After the blast

Some scattered thoughts on the Victorian election:

• Hats off to Peter Brent of Mumble. His pre-campaign post of October 21 was outstanding in its prescience, and his post-mortem from yesterday said it all in 278 words. I am particularly keen on the idea that the late swing to the Coalition was not so much a reaction to campaign events as something that was always going to happen when minds became focused. This happened uncommonly late in the piece due to the national politics fatigue which has inspired Possum to write off the significance of any federal polling conducted before the new year.

• This is not to say that Labor didn’t make errors, and that the attack ads on Ted Baillieu’s real estate undertakings weren’t among them. Indeed, it may even have been enough to push them over the edge. The Roy Morgan Reactor “worm” responses to various party ads are instructive: the Baillieu Knight Frank ad was easily the most poorly received. The Liberals’ positive ads also went down a lot better than Labor’s, another symptom of the inherent difficulties faced by an ageing government. I suspect the Liberals did very well out of the message that voters should avoid signing on for 15 years of Labor government, which doubtless tapped into awareness of the situation north of the border.

• The debacle for the Greens ran deeper than a simple failure to win lower seats which might be blamed on Liberal preferences. Their 10.6 per cent primary vote was 2.1 per cent lower than at the federal election, and they seem likely to lose one of their three seats in the upper house. My guess is that extravagant claims for their place in a new paradigm lost them support they would normally get from voters who are indifferent to them ideologically, but simply seeking somewhere to park a protest vote. Compounding this was the Liberals’ preference decision, which as well as being damaging in purely instrumental terms reinforced perceptions of a party with a hard ideological edge. It would also have had many questioning their competence, and there was no figure in the state party of Bob Brown’s authority to help negate the idea.

• The election provided a further blow to new paradigm talk by producing the state or federal election result since 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates won election to the lower house. The defeat of the Assembly’s sole independent, Craig Ingram in Gippsland East, would be troubling news for Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, with Ingram citing locals’ desire to avoid a repeat of the federal election aftermath as a reason for the fatal 14.1 per cent drop in his primary vote.

• Here’s a colour-coded map giving an idea of the swings recorded across Victoria. Labor-versus-Coalition figures in Mildura, Gippsland East and the four inner-city seats have been obtained by using preference flows from the last election. Apart from Labor’s relatively strong performance in the north and north-west of the state, nothing particularly stands out. Sophomore surges are evident in Ferntree Gully, Kilsyth, Hastings, Evelyn and especially Morwell, which Labor were surprised to lose in 2006 and are now locked out by an impressive 15 per cent margin for Nationals member Russell Northe. This is part of an ongoing story of Labor decay in the Latrobe Valley which has been evident at state and federal level over the past five years in particular. Retiring member effects explain the slight swing to Labor in Murray Valley, and perhaps also the heavy swing against them in Essendon. I wouldn’t read too much into the swing to Labor in Mildura, where comparisons are complicated by the fact that there was a sitting independent last time, which may have corrupted my preference calculation.

vic2010 - swing map

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,039 comments on “After the blast”

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  1. Yes, if only a new Government (with essentially the same revenue base) could fix up everything and please everyone!

    I would love it if Ted and co could massively improve public transport, road congestion, public hospitals, and all without costing me an extra cent. Like all incoming governments, though, reality bites, and in 4 years there will be people saying “but you said you were going to do…”

    I especially like the “open government” promise – so reminiscent of 1999, and an episode of “Yes, Minister”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AubK02DCkT0

  2. I assume that Peta Duke now has no incentive not to spill everything, though the Libs have no reason to keep her on and good reasons not to, so maybe she won’t be in any mood to talk.

  3. Triton,
    Well indeed, I wonder, what does happen to the 700 odd spin doctors, maybe the two or three who have been haunting us here, belting out the message, running the lines, etc,. Where to now gentlemen.?
    I doubt that the fibs will want to continue the overpayed contracts of these sycophants.

  4. Morgan having a laff I think!~ Poll of 146

    Interviewing in Victoria straddled the recent Victorian election. A sample of 146 Victorian electors was interviewed since the L-NP victory in the Victorian election — which we understand is a very small sample — although it shows a clear indication of a Liberal honeymoon. Following are the ‘headline’ results:

    Two-Party preferred: L-NP (57%) cf. ALP (43%);

    Better Premier: Ted Baillieu (48.5%, up 9.5% since prior to the election) cf. John Brumby (25.5%, down 18%) — although Brumby has now stepped down as the Leader of the ALP to be replaced by former Health Minister Daniel Andrews;

    Job Approval — Ted Baillieu: Approve (40%); Disapprove (13%); can’t say (47%).

