BENTLEIGH (Margin: 6.20%)
| ALP | LIB | Swing | 2006 votes | |||
| Ordinary | 12,650 | 50.11% | 12,595 | 49.89% | 7.12% | 27,106 |
| Postal | 1,491 | 45.28% | 1,802 | 54.72% | 4.45% | 2,785 |
| Early | 1,857 | 47.04% | 2,091 | 52.96% | 3.25% | 2,223 |
| Marked | ||||||
| Provisional | 109 | 60.22% | 72 | 39.78% | 20.73% | 21 |
| Absent | 1,062 | 50.26% | 1,051 | 49.74% | 7.68% | 1,643 |
| TOTAL | 17,169 | 49.36% | 17,611 | 50.64% | 6.84% | 33,778 |
ELTHAM (Margin: 6.41%)
| ALP | LIB | Swing | 2006 votes | |||
| Ordinary | 12,382 | 50.83% | 11,980 | 49.17% | 5.94% | 27,530 |
| Postal | 1,262 | 46.59% | 1,447 | 53.41% | 2.87% | 2,497 |
| Early | 3,209 | 50.45% | 3,152 | 49.55% | 6.01% | 3,266 |
| Marked | ||||||
| Provisional | 96 | 51.89% | 89 | 48.11% | 14.78% | 6 |
| Absent | 1,234 | 56.68% | 943 | 43.32% | 4.05% | 1,775 |
| TOTAL | 18,183 | 50.80% | 17,611 | 49.20% | 5.61% | 35,074 |
BALLARAT EAST (Margin: 6.81%)
| ALP | LIB | Swing | 2006 votes | |||
| Ordinary | 13,288 | 51.49% | 12,521 | 48.51% | 5.35% | 26,866 |
| Postal | 1,331 | 48.84% | 1,394 | 51.16% | 3.23% | 2,026 |
| Early | 2,315 | 48.55% | 2,453 | 51.45% | 5.28% | 2,268 |
| Marked | ||||||
| Provisional | 158 | 54.30% | 133 | 45.70% | 2.51% | 0 |
| Absent | 1,576 | 57.94% | 1,144 | 42.06% | 5.88% | 2,236 |
| TOTAL | 18,668 | 51.41% | 17,645 | 48.59% | 5.40% | 33,396 |
MACEDON (Margin: 8.17%)
| ALP | LIB | Swing | 2006 votes | |||
| Ordinary | 15,671 | 51.21% | 14,930 | 48.79% | 7.48% | 28,429 |
| Postal | 1,505 | 48.44% | 1,602 | 51.56% | 6.47% | 2,455 |
| Early | 3,351 | 50.04% | 3,346 | 49.96% | 2.43% | 6,245 |
| Marked | ||||||
| Provisional | 139 | 62.61% | 83 | 37.39% | -12.61% | 16 |
| Absent | 1,315 | 57.73% | 963 | 42.27% | 3.27% | 1,910 |
| TOTAL | 21,981 | 51.23% | 20,924 | 48.77% | 6.94% | 39,055 |
LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | IN DOUBT | |
| Eastern Metro | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Northern Metro | 2 (-1) | 2 (+1) | 1 | |||
| South-Eastern Metro | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Southern Metro | 1 (-1) | 3 (+1) | 1 | |||
| Western Metro | 2 (-1) | 2 (+1) | 1 | |||
| Eastern Victoria | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Northern Victoria | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Western Victoria | 2 | 2 | 1 (+1) | 0 (-1) | ||
| TOTAL | 16 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Tuesday, December 14
The button was pushed today on the count for the Legislative Council, securing the Coalition its 21 seats out of 40 and wrapping up the election count as a whole. Key to the Coalition triumph was Liberal candidate Craig Ondarchie’s victory in Northern Metropolitan from the second position on his party’s ticket, producing a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. His win came at the expense of Stephen Mayne, who in the event finished fairly solidly behind the second Greens candidate (2.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent) at a point where he had hoped to stay in contention by absorbing her preferences, and the Sex Party, who with 7.4 per cent failed to stay ahead of third Labor candidate Nathan Murphy on 9.1 per cent at the second last count. At that point the second Ondarchie was far enough ahead of Murphy that there was no prospect of preferences closing the gap, with the former sneaking over a quota on preferences from Mayne. In Western Metropolitan, below-the-line votes made the difference by heavily favouring the Greens – largely because below-the-lines for right-wing minor parties who had put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference ticket tended to exhaust. The rate of exhaustion was such that Colleen Hartland won election with slightly under a quota, finishing on 16.6 per cent to Labor candidate Bob Smith on 16.2 per cent.
