Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll

Roy Morgan hasn’t let itself be put off by the flak it copped with last week’s small-sample poll results from the four inner-city Labor-versus-Greens contests, repeating the exercise with only a slightly larger sample of 327 respondents. Taken together they show Labor leading the Greens 53-47, which is seven points better for Labor than last week’s poll. All told this points to a 3 per cent swing to the Greens compared with 2006, which if uniform would just tip Labor out in Melbourne, but leave them safe in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. This is indeed borne out by the seat-by-seat breakdowns, which have it at 50-50 in Melbourne, 57-43 in Richmond, 52-48 in Brunswick and 52.5-47.5 in Northcote. The margin of error on the combined result is approaching 5.5 per cent.

UPDATE: Now Morgan offers a spiffy video display of “worm”-style Reactor responses to various election ads. It finds Coalition voters were far more positive about their own side’s advertising than were Labor’s, but that Labor appeared to offer both the most (attacking Liberal spending plans) and least (the famous Baillieu Knight Frank ad) effective attack ads. Labor also did pretty well among independents and Greens with a humanised John Brumby’s fireside chat on the economy. Labor’s “meerkat” and the Liberals’ “are we there yet” attack ads failed to impress Greens and independents in roughly equal measure, but the Liberals did better with their “mouldy fruit” ad. The Greens ad, once it began laying on the hard sell, found Labor voters responding barely less positively than to ads from their own side, while Coalition and independent voters headed south.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

403 comments on “Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll”

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  1. Yes, I remember the Frankston East supplementary election very well. There was also a supplementary election for the federal seat of Newcastle after the death of a candidate shortly before the 1998 election, though as the election had delivered the Coalition a clear majority it’s less well remembered.

  2. GG, I’m afraid your attempts at 1950s allusion are making you difficult to understand. If by claiming that I am “in the closet” you are saying that you believe I am a homosexual who has yet to declare his sexual status publicly, then, for goodness sake man, say it!

    LOL

    (You know the boys down at the club like it when you talk straight…)

  4. [CHERYL WRAGG: While Mr Barber may be able to command the endorsement review committee to sack me within the space of 12 hours or something, he does not yet have the power to order the sun to shine for 24 hours a day and PV’s aren’t going to cut that and nor is wind generation at this time either.]

    I get the feeling that Cheryl Wragg has problems getting along with anyone, GG. Ex Labor Party member, ex Green candidate. Maybe she’ll try with the Libs next? Or Family First, perhaps?

  5. IW,

    You really want to talk about these things, it seems. Which is bizarre.

    I’m delighted you may think me worthy to reveal any and all of your personal secrets. But, we’ve never met. What if you can’t trust me?

    Furthermore, do you think a political blog is the place to discuss these things?

  7. For those interested in the Hazelwood issue:

    According to Environment Victoria (EV), Hazelwood, built in the 1960s, is Australia’s dirtiest power station. Every year Hazelwood produces almost 15 percent of Victoria’s greenhouse pollution (16 million tonnes per year), and guzzles 27 billion litres of water, as much as the whole of Melbourne uses in a month.

    An EV commissioned report written by energy analysts Green Energy Markets, shows that Hazelwood can be replaced as soon as the end of 2012. All while maintaining energy security, cutting Victoria’s greenhouse pollution by 12 percent and creating more jobs than Hazelwood currently provides.

    http://www.environmentvictoria.org.au/library/fast-tracking-victoria%E2%80%99s-clean-energy-future-replace-hazelwood-power-station

    EV has also produced an election briefing paper (current as at November 9, 2010) that summarises the public positions of the ALP, Greens and Coalition on the issue of replacing Hazelwood.

    http://www.environmentvictoria.org.au/sites/default/files/Hazelwood%20election%20briefing_0.pdf

  8. Pegasus,

    Dirty is an intersting descriptor.

    Have you turned off any appliances as your special contribution to less dirtiness?

  9. I got phoned polled by Morgan just before dinner tonight for the State Election.
    Could be a larger sample size than before maybe the last Morgan before the election who knows.

    He was kinda taken aback when I said I disapproved of Brumby and Baillieu.

  10. Note new update to the post on Morgan’s Reactor responses to various campaign ads.

    Glen, my guess is that they’re doing what they did last week – hit the inner city early in the week for a release on the Labor-versus-Greens seats, then bolster the sample later in the week with polling elsewhere.

  12. I think you are spot on William they were double checking my postcode as 3004 but of course I am in Prahran not Melbourne lol jokes on them that is unless they are polling Prahran?

  13. Glen,

    You realise your response will completely skew the poll because of the small samples and no one else thinking like you.

    Stand up young man.

  14. Oh that and I am putting the Independent first in Prahran but said on the poll I would vote Liberal 😀 how cheeky am I 😀

    I did say I preferred Baillieu as Premier but that I thought Brumby would win.