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4609/

  5. Barking

    given that to arrive at the figure of ‘700 spin doctors’ you have to chuck in everyone who works in communications across every sector of government, yes, most of them will continue to be employed doing exactly what they’re doing, as they were employed by the department, not the party.

    A handful of people connected with the Premier’s and some of the Ministries (again, not all, because most press people are public servants, not party appointees) might lose their jobs, but I’d be willing to lay even money that, in four years time, if you do an audit of ‘spin doctors’ using exactly the same criteria used by the Libs you’ll find the numbers haven’t changed – if anything, given the Libs’ propensity for using public funds for political purposes, they’ll probably have increased.

    And I highly doubt that anyone is employed by the Labor party to monitor blogs like this one, let alone comment here (not saying some don’t on their own initiative, but again I’d doubt it, or they’d run a better brand of argument out in the electorate than they have been doing…)

  6. [Looks like he couldn’t wait to give the libs a plug]

    I’ll say. “A honeymoon”? The govt was only sworn in the other day.

  7. vera
    Posted Friday, December 3, 2010 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    “Morgan having a laff I think!~ Poll of 146”

    I do assume 146 itself is a magical figure for a Pollsters credability in Morgans eyes

  8. All Liberal containing governments in Victoria since 1955 have won Essendon except in their final term. It is looking like this predictor seat is predicting a 1 term government.

  9. Didn’t Morgan use similar large samples to predict crushing Green victories in inner Melbourne?

    You’d think he’d have learnt a little caution since then.

  10. Zoom , you’d think so , he seems more driven by getting publicity (or income) , than doing a reasonable size sample Some of his comentary on his own Polls is a ‘big miss’

    that ‘left’ slippage trend with footscray as an eg , is a challenge , but given Brumby Govt had a 20% by 2020 and did pass gay IVF and parenting rites that was reported , it does seems communicaton and good polisy is just not enuf , and by a long way

  11. What a waste of money. Yeh for what stupid reason do we need this poll.

    Fair dinkum if their is one thing this year that politicians should take heed of and that polls.
    Because they have failed to provide results adequately until two days before elections.
    Meaning if you think you going to win six months from an election because of poll numbers than you are in a dream world.

  12. My understanding is that within a minster’s office there are two types of staff, one being departmental staff on secondment. they have mostly returned to their home departments while group two is the minister’s personal staff, they have moved on.

  13. [Steve Newnham would not have lost this election. He would have put the Greens in their place.]

    Seems to me, GG, that the primary that Labor lost this election was that they spent way, way, too much time trying to “put The Greens in their place” and bugger all focusing on the Libs (who were, of course, more than happy to encourage them along that path and who reaped the benefit in spades as the only party that could really kick them out of government).

  14. [ Rod Hagen
    Posted Friday, December 3, 2010 at 9:33 pm | Permalink
    Steve Newnham would not have lost this election. He would have put the Greens in their place.

    Seems to me, GG, that the primary that Labor lost this election was that they spent way, way, too much time trying to “put The Greens in their place” and bugger all focusing on the Libs (who were, of course, more than happy to encourage them along that path and who reaped the benefit in spades as the only party that could really kick them out of government).
    ]

    Yet the Green Cultists are quite happy to recieve Liberal preferences in ALP seats so they can gain power.

    It seems the cultists are now suffering loose bowels now that the ALP ghave wised up and aren’t prepared to be double crossed by a so-called “left” party who are more than happy to get elected on the back of Liberal voters.

  15. A few months ago we saw the pic of Julia signed the agreement with Bob Brown and other Greens in Canberra to gather their support for the Labor Government in Canberra
    I must have missed something. Gillard seemed willing enough then !.
    Do Frank and GG repudiate the PM’s judgement,and her regular meetings with Bob Brown and Adam Bandt ??
    As to Newnham”putting the Greens in their place”that is one of the silliest remarks I have heard in this whole debate.
    The ALP needed Green prefs in 21 seats in Vic…and it got them !!85% of them

    If the Greens had issued open tickets in this area Labor would have lost Eltham and Ivanhoe and been struggling in several other seats. Without Green support Labor has little chance of ever winning again in Victoria….Ask Daniel Andrews if he wants a fight with the Greens at the moment !

    and those silly right-wing ALP people people who want to wage major battles with the Greens,seem to ignore the fact of how formidable Bailleau and the Libs will now be and how hard to defeat…that’s the real battleground and that’s a hard battle to win

    As for Newnham putting the Greens in place whatever does that nonsense mean.??
    ..Have you asked Julia Gillard about this ???. Does she want to not have Adam Bandt vote in the House…or the Greens votes in the Senate !
    I think not!