Saturday, December 11
As you may have noticed I’ve been less than vigilant in following the count, but those with an interest will be aware that Stephen Mayne continued to fade in late counting in terms that will almost certainly deliver the final Northern Metropolitan seat to the Liberals, securing the Coalition their upper house majority. The only remaining point of curiosity is whether Colleen Hartland of the Greens can secure re-election in Western Metropolitan, thereby achieving a status quo result for a party that had hoped for so much better. Antony Green reports all will be revealed when the button is finally pushed on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be no repeat of the 2006 error in which the Democratic Labor Party was wrongly credited with a second seat.
Monday, December 6
Stopped paying attention there for a while after the VEC started re-checking and took their existing results offline. Antony Green offers a thorough update, noting that recounting in Northern Metropolitan is proceeding slowly due to intensive scrutineering of the result that could deliver the Coalition an upper house majority. In Western Metropolitan, the tide seems to be favouring the Greens’ Colleen Hartland, who might yet retain her seat at the expense of Labor’s number three. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments still rates her the underdog.
Wednesday, December 1
Stephen Mayne has discussed his prospects at length in his email newsletter, noting he has two hurdles to clear: first to stay ahead of the Greens at what appears as count 8 in the ABC’s projection, where he is currently on 1.54 per cent to the Greens’ 1.22 per cent, and then for the below-the-line count to not upset his applecart by putting him behind Liberal and Labor at the second last count. Mayne rates himself only a 50-50 chance of clearing the first hurdle as he expects the Greens to surge as absent votes are added. I’m not sure what was added today, but the addition has seen the Greens lose ground – possibly too much for Mayne, as Kevin Bonham argues in comments, because it will mean fewer of their preferences for him if he can stay ahead. Bonham reckons Mayne will need to significantly outperform Labor in preferences from the 3170 below-the-line votes which are recorded as going to him on the ABC projection, which treats all votes as above-the-lines. Bonham, who has learned a thing or two about preference behaviour from analysis of Hare-Clark elections in his home jurisdiction of Tasmania, reckons this unlikely, and that the most probable result would indeed be a twenty-first seat for the Coalition.
In the lower house, addition of absent and other votes have seen Labor pull further ahead in Eltham and Ballarat East, to 546 and 510 votes respectively, which puts these seats and the final result beyond doubt: the Liberals have won 35 seats and the Nationals 10, with Labor on 43. I will continue updating my tables as new figures come in, but I won’t be offering any further commentary on the lower house unless something unusually interesting happens.
Tuesday, November 30
Long past time I had something to say about the upper house, with the Coalition on the precipice of majorities in both houses. The Liberals have gained a seat from Labor in Southern Metropolitan and the Nationals have gained the DLP’s seat in Western Victoria. They also look likely to win seats from the Greens in Western Metropolitan and to hold off a challenge from the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria, where their second seat had been under threat. That puts the Coalition on 18 seats out of 40 with a likely extra two to achieve a blocking majority, and the chance of getting over the line for an absolute majority of 21. The decisive factor in Northern Metropolitan will be the second last count, at which the Labor number three, Liberal number two and Stephen Mayne appear to be at almost level pegging. Mayne will win the seat if he finishes ahead of either or both, and the current ABC projection has him finishing ahead of Labor after soaking up the Greens’ surplus and an eclectic range of preferences from the Sex Party, DLP and Family First. Should he finish behind the seat will almost certainly go to the Liberals, although Labor remain at least a mathematical possibility.
