Morgan: 50-50

“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,358 comments on “Morgan: 50-50”

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  1. lizzie @ 1243,

    [I worry over that. They have no need to take a tough attitude. That’s what I meant when I said there was enough evidence for them to defend a more humanitarian atance. They don’t have to give in to the Libs criticisms.]

    It worries me too that Labor have lost their moral compass. Unfortunately Abbott’s been playing the ALP like a fiddle since he came in dragging them further and further to the Right. They don’t have to go that way of course and could choose to stand up for what is right but they don’t seem too intersted in that.

  2. Adam

    I think Howard dragged the whole nation to the right. Labor just wants to survive in office atm and there are all the old dinosaurs in the Lib shadow cabinet who are echoing the Howard years.

  3. [1253 lizzie
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
    Adam

    I think Howard dragged the whole nation to the right. Labor just wants to survive in office atm and there are all the old dinosaurs in the Lib shadow cabinet who are echoing the Howard years.
    ]

    Agreed.

  4. SK:

    I’m not interested in what rusted on Greens voters think about Labor policies. They will always reject the ALP stance on anything, no matter how justified or appropriate it may be.

    I’m far more interested in winning back the heartland like vera.

  5. [Space Kidette
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 8:53 pm | Permalink
    Adam,

    All we really want is for Labor to stand tall and stand firm.
    ]

    Remember the last ALP PM to do that ??

    He is now Foriegn Minister 🙂

  6. [ confessions
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 8:56 pm | Permalink
    SK:

    I’m not interested in what rusted on Greens voters think about Labor policies. They will always reject the ALP stance on anything, no matter how justified or appropriate it may be.

    I’m far more interested in winning back the heartland like vera.
    ]

    Hear Hear.

  7. confessions @ 1256 with some well timed hackery.

    FWIW I’m no rusted on Greens voters given I voted for them for the first time this year.

  8. There’s a reason why Labor lost what 16 seats and the Greens vote is now at an all-time high. If given the choice between the right-wing Liberal Party and the centre-right Labor Party it’s no surprise a lot of people chose to vote for the real thing.

  9. [confessions @ 1256 with some well timed hackery.]

    Hmmm. I seem to recall we’ve been through this before. Your own definition of ‘hack’ rules out people like me.

    Which is why I laugh at the term ‘hack’ used as an insult. Life is far greyer than you perceive.

  10. [ jaundiced view
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
    Frank Calabrese@1240

    Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    Is that the official WA Labor position, or is it just another product of the intellect and insight of a squidgy worm?
    ]

    Another person who post 816 applies to 🙂

  11. [I’m afraid the Truthies and the racist underbelly would elect an Abbott Govt in a heartbeat.

    Sad, but true.]
    So the socially conservative Labor supporters are too scared for Labor to take a principled stance. What makes them think that the racist underbelly is voting for Labor anyway? And the underbelly won’t have the chance to vote for Labor or otherwise unless the indies lose confidence in the government. Every indication is that the indies are less racist and reactionary than the general population or Labor itself and won’t defect from Labor if it adopts a more sympathetic stance.

  12. [Hmmm. I seem to recall we’ve been through this before. Your own definition of ‘hack’ rules out people like me.

    Which is why I laugh at the term ‘hack’ used as an insult. Life is far greyer than you perceive.]

    Interesting post given you’re a staunch supporter of one particular party and I’m not.

  13. [ It’s Time
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:09 pm | Permalink
    I’m afraid the Truthies and the racist underbelly would elect an Abbott Govt in a heartbeat.

    Sad, but true.

    So the socially conservative Labor supporters are too scared for Labor to take a principled stance. What makes them think that the racist underbelly is voting for Labor anyway? And the underbelly won’t have the chance to vote for Labor or otherwise unless the indies lose confidence in the government. Every indication is that the indies are less racist and reactionary than the general population or Labor itself and won’t defect from Labor if it adopts a more sympathetic stance.
    ]

    Believe it or not, those who traditionally support Labor, squirm at the thought of them being progressive on AS – see the 2001 Election.

  14. [Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    Is that the official WA Labor position, or is it just another product of the intellect and insight of a squidgy worm?

    Another person who post 816 applies to ]

    you keeping a list?

  15. [ Gusface
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
    Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    Is that the official WA Labor position, or is it just another product of the intellect and insight of a squidgy worm?

    Another person who post 816 applies to

    you keeping a list?
    ]

    And Checking it twice 🙂

  16. [What makes them think that the racist underbelly is voting for Labor anyway? ]

    How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big. Labor’s only got to lose a few per cent of them to the Liberals.. and you’ve got Abbott and their AS policy.