  16. [ deblonay
    Posted Friday, December 3, 2010 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
    A few months ago we saw the pic of Julia signed the agreement with Bob Brown and other Greens in Canberra to gather their support for the Labor Government in Canberra
    I must have missed something. Gillard seemed willing enough then !.
    Do Frank and GG repudiate the PM’s judgement,and her regular meetings with Bob Brown and Adam Bandt ??
    As to Newnham”putting the Greens in their place”that is one of the silliest remarks I have heard in this whole debate.
    The ALP needed Green prefs in 21 seats in Vic…and it got them !!85% of them

    If the Greens had issued open tickets in this area Labor would have lost Eltham and Ivanhoe and been struggling in several other seats. Without Green support Labor has little chance of ever winning again in Victoria….Ask Daniel Andrews if he wants a fight with the Greens at the moment !

    and those silly right-wing ALP people people who want to wage major battles with the Greens,seem to ignore the fact of how formidable Bailleau and the Libs will now be and how hard to defeat…that’s the real battleground and that’s a hard battle to win

    As for Newnham putting the Greens in place whatever does that nonsense mean.??
    ..Have you asked Julia Gillard about this ???. Does she want to not have Adam Bandt vote in the House…or the Greens votes in the Senate !
    I think not!
    ]

    See my 967 and go and change your undies:-)

  17. Frank
    I hope you can carry on a more adult debate than make juvenile remarks about “loose bowels” and “undies”
    Such unpleasant comments devalue this blog site as a place for rational discussion,and make it hard to take you seriously!

  18. The media’s focus was on beating up a Labor v Greens contest; Labor’s focus was, as usual and quite rightly, on defeating the Libs.

    And the Greens can offer all the open tickets they want to, it makes very little difference to where their preferences end up.

    The only reason there is any focus on doing deals with the Greens in the Lower House is to secure deals for the Upper House, where very few voters, Green or otherwise, bother to vote below the line (Possum or someone; care to do a comparison? How many followers of any party -as judged by their first preference votes – determine their own preferences in the UH? Does this correlate to those who do in the lower?)

    If we’re going to critique Labor’s campaign solely in terms of what was reported in the msm we’re going to miss important stuff. Of course, we can’t ignore how the media portrayed events, and we need to work out how the media game can be played to our advantage, but on the other hand, you can’t blame the campaign for the coverage.

    Personally, I’d like to see more focus on preselecting the kind of candidates who, like Jo and Joe and Jacinta, win seats off the other party and then keep them in defiance of the odds (the two Joes have been written off in every election they’ve contested).

    Do that, and a lot of the other issues will take care of themselves.

    One of the stories of the last three elections for Labor has been the gradual but deliberate replacement of Jo/Joe types with people who were owed factional favours, with no thought as to whether they would make effective local members.

  19. William Bowe

    “Compounding this was the Liberals’ preference decision, which as well as being damaging in purely instrumental terms reinforced perceptions of a (Greens) party with a hard ideological edge”

    causing voters to shift decisive votes from Labor to Liberal ,who didn’t wish a Labor Govt associated in an ‘allianse with Greens Party with a (extreme) “hard ideological edge” , a point reinforsed well by Balleau , and espec seeing it had been published Greens were chasing only Labor seats So Greens on these 2 points did elect Ballaeu

    GG ‘Steve Newnham would not have lost this election. He would have put the Greens in their place.’ he would hav countered th above voter perseption of Greens toxic status with voters by attack Shorten says Libs GAINED votes by there pref Greens last

    whilst Greens bloggers is uncomfort with such voter toxicness to them , its reality

  20. and I DO suspect there was some underlay of vote discontent with Labor over trains , myki etc which is fair enuf after 3 terms , but I think a reduced Labor govt was likely because there were INITIALY no baseball bats , until Balleau’s decsive decision saying Greens is last and so correctly reinforsed thpose voter perseptions casting Greens with a hard ideological edge” which focused Voters , and there undrlaying discontent

  21. [ deblonay
    Posted Friday, December 3, 2010 at 11:47 pm | Permalink
    Frank
    I hope you can carry on a more adult debate than make juvenile remarks about “loose bowels” and “undies”
    Such unpleasant comments devalue this blog site as a place for rational discussion,and make it hard to take you seriously!
    ]

    Diddums.

    Fact is the Green cult are scared that Labor are going to do them slowly and bowel movemnts and changinging of underwear is the result.

    Or shall I place a bulk order with Windscreen O’Brien to attend Greens HQ to replace all those shattered Glass Jaws ?

