Victorian election live

12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.

11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.

11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.

11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.

11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.

11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.

10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.

10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.

10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.

10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).

10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.

10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.

10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.

10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.

10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.

10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.

9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:

On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.

9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.

9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.

9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.

9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.

9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.

9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.

9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.

9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.

8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.

8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.

8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.

8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.

8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.

8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.

8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.

8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.

8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.

8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.

8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.

8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.

8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.

8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.

8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.

8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.

8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.

8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.

8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!

8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.

8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.

8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.

8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …

7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.

7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.

7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.

7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.

7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.

7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.

7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.

7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.

7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.

7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.

7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.

7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.

7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.

7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.

7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.

7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.

7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.

7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.

7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.

7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.

7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.

7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.

7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.

7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.

7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.

7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.

7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.

6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.

6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.

6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.

6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.

6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.

6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.

6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.

6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.

6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.

6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.

6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.

6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,694 comments on “Victorian election live”

  1. Libs have won supposedly by 210 votes…according to Twitter.

    Most likely Labor will ask for a re-count but it’s all over.

    Premier Ted Baillieu!

  2. Those are the pre-polls; there’ll still be other postals and absentees. Absentees leant Labor at the Fed election, and won’t be counted until next week, as they need to be posted to their home electorates.

  3. [BoerwarPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 5:58 pm | PermalinkG @ 1352
    How credible were those tweets?
    ]

    From a reporter at 3AW

    [ 3AW693 3AW 693
    Heidi Murphy says Bentleigh’s declared a Liberal seat meaning the Coalition now has 45 seats. ALP disputing numbers, however #tedwins?
    4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  4. Time for Brumby to resign gracefully. No need to drag on the inevitable. I like the guy, but his comments last night and this morning have been bizarre.

  5. [James JPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:07 pm | PermalinkTime for Brumby to resign gracefully. No need to drag on the inevitable. I like the guy, but his comments last night and this morning have been bizarre.
    ]

    I love the sound of Liberal Hubris – remember not all prepolls, postals and absentees have been counted. I’d wait for those before crowing.

  6. Frank, I’m getting the impression that the pre-polls and absent votes have been counted now. Victoria has a different postals regime from other states, the details of which I’m not on top of, which means most of them are available for counting on the night or shortly after. Some postals can still trickle in in the mail in the week after polling day, but it seems Labor’s only real hope is a fairly serious error turning up in a recount.

  7. [William BowePosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:12 pm | PermalinkAlthough Lord D is probably right in saying it’s too soon for absent votes to have been fully counted, given the logistics involved in assembling them from every polling booth in the state.
    ]

    That’s what I’m basing it on.

  8. [I wouldnt be surprised if the Libs snatch another seat or so if the trend is pro-Lib in the pre-polls…]
    Quite possibly but it will be close enough to make the next election winnable for Labor if the Libs stuff up.

  9. [GaryPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:14 pm | PermalinkThe only thing we can hope for now is that the coalition doesn’t get control of the LC. It would be nice to have some brake on them.
    ]

    Somehow I feel the Victgorian Nats won’t be like their WA counterparts and be a thorn in the side of Ted – they’ll be the federal lapdog variety 🙁

  10. [William BowePosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:18 pm | PermalinkThe VEC site has updated, and it does not appear any absent votes have been added.
    ]
    Aren’t Absentee vortes opened and counted in the Central Tally room after being cross-referenced to the roll ?

  11. Roxanna,

    Note the following from the article:

    [There are still some remaining votes to be counted, including interstate and overseas postal votes and provisional votes.

    The Victorian Electoral Commission has earmarked Eltham, Ballarat East and Macedon for recounts, starting on Monday.]

    If I were a Lib I wouldn’t be poping the Champagne corks “just” yet.

  12. [1374 RoxannaPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:23 pm | PermalinkI bet they are though Frank.
    ]

    They’ll be in for a rude shock if Brumby wins cos of interstate and overseas voters who weren’t subjected to the campaign.

  13. [GlenPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:27 pm | PermalinkFrank learn to lose graciously…it’s all over
    ]

    That’s a bit rich coming from a born again Lioberal whose federal party haven’t accepted the Federal Election result 🙂

  14. Will Pike and Wynne seek re-election next time around?

    In the likely event that that is 4 years of opposition they may well not. I believe that 12 years is the service needed to qualify for a pre-2004 reform pension and that happens late next year so there is no incentive there. Pike will also be old enough to qualify for a pension next year and Wynne qualified (I presume the qualification age is 55).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronwyn_Pike

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wynne

    Would they decide to retire early triggering a by-election? Would the Liberals run in such a by-election? And if they did who would they preference? Without the Liberals running then the Greens would pick more of their voters than they did preferences with preferences directed against them.

  15. Yes Frank, you were quite correct to anticipate that no absent votes would have been added. When they are added though, they will need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by at least 4 per cent.

  16. Roxanna
    You can bet your life on very little changing. What will change will be only at the margins, nothing substantial.
    [That’s a bit rich coming from a born again Lioberal whose federal party haven’t accepted the Federal Election result]
    Actually Frank I think they are showing signs of accepting it.