  17. Although since I am preferencing them it’s almost like voting for them anyway when you back an Indie so it’s not so much skewed I guess…

  19. Glen is it raining in Prahran? Hodge has got another hundred at the MCG but they now say it is delayed by rain. The BOM site indicates a massive rain and storm front crossing which must just be taking in the MCG.

    I told a pollster in 1994 that the most important thing the Liberals should do was get rid of Downer. That worked out really well for my side, didn’t it? 🙂 Thought about that smart comment for about 12 years!

  22. I just listened to Greg Barber’s performance on The World Today. It was truly hilarious listening to him not say Cheryl Wragg’s name, even when he was directly asked by the interviewer.

    [
    ALISON CALDWELL: You’ve deftly managed to do this whole interview without mentioning the name of the disendorsed candidate.

    GREG BARBER: We had 128 candidates running for every seat in Victoria. One candidate had their own review and we couldn’t really allow that to go on. We’d be sending different messages to different parts of Victoria and in fact that’s not right.

    ALISON CALDWELL: What’s that candidate’s name?

    GREG BARBER: What’s the point?

    ]

    His campaign just gets better and better!

  23. madcyril

    It went a bit like this (with apologies to Mark’s gospel)

    [But again he denied it. And after a little while the interviewer was again saying to Barber, “Surely you are one of them, for you are a Green too.” But he began to curse and swear, “I do not know this candidate you are talking about!” Immediately a rooster crowed a second time.]

  25. [Rod, I’ve said before that the Greens are Labors One Nation.]

    Yes, you have GG, though it doesn’t make it so.

    Or are you suggesting that you think Labor should do with The Greens what Howard did to rid himself of a flea in his ear by simply adopting many of One Nations policies as his own?

  27. [Rocket RocketPosted Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 8:38 pm | PermalinkWilliam, how do you ever get time to do stuff for your PhD?
    Having had a few family members do them I am amazed that you can do it!
    ]

    Plus his tutoring gig at Notre Dame 🙂

  36. i got polled by galaxy tonight, pretty basic questions on voting intentions, who would b better leader and which party deserves to win (vic election obviously)

  38. [The free ride for the extremists is over.]

    One thing that always intrigues me about politics, GG, is that so many people imagine that they are in “the centre” (hard or otherwise), and that anyone either a step to the left or the right , or to the front or the back, are therefore “extremists”.

    For me, of course, “the centre” lies somewhere around where Labor meets the Greens. For you, from what I can glean from your posts here, it is somewhere around where Labor meets the Coalition. So be it. But lets not kid ourselves. Even your position, well to the right of most Australians on many issues though it may be, can’t really be called extremist. Repeatedly using the term as you do when it isn’t applicable simply devalues it meaning when dealing with the real nutters out there.

  39. [The free ride for the extremists is over.]

    Ummmm GG the fact is Labor preference the extremists and get their preferences back….hypocritical like

  40. Rod,

    “Even your position, well to the right of most Australians on many issues though it may be”

    PB is not Australia. (Nor is Hurstbridge)

    Evidence, not assertion please.

  43. Glen,

    Pretty ordinary statement.

    Howard won without a majority. Is that illigetimate?

    At the end of the day we have preferential system. Everyone know that an the prefs fall where they be.

  44. I’m not arguing 2PP I am merely pointing out that the mellons are the only thing helping Labor win many of their seats and coming through marginals is the main reason Brumby will be returned.

  45. Funny how the ambition of some of the ALP hacks here has fallen to the extent where they are tryin to manage a 3-5% fall in the primaries to the greens as being a sign of the immenent demise of the Greens.
    I remember walking in a rally about immigration 15 years ago and one of the One Nation crowd turned to me and said, “You know what? In 15 years time you’ll all be gone and One Nation will be stronger than ever,” Ironic that 15 years later Greensboro Joffa is using the same language.

  46. [Evidence, not assertion please.]

    Ah come on, GG! You’ve never let the need for evidence get in the way of a post! 😉

    Consider your opinions on gay marriage, Brendan Fevola, for example. Need I go on?

  48. Just before I walked in this evening, Mrs Pseph had one of Tony Robinson’s ‘staffers’ cold calling asking whether she had any questions about Labor policy or any concerns that Tony could assist with – finally it got to anything at all that Tony could help with! – possibly after Saturday he will have some time on his hands and can finish the housepainting!

    the generally apolitical Mrs Pseph was struck by the whole desperation of the exercise.

    The polling must be pretty bad to be getting to that level 3 days out from an election!

  49. MCG washed out – Vics by 4 runs – 6/297 Qld 2/140 off 25 – I think this Duckworth-Lewis model is struggling with various different formats of limited overs games.

    And Barking – I remember Democrats telling me that they would one day be the largest party, with Labor and Liberal smaller groups on either side.

  50. Rod,

    Fill your boots.

    Gay marriage is one of these cute little PC ideas that will fall over once the community actually understand the matter. I recall The Rrepublic had lots of support, but failed. Put down by the hard centre.

    Fevola is entitled to the presumption of innocence and the protection of our laws like everyone else. It’s a sad day if you think that is an extremist view.

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