  22. had argumnet last nite at Branch about re incr local branchs decisions vs h’/0 re local candidates select as again a good local member ties into under lay subjext of my prev post of countering Greens AND th Liberals locally , knows area & can more effective distinguish Labor vs othr 2 Partys th subject of prev post , & also be better eqiped to counter ‘smear’ & put up positive local actions proposed

  23. Ron in 273 wrire
    “I DO suspect that there was some vote(sic) underlay of discontent with Labor over trains .Myki..” so Ron says.. if .I translate him correctly!

    WOW…an admission that Labor’s defeat wasn’t solely due to the Greens…Ron watch out or Frank will worry about your underwear !

  24. [ deblonay
    Posted Saturday, December 4, 2010 at 12:24 am | Permalink
    Ron in 273 wrire
    “I DO suspect that there was some vote(sic) underlay of discontent with Labor over trains .Myki..” so Ron says.. if .I translate him correctly!

    WOW…an admission that Labor’s defeat wasn’t solely due to the Greens…Ron watch out or Frank will worry about your underwear !
    ]

    Ron’s underwear is ffine.

    I’d be more worried about your own and otgher cultist’s.

  25. New Morgan Poll on NSW … says that Lib primary vote in NSW is 53%
    I would have expected it to be higher
    The ALP is down to 22%
    The Green. and Independents have a combined vote of 25%
    The Labor-Green-Indep primary vote combined is 47%

    The two PP is 65/35

  26. Rob Hudson,the defeated Labor member for Bentleigh in Friday’s Age lists the chaos on the suburban railway system as the number one reasons for his loss.of his seat.
    Three other Frankston line seats were also lost.too…..

    He had thousands of phone calls apparently from angry locals ,especially angry about the cancellations of many AM expresses to the city,and the running of all-stops trains instead in the AM peak…and had little help from higher-up when he sought help.

    Good to see some ALP members now facing reality…instead of going on about the wickedness of the Greens !!

  27. Guy Rundle on the Victorian election result:

    [Brumby Labor became such a creature of corporate power over everyday life?—?construction companies, retail giants, transport privateers?—?that it appeared at times to be a regional autocrat, administering the state on behalf of distant imperial rulers.

    Labor could have had that too. Its relationship to the construction industry didn’t have to be quite so slavish, its handling of public transport quite so lackadaisically incompetent. It could have combined its boosterism with an acknowledgement that people wanted a say in the way their lived environment is shaped, and get sick of being told that full-scale bulldozing is all that stands between the state and insolvency.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/11/30/rundle-elected-now-pass-the-gin-and-the-kool-mints/

  28. [Yet the Green Cultists…]

    [ Balleau’s decsive decision saying Greens is last and so correctly reinforsed thpose voter perseptions casting Greens with a hard ideological edge]

    This sort of stuff is simply silly, and cuts against zoomster’s suggestion that such views are really the product simply of an MSM campaign (though there is no doubt that the latter certainly are doing their best to stir such things up).

    Lets be blunt about this.

    THis election was lost to the coalition because 36.09% percent of the Victorian population voted for Labor and only 10.95% voted for the Greens.

    If either of these numbers had been a bit higher at the expense of the Coalition, then Brumby would still be in power.

    Fighting between yourselves isn’t going to change this and must surely be much more effectively limited to those seats where there is a genuine Labor / Green contest in future, rather than being allowed to become part of the game everywhere. What will change things is beating the Coalition in the suburban and regional seats with a combined vote that exceeds theirs.

  29. [THis election was lost to the coalition because 36.09% percent of the Victorian population voted for Labor and only 10.95% voted for the Greens.]

    should have read:

    [THis election was lost to the coalition because only 36.09% percent of the Victorian population voted for Labor and only 10.95% voted for the Greens.]

  30. [Its relationship to the construction industry didn’t have to be quite so slavish,]

    Just a tad over the top.

    Of course, Labor could have let all those construction workers be put out of work during the GFC….

    [ its handling of public transport quite so lackadaisically incompetent.]

    Yeeeeeppp.

    Noone predicted the growth of public transport usage in Vic, just as no one predicted the massive increase in population – and certainly no one did in the timescales necessary to deal with the problems created.

    This is one of the ‘victim of their own success’ stories – Labor increased public transport use so successfully (one of their core aims in government, and one of the planks in their program to deal with climate change) that they created a large core of dissatisfied customers, most of whom (by definition) hadn’t used the system for a long time.

    That said, everytime I went to Melbourne, my friends in suburbia would say wtte of ‘well, if you’re going to the city, catch the train…’ which, if the system was failing, they wouldn’t have done.

    I knew of more than one person who had moved to a regional city and was commuting from it to Melbourne because the train service had improved so much under Labor.

