the Xmas card is off and declaration of war again?

    Isnt Obama the one ultimately in charged and responsible, you iDIOt.

  23. TP,

    The issue is do you believe in transparency or you don’t. Picking and choosing what is on and off limits is simply intellectual cherry picking. The fact is the technology is there to do either in spades.

    There is no such thing as a secret in the cyber age. Assange just proved it.

  25. Finns,

    It is OK, Diogs is swinging in the breeze. He’s already blamed Obama’s IT department. Pretty soon it’s all Obama’s fault. Then Hillary for POTUS.

    Then the wind will change again.

  31. [well the ring on the left finger i am old fashioned i know but a little engagment would of been very nice.]

    my say, watch out for the 3 rings circus – first the engagement ring, then the wedding ring and ultimately the suffer ring 👿

  32. [Kersebleptes
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

    blue_green,

    …(especially in Australia).

    So there some work (on motivations & methods) for places like the US or western Europe?]

    I have found some reviews but, again, nothing that provide anything overly insightful.

    Broadly what they say is:
    -stats are hard to come by
    -no longitudinal studies
    -people smugglers have strong links to organised crime (all the way along the chain- in origin country and transit country)
    -corrupt officials facilitate movement in all jurisdictions (esp at airports/customs etc)

  35. [So is Julia getting married the cure to all that ails the ALP?]

    bg, it will be even better if she is pregnant as well, they will go ga-ga over the baby.

  36. GW can you please advise whch plan that is on? The cheapest I could find was $9.90 but that is with a 400mb cap, which would be pointless.

    Not that it matters much, those speeds are not available to us and we live five minutes from the centre of Perth – the exchange is too old you see and we are in between towers.

  39. [GW can you please advise whch plan that is on? The cheapest I could find was $9.90 but that is with a 400mb cap, which would be pointless.]

    What do you mean what plan?

    Those are 25Mbit plans from the Tassie NBN pre-release adjusted with wholesale access costs to the NBN.

  41. [So is Julia getting married the cure to all that ails the ALP?]

    who made that up she said the ring was NOT an engagement ring our daughter is 30 something and she often wear a ring on that finger. So what.
    the journo ask her she said NO>

    and thats her business

  44. [hat do you mean what plan?

    Those are 25Mbit plans from the Tassie NBN pre-release adjusted with wholesale access costs to the NBN.]

    gee whizz dont you know what a plan his, are you using the internet in a cafe perhaps

  45. GeeWizz @ 1045 (the other thread)
    [And besides, if we stopped every single boat we’d be able to take 13,500 from the camps.]

    Abbott & Scott Morrison also repeat the same argument.

    Bob Hawke gave an effective counter-argument in his “we are all boat-people” comments during the election … It is preferable to admit boat-arrivals who are genuine refugees, rather than pick people from camps, because the boat-arrivals have shown incredible bravery to risk a dangerous voyage to come to Australia. They are the sort of people who would make good future Australians.

    In addition to repeating Hawke’s argument, the Government should also emphasise to voters that more refugees are not being admitted under the current government policy. It is just a re-allocation of refugee visas from type of arrival to another.

    As I see it, the current policy really can’t be restricted any further, because there would be an uproar from Labor’s Left & the Independents … it can’t be liberalised, otherwise suburban votes could be lost … so, if the current policy can’t be changed then the Government should come-up with some very good arguments to defend it.

    [“We’re all bloody boat people,” Mr Hawke said.

    “That’s how we found the place.”

    Mr Hawke said he understood the frustration of many voters at “queue jumpers”, but said “we have to look at the other side of the coin”.

    He said the Coalition’s approach to the boat people question was “nonsense”.

    “We cannot turn the boats back,” Mr Hawke said.

    “These people have got initiative, guts and courage and Australia needs people like that.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/the-leaders/abbott-mad-as-a-cut-snake-says-boatperson-hawke-20100813-122fr.html

  46. [243 Gary
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 1:30 pm | Permalink
    Aristotle (155) has ruined TP’s, Evan’s and Vera’s day.]

    yes Gary and made my days and Bh day and Vic Day and Lizzies day and so on.
    now i can go back to decorate my cake with a smile on my face.
    and lets face it Julia did get engaged would nt it be just wonderful i dont care if she doesnt but gee i love romance

  47. [and lets face it Julia did get engaged would nt it be just wonderful i dont care if she doesnt but gee i love romance]

    It would give something positive for people to talk about. And be a bit of fun.

  49. [233 blue_green
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 1:23 pm | Permalink
    So is Julia getting married the cure to all that ails the ALP?
    234 blue_green
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 1:24 pm | Permalink
    I can see the polling in the future.

    Q. If Julia Gillard got married. Would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for her?]

    all this stuff b/g

    wouldnt it be best to not polities it , just to say i would wish her all the love in the world. if

  50. [She should read Laurie Oakes in Saturdays Hun with a great analysis of why her style is killing her.]
    This is the same ploy they applied to Kev. You ‘go for the man’ and criticise everything about him/her. This ads to the weakening. The other thing you do is write articles attributing comments to “a member of the Labor Party”. Of course you don’t name them but one thing you do is make sure they’re not supporting the government’s stance on an issue.

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