Morgan: 50-50

“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,358 comments on “Morgan: 50-50”

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  1. who doubt our PM’s priority in relation to the terrible tragedy earlier this week

    I certainly don’t doubt that she is serious about this issue and believes it to be very important. I didn’t think her execution of her duties was adequate in the sense of being a leader.

    My criticism of Gillard is also on the front of abilities, though I note she has a lot of Howard in her.

  2. finny
    [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, December 17, 2010 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    Sorry William,

    It is norty calling that fetid, ghoulish, infected-acne-pustule, who makes hay from on the deaths of asylum seeker children, a ring-worm.

    I won’t do it again.]
    Nah, it wasn’t ‘tapeworm’.

  4. Finny,
    Here is the ppp definition.

    [A nation’s GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices prevailing in the United States. This is the measure most economists prefer when looking at per-capita welfare and when comparing living conditions or use of resources across countries.]
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html

  5. [Sorry William,

    It is norty calling that fetid, ghoulish, infected-acne-pustule, who makes hay from on the deaths of asylum seeker children, a ring-worm.]

    “Immature” works better for me than “norty”.

  7. [I certainly don’t doubt that she is serious about this issue and believes it to be very important. I didn’t think her execution of her duties was adequate in the sense of being a leader.]
    And thou wouldst suggest?

  13. I thought it behoved me to check what Puff was responding to. Thus it was that I saw this for the first time.

    [Afghan Hazaar’s are white Anglo-saxons.]

    Which is GeeWizz/TTH “WTF?” moment number umpteen. Shortly after …

    [The majority of boatpeople are Afghans, and Afghans are of the caucasian race.]

    At this point I believe the penny drops. GW/TTH is so stupid he thinks the terms “white Anglo-Saxon” and “Caucasian” are interchangeable.

  15. Any sign of a Gillard apology yet.?????
    I been away for a few hours and thought I might have missed it !
    What are the chances ??

  16. Finny,
    [Puffy, are you immature?]
    Me? Let’s see, when confronted with complete and utter bustedry and I have to make a decision on whether I respond as a civilised human being with some immature barbs or go Conan the Barbarian, yeah…sometimes.

  18. So we know TP has gone all bitter and twisted but Labor ignores his sentiments at their peril. He is not the only Labor voter that thinks that way. Gillard has failed to impress as PM. Whilst I dont agree with TP’s proposition that she doesnt have the leadership skills, she has not been great so far and the PV is in the toilet. Better Labor realise that she needs to do better than just apply the just wait and see approach. The Abbott rabble are at 52-53 2PP. That is incredible

  26. [So we know TP has gone all bitter and twisted but Labor ignores his sentiments at their peril. He is not the only Labor voter that thinks that way. Gillard has failed to impress as PM. Whilst I dont agree with TP’s proposition that she doesnt have the leadership skills, she has not been great so far and the PV is in the toilet. Better Labor realise that she needs to do better than just apply the just wait and see approach. The Abbott rabble are at 52-53 2PP. That is incredible]

    Agreed, and her idea of a cross-party committee to investigate the Christmas Island disaster has gone down like a lead balloon, akin to the dud Citizens Assembly Climate Change idea. 😉

  31. [her idea of a cross-party committee to investigate the Christmas Island disaster has gone down like a lead balloon]
    The committee was not to “investigate”: it was to report and disseminate. Get it right!

  34. vp@119

    Any sign of a Gillard apology yet.?????

    Any sign of a deblonay, sort of, reasoned argument yet.????

    Deblonay isn’t exactly a lone voice on the call for a retraction by Gillard, and Ludlum is correct:

    Greens Senator Scott Ludlam says Ms Gillard must formally retract her comments.

    “There’s just some really important principles, not just fundamental legal principles, but obviously this gentleman has legal rights that should respected,” he said.

    “I think it’s very, very awkward for the Prime Minister and the Attorney-General to be rushing to judgment before any charges have even been brought in relation to these matters.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/17/3096454.htm

  42. Gusface,

    Does your bro speak Swedish? If he does, what do you think of the tonality of the language. I love it: very sing-song. ABBA in Swedish is the bees’ knees.

  43. 113

    He had better not go to Moscow at the moment (or have the differences exxplained or keep his mouth shut). Persons from the Caucasus are not popular with some elements there.

  44. I have read Greg Combets comments today re ETS and carbon tax.

    If people think Julia Gillard is being manipulated by the right wing of the party why is the CC issue high on her agenda for next year ?

  46. vp

    my youngest, connor, was entranced when bro rang wiffy (wife)

    connor reckons they were singing to each other

    🙂

    ps anna tried a few words but connor gave up

    😉

  47. Why the hell didn’t she just emphasise that the AFP and the relevant authorities + the coroner would investigate what had happened – that would have been the prudent approach.
    The next lot of polls will be horrendous for Labor, and Gillard hasn’t done them any favours with her recent strange comments on Wikileaks/Julian Assange.
    The one Federal minister who’s made any sense about Assange has been Rudd.

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