In continuing lower counting, Labor’s lead has more than doubled in Ballarat East, from 166 to 343, with the addition of 657 more postals and the first 766 absents. It was the latter which made the difference, breaking 60-40 their way – not unpredictably given that most would be sourced from town voters who cast their ballots in Ballarat West. Eltham too has become slightly firmer for Labor with 795 more pre-polls gaining them a handy 53 votes, but losses on rechecking have pared back the overall improvement in their lead, which goes from 245 to 267. Bentleigh and Macedon have drifted out of the doubtful column. Rechecking and a highly unfavourable batch of 819 absent votes has further increased the Liberal lead in Bentleigh from 460 to 559. In Macedon, the addition of 419 postal votes has cut Labor’s lead from 498 to 419, but it’s probably too little too late.
Monday, November 29
9pm. Another 605 postals in Bentleigh have broken 321-284 the Liberals’ way, increasing their lead from 423 to 460. In Eltham the addition of 5730 pre-polls and 600 more postals has increased Labor’s lead from 225 to 245. I’m not sure on what basis Labor sources quoted in the ABC yesterday were expecting to lose this seat – I would rate them better than even. Another 416 postal votes have been added in Ballarat East and have broken perfectly evenly, with Labor continuing to lead by 166.
4.30pm. Labor has had a disappointing result from 2268 pre-polls in Ballarat East which have cut their lead from 388 to 166. The addition of 5111 pre-polls from Macedon has also cut their lead from 719 to 498. However, absent votes remain to be added, and in both cases they favoured Labor heavily in 2006.
Sunday, November 28
11pm. Bob Katter’s Hat in comments relates that according to an ABC report, “Labor sources expect to lose Eltham but are ‘hopeful’ on Macedon”.
6.41pm. If there are the same number of absent votes as last time, and if anything there are likely to be fewer, they would need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by 5 per cent to overturn the Liberals’ lead.
6.34pm. The VEC site has now updated, and it has the Liberal lead at 15,667 to 15,244. The Herald-Sun’s assertion that only “some postal votes” remain to be counted is at best imprecise, as no absent votes have been added – and there were 1643 of these in 2010. So what we have today is the addition of 3130 pre-poll votes which, as stated in the previous entry, have broken 1670 to 1460 in favour of the Liberals and increased their lead from 213 to 423. The table at the top of the post has now been amended to reflect this. As you can see, the notion that there would be more of these than last time and that they would be relatively favourable to Labor was quite correct, but not nearly to the extent they required. So it’s fair to say that the ABC computer, which has copped some flak over this, was right all along.
6.12pm. Boerwar in comments reports postals have favoured 1670 to 1460 to the Liberals – I’m not sure if this includes or is in addition to those counted last night, which favoured the Liberals 1072 to 1050. An update on the VEC tally room site would be nice.
6.09pm. The Herald-Sun reports that there are now merely “some postal votes” remaining to be counted, so obviously absent votes as well as pre-polls have been counted (although I fail to see how absent votes could have been assembled so quickly from every corner of the state). In any case, a very clear impression emerges that barring counting errors, the Liberal lead of about 400 is insurmountable, ending any doubts about the overall result.
5.45pm. Rod Hagen in comments hears from Twitter that pre-poll counting in Bentleigh is trending against Labor, increasing the Liberal lead from 213 to 430.
5pm. By popular demand, the VEC have announced they will be counting the pre-poll votes from Bentleigh today. In what promises to be the television event of the year, this will apparently be broadcast live on Sky News.
