Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  2. [$38 Wholesale for 100Mbps]

    so we get the retail price then, what will that be will it be a 10 percent mark up or 30 percent like most prices in shops are.

    as now its 49. 95 for 12 meg with bigpond, thats very good,

  3. Looking through the research on Asylum seekers and Australia. It looks like most of the research (with the exception of health stuff) has been written by people who have never met an asylum seeker.

    I can’t believe how depauperate it is.

  4. Diogs,

    WWP makes a good point re you and Truthy.

    Both of you rely upon and are fixated on this “correlation equals causation” notion.

    Has anyone ever seen youtwo in the same room at the same time.

  5. This might be of interest to fellow bludgers.

    I just did a quick analysis of the Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and combining those results with Nielsen’s breakdowns and including a Galaxy from QLD and the two Westpoll results from WA shows that the result would still be a hung parliament with the ALP on 74 seats, picking a net of 2 seats. (using Mackerras’s most recent pendulum)

    4 lost in NSW, 3 won in both QLD and WA.

    This assumes all the Independents are re-elected.

    Of course, it is possible that the ALP could win back Melbourne and Denison, which would give them 76 seats, and the Coalition could win back 1 or more of the Independents’ seats depending on who stood again and if they could regain O’Connor.
    Then there is the toss up of Solomon.

    This is where it all stood as of the last Newspoll.

    Morgan and Essential have picked up movement away from the ALP most recently, but until there is polling from the traditional pollsters, we can’t determine how big or real these shifts are.

    Besides, I would take all polling conducted now very cautiously.

  6. [Are their any anthropological observant participation studies of the motivation of asylum seekers, particularly in the final step of borading a boat?]

    I’m not aware of any that specific, b_G, but I’ll see what I can dig up.

    In the mean time this paper throws up a heap of interesting discussion about the manner in which particular forms of “social research” are interwoven with real human consequence in refugee situations. It focuses specifically on a Rwandan /UK situation, but similar issues have arisen wrt Australia’s means of dealing with people identified with different Afghan / Pakistan groups by our own authorities.

  8. Trying to find some authorative takes on the asylum issue.

    Here is the best snippet so far.

    [Malaysia is a natural gateway because it allows visa-free access for people of the Islamic faith. About 80 per cent of all asylum seekers from Iraq and Afghanistan pass through Malaysia en route to Australia. Many are then smuggled to Indonesia from where they either fly directly to Australia or go to ground in small fishing villages and ports while they await passage by boat.]

    http://dspace-prod1.anu.edu.au/bitstream/1885/41143/2/Keynotes-2.PDF

    What are we doing with Malaysia?

  9. What a laugh! A journo asks why spend on the NBN instead of putting the money into hospital and schools. Do these people ever really read the stuff the Govt. puts out.

    Conroy answered well – ‘we can walk and chew gum at the same time’.

    All Conroy needs to do every week is to get someone from an area that is benefitting from the NBN and get them on telly, radio, etc. That will shut the wangkers up.

  11. [gee you must be the only customer on that one, get real,
    i have the bill in front of me its 49,95 we did a little deal with them and for a few months now we have a 20 reduction on our phone rent but that finished soon.,]

    This is wholesale price… in other words the price your ISP pays Telstra for use of the line.

    You will never get NBN 12Mbit connection for $24 because thats their wholesale price to your ISP. Add another $35 and you’ll be closer to the mark.

    In other words under the NBN a 12Mbit connection will be around $60 a month, which is expensive for metro customers compared to the alternatives.

  12. [Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 12:38 pm | Permalink
    Aristotle

    Interesting analysis. Thanks.]

    Victoria it think we can enjoy christmas dont you.

  13. Diog like with truthy your problem isn’t always to do with facts you are probably 100% correct on facts you slam down as ‘the end’ it is just the facts you omit and the conclusions you draw that get you into strange territory!