    I suppose that result would give the self-righteous something to really whinge about and feel affirmed.

  17. [Gusface
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
    Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    sadly, you probably believe this piece of tripe
    ]

    As opposed to Assange’s Supporters being fed it 🙂

  18. It’s Time @ 1266,

    [So the socially conservative Labor supporters are too scared for Labor to take a principled stance. What makes them think that the racist underbelly is voting for Labor anyway? And the underbelly won’t have the chance to vote for Labor or otherwise unless the indies lose confidence in the government. Every indication is that the indies are less racist and reactionary than the general population or Labor itself and won’t defect from Labor if it adopts a more sympathetic stance.]

    It does seem odd that the ALP (and some of it’s rusted on supporters) now find themselves to the Right of the Liberal Party’s Petro Georgiou.

    Strange times indeed.

  19. [Interesting post given you’re a staunch supporter of one particular party and I’m not.]

    I knew you’d try to back away from the very definition you provided. How cowardly.

  20. Righto, who has got them? Return them to their rightful owner please.

    [The privacy watchdog, the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), has launched an investigation into claims that vital emails between senior executives and journalists on the News of the World have been “lost” while being transported to India, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    Experts fear the missing emails – on computer hard disk drives that have reportedly vanished – could have major implications for the multiple investigations into claims the newspaper was involved in widespread hacking into the phone messages of targets from the worlds of politics, royalty and entertainment.

    The investigation will add to mounting pressure on Andy Coulson, press secretary to the Prime Minister, David Cameron, and a former editor of the News of the World. Coulson, who denies any knowledge of the hacking, resigned from his post after Clive Goodman, the paper’s former royal correspondent, was convicted of hacking the phones of Prince William’s aides.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/phone-hacking-news-of-the-world-emails-lost-on-the-way-to-india-2164312.html

  21. [ Cuppa
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:17 pm | Permalink
    What makes them think that the racist underbelly is voting for Labor anyway?

    How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big. Labor’s only got to lose a few per cent of them to the Liberals.. and you’ve got Abbott and their AS policy.

    I suppose that result would give the self-righteous something to really whinge about and feel affirmed.
    ]

    They are like Drug addicts who prefer the real thing (The Libs) rather than Methadone (Labor)

  22. [How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big.]

    It should be able to be quantifiable simply because of all the polling that’s taken place on the issue of AS.

  23. [How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big. ]
    How big? Who does the racist underbelly normally vote for anyway? Will Labor suffer a net loss of votes if it provides a more humanitarian solution to asylum seekers? If you don’t know then don’t make unsupported assertions Cuppa.

  24. Although that pre-supposes that meaningful questions have been asked in the first place. Simply asking which party’s policy is preferred doesn’t necessarily elucidate peoples’ motivations and justifications.

  25. [1280 It’s Time
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
    How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big.

    How big? Who does the racist underbelly normally vote for anyway? Will Labor suffer a net loss of votes if it provides a more humanitarian solution to asylum seekers? If you don’t know then don’t make unsupported assertions Cuppa.
    ]

    Another one who has forgotten the 2001 Election.

  26. [How big? Who does the racist underbelly normally vote for anyway? Will Labor suffer a net loss of votes if it provides a more humanitarian solution to asylum seekers? If you don’t know then don’t make unsupported assertions Cuppa.]

    The only assumption I made was that lots of Australians are racist. You’re free to dispute that of course, but I think we both know it’s true.

    Looking at the closeness of the election, plus the polls since, Labor needs to hold all the votes it can. Labor is the only thing standing between the Liberals and them putting in place their AS policy.

    It’s easy for Greens and the like to stand on the sidelines, being sanctimonious towards all and sundry, peeling votes off Labor, all the while knowing they will never be in government to make the hard, pragmatic decisions.

  27. [Another one who has forgotten the 2001 Election.]
    Frank

    Please disentangle the AS impact from the 9/11 security issue in 2001 and tell me how many Labor voters now are persuaded by the asylum seeker fears.

  28. [It worries me too that Labor have lost their moral compass. Unfortunately Abbott’s been playing the ALP like a fiddle since he came in dragging them further and further to the Right. They don’t have to go that way of course and could choose to stand up for what is right but they don’t seem too intersted in that.]

    Labors current policy seems to be to pretending to be tough while doing absolutely nothing and hoping the issue will fix itself.

    It of course won’t and will get worse, which is why it’s plain insanity.