Saturday night
This thread will be used to follow late counting in the Victorian election, which – for those who have just joined us – promises to be a focus of fierce interest due to the possibility of a 44-44 tied parliament if everything falls Labor’s way. For now you’ll have to look elsewhere for a summary of the situation. However, below is a table which will hopefully shed some light on a few important aspects of the situation. Four must-win seats are identified in the table, of which Labor currently leads in three while trailing by 213 votes (0.38 per cent) in Bentleigh. The first row of the table shows two-party results from ordinary votes, thus excluding the postals that were added last night. To give an idea of how the remainder of the count might go, the next five rows show Labor’s two-party results on the various types of vote in 2006. The story goes that a large number of pre-polls might offer salvation here for Labor in Bentleigh, but that would seem very unlikely indeed going on the precedent of last time. However, Labor is doing slightly less poorly on postal votes than last time — their primary vote is only 1.5 per cent lower — so there might be at least something in the idea that votes cast earlier would not have copped the effects of the late swing to the Coalition. The left column shows the percentage of the statewide vote accounted for by each vote type in 2010. The bottom half of the table shows the ordinary vote turnout in each electorate, which as you may have heard was substantially lower than last time.
| ALP 2PP | |||||
| % | Bentleigh | Eltham | Macedon | Ball. East | |
| 2010 Ordinary | ? | 50.0% | 50.8% | 51.2% | 50.9% |
| 2006 Ordinary | 78.0% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 58.7% | 56.8% |
| 2006 Pre-Poll | 9.0% | 50.3% | 56.5% | 56.2% | 53.8% |
| 2006 Postal | 6.5% | 49.7% | 49.5% | 54.9% | 52.1% |
| 2006 Absent | 6.5% | 57.9% | 60.7% | 61.0% | 63.8% |
| 2006 Declaration | 0.1% | 81.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | – |
| Ordinary votes as percentage of enrolment | |||||
| 2006 | 75.5% | 74.3% | 69.1% | 73.9% | |
| 2010 | 68.0% | 64.3% | 67.4% | 66.5% | |
Finally, can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.
RH
Hmm. Do they tweet how many of the 3,000 votes have been counted?
The Labor Era is over and was over last night.
SNIP: Please see the last line of the above post – The Management.
Does anyone know why only Bentleigh is being counted and not the other close results ?
m m
swings and roundabouts. The Coalition, even before it starts, is already doomed by its inability to come to grips with the science and implications of AGW. It is only a matter of time.
So, is it looking like Newspoll was the most accurate pollster?
Oops I’m wrong, the Libs did pick up a seat in Melb W.
Twitter going nuts…
VEC provisional result = Bentleigh won by Liberal Party by 210 votes.
It’s all over folks!
Glen could be right
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/victoria-facing-constitutional-crisis-with-hung-parliament-likely/story-fn5kmqy2-1225962099246
Channel Nine says Liberals have won Bentleigh by around 400 votes
Sky just announced that the Coalition has won Bentleigh.
Libs picked up 1670 postals v. 1460 postals for Labor.
Niether party willing to call it yet but, IMHO, it is all over Red Rover and come in Blue Sky.
SNIP: Please see the last line of the above post – The Management.
Below the line percentages for N Metro:
Group A 21%, Christian 12%, Gp C (Mayne) 46%, FF 5%, CA 11%, Green 13%, ASP 11%, DLP 7.7%, ALP 2%, LIB 2%.
Winning plan for Mayne is:
1. Use Group A to beat second Green
2. Use Green, FF, DLP, Sex to beat either third Labor or third Liberal (irrelevant which)
3. Use Labor or Liberal to beat the other.
If he does 1 and 2 then 3 is a doddle.
At the moment the Group A BTL is several times the projected margin between Mayne and the second Green. Even allowing that the Green BTLs might leak, say, 50 votes, it is very doubtful that Mayne stays over the second Green on current figures. But that is very sensitive to any slight change in those figures that may occur with further counting.
Assuming that he does beat the Green, his next challenge is to haul himself from 3,000-ish votes to catch a major party candidate. Leak from the majors will be negligible so his minimum target is probably close enough to the 29,900 odd currently projected to the Labor candidate at that point. Assuming all votes are ATL he would clear that with about 3,000 to spare. In fact there will be close to 2800 BTLs in that. So on current figures if he gets over the second Green he then has a slight ATL lead over the majors and the question is whether they can both rough him up by c. 200 votes on the BTLs from Gp A, Green, FF, DLP, Sex.
If the result was based on current figures I’d say he probably doesn’t get over the Green but if he does then he could well just win. With further counting either of these hurdles could change radically in either direction. He’s a realistic chance but he shouldn’t be confident.
marky marky as a matter of interst did you vote for Labor?