  14. [laugh! A journo asks why spend on the NBN instead of putting the money into hospital and schools. Do these people ever really read the stuff the Govt. puts out.]

    well how uneducated is he ,cannot wait till he is in a far away palce gets bitten by a spider or snake and then is able to contact the local gp with his mobile phone through the NBN and he will be told how to look after it.

    this is part of the HEALTH SYSTEM i think it may be time to abolish the degree called journalism at all universities.
    are these people so uneducated

  15. my say

    I for one, will be celebrating Christmas with gutso. My father-in-law suffered a stroke in September, and he has recovered very well. We were very fortunate not to have lost him.

    I am sure that Julia is intelligent enough to understand the challenges being faced. She negotiated a minority govt, and I am sure she has the talent to achieve certain goals next year.

  18. WWP

    I didn’t actually draw a conclusion. However Hillary is ultimately responsible for what happens in State and she must share some of the blame for the 250,000 cables leaked to Wikileaks.

  19. my say

    I read recently that the are three times more journalism students in Uni, then there are positions available for them when they finish. It was also noted that the art of true journalism is dying.

  20. [What a laugh! A journo asks why spend on the NBN instead of putting the money into hospital and schools. Do these people ever really read the stuff the Govt. puts out.]

    Sounds like the press gallery are as clueless as the coalition when it comes to broadband technology.

  21. @GeeWizz/161,

    You must of been bloody blind, he did say $49.95 he currently pays, so anything less for better value is good.

    I’m pretty sure he was general quoting.

    btw, 5,900 per day to rollout during construction.

  22. fess

    [So Obeid is leaving?

    Good riddance is all I can say.]

    KK has poured cold water on the suggestion saying it was just speculation. It’s certainly not definite.

  23. Wilkie’s press conference today on the Asylum Seeker issue (carried live by ABC24) is well worth catching up with if possible. I didn’t hear all of it myself (i was in a medical waiting room with a lot of noise around and couldn’t catch it all) but what I did hear was very good indeed. Definitely wont make Abbott happy! 😉

  24. PM and Conroy are on top of the facts and figures. There’s a lot of “I don’t accept the assumptions in that question.”

    Conroy is taking over from the PM in answering lots of questions. He seems to be on a high.

    Idiot journos keep wanting to know the retail costs. The government isn’t biting.

  25. The Diogs” fence sitting” shuffle.

    It’s all Hillary’s fault, to she’s in charge, to some blame, to Wikileaks weren’t that important, to Hillary for POTUS.

    It’s a wonder to watch!

  26. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 12:49 pm | Permalink
    my say

    I read recently that the are three times more journalism students in Uni, then there are positions available for them when they finish. It was also noted that the art of true journalism is dying.]

    whats the TCE score these days may be it should be like medicine 98 that would sort out the straw from the chaff

  38. The ABC leads with “A decade to wait for superfast Broadband”. Wrong. It is being rolled out now. More than 1.3 million homes, hospitals, etc will be connected by mid 2013. Don’t expect a single positive news story on today’s release of the NBN business plan in the Murdoch, Fairfax media or the ABC. They will all find a negagtive lead angle. It’s the way of the world these days. Find a critic – any critic – and lead with that.

  43. al

    It’s a shoddy story and headline. What is much more important would be a median or mean time for how long it will take to be connected.

    Does anyone know what it actually is?

  44. i lovewd the way Julia lectued the js to realise this broad will be faster even though the word 12 mg is being used, that any one has ever seen before.
    I wonder what Mr. Quckly thinks of the journo who say they dont get it.
    o dear and i thought all young people new about this stuff

  47. Sadly that headline is what one expects from the ABC these days. And I see the Coalition trolls are hard at work in the comments section.

  48. NBN replaces fixed line and Internet – does that price cover wholesale for both or just Internet? If both it is a different math. I should cut it off I pay a fortune for fixed line that is barely used.

  49. [victoria
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    b-g

    do you recall JWH and KR when they spoke?]

    Kevin deliberately and conscientiously changed his voice for different events. He had a limited range, but he did have a range.

    JWH likewise.

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