    Not saying all of this didn’t cost Labor votes, but I am disputing the idea that Labor was basically incompetent here. More like people simply accepted what they had as always being the way it was (always a problem for governments, and particularly as time wears on and memories of the way we were dims…), didn’t understand the issues and thought that things could be improved.

    So don’t think Ballieu will do any better.

    [It could have combined its boosterism with an acknowledgement that people wanted a say in the way their lived environment is shaped, ]

    Local communities make really really bad planning decisions. This is because they are usually driven by NIMBYism and emotion, rather than any long term thinking about the future and needs of their community – and they tend to interpret both of these through their own eyes, anyway.

    This is why planning laws exist to begin with: when we leave these decisions up to individuals, long term the result is disaster.

    As someone who worked intensively in the area of planning for a while, I used to summarise the situation thus: Planning laws exist to stop people doing what they want to.

    Which is, of course, why they cause so much outrage.

    Labor reformed planning to allow decision making to be more localised within a basic set of guidelines.

    Anyway, again, not an area where Ballieu is going to make any differences. I highly doubt the Liberal party is going to upset some of best friends.

    [get sick of being told that full-scale bulldozing is all that stands between the state and insolvency]

    Not sure if he’s talking trees or buildings here!!

    I’m assuming the first.

    GFC.

    Look, I’m not denying for a nanosecond that people did feel this, and that it cost Labor votes. I’m simply saying that, sorry, Ballieu ain’t going to be able to wave a magic wand and fix them all.

    Mind you, don’t mind journos setting up those expectations!

  31. I meant the second.

    Because interestingly, the article referred to doesn’t seem to deal with environmental issues at all.

    Which says something in itself.

  32. Zoomster is correct to point out that the Greens can run open tickets and it will mean very little.

    Ted’s seat of Hawthorn saw the Greens run an open ticket, the Greens polled over 4,000 primary votes yet close on 3,000 of them put the ALP ahead of the Liberals.

    Lets look at Essendon, a seat with justin Madden standing, now I am presuming the Greens perferenced the ALP and clearly many Green voters still overwhelmly placed Madden ahead of the Liberal eventhough the Greens claim to agree with his handling of the Planning portfolio

  33. Zoomster 983

    I think you confuse the excellent services of V-Line to the regional cities… to the much criticized suburban rail system under private ownership.

    Bracks did a great job with the Fast Trains on the provincial /regional lines
    Like you I know of people who live in pleasant small towns like Kyneton on the Bendigo line and commute to the city daily in about an hour in comfort. The same is true of Seymour,Macedon(a seat Labor retained by the way)Woodend,Ballan,and many other small places.with an hour or so of Melbourne.
    The good fast frequent trains have made Geelong a suburb of Melbourne,but with all the amenities of a regional city,great beaches nearby and of course a classic football team.
    Only one Labor seat.South Barwon , on Geelong’s outskirts,fell in the swing which was much smaller in the regional cities where the trains are much appreciated.

    The seat of Ripon. a largely rural seat with two small cities,Ararat and Maryborough in it,was notable as an area where Labor restored the two railway services that Kennett closed,and restored the historic station in Maryborough and reopened the station at Creswick,with another on the line at Clunes to reopen soon . The seat was retained by Labor ,on Green prefs,against a very big and well funded campaign by the coalition .

    So there are two starkly different pictures re rail transport in Victoria
    I would think the regional services are the best in Australia.and the rolling stock is world class,and operates from Southern Cross Station ,one of the most modern in Australia,and a splendid building too !
    Bracks achieved wonders here in that regard….but the election was lost along the rail lines in the suburbs. If Brumby could have done as well in Melbourne ,he would still be Premier today. These are the facts…and facts are better than dreams !

  34. Labor and the Victorian Election

    I have been through all the articles I have from the web re the election result. The quotations below are an obsessive collection given that I have chosen them to illustrate, at this stage, only one point (which will be at the end):

    ‘”We will be very strongly committing to fix the problems in Victoria,” Mr Baillieu said.
    ‘”There are many problems: we are going to fix the problems on our public transport system, we are going to fix problems with our policing and law and order . . . and we are going to fix problems in the health system, we are going to fix problems in the planning system, we are going to fix problems across Victoria . . . we do do have the team, we do have the plan. There is much to do.”’
    (I can fix it, yes I can, says Ted the Builder, Milanda Rout, The Australian, November 01, 2010)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/i-can-fix-it-yes-i-can-says-ted-the-builder/story-fn59niix-1225945861663