    Labor really only has 2 choices on this issue. Open borders with tens of thousands of people flooding in on boats per year, or getting tough, and I mean properly tough and putting in measures to stop the boats.

    It’s silly to assume that numbers have stabilised in boat arrivals. 2900 in 2009. 6200 in 2010. Whats 2011 going to be like? 10,000?

    What about in 3 years time? 50,000?

    Is this the lefts plan? To just let the situation escalate and do nothing?

  29. [Looking at the closeness of the election, plus the polls since, Labor needs to hold all the votes it can. Labor is the only thing standing between the Liberals and them putting in place their AS policy. ]
    Cuppa, if you can’t even quantify how many Labor voters would be scared off by a more humanitarian asylum seeker policy then you’re not even half way to justifying your assertion.

    Does this mean that Labor will suffer policy paralysis for fear of putting a few people offside? Why bother having a Labor government then?

  30. It’s Time,

    Labor is being wedged on this issue by the Liberals on the right and the Greens on the left. Well, that’s fine – you just go on wedging your little heart out from your side … and soon enough that’ll help to put the Liberals in government.

    Then you’ll really get something to complain and feel self-righteous about.

  31. The spectator
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 8:40 pm | Permalink
    Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    Name one person Assange has tortured, murdered, comitted genocide toward? As I guessed you can’t.

    Don’t know about Assange, probably zero, but Frank, probably a dozen or so, daily.

  32. [How big IS the racist underbelly? Nobody knows for sure, but there’s no doubt it’s big. ]

    Polls consistantly show strong support from the public for refugee’s. The front door ones.

    These same polls show consistantly strong support on stopping the boats from the same people surveyed.

    Perhaps someone can explain how they get from that Australians are racist.

  33. [ Cuppa
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink
    How big? Who does the racist underbelly normally vote for anyway? Will Labor suffer a net loss of votes if it provides a more humanitarian solution to asylum seekers? If you don’t know then don’t make unsupported assertions Cuppa.

    The only assumption I made was that lots of Australians are racist. You’re free to dispute that of course, but I think we both know it’s true.

    Looking at the closeness of the election, plus the polls since, Labor needs to hold all the votes it can. Labor is the only thing standing between the Liberals and them putting in place their AS policy.

    It’s easy for Greens and the like to stand on the sidelines, being sanctimonious towards all and sundry, peeling votes off Labor, all the while knowing they will never be in government to make the hard, pragmatic decisions.
    ]

    Totally agree

    [ It’s Time
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:44 pm | Permalink
    Another one who has forgotten the 2001 Election.

    Frank

    Please disentangle the AS impact from the 9/11 security issue in 2001 and tell me how many Labor voters now are persuaded by the asylum seeker fears.
    ]

    See Cuppa’s response.

  34. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 9:55 pm | Permalink
    The spectator
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 8:40 pm | Permalink
    Assange is no more a hero than Saddam Hussien.

    Name one person Assange has tortured, murdered, comitted genocide toward? As I guessed you can’t.

    Don’t know about Assange, probably zero, but Frank, probably a dozen or so, daily.
    ]

    Anorther candidate for post 816.

  35. Lots of common ground here one would imagine. A good read.

    The Sounds of Silence:
    Reactions to Political Despair

    By Bernard Weiner
    Co-Editor, The Crisis Papers

    December 8, 2010

    [By nature, I’m usually an optimist. I’ve experienced and studied enough history to understand its cyclical nature and its ability to house enormous positive/negative contradictions. The worst of times can also lead to the best of times. What goes around can come around. Every cloud can have a silver lining. Etc.

    But those more positive views are overshadowed these days by a quickly darkening horizon. Hemingway’s “shitstorm” has arrived, with a vengeance. As with so many citizens dedicated to positive activism, I am politically discouraged, demoralized, depressed. We want to find solace and hope enough to pull us through the pit of despair yet again, but instead we run headlong into a brick wall of voters’ voluntary ignorance, a growing authoritarian fascism, continuing imperialist military policies, an appalling lack of backbone in our leaders, politicians and pundits who brazenly lie and get away with it.

    This has happened so often in the past several years that we find ourselves beset by futility, dejection, despondancy. Nothing seems to work to turn our self-destructive system from disaster.

    In short, American society seems to be well and truly f’d, with few escape routes evident. Consider just seven examples:]

    http://www.crisispapers.org/essays10w/silence.htm

  36. [ Some good news re AS
    All the fuss has died down the at Inverbrackie detention centre now that people have started moving in

    Thanks vera – that’s great and BK will be pleased that some in his area have more sense than the nutters who were bussed in to protest.