  17. Glen @ 1278,

    [I wonder if Rann is popping some champers given how he managed to hold on with 48% of the 2PP. Must be glad he didnt end up like Brumby.]

    [EIGHT months ago he led Labor to a historic third term. Yesterday, Premier Mike Rann needed seven armed police guards plus two plain-clothes security officers to walk into Labor’s State Conference at the Festival Centre, as the party’s heartland supporters protested at what they claim is a sell-out by the leadership.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/old-guard-prevails-in-a-house-divided/story-e6frea6u-1225962176803

  18. The Victorian Electoral Commission has earmarked Eltham, Ballarat East and Macedon for recounts, starting on Monday.

    I think Labor are ahead in all these seats anyway?
    They aren’t any of the 13 seats the Coalition has been given as gains

  19. [William BowePosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:32 pm | PermalinkYes Frank, you were quite correct to anticipate that no absent votes would have been added. When they are added though, they will need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by at least 4 per cent.
    ]

    Yes, but as I mentioned about the interstate/overseas votes those ones haven’t had the influence of the local campaign and may in fact defy the trend.

  20. Regardless of our personal preferences, if we are going to be psephologically credible about this (and it is a psephology blog!), then I think it is reasonable to call Bentleigh as lost to the Libs and therefore the election lost. I thought as much some hours ago. As James J said, it is time to look dignified in defeat.

    Victorian Labor shouldn’t beat themselves up too much over this – the Libs may only have a one seat majority and no clear margin in the upper house. So there will be no Kennett style revolution in this parliament.

  21. One of the joys of the next 4 years will be watching the Libs explain why they haven’t made a blind bit of difference to our transport and hospital woes. They’ve given people the impression they have all the answers. Well, now we’ll see.

  22. Actually there is a danger for the ALP in expecting a kennett style era for it is no different than Liberal supporters claiming the ALP wouold automatically lead to recession

  23. I actually think the public transport’s problems can be fixed but it will as psephos pointed require a major investiment and a change in the culture of melbourne

  24. [GaryPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:43 pm | PermalinkOne of the joys of the next 4 years will be watching the Libs explain why they haven’t made a blind bit of difference to our transport and hospital woes. They’ve given people the impression they have all the answers. Well, now we’ll see.
    ]

    They will be like the WA Libs who had a 2 year honeymoon period and only now that the WA voter is starting to wake up from their intertia to discover that they’ve done SFA to Health, increased utilities to crazy levels and issues with law and order that once Labor get their house in order re Ripper who is a nice bloke, but burdened with being an unpopular treasurer during the gallop/Carpenter Govt, I reckon Barnett’s strangelhod in the opinon polls will slowly be wiped away.

  25. [mexicanbeemerPosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 6:45 pm | PermalinkI actually think the public transport’s problems can be fixed but it will as psephos pointed require a major investiment and a change in the culture of melbourne
    ]

    Solution:

    Ted should swallow his pride and ring Allanah MacTiernan and pick her brains – she is an ex Victorian, but her success in the Transport portfolio in WA would be a godsend for Victorians.

  26. [Bentleigh as lost to the Libs and therefore the election lost. I thought as much some hours ago. As James J said, it is time to look dignified in defeat.]

    Soc, our sun will start burning itself out in 1 billion years, and completely SNAFU in 4.5B years to become a white dwarf, a neutron star, or as a black hole. It’s kinda put the Victoria election in its proper perspective 😀

  27. [I actually think the public transport’s problems can be fixed but it will as psephos pointed require a major investiment and a change in the culture of melbourne]
    No government wants the transport and health systems to fail. They know it’s electoral poison. If Labor had the solutions they would have put it in to operation by now.

  28. Time to call it over, I think.

    I think that this result may, in a roundabout way, be ok for federal labor.

    A liberal government in a east coast state will give the majority of Australians access to a day to day view of how much or how little rhetoric can actually be turned into action at a state level. Cost of living re water, power etc will show the libs up as not having the solutions they claim to have. Might be a good balance to federal push for CC action and Abbotts predictible ” power price increases ” campaign.

    Anyway, congrats. to the libs on their win. Time for labor to regroup.

  29. [They will be like the WA Libs who had a 2 year honeymoon period and only now that the WA voter is starting to wake up from their intertia to discover that they’ve done SFA to Health, increased utilities to crazy levels and issues with law and order that once Labor get their house in order re Ripper who is a nice bloke, but burdened with being an unpopular treasurer during the gallop/Carpenter Govt, I reckon Barnett’s strangelhod in the opinon polls will slowly be wiped away.]
    It’s bound to happen Frank. These problems are not fixed easily if at all. Governments get found out eventually.

  30. As a Labor supporter, I congratulate Ted Baillieu on his victory. Baillieu ran a fairly clean campaign and the Libs have got there on a “backbone” decision about the Greens and capitalising on electorate concerns about cost of living issues.

    Whether he can sustain popularity when he’s the bastard in charge will be a challenge.

    Labor is not disgraced and are well poised to return in the short term. The Libs are an old person’s coalition and their ability to respond to the service requirements of a population that has grown 20% in ten or so years will challenge them. Labor has much young talent coming through right now and they won’t be out of office for long.

Comments are closed.