    ‘Labor devoted considerable resources to saving four inner-city seats from the Greens and five regional seats from the Liberals, but lost a swath of seats in the outer suburban areas.
    ‘Many Labor MPs say the heavy campaign focus on “greening” Mr Brumby and playing up his climate change credentials – especially after the loss of the federal seat of Melbourne to Greens MP Adam Bandt – along with the emphasis on the Premier’s connection to regional Victoria, lost them their traditional voters.
    ‘They say key issues such as the cost of living, lack of public transport and the “it’s time” factor, especially among older men, were the reasons behind the unexpected,huge swing in the outer-eastern and southeastern suburbs.’
    (‘Fighting Greens, ignoring suburbs’ to blame, Patricia Karvelas and Milanda Rout The Australian, November 29, 2010)
    (‘Fighting Greens, ignoring suburbs’ to blame, says Bill Shorten (on line title))
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fighting-greens-ignoring-suburbs-to-blame-says-bill-shorten/story-fn59niix-1225962416390

    ‘The Coalition fought a campaign focused on areas of service provision that the Brumby government had either neglected or been unable to maintain during a period of rapid economic growth. These included transport woes and the myki ticketing system, water strategy and the desalination plant, and increases in household bills.’

    ‘Ultimately, however, state governments are measured by their success in the provision of community services. And it is hardly a secret, especially in the outer suburbs, that after 11 years of Labor rule some basic services such as public transport are under-resourced, poorly maintained and poorly co-ordinated.’
    (After the landslide, voters will demand a new direction (editorial), The Age, November 29, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/after-the-landslide-voters-will-demand-a-new-direction-20101128-18cbr.html

    ‘To kick-start the process, here’s what mums and dads across Victoria are thinking right now.
    ‘We are sick of taking the train and seeing how many seats have been ripped out to make way for more standing passengers. It makes us feel like we don’t really matter.
    ‘We are sickened by the increase in power bills and the inability of politicians to come up with a proper solution for rising energy costs.
    ‘We are tired of waiting three days to see a doctor, or to see our kids being bullied at school and nothing – or not enough – being done about it.
    ‘We think it’s ridiculous that we are paying billions for a desal plant we don’t need. That we are paying top dollar for myki, the new public transport ticketing system we don’t want. And we’re sick of the waste, arrogance and spin of the previous government, which was in power for too long.
    ‘So, Mr Baillieu, we want you to do things differently.’
    (Families are the acid test for Baillieu, Susie O’Brien, Herald Sun, November 30, 2010)
    (Helping Victorian families will be Ted Baillieu’s big test (on line title))
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/helping-victorian-families-will-be-ted-baillieus-big-test/story-fn6yvuxe-1225963016527

    ‘The list of reasons the Coalition advanced for why people should vote against Labor was impressive and ultimately persuasive: overcrowded trains; the expensive myki debacle; congested roads; a dangerously under-resourced ambulance network; stubbornly long hospital waiting lists; distressing inadequacies in the child protection system; and on it went. Then there was law and order, which Baillieu was able to make a Coalition ”brand”. And water – the north-south pipeline fed into the backlash against Labor, and the enormously expensive desalination plant was held up by Baillieu and Ryan as a symbol of Labor excess and waste.’
    (Game over for Brumby, Paul Austin, The Age, November 29, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/game-over-for-brumby-20101128-18c9v.html

    ‘Why did these seats, picked up by Labor in the subsequent “Brackslide” election of 2002, return with such longing to the Liberals this time round? According to Bracks, the one issue Labor underestimated was the hip-pocket concerns inflamed by rising interest rates, household bills and check-out counter receipts.
    ‘”Cost-of-living issues have been bigger than anyone thought, particularly down the southeast in that corridor from Mordialloc to Carrum to Frankston to the Narre Warren area,” he said. “There are high numbers of mortgage holders and I think the interest rate rise did have an impact.”’
    (History repeats in suburban mauling, Chip Le Grand The Australian, November 29, 2010)
    (Steve Bracks sees history repeat in suburban mauling (on line title))
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/steve-bracks-sees-history-repeat-in-suburban-mauling/story-fn59niix-1225962390030

    ‘The key to understanding why the Brumby government held on in the regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong and lost badly in the outer suburbs of Melbourne – both to everyone’s surprise – can be largely explained by the fact that they kept their promise to build the Regional Fast Rail network linking Melbourne to the regional centres but failed to do anything about the abysmal standard of public transport to the outer suburbs.’
    (Labor’s loss is explained by the rail politic, Kenneth Davidson, The Age, November 30, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labors-loss-is-explained-by-the-rail-politic-20101129-18dwp.html