    The Churches and others who came out in support deserve huge cheers.]
    BH
    I’m just doing a PB catch-up.
    Yes, I am pleased that the 81 asylum seekers have settled in without too much in the way of overt protest. There are still several hundred more to come in the next weeks so it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds as they become visible within the community.

  37. [ Frank

    Please disentangle the AS impact from the 9/11 security issue in 2001 and tell me how many Labor voters now are persuaded by the asylum seeker fears.

    See Cuppa’s response.]
    Frank, that means that you, like Cuppa, don’t know what the possible electoral impact could be for Labor. You are sounding like Bitar and Arbib who are continually jumping at shadows.

  38. Cuppa

    It’s easy for Greens and the like to stand on the sidelines, being sanctimonious towards all and sundry, peeling votes off Labor

    There seems to be very little understanding among party supporters of what happened to Labor this year and why the primary vote tanked. The votes weren’t peeled off by anyone. They peeled themselves off when Labor decided to become a policy free zone and embrace pragmatism. So what demographic exactly is the party trying to attract to bump up the PV into election-winning range with its lurch to the right? Erstwhile Liberal supporters I guess.

    Hasn’t worked yet though, so maybe they should try to win back the progressive vote by dumping hollow pragmatism and going hard with the correct policy on climate (18% by 2020) and compassion on refugees (on shore processing). In minority government they are going to be forced to be more progressive than the Libs to keep the Greens and indies happy, so they won’t get Liberal voters anyway.

  39. [ It’s Time
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:02 pm | Permalink
    Frank

    Please disentangle the AS impact from the 9/11 security issue in 2001 and tell me how many Labor voters now are persuaded by the asylum seeker fears.

    See Cuppa’s response.

    Frank, that means that you, like Cuppa, don’t know what the possible electoral impact could be for Labor. You are sounding like Bitar and Arbib who are continually jumping at shadows.
    ]

    No,

    We live in the real world.

    Deep down, swinging voters will jump to Abbott in a heartbeat if Labor concedes to even one aspect of Greens AS policy.

    Fact.

  40. [We live in the real world.

    Deep down, swinging voters will jump to Abbott in a heartbeat if Labor concedes to even one aspect of Greens AS policy.

    Fact.]
    This issue will not cause the indies to jump to support Abbott and therefore there will not be election for a least 2 years. That’s the real world. More jumping at shadows by the socially conservative Labor wing.

  41. Lizzie

    you may perhaps misundrstand that Labor polisy is underpinned by Labor’s belieif it actualy wants to prevent boat people drowning , & so therefore wants a regional process centre closest to where boats leave It is not public knowledge extent of how many do drown

    Greens polisy in practical terms is comfortable that boat people do drown

    Liberal polisy is ‘turn back boats’

    Labor’s polisy is th only humane one to prevent drownings , Labor has also added kids to its mix , Labor abolished TPR’s , Labor uses CI that is direct under UNHRC unlike Naru was , Labor A-S processes is ASAP unlike Howard ‘s did using ‘delays’ , Labors polisy furthermore protects our oz Borders as a responsibel Govt should do to check health & security status of boat arrivals , and Labor’s polis also leads to a planned sensible regional process as its not just an oz only isue because A-S is a regional issue , and region process also will furthar reduce drownings Labor looks at A-S peoples as humans whereas Abbot looks at them as th no of boats

    Actualy A-S is easy to reduce to one liners of either feel good nothings in substanse OR of fear & wedging ‘ and we get BOTH here as well on PB , by both of Labor’s 2 politcal opponents and by msn

    Whereas what I’ve listed shows A-S needs as multi dimension approach & cring for A-S that Labor polisy does provide , if we care to get reel results However getting it thru msn filters is diff

    Factually , this above humane Labor polisy is blatantly is not reponding to Abbott’s unhumane dog whistles , but in defianse of Abboot view hence his vicous anti labor election attacks

  42. [It’s Time
    Posted Sunday, December 19, 2010 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
    We live in the real world.

    Deep down, swinging voters will jump to Abbott in a heartbeat if Labor concedes to even one aspect of Greens AS policy.

    Fact.

    This issue will not cause the indies to jump to support Abbott and therefore there will not be election for a least 2 years. That’s the real world. More jumping at shadows by the socially conservative Labor wing.
    ]

    Tony won’t NEED the Indies one bit – He will get in all on his own 🙂

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