Exhibit A:
(Yes I spelled Baillieu wrong.)
http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/state2010tallyroomelectorateBentleighDistrict.html
I think that this close election will cause Victoria to change to on the night counting of in electorate pre-polls like the Commonwealth changed to for the election in August.
Like I said earlier. A narrow Liberal win is probably a good result for Victoria at the moment (even though I have money riding on Labor).
It will be interesting to see how the Libs go about fixing all the problems they have highlighted.
[it is all over Red Rover and come in Blue Sky.]
More like “Come in Brown Cows munching in the highlands and ever more brown coal power generation, bye bye any major solar projects and wind generation, lets bugger the MDB if doing so hurts the Feds, and sorry, you didn’t read the small print on “public transport” (where it says “public transport = four wheel vehicles carrying between one and five people on roads built by our mates and paid for by all of you”), lets get rid of any imposts on developers and make Melbourne’s boundaries grow as fast as we can. Ooh! Look at those nice Green Wedges just ripe for a few tens of thousands of 1/6th acre blocks!”
SNIP: Please see the last line of the above post – The Management.
[It will be interesting to see how the Libs go about fixing all the problems they have highlighted.]
I’m not a betting person but if I was I’d bet big money on those problems still being around in 2014.
Mmm – still only 83.20% counted on the VEC site at 6 PM.
Rod, Baillieu is more like Hamer than Kennett, and I think he will tread carefully in his first term, since he knows that one bad by-election will produce a tied Assembly. So I don’t think those extreme things will happen just yet.
Certainly did vote for them. If i do not know what the two parties philosophical views are?
This was an election they should not have lost. But have lost due to a whopping 6 percent swing.
The Labor Party learnt nothing from 1999 in the last three years.
Seymour gone any wonder why? Not a pipeline where people were spyed on?
De salination not a small water plant but a massive overbudgeted one.
Frankston and Carrum why? Not a bypass where people again where not listened to?
On public transport they spend over one BILLION dollars on a ticketing system we do not need.
Meanwhile the trains run late, break down and are overcrowded.
And the party fobs of voters by stating new lines will be built but are not built until five years after the election promise.
The party simply thought it was invincible and lost touch with the people.
This is what annoys me.
Marky Marky
You boast you are a member of the party. I’ve never known you to be other than a carping critic of Labor, State or Federal, so why don’t you just drop out of the party and leave it to the True Believers who work their guts out at elections, and leave any criticisms to branch meetings etc.
I hope the LNP give you what you deserve, too. Now that would make me a happy man. Congratulations to you in your hour of celebration.
Rod Hagen 124.
this could be because of the melbourne weather yesterday which casued a low turnout, looks like the 80-90ish range will be the average turnout for the election which is very low
117
It does seem that the ALP attacks may have cost them the election because they helped move the protest vote to the Coalition.
aaronkirk try looking in the general direction of NSW. Brack was actually a good premier, he was better at managing the budget and delivered more in terms of sound policy in health and education than had been delivered during the kennett years.
I can think of several state and federal governement that were worst than bracks.
Feeney, this is the problem with the disease inside the party, we are not willing to take criticism and do something about it.
I would agree with the Labor attack ads in the last week regarding Bailleau, simply stupid stuff.
This is what the Libs were still doing in 1999.
I agree with Psephos views regarding Bailleau and they will tread carefully in the first four years.
marky marky lets get facts right, Myki is a more modern system than the old paper tickets from aging machines, nest you will be calling for us to go back to using Commondore 64 computers.
I would never have built the north-south pipline but i would have built the desalination plant and if need be i would build a second one out warrnambool way in turn i would then reduce the amount of water currently being used from our river system.