    ‘More than one in three Labor voters who had decided to switch to the Coalition gave ”out of touch/time for change” or ”lack of action/broken promises” as the main reason behind changing their vote.
    ‘The second-biggest factor influencing ”soft” Labor voters – those who voted ALP at the 2006 election – into changing their mind was public transport, followed by financial mismanagement and waste and then health issues.’
    (Labor’s supporters switched from ‘stale’ party, David Rood, The Age, November 30, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/labors-supporters-switched-from-stale-party-20101129-18dxf.html

    ‘It seems Victoria had enough of traffic-clogged roads, costly project blowouts such as the Myki ticketing system , trains that do not work properly and rising utility bills. But, most important, voters had had enough of Brumby refusing to acknowledge their concerns, insisting everything was fine and Victoria was better than any other state in Australia. They did not believe him.’
    (Labor’s walking wounded, Tom Dusevic, The Weekend Australian, December 04, 2010)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labors-walking-wounded/story-fn59niix-1225964971459

    ‘Local issues played their part in the 6.2 per cent swing against Victorian Labor – transport congestion; ennui with a long-term administration; and the surprise resurgence of a formerly lacklustre Opposition Leader – but this was also the first chance since the federal election for voters to pass judgment on the Labor brand. With Victorians punishing a competent state government that has presided over a sound economy, it is hard not to see the election as a referendum on the Gillard government and Labor’s failure to stay in touch with its heartland. The swing against Premier John Brumby and his administration was largely in outer suburban seats, not in the regional areas where Labor focused so much of its efforts during the campaign.’
    (Middle Australia sends a message to Labor (editorial), The Australian, November 29, 2010)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/middle-australia-sends-a-message-to-labor/story-e6frg71x-1225962358798

    ‘Until this week, the government had been travelling pretty much as well as it could have expected. There is a panoply of grievances across the community about water, public transport, energy policy, planning, roads and hospitals. In part, they are the standard-issue residue of complaints that dog every government that has managed three terms.’
    (Rewriting the rules, Shaun Carney, The Age, November 27, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rewriting-the-rules-20101126-18alu.html

    ‘The underlying problems – the matters that were switching votes on the ground – were not being dealt with in 2009 when they should have been. Dilapidated public transport infrastructure; booze-fuelled street violence; the prevalence of government interference in people’s lives (nannyism), particularly with traffic management; attorney-general Rob Hulls’s attempts at social engineering; a police union claiming crime was out of control; utility bills and cost-of-living pressures for senior citizens; the perception that Melbourne was taking water from the bush; disingenuous consultation with local communities, particularly on planning; and poor management of key organisations and leaders, often contemptuously treating them as potential media adversaries instead of positive contributors in policy formation. Small sins on their own but, combined, a one-way ticket out of government.’
    (Seven roads to ruin, George Droutsas, The Age, December 4, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/seven-roads-to-ruin-20101203-18jwh.html

    ‘Labor fought hard to defend its marginal inner-city seats, which were besieged by the Greens, where voters care little for freeways. But in the outer eastern and south-eastern suburbs where the election was ultimately lost by Labor, are roads and trains what rattled voters most? Certainly, Carney believes, they were significant. But the bigger picture, he says, is that the electorate has grown tired of spin.’
    (Shifting sands, Carol Nader, The Age, December 4, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/shifting-sands-20101203-18jwt.html

    ‘Commuters such as Greg Sheppard, a regular on the beleaguered Frankston Line, delivered government to the Coalition in Victoria this week.
    ‘NO longer prepared to tolerate a shemozzle of a train service, feeling unsafe travelling home at night and watching billions blown on what he considers politically motivated projects, English language teacher Mr Sheppard jumped on the Baillieu bandwagon last Saturday.
    ‘Ted’s travellers didn’t vote Liberal solely because of the poor quality of their daily commute, but they did see it as emblematic of the 11-year-old Labor government’s broader failure on service delivery.
    ‘They sensed John Brumby wasn’t by their side in the battle with skyrocketing utility bills, exorbitant housing costs and concerns over public safety. Whiz-bang projects such as the Wonthaggi desalination plant and the Myki transport ticketing system were seen as too much jam and not enough bread and butter.’
    ‘Mr Hudson agreed voters in his electorate blamed the government for a range of household problems. “There were cost-of-living issues that hurt us, including mortgage stress and, for seniors especially, the cost of electricity, gas and water.”’
    (Ted’s travellers rail at Brumby’s services inertia, Stephen Lunn From:? The Weekend Australian, December 04, 2010)
    (Public transport a key factor in Liberal victory (on line title))
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/public-transport-a-key-factor-in-liberal-victory/story-fn59niix-1225965404120

    ‘Melbourne’s suburban rail network has been a source of continued frustration and the logjam on its major arterial roads is blocking the efficient movement of people and freight. But Mr Brumby’s most worrying trait is his tendency to deny problems within his state, whether it is violence towards foreign students or his stubborn refusal to accept that the Office of Police Integrity is beyond repair. The broader concern is that Mr Brumby’s willingness to tolerate the sub-prime performance of the OPI, the political chicanery of his police chief, Simon Overland, and the obstinacy of the police union might point to a wider complacency and a “pride-in-Victoria” mentality that prefers to look the other way when uncomfortable facts present.’
    (The compelling case for a vote against complacency (editorial), The Australian, November 26, 2010)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/the-compelling-case-for-a-vote-against-complacency/story-e6frg71x-1225961115335

    ‘That is why there were such dramatic falls in Labor’s vote in outer Melbourne. Travel times either by road or rail in these areas are challenging and wasteful, local crime – in the streets and on the trains – is a worry, and in the new estates the burden of stamp duty is a big issue. Baillieu focused on those issues and reaped the rewards. The challenge to make good on his promises is now passed on to him.’
    (Voters show they’ll punish failure before they’ll reward success, The Age, November 29, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/voters-show-theyll-punish-failure-before-theyll-reward-success-20101128-18ce3.html

    ‘Without trust, we had nothing
    ‘IT’S a bit rich for Labor MPs to now complain about John Brumby and losing the election. All of you were asleep at the wheel for 11 years while incompetence was rewarded, money squandered, police lost control of the CBD, hospitals were overcrowded, the ambulance service functioned poorly, nothing was done on water for year after year of drought, public transport failed, roads became congested. The city is overcrowded now. We can’t cope with more people.
    ‘The trouble is gutless politicians complacently playing the party game – saying ”the Brumby government does this, or that” rather than criticising failures or lack of leadership. Labor simply can’t be trusted on its word to deliver.
    Colin Pearless, Boronia’

    ‘Weighed down
    ‘DESPITE the editorials supporting the re-election of Labor, the inescapable reality was that the millstone around Labor’s neck was very fast trains, channel-deepening, north-south pipeline, EastLink, myki, police numbers, violent crime, suspended sentences, Windsor Hotel, public transport, government spending on advertising, ministerial accountability, the size of the government’s media unit, hospital waiting lists, and ambulance bypasses (to name a few).
    ‘Given all this, I wonder why The Age doesn’t think that Victoria deserves better – because clearly Victorians think that Victoria deserves better.
    Douglas Potter, Surrey Hills’
    (Without trust, we had nothing (Letters), The Age, November 30, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/letters/without-trust-we-had-nothing-20101129-18dv3.html

    ‘IN THE wake of Labor’s disastrous performance in the state election, maybe the party will have a long, hard look at itself. Why does it now attract only about 35 per cent of the primary vote? It’s obvious that the left has deserted the party and voted with the Greens, so it has lost its ”conscience”.
    ‘It’s now viewed as the party beholden to big business and sectional interests, once the domain of the Liberals; so it has lost the middle class as well. What is left of the parliamentary party is a group of disillusioned teachers and union hacks; hardly the stuff to rebuild with.
    ‘It is time to get back to core Labor principles of health and education, areas sadly neglected during the past decade, irrespective of the spin from Spring Street.
    ‘Hans Pieterse, Narre Warren North’
    (Labor lost to the left and the right (Letetrs), The Age, November 29, 2010)
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/letters/labor-lost-to-the-left-and-the-right-20101128-18cby.html

    What key issue in every state election that I have paid attention to (i.e., since 1967) is hardly mentioned in the negatives for Labor?

  35. Madden’s closer development policies were deeply unpopular’Look at the result ion Prahran where the local groups ran a big campaign against Madden…on polling day Brumby had to avoid protesters who planned to rally against him when he went to vote

    Madden’s actions re the Windsor Hotel were also unpopular too.

  36. deblonay

    you said I confused the two. No reasonable reading of my comments could lead to that conclusion – I clearly talked about friends in suburbia as well.

    I would point out, however, that not all regional services are similarly wonderful. The Wodonga line (alas!) still remains closed, awaiting that special Ballieu magic to make it all right again.

  37. I see Peter Farris has risen to the surface again, this time in a primary advisory role on how to “get tough on crime” to the coalition’s new Attorney Journal.

    It seems that there is pressure from others to back off on some of the more draconian measures suggested by the Libs before the election. Farris’s job, on the other hand, seems to be to produce a brief arguing for the development of the toughest possible stand, with a big boost in prison development and the so-called “war on drugs”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/teds-crime-crackdown-may-not-be-so-tough-after-all-20101204-18ksd.html

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