The trains have been in poor shape for decades and it has only been in recent years that the government as actually decided to deal with problems that have existed for decades.
you have a point there mexicanbeemer. But when Kennett became premier the state was broke and some cuts were needed to be made. but it was his arrogance to the regions that cost him his job, arguably the bracks budgets were as a result of the prudence of Kennett and Stockdale in the previous lib government and as a result bracks in the first term did increase services which was a benefit to the stater and as a consequence was re-elected in a landslide in 2002
from 2002-2006 bracks did not listen to the electorate and cannot think of one thing he did to improve victoria. and he broke promises, such as the “no toll” promise on the mitcham-frankston tollway.
i argue brumby was better at listening to the electorate but i think that some of the backlash in the ALP should be toward their former leader Bracks as there were some decision he made which still today are angrily shouted down in the electorate
and finally a lot of the swing in the eastern, south eastern seats and in regions like geelong and a seat like macedon are corrections to the extroadinarily high margins which the alp held them after the landslide in 2002
Marky Marky
You really are breathtaking! Have you been on the sauce bottle?
So, the trains run late, the trains are overcrowded, the lines will take five years to build. Oh, I see, by throwing Labor out, the trains will run on time, they will no longer be overcrowded, and the lines will be built overnight!!!
Please, give me a break from this hysterical crap!
What is your mate Ted’s policies and costings on these things? Please tell me as I’m buggared if I or the Victorian people know!!
Sorry Myki is a white elephant. And the Desalination plant is an over budgeted fiasco.
People are not interested in ticketing systems their interested in services and getting to and home from work on time and as quickly as possible.
It is services that matter not some ticketing system, yep i voted Labor because of their fantastic ticketing system. SURE!
arronkirk i agree kennett needed to make cuts and make changes that were not popular but at least as early as 1999 he should have started to change his approach.
I don’t in Melbs anymore so I don’t know how hard the public transport issue bit in the suburbs. But I do know that Melb’s PT problems are essentially insoluble, because the city is too physically big to make European style mass transit financially viable, and because middle class taxpayers, who all want to drive to work, will not pay the many billions in taxes that would be needed to build one and then run it at a loss. As The Onion reported in one of its stories: “98% favor mass transit for others.” The only way to make PT viable in Melbs is to force people to use it by banning private car commuting, and I’d like to see any politician propose that.
Yet again: can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.
138
spot on about kennett.
137
i spent a week in melbourne 2 weeks before the election and got a train from holmesglen to the city on the glen waverley line
the train arrived on time as scheduled on the timetable and arrived at flinders street on time as well. and same occured on the return trip. having to pay $10 as a student annoyed me though compared to $6 return from gold coast to brisbane i pay to go to university.
if they were serious about this ticketing smart card system they should look at the SE Queensland model, which after teething problems works really well and i have never had a problem with it
[I don’t in Melbs anymore ]
Should be I don’t live in Melbs anymore…
i shoudl correct myself i meant in 1997
Psephos,
Where’s Melbs?
marky marky
Suggestion: let’s have no ticketing system, bring back the paper tickets, and pay the conductors on board. That will surely improve efficiency and punctuality.
You have always been a troll on this site, and no amount of protesting to the contrary will convince anyone.
I’m all for criticism of the party, but let’s keep it internal and thrash it out there. Suck it up, mate!
Never said the Libs have the answers. And i do not think they do they no doubt will make it worse.
Because they do not give a stuff about public spending however it is easy to state things in a election campaign and get away with it.
And yes Labor is doing things. Maybe they should have been using their advertsing campaign budget on explaining these things instead criticising Baillea
Even assuming there are say 3000 votes still outstanding in Bentleigh (absents, unreceived postals, whatever) that leaves Labor needing 57:43. Even with absents tending to be good for Labor that’s not happening.
Incidentally the thing truth seeker pointed out in the other thread, with absents being much better for Labor than ordinaries in the Goldstein portion of the electorate at the federal election, was also true for the 2004 and 2007 federal elections, albeit not quite as strongly.
Now that the Libs are looking to be firming up in Bentleigh, it will be interesting to see what inroads they can make into the differences in Eltham, Ball East and Essendon.
46 may not be so remote after all.
Oh well. 3 out of 4 for the red team this year isn’t a bad result.
blackburnpseph
Even Albert Park could be a roughy considering that only 60% have been counted.